Current Twins' Injuries

[KirbyDome89]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Tyler Mahle was at Driveline working on his slider in November. If that's "wait and see mode" I can't imagine what him actually not throwing all offseason is. What does Josh Winder have to do with Tyler Mahle? Winder has shoulder issues every year, Tyler Mahle has had them twice in a 10 year professional career. You wanted to discount Lopez's 32 starts last year because it was the first time he'd done it. But you want to only look at last year for Mahle and claim he's some big injury concern. You can't have it both ways. Are you looking at track record or simply that players got hurt last year? 

Maeda has been throwing a baseball for a year now. He hadn't pitched in a game before ST started, but pretending like he hasn't been throwing is disingenuous. Overgeneralization? Find me 1 example of a guy coming off TJ and reinjuring that elbow in his first season back. I'm "overgeneralizing" because your concern has never actually happened? Ok, sure, that makes sense. Coming off Tommy John doesn't make you a higher injury risk. 

If your stance is that somebody was hurt last year and "missed 3 months" so they're an added injury risk Polanco is in your narrative. Or does that not count? That situation only counts against Mahle? You see why I struggle with your argument? Because it's all over the place. The "injury plagued roster" argument only works if there's guys who are regularly injured. Otherwise you're literally just saying the team needs to hope they don't have a whole bunch of injuries this year, and I go back to my question of "what is your real argument there?" Of course they need to have a roster that doesn't get completely wiped out by injuries. Who's arguing against that? The argument is whether or not they've put themselves at greater risk than the average team by collecting a bunch of real injury concerns. And, outside of Buxton, Kirilloff, and Larnach, the Twins haven't collected any players with those kinds of concerns. A guy having been hurt last year doesn't mean they're automatically more likely to be hurt this year. That isn't how it works. So the team isn't investing anymore in healthy campaigns than any other team.

Do you think they signed Gallo and Solano to major league deals as veterans with no options remaining only to release them before the season starts? Gordon has no options left. Jeffers, Kirilloff, and Larnach are the only 3 position players with a real shot at the opening day roster with options left. Jeffers is the 2nd catcher so he's not going to AAA. There's only 1 spot left for Kirilloff and Larnach. One of them was scheduled to start the year in AAA. I don't care whether you think they should or not, that's the reality of the situation. They weren't banking on both of them being healthy and contributing at the start of the year. It's not hard to see that.

Unless he was throwing 5+ innings in game like conditions at Driveline, yeah, I'd call it wait and see since that's exactly what they opted for with the rest route a la Winder, who has been shelved 3 times while resting his own shoulder issue. I honestly can't believe yourself and others are acting like there was, or is, no concern about Mahle's shoulder this offseason. I didn't discredit the starts, I pointed out his health was an outlier and that he'd missed significant chunks in each of the previous two full seasons (so recently) but if it bothers you then just exclude Lopez from the convo. 

Yeah I don't doubt he threw as part of his rehab. I also know he wasn't pitching ML innings every 5 days either. Do we need to be pedantic about everything? He doesn't need to shred his elbow again to miss time. He's 35, coming back from injury, and he hasn't handled anything close to a ML workload in 1.5 years, but full sail ahead I guess. 

Polanco missed the month of September. Am I "all over the place," or is it your math? Larnach is a real injury concern but Mahle and Maeda aren't. I mean....ok. I'm enjoying the lecture on my "narrative," and scatterbrained argument though. The "injury plagued roster," argument works if, as you put it, the previous season was decimated by injuries. 

Solano signed 2 weeks ago, Idk why we're talking about guys being scheduled for AAA. 

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Not to mention everyone complaining about Buxton hasn't said if the Twins should have traded him.... He was also drafted by the previous regime, as was Kiriloff..... But it's this front offices fault they are here apparently.

Three starting pitchers were traded last year deadline. They weren't getting Castillo. The Yankees should be fired, they traded for montas...... So, you either traded for Mahle, or didn't try to make this team better at the deadline. 

I'd sign him to the same deal right now. That doesn't mean he isn't a massive health risk. Acknowledging that equates with wanting him traded? Just stop....

