Christian Encarnacion-Strand making loud noise.

https://www.mlb.com/news/christian-encarnacion-strand-impressing-with-loud-power?partnerId=zh-20230304-844026-mlb-1-A&qid=1026&utm_id=zh-20230304-844026-mlb-1-A&bt_ee=LGfhrWvHCzGp%2BKSiEcD1hNSOsjV%2BwaiMco%2FPmxPC2obVzWyjRjcIm7AFGiHTPvCG&bt_ts=1677940998229

Unless he turns into a perennial all-star, I am fine with this for the time being, and good luck to him.  We turned quality hitting (mainly) into quality pitching (though I don't like the injury risk). which is usually a winning trade.  I'm not sure where on the field he would have played for the Twins, and slotting a young guy at DH very early has its problems.  Not every trade should be judged by whether we fleeced the other team - we redistributed our talent pool with that trade.  Time will tell.

Watching E-S, Julien, and Martin play for Wichita was fun last year. I hope this guy gets his opportunity because he swings the bat impressively.

Given the first rationale for the deal was for Mahle to lead the way to a division title and at least one playoff victory last season, the trade has been a disaster for the Twins to this point. If Mahle is healthy this year, the trade may end up working out for us and possibly both teams. But that’s a big if. 

2 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Given the first rationale for the deal was for Mahle to lead the way to a division title and at least one playoff victory last season, the trade has been a disaster for the Twins to this point. If Mahle is healthy this year, the trade may end up working out for us and possibly both teams. But that’s a big if. 

Agreed. I hated that they dealt him but it's gonna take 30 starts from Mahle for this trade to not be an L.

2 minutes ago, rwilfong86 said:

Agreed. I hated that they dealt him but it's gonna take 30 starts from Mahle for this trade to not be an L.

I so have the under on 30 starts and/or 150 innings. Hope I’m wrong. 

Just now, Nashvilletwin said:

I so have the under on 30 starts and/or 150 innings. Hope I’m wrong. 

I wouldn't be surprised but I hope that isn't the case. Between Mahle, Gray, Lopez, Maeda and Ryan, Mahle is the one I think will go down first with an injury that causes him to miss significant time.

So they should have not added a pitcher? 

It's good for him to be doing well with the Reds.  You want trades to be win-win.  We just need our side of the trade to work out this year.  Maybe we could judge it based on the sound of the catcher's mitt for Mahle compared to the sound from the crack of the bat for CES :-)

CES was down the depth chart for Twins.  He could very well turn into a star, but he has many flaws. He is mainly just a bat, as his defense is not good.  He has struck out at a high level, not crazy, but it generally goes up as you face higher level pitching. If he stayed on the Twins, he would be like the 3 or 4th ranked 3rd baseman on our prospect list.  I wish him all the best, but do not just compare how he does to Mahle for the Twins, but how does he do to other players we kept. 

On 3/5/2023 at 12:16 PM, Mike Sixel said:

So they should have not added a pitcher? 

No one said that. But the Twins gave up a lot and only got 16 crappy innings (so far). A lot of moves are defensible but this FO has constantly made moves that didn't work. And some point, results should matter.

51 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

But the Twins gave up a lot and only got 16 crappy innings (so far).

I didn't like Mahle's injury history when the trade was announced or how it flared up for us, either.  But let's not go overboard with terms like crappy.  First game he went the first 4 innings facing the minimum 12 batters. He gave up a solo homer in the fifth, and if the knock on Rocco had been true that would have been the end of his day.  Instead he pitched the sixth and gave up two more homers but retained his composure enough to finish the inning, and was the pitcher of record for the win.  Next game, he threw six shutout innings.  This performance for the Twins through two games is not crappy - an ERA of 3 on the nose.

Next game, he pitches 2 no-hit shutout innings then comes out due to injury immediately after striking out a batter.  He misses a start or two.  When he comes back in September, he has a terrible bottom of the first, and completes another inning without a score, and then is shut down for the rest of the season.

I'm disinclined to view that final game as having any predictive power whatsoever. Even if you do, that amounts to exactly 2 crappy innings out of those 16, plus one additional inning with a solo homer.  Emilio Pagan should be green with envy.

View the trade however you like (I remain skeptical) but let's not exaggerate, in the evaluation of what he produced.

