Saints Setting Up for Loaded Rotation

[Cody Christie]

The Twins added depth to the big-league pitching staff, and one of the biggest beneficiaries might be the Triple-A rotation. St. Paul is setting up to have a rotation full of the team's top pitching prospects waiting for their call back to the big leagues.

Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints

Saints fans can be excited about the amount of talent projected in St. Paul to start the 2023 season. Many of the team's top prospects are closing in on the big-league level, including multiple starting pitchers that debuted in 2022. Here's a look at who could populate the Saints' pitching staff on Opening Day. 

Trio At the Top: Bailey Ober, Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson
Ober was potentially pushed out of the Twins rotation after the team acquired Pablo Lopez from the Marlins. However, he is only one injury away from being back at the big-league level. Last season, Ober made 11 starts (56 innings) for the Twins and posted a 3.21 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and a 51-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He missed a large chunk of the season with a groin injury and has pitched fewer than 100 innings in all but one professional season. Ober will be in St. Paul for a short time with injury questions surrounding multiple starters on the big-league roster. 

Varland is the first Twins pitcher to win back-to-back Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Year since Jose Berrios. The St. Paul native changed his arm action after joining the Twins organization, improving his entire pitching repertoire. As a 24-year-old, he dominated the upper minors with a 3.06 ERA and a 10.4 K/9 in over 126 innings. He got a brief taste of the big leagues at the end of 2022 with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in five starts. Varland might not profile as an ace, but the Twins believe he can fit into the middle of the team's rotation for the majority of the next decade. 

Woods Richardson has the highest ceiling of any pitcher on this list and is coming off his best professional season. The Twins sent him back to Double-A, a level he struggled at in 2021, and he posted a 3.06 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and 9.8 K/9. He performed even better after his promotion to Triple-A, lowering his ERA to 2.21 and posting a 38-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His walk rate had been a concern in 2021 (5.7 BB/9) but returned to form with a 3.0 BB/9 last season. Only one pitching prospect ranks higher than SWR in the Twins Daily Top Prospect Rankings. 

Options to Fill Out the Rotation
The Twins have a variety of directions to go when it comes to filling out the rest of the starting rotation. Some of these decisions will be based on health and injuries, while others will be based on the team's long-term role for the pitcher. Are they a starter or a reliever? 

Josh Winder is in the mix for a starting role, but he just started throwing bullpens this week after dealing with shoulder issues in the offseason. His shoulder has bothered him for multiple seasons, so it might be time to move to a bullpen role. Ronny Henriquez is one of the youngest pitchers on the 40-man roster, and the team likely wants him to continue to start games. Last season, Cole Sands split time between starter and reliever, so his best path back to the big league might be a multi-inning reliever.

Randy Dobnak, Brent Headrick, and Jordan Balazovic are also interesting names to consider at Triple-A. Dobnak missed time over the last two seasons with a finger injury, and he is no longer on the 40-man roster. Expectations don't need to be high for him, but there is a good chance he will return to the MLB level if his finger injury is behind him. Balazovic is currently recovering from a broken jaw after being punched at a Fort Myers bar. His build-up to the season will be behind other pitchers while he waits for the injury to heal. Headrick had a breakout season in 2022, and the Twins hope he can continue to build on that success. 

What are your thoughts on the Triple-A rotation? Which players fill the final spots? Who will have the most significant impact on the Twins in 2023? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[jorgenswest]

I hope the pitchers with the most upside get the innings and reps of a pitcher in a starting role. I don’t think they need to prepare for a bullpen role by pitching out of the bullpen in the minors. The consistent reps are more valuable.

The answer to the question starter or reliever is an easy one. If the pitcher has league upside of a high leverage reliever keep starting them in the minors. In this case the starts have to go to the pitchers with the most upside. After the top three might be Henriquez and Balazovic when they are healthy. There probably won’t be a day where the Twins top 10 starting pitchers are healthy so the Headrick, Sands and Winder will have plenty of starts. David Festa might find his way to St. Paul at some point also.

[Otaknam]

Finally some depth that will give the team a picture of where they are at once free agents like Gray and Maeda potentially leave after this year. 