And the Paddock trade + Bundy & Archer put them in that position. Are we only judging decisions based on intention now? 

[FlyingFinn]

9 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Solano signed 2 weeks ago, Idk why we're talking about guys being scheduled for AAA.

He's not going to AAA.

[Mike Sixel]

20 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

I'd sign him to the same deal right now. That doesn't mean he isn't a massive health risk. Acknowledging that equates with wanting him traded? Just stop....

And the Paddock trade + Bundy & Archer put them in that position. Are we only judging decisions based on intention now? 

I find it having it both ways to complain Buxton is here and a health risk, and to want him here. If you want him here, how much better do you want than Gordon, Taylor, and Gallo as current backups, with Martin (ugh, hurt) and a few other minor leaguers not that far off that can play center potentially? I clearly don't understand the complaint about what the FO is doing with CF. Help me understand.

[Mike Sixel]

14 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

He's not going to AAA.

Right. 

[KirbyDome89]

16 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I find it having it both ways to complain Buxton is here and a health risk, and to want him here. If you want him here, how much better do you want than Gordon, Taylor, and Gallo as current backups, with Martin (ugh, hurt) and a few other minor leaguers not that far off that can play center potentially? I clearly don't understand the complaint about what the FO is doing with CF. Help me understand.

It's not a complaint, it's a reality. Every year he misses significant time. It's a given at this point. I was in favor of the signing at the time; I'm still in favor of it. None of that has anything to do with wanting him traded. This isn't about depth, can we put that to rest? I don't expect the 4th or 5th OFer to step in and pick up his slack. Buxton is a gamble worth taking, but still a gamble. This sidebar arose from the argument that the Twins aren't betting on health; Buxton is a merely an example.  

[KirbyDome89]

40 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

He's not going to AAA.

He (Solano) isn't who I was referring to. 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Unless he was throwing 5+ innings in game like conditions at Driveline, yeah, I'd call it wait and see since that's exactly what they opted for with the rest route a la Winder, who has been shelved 3 times while resting his own shoulder issue. I honestly can't believe yourself and others are acting like there was, or is, no concern about Mahle's shoulder this offseason. I didn't discredit the starts, I pointed out his health was an outlier and that he'd missed significant chunks in each of the previous two full seasons (so recently) but if it bothers you then just exclude Lopez from the convo. 

Yeah I don't doubt he threw as part of his rehab. I also know he wasn't pitching ML innings every 5 days either. Do we need to be pedantic about everything? He doesn't need to shred his elbow again to miss time. He's 35, coming back from injury, and he hasn't handled anything close to a ML workload in 1.5 years, but full sail ahead I guess. 

Polanco missed the month of September. Am I "all over the place," or is it your math? Larnach is a real injury concern but Mahle and Maeda aren't. I mean....ok. I'm enjoying the lecture on my "narrative," and scatterbrained argument though. The "injury plagued roster," argument works if, as you put it, the previous season was decimated by injuries. 

Solano signed 2 weeks ago, Idk why we're talking about guys being scheduled for AAA. 

Yeah, we just need to agree to disagree that just because someone was hurt in August doesn't automatically mean they're at a higher risk to be hurt this season. You not knowing what Mahle's health situation is all offseason isn't the same thing as him not being healthy. He wasn't at Driveline throwing 75% trying to reshape his slider. He was there throwing at 100% effort to rework his pitches. A guy with concerns about the health of his arm isn't doing that. So, no, I don't see there being a concern about his shoulder just because the last time you happened to see him he was hurt. What "bothers me" is you saying "don't look at this 'outlier' because it doesn't fit my narrative, but do look at these 'outliers' because they do fit my narrative." The entire debate comes down to "does a guy who doesn't have a track record of serious health concerns count as an increased injury risk simply because they were hurt last year?" I say no. Mahle was healthy enough to be throwing max effort in November. He's been healthy all offseason and came into spring training 100% healthy, and hasn't missed a bullpen or spring training start. That doesn't sound like a guy who's struggling with his health to me.

