On Drama and Depth

[Greggory Masterson]

After the Twins succumbed to injuries late in the 2022 season,, club officials have worked to improve depth over the offseason. Will it be enough?

Image courtesy of © Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

 

On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.

I am Carlos’s bamboo ankle.

Yes, the Twins lost the second-most days to injury in the 2022 season, but that isn’t the whole truth. As a skeptic or a naysayer may remind you, players like Jhon Romero and Randy Dobnak led the team in days lost. However, the more significant issue was their lack of health down the stretch.

Somehow, the Twins still had a share of first place on September 4. No matter how they got there, they could win the AL Central—if they could keep pace with Cleveland. There were eight crucial games down the stretch against Cleveland, and the Twins won only one.

I am Alex’s shortened ulna.

Some days are the sort of day where the sun only comes up to humiliate you. In those eight games against Cleveland, the depleted Twins were without Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler (he did start two games but was on a broken foot), Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Royce Lewis, Ryan Jeffers, and Miguel Sano.

On aggregate, the lineup looked like this, more or less, presented with games started during that stretch, 2022 fWAR per 550 plate appearances, and 2022 OPS, for those of you who are statistically inclined:

2B) Luis Arraez (7, 2.9 fWAR, .795 OPS)
SS) Carlos Correa (8, 4.1, .834)
1B) Jose Miranda (8, 1.3, .751)
LF) Nick Gordon (7, 1.9, .743)
3B) Gio Urshela (8, 2.4, .767)
DH) Gary Sanchez (5, 1.5, .659)
RF) Jake Cave (7, 1.6, .644)
CF) Gilberto Celestino (5, 0.0, .615)
C) Sandy Leon (4, -2.5, .502)
Starter fWAR: 13.1; OPS: .701

Bench:
Matt Wallner (4, 0.8, .709)
Kyle Garlick (2, 0.3, .717)
Mark Contreras (2, -0.9, .441)
Jermaine Palacios (2, -6.4, .413)
Total fWAR: 6.9; OPS: .661

As mentioned, Kepler also started two games, and even Billy Hamilton got a start during that stretch. Sticking feathers up your butt does not make you a chicken, though. That group is not a winning team, nor is it even a treading-water team.

It is unreasonable to believe any team will play at a 90-win pace with six Opening Day starters and two top reserves on the IL. But fans can expect at least a fight. Club decision-makers should, too.

I am Trevor’s herniated core.

Since then, the front office has traded for Kyle Farmer and Michael A. Taylor, who started at shortstop and centerfield, respectively, for poor teams last year. They signed 2020 Silver Slugger second baseman Donovan Solano to a one-year deal. Joey Gallo and Christian Vazquez join the squad with a mostly healthy injury history.

These additions should help—in theory. If the exact string of injuries were to occur again, the lineup could look something like this in 2023 (presented with 2023 fWAR per 550 plate appearances and OPS, projected by FanGraphs ATC):

1B) Miranda (2.5 fWAR, .743 OPS)
2B) Solano (1.5, .711)
3B) Farmer (1.6, .676)
SS) Correa (4.4, .811)
LF) Gordon (1.8, .719)
CF) Taylor (1.8, .660)
RF) Gallo (2.0, .732)
C) Vazquez (2.6, .671)
DH Wallner (-1.0, .669) 
Starter projected fWAR: 17.0; OPS: .710    

Bench:
C) Tony Wolters* (0.0, .538)
UT) Willi Castro* (2.6, .648)
OF) Celestino (0.0, .642)
IF) Edouard Julien* (2.3, .698)**
Total projected fWAR: 21.9; OPS: .686
* denotes not on the 40-man roster
** Julien’s ATC projections were awful due to a comically heavy hit to his defensive metrics, so ZiPS was used here

Other players who could be plugged in here include Brooks Lee, Austin Martin, Elliot Soto, Kyle Garlick, Tyler White, and the rest of the veteran catchers. Some noticeable beneficial changes emerge here.

Wallner, Gallo, and Vazquez effectively replace Cave, Sanchez, and Leon as bats in the lineup. Taylor moves Celestino to a reserve role. The losses of Arraez and Urshela hurt, but Solano and Wallner aren’t awful replacements.

Another factor is the hypothetical development of upper-level-minors prospects. Wallner, for example, is a carryover from the rock-bottom roster, but in theory, he should be better than he was last year. Buzz around Julien is heating up, and he may be an impact bat in 2023.

That isn’t a given, though. Other guys like Lee and Martin may even play their way into a role that would move Solano or Farmer back to the bench, but it’s not prudent to count eggs before they hatch.

I am Jorge’s trick ankle.

If we were to exclude anyone with injury question marks, Correa would be out of the picture, replaced by someone like Martin. There would be some scrambling of the lineups, and it would hurt. If Lee is Major League ready, it might not hurt as much, though without pain, without sacrifice, we would have nothing, like the first monkey shot into space.

I am Royce’s twice-exploded knee.