[miracleb]

Ober will start the season with the big club (if he is healthy.)  I don't know that the starters at AAA will be as impressive as we are hoping.  I can easily see the Saints being a .500 team.......

[strumdatjag]

There is so much talk here about trading for a relief pitcher or signing one of the remaining free agents.   Like Winder, others on this list should be considered for relief roles.  Randy Dobnak and Cole Sands are likely additions to that list.   

[High heat]

2 hours ago, miracleb said:

Ober will start the season with the big club (if he is healthy.)  I don't know that the starters at AAA will be as impressive as we are hoping.  I can easily see the Saints being a .500 team.......

Wow really!?  
 

5 legit mlb prospect a few with some nice mov inning already on the starting staff and a lineup with Larnach, and Martin Harris and Tyler white.  Michael Helmen put up good AAA numbers last yr as well.  
 

I have a feeling the Saints early on will be very good and exciting team to watch.

[gman]

I think our triple A staff will be as good a staff as any we've had since I can't remember. We'll also have numerous everyday players working towards a job on the big league roster. Some may start the year at double A, but that may only be because there isn't a triple A opening.

[roger]

Agree with your statement, Cody, that the Saints starting rotation should be good...very good.  And isn't it exciting that they are younger prospects and not older AAAA guys picked up over the winter?

If what I read about the incident was correct, must comment on your comment about Balazovic being "punched at a Fort Myers bar."  That gives us the impression it was a 'bar fight.'  What I read was that he was walking down the street when he met someone who punched him twice with the second punch the one that broke his jaw.  Yes, he was near a bar, but there was no indication he or the other person were in it. 

When I first heard of the incident, I thought that was dumb on his part.  Yet, the article stated that the police are searching for the person who hit him who if found, will presumably be charged.

 

[Doctor Gast]

47 minutes ago, High heat said:

Wow really!?  
 

5 legit mlb prospect a few with some nice mov inning already on the starting staff and a lineup with Larnach, and Martin Harris and Tyler white.  Michael Helmen put up good AAA numbers last yr as well.  
 

I have a feeling the Saints early on will be very good and exciting team to watch.

I share your sentiment High Heat. Very impressive rotation with Ober, Varland, SWR, Dobnak and Headrick with Sands as a spot SP. Later to be joined by Balazovik & Winder.

And the line up of Larnach, Julien, Martin, Wallner,  Helman and maybe Kiriloff will rehab some before being called up. Lee should be up to AAA before you know it. Saints should storm AAA. 

[mnfireman]

So now the conversation has turned from "where is the pitching pipeline" to "holy crap, the Saints rotation is loaded with more on the the way." LOL. Somedays this site cracks me up!! Seriously though, this is a good problem to have given the injury history of some of the MLB rotation. 

[AceWrigley]

56 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

So now the conversation has turned from "where is the pitching pipeline" to "holy crap, the Saints rotation is loaded with more on the the way." LOL. Somedays this site cracks me up!!

Never under estimate our willingness and ability to over react to just about anything. 😀

[h2oface]

1 hour ago, roger said:

If what I read about the incident was correct, must comment on your comment about Balazovic being "punched at a Fort Myers bar."  That gives us the impression it was a 'bar fight.'  What I read was that he was walking down the street when he met someone who punched him twice with the second punch the one that broke his jaw.  Yes, he was near a bar, but there was no indication he or the other person were in it. 

When I first heard of the incident, I thought that was dumb on his part.  Yet, the article stated that the police are searching for the person who hit him who if found, will presumably be charged.

 

Same. At least that is Balazovic’s story on record.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, mnfireman said:

So now the conversation has turned from "where is the pitching pipeline" to "holy crap, the Saints rotation is loaded with more on the the way."

And these are the same people posting these wildly divergent opinions from one day to the next?

[strumdatjag]

7 minutes ago, h2oface said:

Same. At least that is Balazovic’s story on record.

I just want to know if the other guy was a marshmallow salesman. 

[ashbury]

4 hours ago, strumdatjag said:

I just want to know if the other guy was a marshmallow salesman. 