It's not about whether or not he could be hurt, it's about is Maeda a higher injury risk than the average starting pitcher. And he isn't. There's no reason to believe he is. There's no data you can find that says guys coming off a missed season due to TJ (or any major injury) are more likely to be injured. Again, this is just you (and others) trying to fit this into your narrative. There's a difference between being a larger health risk than the average pitcher, and there being a risk someone gets hurt. You kept asking if the Twins were "investing more in injury risks" and I've answered you. No. They aren't. There's a difference you seem not to want to accept. Having been hurt last year doesn't mean you're a bigger injury risk this year. That's not how it works (unless you're Byron Buxton).

Mahle missed the month of September and you're convinced he's some massive injury risk because of it. So, yes, you're all over the place. Especially since Mahle is the one currently playing in games and Polanco isn't. Mahle made 3 August starts and 1 start on September 3rd before being shutdown. You claim he's a gigantic injury risk. Jorge Polanco's last game played was August 27th, and hasn't appeared in a spring game yet. You claim he's no injury risk. Do you see the inconsistencies? Larnach has missed basically the second half of 2 seasons in a row. That's what we call the start of a track record. Thus he's starting to look like an injury concern.

Solano wasn't signed to a major league deal with any idea other than him being on the opening day roster. That's not complicated. They will carry 13 position players on opening day. 10 of them (Buxton, Correa, Vazquez, Polanco, Farmer, Gallo, Kepler, Taylor, Gordon, and Solano) have no more minor league options left. They can't be sent to the minors without being put on waivers. They can even choose free agency over going to the minors if they want. Those 10 guys have opening day spots locked up unless they're hurt. No question about it. None at all. They didn't sign Solano 2 weeks ago just to cut him in 3 weeks. They simply didn't. Larnach, Kirilloff, Miranda, and Jeffers do have options left. Jeffers is their second catcher, and Miranda is their starting 3B/DH. They have opening day roster spots locked up (barring injury). There's no debate about that. That's simply how it is. That leaves 1 more spot for Kirilloff and Larnach. 1 of them is going to AAA or starting the year on the IL. No question about it.

[KirbyDome89]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Yeah, we just need to agree to disagree that just because someone was hurt in August doesn't automatically mean they're at a higher risk to be hurt this season. You not knowing what Mahle's health situation is all offseason isn't the same thing as him not being healthy. He wasn't at Driveline throwing 75% trying to reshape his slider. He was there throwing at 100% effort to rework his pitches. A guy with concerns about the health of his arm isn't doing that. So, no, I don't see there being a concern about his shoulder just because the last time you happened to see him he was hurt. What "bothers me" is you saying "don't look at this 'outlier' because it doesn't fit my narrative, but do look at these 'outliers' because they do fit my narrative." The entire debate comes down to "does a guy who doesn't have a track record of serious health concerns count as an increased injury risk simply because they were hurt last year?" I say no. Mahle was healthy enough to be throwing max effort in November. He's been healthy all offseason and came into spring training 100% healthy, and hasn't missed a bullpen or spring training start. That doesn't sound like a guy who's struggling with his health to me.

It's not about whether or not he could be hurt, it's about is Maeda a higher injury risk than the average starting pitcher. And he isn't. There's no reason to believe he is. There's no data you can find that says guys coming off a missed season due to TJ (or any major injury) is more likely to be injured. Again, this is just you (and others) trying to fit this into your narrative. There's a difference between being a larger health risk than the average pitcher, and there being a risk someone gets hurt. You kept asking if the Twins were "investing more in injury risks" and I've answered you. No. They aren't. There's a difference you seem not to want to accept. Having been hurt last year doesn't mean you're a bigger injury risk this year. That's not how it works (unless you're Byron Buxton).

Mahle missed the month of September and you're convinced he's some massive injury risk because of it. So, yes, you're all over the place. Especially since Mahle is the one currently playing in games and Polanco isn't. Mahle made 3 August starts and 1 start on September 3rd before being shutdown. You claim he's a gigantic injury risk. Jorge Polanco's last game played was August 27th, and hasn't appeared in a spring game yet. You claim he's no injury risk. Do you see the inconsistencies? Larnach has missed basically the second half of 2 seasons in a row. That's what we call the start of a track record. Thus he's starting to look like an injury concern.

