SWR and Ober are probably both ready to pitch up here if needed.  I am much more worried about the pen than the starters.  Twins have more depth than they have ever had.  Plus position wise they have Julian, Lewis(midseason), Lee (may be ready), plus maybe late this year or next year Martin, plus Larnach and others maybe coming.  I feel great about the depth, and just hoping things go well. 

3 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Yeah, most guys pitch into their 40s, win multiple Cy Young awards in their mid-late 30s, and are essentially a lock for 30+ starts (your favorite stat!) every year. Definitely not an outlier. 

He hasn't done it once in a ST game, and there's doubt he'll be ready by opening day, but I guess that's just like, my opinion huh. Yep, I think turning to a guy that was replacement level (if even that) days into ST because your 1B isn't likely to be playing games until mid March at the earliest means the Twins were probably invested pretty heavily in Kirilloff. Crazy right? 

Unless you think the Twins won't need that 6th man, they're relying on a healthy Ober in either situation, and if he can't go the result is the same. "Who have already debuted," that's a cute spin. You mean the 31 career innings combined between Varland and SWR? 

17 starts for Ober is essentially asking him to throw 90ish innings, and he's eclipsed that mark exactly one time in 5 professional seasons. That alone seems kinda crazy. Then SWR and Varland each need to contribute that many productive innings? Yeesh. 

We can have some more fun with numbers and use the median rather than the mean. 25 (Gray), 27 (Ryan), 24 (Mahle), 21 (Maeda - his average was 22 not 25), 21 (Lopez) for 118 starts; a whopping 8 more than last year with Paddack going down in his 5th start. 

I'm neutral on Varland and SWR. Worthy of a look isn't the same thing as being able to step in and consistently get ML hitters out. 

Fine, Kirilloff is the one that won't start the season with the Twins. Still an injury concern they aren't relying on. I've literally said 1 of those 2 won't start with the team and you continue to complain they're relying on them. They're not even going to be on the roster! This is my last response to you. Not being on the roster literally means they aren't relying on you. It's the very definition of not relying on you when they won't even let you freaking play.

What do you think "depth" looks like on other teams? Do you think the average team is sitting on guys better than Ober, SWR, and Varland as their 6, 7, and 8 starters in AAA? You realize that's not the situation, right?

Maeda has started 32, 25, 20, 26, and 21 games in his major league career (outside of 2020 where it was literally impossible to start 20 games). That is 124 starts in 5 years. That equals 24.8 starts per year. Sorry I took the liberty of rounding up to 25. Definitely not 22, though. And he didn't have those mid or low-20s starts because of injuries (outside of the 21 in '21), but because he moved to the pen for the stretch run and playoffs on a loaded team. His number would have been even higher if he were on a less loaded team. But don't let that context get in the way of your clearly data driven opinions.

@KirbyDome89 and @chpettit19-

Thank you for the debate! But, for the sake of the thread, I think you both have reached the end of your arguments. Let's move on now.