The marshmallow industry isn't the cutthroat business it once was.  These days, company reps are almost universally nice guys.  Please discard your outdated stereotypes.

[h2oface]

1 hour ago, strumdatjag said:

I just want to know if the other guy was a marshmallow salesman. 

This one is flying over my head. I must be out of the marshmallow loop. Please fill me in on what I am missing.

[Nine of twelve]

6 minutes ago, h2oface said:

This one is flying over my head. I must be out of the marshmallow loop. Please fill me in on what I am missing.

Google Billy Martin Hotel Sofitel.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Nine of twelve said:

Google Billy Martin Hotel Sofitel.

You know what?  Googling simply "marshmallow salesman" turned up all you need to know on the first hit, at least when I tried.  

[Scott51104]

Billy: "You want s'more of this?"

[strumdatjag]

I have created a Stay-puft Marshmallow Monster.  

[DocBauer]

The St Paul rotation looks awfully enticing! Ober is just too damn good to be there! But he might be to start the season to just stay stretched out and ready to come back up. Might be unfair, but there isn't always room for everyone DAY ONE, and we know how these things work out. 

Until/unless I hear something different, I'm going to believe Balazovic's account. Wrong time, wrong place, crazy thing happened on the way to do whatever he was doing. Maybe he should have already been back at the facility, but I can't fault anyone for arriving early to camp, and then going out for a little fun. But unless there is more to the story, what I care about is him getting healthy again. From everything I've read and heard, he probably should have been placed on the IL early last year. His knee wasn't quite right. It screwed up his landing point, mechanics, velocity, and just about everything else. The fact he finally felt "normal" the last month or so of 2022 and suddenly looked like his old self gave me real hope for this year. And now he gets a late start. Stinks! Instead of a fresh re-start and maybe being ready a couple months in to the season, we're talking mid year or second half. I'm disappointed, but not sure I care all that much. As a top 100 prospect as recently as the beginning of 2022, what I care about is him being 100%, back in a groove, and being ready by the second half and priming himself for 2024.

But let's just take Ober out of the St Paul rotation. Balazovic will be there, though potentially arriving a bit late. Even then, SWR, Varland, and Henriquez will be there. So should Winder, ramped up over the next 4 weeks to get ready. And then there is Dobnak. Henriquez may be destined for the pen, but not yet. Very young, give him IP to just work on his stuff. Winder was great in 2021 before he had a shoulder issue. As a rookie in 2022, he looked good and earned a spot as first a middle RP, and then a SP. Some of his final numbers weren't great, some were solid. The Twins have brought him along slowly...like a few others...after working at building up his shoulder this "normal" offseason. Four weeks from now, he will hopefully be good to go and be in the Saints rotation. Short term memory has Dobnak not very good following his finger injury and a poor 2021. Longer memory will have him skyrocketing through the Twins system and flashing in 2019 before following up with a very solid 2020. If Dobber is actually healthy and ready to go, he is very likely to be in the Saints rotation to get IP, help them, very possibly being a back end rotation option for the Twins at some point, especially considering ML experience. He also might transition to being a bullpen option. It's very likely he will be bypassed by so many good, young arms that any future ML success will be elsewhere. But if he's in the St Paul rotation, and might be the Twins #8-9-10 option, things are looking very good!

Sands MIGHT be in the Saints rotation, based on need, but I think he should/will be moved to the pen very soon. He can throw harder there, concentrate on his best secondary stuff, and might be a real help in the middle innings at some point soon.

Headrick is a guy I have my eyes on. He had a nice breakout season in 2022, and has had a solid start thus far in his first Twins ST. But less than a half season at AA and a numbers crunch tells me he begins this year at AA, and that makes sense to me.

OFF/ON topic, the St Paul pen is very much in flux. Some options will simply be cut, and some will be at Wichita. And someone might just sneak their way on to the Twins opening day roster. But a few names to consider are Ortega, Santana, Hoffman, Coulombe, Sanchez, Laweryson, Murphy, Stewart, Beck, De Leon, Nordland, Rodriguez, Schulfer, Bentley, Funderburk, Neff. And there's another handful of names I didn't include because even I can't keep up with who is who when it comes to all the milb team signings. Again, some won't be heard from. Some are just AAA depth pieces, who might see time in the rotation here and there, but figure best in the Saints pen. But guys like Ortega, Santana, Hoffman, Coulombe, Sanchez, Rodriguez, Laweryson, Schulfer, Bentley, Beck, and Funderbrurk are recent additions, previous helping arms, or guys we've seen slowly making their way up through the system. 