Solano wasn't signed to a major league deal with any idea other than him being on the opening day roster. That's not complicated. They will carry 13 position players on opening day. 10 of them (Buxton, Correa, Vazquez, Polanco, Farmer, Gallo, Kepler, Taylor, Gordon, and Solano) have no more minor league options left. They can't be sent to the minors without being put on waivers. They can even choose free agency over going to the minors if they want. Those 10 guys have opening day spots locked up unless they're hurt. No question about it. None at all. They didn't sign Solano 2 weeks ago just to cut him in 3 weeks. They simply didn't. Larnach, Kirilloff, Miranda, and Jeffers do have options left. Jeffers is their second catcher, and Miranda is their starting 3B/DH. They have opening day roster spots locked up (barring injury). There's no debate about that. That's simply how it is. That leaves 1 more spot for Kirilloff and Larnach. 1 of them is going to AAA or starting the year on the IL. No question about it.

Am I the only one who's ignorant when it comes to the details of his health situation? Yeah, I guess I just want to see the guy who couldn't throw last year make it through a ML lineup a few times before I breathe a sigh of relief. Crazy right? I think a shoulder issue that sidelines you for an extended period of time, one where rest is the remedy, is cause for concern when we're talking about a 6 month season. I didn't realize that narrative was a synonym for recent. Different launching points doesn't mean I'm crafting some nefarious narrative. If Mahle makes it through this year unscathed then the shoulder concern is all but forgotten. 

This isn't an average situation. If you can find a dataset of 35 year olds coming back from TJ after not pitching in a ML game for 18 months I'm all ears I guess. 

He was pulled on the 17th because he was throwing 85 mph. Ditto for his September start. He missed half of July before being traded. He threw 12 actual innings for MN last year. I'm so over hearing about "my narrative," when you're claiming Mahle "missed September," or Solano & Gallo are "legit MLB players," at 1B. Actually, I said Polanco could go either way and that he wasn't on my radar - it's one page back I believe. Ahh I see, if Mahle misses extended time in year two (this year) he then qualifies as an injury concern similar to Larnach. Nothing arbitrary about that line. 

I'm fully aware. If the team was certain he wasn't going to make the opening day roster, i.e. he was "scheduled for AAA," I doubt they'd wait past the point where position players had reported to sign a 35 year old that posted .5 fWAR last year. 

[chpettit19]

27 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Am I the only one who's ignorant when it comes to the details of his health situation? Yeah, I guess I just want to see the guy who couldn't throw last year make it through a ML lineup a few times before I breathe a sigh of relief. Crazy right? I think a shoulder issue that sidelines you for an extended period of time, one where rest is the remedy, is cause for concern when we're talking about a 6 month season. I didn't realize that narrative was a synonym for recent. Different launching points doesn't mean I'm crafting some nefarious narrative. If Mahle makes it through this year unscathed then the shoulder concern is all but forgotten. 

This isn't an average situation. If you can find a dataset of 35 year olds coming back from TJ after not pitching in a ML game for 18 months I'm all ears I guess. 

He was pulled on the 17th because he was throwing 85 mph. Ditto for his September start. He missed half of July before being traded. He threw 12 actual innings for MN last year. I'm so over hearing about "my narrative," when you're claiming Mahle "missed September," or Solano & Gallo are "legit MLB players," at 1B. Actually, I said Polanco could go either way and that he wasn't on my radar - it's one page back I believe. Ahh I see, if Mahle misses extended time in year two (this year) he then qualifies as an injury concern similar to Larnach. Nothing arbitrary about that line. 

I'm fully aware. If the team was certain he wasn't going to make the opening day roster, i.e. he was "scheduled for AAA," I doubt they'd wait past the point where position players had reported to sign a 35 year old that posted .5 fWAR last year. 

No, you aren't the only one ignorant to that, but that's why we said we just have to agree to disagree on that situation. You automatically connect 1 injury with an ongoing problem. I don't. Players go down with injuries "where rest is the remedy" all the time. And then they come back with no problem. You have a need to see an entire season out of him before you're willing to say it isn't a problem. I don't. So we simply disagree on this.