What if every single starter on the 2023 roster is injured? How would the roster look? We can add Gordon, Gallo, Miranda, and Vazquez to the list. On the bright side, Larnach, Lewis, and Jeffers are back in the mix.

1B) Julien* (2.3 fWAR, .698 OPS)**
2B) Solano (1.5, .711)
3B) Farmer (1.6, .676)
SS) Lewis (1.7, .732)
LF) Larnach (0.2, .681)
CF) Taylor (1.8, .660)
RF) Wallner (-1.0, .669)
C) Jeffers (2.4, .684)
DH) Castro* (2.6, .648)
Starter projected fWAR: 13.1; OPS: .684

Bench:
C) Wolters* (0.0, .538)
OF) Celestino (0.0, .642)
OF) Garlick (0.6, .675)
UT) Martin (0.7, .622)
Total projected fWAR: 14.3; OPS: .664
* denotes not on the 40-man roster
** Julien’s ATC projections were awful due to a comically heavy hit to his defensive metric, so ZiPS was used here

I’m unaware of a team that can do much more than tread water without any of their starters, but this roster is one way it could shake out. Some may say that it looks better than last year’s September roster. Some may think comparing two bad teams isn’t worth considering. Others may believe that losing all hope is freedom.

I am Ryan’s contused thumb.

The goal was clear this offseason: build depth. Even if the Mona Lisa is falling apart, they must do everything possible to protect against a complete collapse, as we saw in 2022. Whoever takes the field needs to put up the fight club officials have come to expect from their guys.

It remains to be seen whether or not they built up enough depth to withstand the throes of a season. Perhaps this is what happens when you build a roster on health question marks. Perhaps no amount of depth can protect a team against losing half of their key pieces.

I’m not here to determine whether or not they did what they needed to; I just wanted to share this back-of-the-napkin mental exercise. And melodramatic prose.

I am Byron’s … everywhere.

Only after disaster can we be resurrected. It’s only after you’ve lost everything that you’re free to do anything. Nothing is static; everything is evolving; everything is falling apart.

Do you think that Falvey, Levine, and co did enough?

 

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[tony&rodney]

Your post points to the direct offseason actions of the Twins. Falvey and group added depth with experienced players and will also have a decent number of young players ready to force their way into playing time. Yes, the Twins need their top guys in the lineup to compete with the best teams but Farmer, Taylor, Solano, and others are solid depth. The roster is better suited to the long haul this year. 

[Karbo]

Only time will tell. The new schedule will probably be a little tougher since you lose out on some games against Detroit and KC, 2 teams that should be beaten. The new rules will also effect the way the game is played. Can Rocco and the Twins successfully evolve with them? Starting pitching looks to be much better, but again can or will Rocco adjust and take advantage?

[Doctor Gast]

With the new trainer & depth, any players in doubt of injury will be taken slowly & treated correctly. That should allowing our key players be healthy towards the end of the season.

[Dave The Dastardly]

Sounds like the Charge of the Light Brigade.

Once more onto the breach?

[Greggory Masterson]

1 hour ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

Sounds like the Charge of the Light Brigade.

Once more onto the breach?

Well, last year's reserves certainly weren't the Heavy Brigade.

Edit: Charge of the Light Hitting Brigade is a nice name for last year's September roster.

[Whitey333]

Interesting article.  Well done. Good take on the injuries and how losing certain players who didn't really contribute at all due to long term injuries boosts up that total to second most injured team.  I was much more concerned about how many of the younger players proved they weren't ready for MLB.  But I am starting to buy some of the hype on the prospects.  Some of them appear to have bright futures.

[saviking]

Thanks, that was a good exercise to go through. I would have had Larnach higher up the pecking order however. I haven't given up hope he will make the opening day roster especially if Gordon's high ankle sprain keeps him out .. Those can take up to 4 weeks to completely heal if bad enough ..

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, Greggory Masterson said:

Well, last year's reserves certainly weren't the Heavy Brigade.

Edit: Charge of the Light Hitting Brigade is a nice name for last year's September roster.

Charge of the Light Brigade resulted in heavy British casualities and no military gain.  It was a futile failure.  

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

Yes they did enough.  Our depth should be adequate to support at least the level of injuries we had last year.  Hopefully we would not have anything worse than that from an injury perspective.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

In your post, Jeffers needs to be added to the first list of 2023 on the bench. Good work by the Twins FO and good article by you. 

[Greggory Masterson]

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

In your post, Jeffers needs to be added to the first list of 2023 on the bench. Good work by the Twins FO and good article by you. 

I appreciate it! I excluded Jeffers because he was injured during the Cleveland games in September

[silverslugger]

Very insightful write up.  

[tarheeltwinsfan]

OK I understand. Thank you. It is a good article.

4 hours ago, Greggory Masterson said:

I appreciate it! I excluded Jeffers because he was injured during the Cleveland games in September

OK I understand now. Thank you for a good article.

[joefish]

Which should be better, playing an injured starter, or playing his backup?