1 hour ago, gunnarthor said:

No one said that. But the Twins gave up a lot and only got 16 crappy innings (so far). A lot of moves are defensible but this FO has constantly made moves that didn't work. And some point, results should matter.

Montas also got hurt, and Castillo cost way more. That was the choice, Mahle or nothing. 

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Montas also got hurt, and Castillo cost way more. That was the choice, Mahle or nothing. 

Fine. They still get graded on it. They made a move that didn't work. Again. 

4 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

No one said that. But the Twins gave up a lot and only got 16 crappy innings (so far). A lot of moves are defensible but this FO has constantly made moves that didn't work. And some point, results should matter.

If that's the way we evaluate it...Cincinnatti has only gotten 100 PA, and a 650 OPS out of the trade so far. How do we know yet if that's "a lot"?

I have no problem trading two of at least 5 (more like 6)  22-26 year-old hitting prospects we were sitting on that are vying for playing time at 3rd base or first base. Don't know if we traded the correct 2...but we certainly don't know yet. Not trading some of that log jam for pitching was the worse option they could have taken, IMO.

3 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

No one said that. But the Twins gave up a lot and only got 16 crappy innings (so far). A lot of moves are defensible but this FO has constantly made moves that didn't work. And some point, results should matter.

That's the risk you take when making those kinds of trades. You take a shot. You give up too much to get help. The Twins insisted on guys with more than just a two month window. Hopefully Mahle is healthy, but they traded from positions of strength for a guy who, when healthy, is a solid #2. Miranda was the future at 3B. 

That made Steer expendable. And CES is a DH, so while he can mash, he really can't play in the field. That's not worthless, but it is what it is. 

Did they give up too much? Sure, they gave up their #6, #12 and #20 prospect at the time of the deal. 

I hated to lose both him and Steer.

Jeepers, I hope Mahle doesn't turn into Ernie Broglio...

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/brogler01.shtml

Ideally, you would like to have the trade work out for both sides, especially if it is in the other league as in this case.  That way, when you want to trade again you have some takers, instead of people who run the other way when you are dangling a trade chip.  None of these players (Mahle included) have done nearly enough to declare this trade (and a lot of other ones) a success or a failure. 

As to the Twins getting fleeced all the time, I'm not sure that's really the case.  If it were there would be lots of guys around the league that we would say we desperately want back.  Historically, the Twins have made some pretty good trades over the years.  Trading Pierzynski for Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser. . . now there was a fleecing!  Let's do that again. 

Tyler Mahle's shoulder is a concern, but the other risk is that Cincinnati sold high on him. Remove the fluky 2020 season from Mahle's career log and his overall career will look less impressive. 

Instead of deciding whether Mahle is a #2 or a #3, I will call him a 2.75, a tick better Jake Odorizzi, who was gotten for much less. If Mahle can give the Twins 30 starts in 2023 with a 129 ERA+ like Odo gave the Twins in 2019, and the Twins are competing for the division this year, then bazinga. 

Let's maybe wait until, I don't know,  May 1 to declare the loss of E-S to be an epic failure, OK? Orlando Arcia hit some balls pretty hard, too. Mahle might have a couple of pitches left in his shoulder.

I didn't like losing CES because I think he's a potential big bat at DH and 1B. And I liked Steer as a good utility player and bat. But in the grand scheme, with AK and Miranda, and Lee, and Lewis, Larnach, and Julien, I'm not sure I'm disappointed in losing a couple prospects that MIGHT turn out for what's on hand that MIGHT turn out for a quality SP.

Mahle is exactly at the right time and place in his career, experience and stuff, out of Cincinnati, where he might just be ready to establish himself as a legitimate top of the rotation piece, if not a #1. It's up to him to prove it. And it's up to the Twins to re-sign him. 

This was the one trade last year that really bothered me.  I hope we don't live to regret it.

 

 

On 3/6/2023 at 4:12 AM, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

It's good for him to be doing well with the Reds.  You want trades to be win-win.  We just need our side of the trade to work out this year.  Maybe we could judge it based on the sound of the catcher's mitt for Mahle compared to the sound from the crack of the bat for CES :-)

I don't know if I want win/win because we compete against the Reds and against everybody else.  Win/lose would seem to be the better outcome. 