John Smoltz wasn't quite 35, but he was 32 or so I think. Billy Wagner was like 36 or 37 if I'm remembering correctly. Justin Verlander missed all but 1 start in 2020, and all of 2021 with TJ then came back and won the Cy Young with a 1.75 ERA in 28 starts at the age of 39. Is that a recent enough example? Oh, and that was his 2nd, which is supposed to be harder to come back from.

Mahle missed 2/3 starts in July. I've already given this info, but I'll do it again. When he was traded he was 3 starts behind the 22 that 4 whole major league pitchers had reached, and 2 starts behind the majority of pitchers who hadn't missed a start. Please stop acting like he missed a ton of time before the trade. He was tied for 47th in all of baseball in starts made (with that Verlander character that won the Cy Young coming off basically 2 missed seasons with TJ). He made 5 starts in June going 6, 6, 9, 6, 6.2 innings. Then 3 before the trade going 5, 6, and 6. Doesn't look like a guy who's arm is hanging by a thread. He got to MN and immediately went 6 innings, 6 innings in his first 2 starts. Again, no signs of concern there. Then he got hurt. Tried to come back and couldn't go. It happens. You want to count August 17th as his last game? Fine. 10 whole entire days before Mr Polanco who you're not worried about at all. The Twins played their 125th game on August 27th last year. Polanco played in his 104th, and final, game of the season on that date. So, again, the idea that Mahle missed 2/3 starts and that's a really big concern, but Polanco having had missed 21 games before he got hurt isn't is inconsistant.

Yeah, this FO never makes any moves late in the offseason to set their roster. They're definitely not known for that. Your complaint is that they're relying too much on better health. They mitigated that by pushing Larnach (or Kirilloff) to AAA to start the year. You not liking the players they got to create depth is entirely different than them relying too much on better health to Kirilloff and Larnach. By definition, they can't be relying on Larnach (or Kirilloff) to produce for the Twins if they aren't even planning on having him on the roster. I don't get why that's controversial. 

[tony&rodney]

Worrying is just wishing for bad luck.

[Craig Arko]

28 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Worrying is just wishing for bad luck.

Which seems to be a common theme in so very many threads. And is kind of unfortunate. But, you get used to it.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Craig Arko said:

Which seems to be a common theme in so very many threads. And is kind of unfortunate. But, you get used to it.

It's also been shown to be unhealthy and make you less happy. 

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, Craig Arko said:

Which seems to be a common theme in so very many threads. And is kind of unfortunate. But, you get used to it.

 

35 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

It's also been shown to be unhealthy and make you less happy. 

While I agree, and have stated here many times, I can’t get overly upset or expend negative energy on things over which I have zero control, let’s keep our comments directed to the topic and not speculating on the mental well being of fellow posters

[ashbury]

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

My speculation is that Polanco is going to be extra cautious with his knee, and will miss too much playing time this spring to be ready for Opening Day. The interesting angle is whether his vesting option is also a club option; absent a confirmation from one of the two sides, do we really know for sure? If Polanco were to become a free agent after 2023, would he fetch more than $22 million over the next two seasons? He probably thinks so and I do too. Polanco would have to miss about a month for 2024 not to vest, and even if he comes back within 30 games of the start of the season, say before May, he would be a candidate for days off (load management) as the season goes on.

If Polanco is not ready for the start of the season, that would put the Opening Day infield at something like: 1B Miranda, 2B Solano, SS Correa, 3B Farmer. So the so-called infield depth would already be pressed into action. 

 

[KirbyDome89]

21 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

No, you aren't the only one ignorant to that, but that's why we said we just have to agree to disagree on that situation. You automatically connect 1 injury with an ongoing problem. I don't. Players go down with injuries "where rest is the remedy" all the time. And then they come back with no problem. You have a need to see an entire season out of him before you're willing to say it isn't a problem. I don't. So we simply disagree on this.