No top prospects there. And a lot of names to forget as quickly as you read them. Ortega, Santana, Hoffman, Coulombe, Laweryson, Bentley, Schulfer, and Funderburk are names you should know, however. An interesting mix of veterans and still relatively young arms with a chance, along with others, that should provide St Paul with a quality pen to back up the potentially excellent SP staff. A couple of them might see their way to the Twins this year.

Pitching should NOT be a problem for the Saints this year.

[Rosterman]

Pitching should NOT be a problem (as well as outfield) for the Saints this year.

Even names like Jose de Leon and Dereck Rodriguez. Does Fundeburk start at AA (as well as Balazovic). There's a couple more "starting" candidates on the minors free agent signing sheet.

What is lacking is 40-man roster names to fill out a Twins bullpen that could be in need at some point. Is there more than 1-2 rotating places left on the 40-man (barring mroe i njuries) that will also allow a third catcher if need calls.

The best route to the majors for many of these guys - Sands, Winder, Varland, Dobnak - might end up being able to egt guys out at the major league level in the long relief role, and then also being available for that spot start when needed, allowing the Twins to just bring up "a relief arm" when able to add that double-header player.

What is nice to see at AAA and AA is many names developed by the Twins that are pushing their way towards consideration by the Twins, if not this year...next year.

[FlyingFinn]

The projected AA rotation in Wichita is looking exciting as well - Headrick, Enlow, Festa with Raya probably joining later in the year.

[miracleb]

Varland and SWR in yesterday's game is why I think the Saints will be a .500 team.  Give them some time...you can't expect them to be AAA all-star caliber yet.....which seems to be what a lot of TD is thinking.....

[terrydactyls]

46 minutes ago, miracleb said:

Varland and SWR in yesterday's game is why I think the Saints will be a .500 team.  Give them some time...you can't expect them to be AAA all-star caliber yet.....which seems to be what a lot of TD is thinking.....

Predictions for an entire team formulated from one inning each by two different pitchers from a very early spring training game?  

[miracleb]

Not predictions but.....confirmations.......

******************
 

terrydactyls  22 hours ago, miracleb said:

Varland and SWR in yesterday's game is why I think the Saints will be a .500 team.  Give them some time...you can't expect them to be AAA all-star caliber yet.....which seems to be what a lot of TD is thinking.....

Predictions for an entire team formulated from one inning each by two different pitchers from a very early spring training game?  

[TC_WV]

Chad Donato was in AAA rotation all season last year for the Astros, Where does he fit in here?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

10 hours ago, miracleb said:

Not predictions but.....confirmations.......

******************
 

terrydactyls  22 hours ago, miracleb said:

Varland and SWR in yesterday's game is why I think the Saints will be a .500 team.  Give them some time...you can't expect them to be AAA all-star caliber yet.....which seems to be what a lot of TD is thinking.....

Predictions for an entire team formulated from one inning each by two different pitchers from a very early spring training game?  

Confirmation of what?

[miracleb]

Confirmations that the pitching staff for St Paul is not all-star caliber...which a lot of TD thinks they will be......

[nicksaviking]

On 3/5/2023 at 8:01 AM, miracleb said:

Varland and SWR in yesterday's game is why I think the Saints will be a .500 team.  Give them some time...you can't expect them to be AAA all-star caliber yet.....which seems to be what a lot of TD is thinking.....

Going from the MLB to AAA is a tough jump in competition.

Seems weird though that those two in particular need to be all star caliber for the Saints to be .500 when most of that roster has MLB experience, some with quite a bit of MLB experience.

Also, with apologies to the Saints die-hards, I don't much care what their record is. And as usual with AAA teams, the better the players are, the worse the record is because the players keep getting called up and the roster suffers instability.