On 3/4/2023 at 3:44 PM, tony&rodney said:

Watching E-S, Julien, and Martin play for Wichita was fun last year. I hope this guy gets his opportunity because he swings the bat impressively.

You in Wichita too? Fun group to watch, I’m in Goddard. 
 

On topic, we should hope the guys we send away have glimpses of success, it will help credibility when we trade the next one. Seriously, where would he slot in the depth chart?  This front office were supposed to be pitching guys but it turns out they have really been good at finding hitters for the most part.  Work it with what you have, anyone drafted after round 2 last year or this year is already on the block. 

Also, he homered off three guys who will be bagging groceries in a couple a weeks.

Couldn't help it...

13 hours ago, jkcarew said:

If that's the way we evaluate it...Cincinnatti has only gotten 100 PA, and a 650 OPS out of the trade so far. How do we know yet if that's "a lot"?

I have no problem trading two of at least 5 (more like 6)  22-26 year-old hitting prospects we were sitting on that are vying for playing time at 3rd base or first base. Don't know if we traded the correct 2...but we certainly don't know yet. Not trading some of that log jam for pitching was the worse option they could have taken, IMO.

I don't mind the concept of "win-now" trades and I was in favor of both the Gray trade and the Mahle trade. But we gave up Steer, CES, and an arm in Hajjar for 1.5 seasons of Mahle with the expectation that we'd be a playoff team. Instead, so far, the result has been bad. We finished below .500 and Mahle had shoulder problems. That's not good. Even if trades make sense, they need to start paying off. 

More power to him. I make that deal for Mahle every single day of the week. I have zero doubt the Twins ended up with the best player in that trade, and it's really not all that close.

16 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

I don't mind the concept of "win-now" trades and I was in favor of both the Gray trade and the Mahle trade. But we gave up Steer, CES, and an arm in Hajjar for 1.5 seasons of Mahle with the expectation that we'd be a playoff team. Instead, so far, the result has been bad. We finished below .500 and Mahle had shoulder problems. That's not good. Even if trades make sense, they need to start paying off. 

I mean your argument is basically that the Twins need to be able to see the future. Luis Castillo had missed 5 more starts before the deadline than Mahle had, but he didn't get hurt for Seattle. Mahle had come back from his injury and was pitching with no problems before the trade. Him getting hurt after the trade can count against the FO in your head, but it doesn't make any logical sense to me. The team finishing below .500 because a bunch of other guys got hurt, too, shouldn't play into the trade grade for Mahle. 

It's entirely possible for the trade to have been just fine (I think it was exactly what FOs try for when they make trades- news flash: FOs aren't actually trying to "win" trades like fans want them to, they're always looking for fair trades), but for the outcome of the season to have been disappointing. They don't have to be tied together. The implosion at the end of the year because of the incredible amount of injuries they suffered was brutal, and not fun at all. But that doesn't make giving up 2 mid-level position prospects who were blocked by multiple players in our own system, and a decent arm with mid-rotation upside, of which the Twins have plenty, a bad trade. The trade made sense, and is the kind of trade they should make regularly, but the season didn't go how they wanted for reasons completely outside of the trade itself. I don't get bashing the trade because of things that have nothing to do with the trade.

I applauded this FO for taking the unprecedented risk at the deadline to assist in a playoff push.  It didn'y work, but you have to take that risk if you want to contend(especially if your pitching development fails as badly as Falvine's).  Mahle is a potential ace or at least a solid #2 starter, barring injury. This is exactly what mgt. should be doing - to improve a good team(barring injuries) enough to make the playoffs.  When did Ryan ever do this in all his years?

But(and it's a big BUT), if Falvey doesn't resign this guy, then it was a poor trade.  Assuming Mahle is relatively healthy, he, as well as Gray, should both be signed to longer term contracts, given the dearth of playoff success and minor league pitching development in the Falvey era.  If not, this trade can fairly be criticized.

I definitely liked watching CES hit, but he was not a prospect I felt anything bad about losing in a trade for Tyler Mahle, even if the Twins only got a mixed bag of 16 innings out of that return.

I honestly don't think there will be any reason to fret about losing CES in the future. I disliked Hajjar being a part of that package more than CES.