John Smoltz wasn't quite 35, but he was 32 or so I think. Billy Wagner was like 36 or 37 if I'm remembering correctly. Justin Verlander missed all but 1 start in 2020, and all of 2021 with TJ then came back and won the Cy Young with a 1.75 ERA in 28 starts at the age of 39. Is that a recent enough example? Oh, and that was his 2nd, which is supposed to be harder to come back from.

Mahle missed 2/3 starts in July. I've already given this info, but I'll do it again. When he was traded he was 3 starts behind the 22 that 4 whole major league pitchers had reached, and 2 starts behind the majority of pitchers who hadn't missed a start. Please stop acting like he missed a ton of time before the trade. He was tied for 47th in all of baseball in starts made (with that Verlander character that won the Cy Young coming off basically 2 missed seasons with TJ). He made 5 starts in June going 6, 6, 9, 6, 6.2 innings. Then 3 before the trade going 5, 6, and 6. Doesn't look like a guy who's arm is hanging by a thread. He got to MN and immediately went 6 innings, 6 innings in his first 2 starts. Again, no signs of concern there. Then he got hurt. Tried to come back and couldn't go. It happens. You want to count August 17th as his last game? Fine. 10 whole entire days before Mr Polanco who you're not worried about at all. The Twins played their 125th game on August 27th last year. Polanco played in his 104th, and final, game of the season on that date. So, again, the idea that Mahle missed 2/3 starts and that's a really big concern, but Polanco having had missed 21 games before he got hurt isn't is inconsistant.

Yeah, this FO never makes any moves late in the offseason to set their roster. They're definitely not known for that. Your complaint is that they're relying too much on better health. They mitigated that by pushing Larnach (or Kirilloff) to AAA to start the year. You not liking the players they got to create depth is entirely different than them relying too much on better health to Kirilloff and Larnach. By definition, they can't be relying on Larnach (or Kirilloff) to produce for the Twins if they aren't even planning on having him on the roster. I don't get why that's controversial. 

What a dataset, 2 HOF'ers and a third on the fence. I'm dead. Yeah, just be Justin Verlander or a RP on track for the HOF. Hilarious.

Mahle missed 3 starts in July alone. Yeah he had two normal starts in MN post deadline, and then he threw 2 innings apiece in his next two outings. So 5 actual starts between July and August, which is roughly one month of starts. He missed 2x the amount Polanco did, and he was shelved 3x during that span. Yep, I find that a bit more concerning, even with Polanco's setback in the minors.

So the plan all along was to have Larnach in AAA and wait until camp broke to sign a replacement level player? Doubt it. This FO definitely never pivots right? I'm not complaining, I'm stating something, that in my eyes is obvious, this team is heavily reliant on better health. Am I a big fan of the Gallo or Solano signings? No. Does that matter at all in regard to my stance about health? Also no. I have no idea why yourself and others can't seem to separate those two things. 

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

What a dataset, 2 HOF'ers and a third on the fence. I'm dead. Yeah, just be Justin Verlander or a RP on track for the HOF. Hilarious.

Mahle missed 3 starts in July alone. Yeah he had two normal starts in MN post deadline, and then he threw 2 innings apiece in his next two outings. So 5 actual starts between July and August, which is roughly one month of starts. He missed 2x the amount Polanco did, and he was shelved 3x during that span. Yep, I find that a bit more concerning, even with Polanco's setback in the minors.

So the plan all along was to have Larnach in AAA and wait until camp broke to sign a replacement level player? Doubt it. This FO definitely never pivots right? I'm not complaining, I'm stating something, that in my eyes is obvious, this team is heavily reliant on better health. Am I a big fan of the Gallo or Solano signings? No. Does that matter at all in regard to my stance about health? Also no. I have no idea why yourself and others can't seem to separate those two things. 

So those 3 pitchers were only able to stay healthy after TJ because they're HOFers? That's an interesting take. You wanted an example of an older (you asked for a 35 year old) pitcher who'd missed 18 months and returned to throw a healthy season. You asked for that because your argument is that Maeda is an increased health risk due to having missed 18 months and being 35. I provided you an example of a 39 year old doing it literally last season and your response is "Verlander doesn't count because he's talented." Forgive me for not being impressed by that response. He's a guy with multiple TJ surgeries. He's 4 years older. And had missed more time than Maeda. Him being a really good pitcher doesn't make him less injury prone. For proof of that go ahead and reference the fact that it was his second TJ. Your argument is literally "well, yeah, Verlander has been hurt more, and is older, but he's better when he's healthy so you can't count him." That's nonsense. That's not how injury risk works.

Yes. Mahle missed 3 starts in July. I've said that. Over and over and over. He then came back during July and made 2 6 inning starts before the trade. I understand that that doesn't impress you, but if we went by your logic here you'd basically just be putting everyone on the 60-day and ending their season if they get hurt. Your argument is that it's impossible to get hurt and heal again in a month. That's nonsense. Oh, and I was wrong, Mahle was at Driveline in October, not November. Gleeman has a nice article about Twins pitchers, including Mahle going to driveline last October on The Athletic today. You should check it out. It even explains the dozens and dozens of max effort pitches they throw to rework their pitches. Tyler Mahle was healthy in October and has been healthy all offseason and spring training! I'm done talking about Mahle. You're asking for a full season of health to clear him. I think that's ridiculous and unreasonable. We simply just don't agree on what constitutes an injury concern.

Nope, likely wasn't the plan from the start. But in an effort to not be so heavily reliant on better health for Kirilloff and Larnach they made the Solano signing. We can't separate those 2 things because your argument makes no sense! If you accept that they've pushed the injury concern guys down the depth chart you can't also argue that they're relying on them to be healthier. It's impossible. You simply can't make that argument. Because they're directly opposite ideas. By pushing them down the depth chart they're not relying on them. I mean that's literally what pushing them down the depth chart means! And, no, this FO doesn't pivot very much. In fact, perhaps the #1 complaint on these boards is their refusal to pivot away from "the plan." They're much more known for sticking with "the plan" for too long when it isn't working than for pivoting. Even I jump onto the complain train when it comes to them pivoting off "the plan" quick enough. It's the #1 deficit they have in my opinion.

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

So those 3 pitchers were only able to stay healthy after TJ because they're HOFers? That's an interesting take. You wanted an example of an older (you asked for a 35 year old) pitcher who'd missed 18 months and returned to throw a healthy season. You asked for that because your argument is that Maeda is an increased health risk due to having missed 18 months and being 35. I provided you an example of a 39 year old doing it literally last season and your response is "Verlander doesn't count because he's talented." Forgive me for not being impressed by that response. He's a guy with multiple TJ surgeries. He's 4 years older. And had missed more time than Maeda. Him being a really good pitcher doesn't make him less injury prone. For proof of that go ahead and reference the fact that it was his second TJ. Your argument is literally "well, yeah, Verlander has been hurt more, and is older, but he's better when he's healthy so you can't count him." That's nonsense. That's not how injury risk works.

Yes. Mahle missed 3 starts in July. I've said that. Over and over and over. He then came back during July and made 2 6 inning starts before the trade. I understand that that doesn't impress you, but if we went by your logic here you'd basically just be putting everyone on the 60-day and ending their season if they get hurt. Your argument is that it's impossible to get hurt and heal again in a month. That's nonsense. Oh, and I was wrong, Mahle was at Driveline in October, not November. Gleeman has a nice article about Twins pitchers, including Mahle going to driveline last October on The Athletic today. You should check it out. It even explains the dozens and dozens of max effort pitches they throw to rework their pitches. Tyler Mahle was healthy in October and has been healthy all offseason and spring training! I'm done talking about Mahle. You're asking for a full season of health to clear him. I think that's ridiculous and unreasonable. We simply just don't agree on what constitutes an injury concern.

Nope, likely wasn't the plan from the start. But in an effort to not be so heavily reliant on better health for Kirilloff and Larnach they made the Solano signing. We can't separate those 2 things because your argument makes no sense! If you accept that they've pushed the injury concern guys down the depth chart you can't also argue that they're relying on them to be healthier. It's impossible. You simply can't make that argument. Because they're directly opposite ideas. By pushing them down the depth chart they're not relying on them. I mean that's literally what pushing them down the depth chart means! And, no, this FO doesn't pivot very much. In fact, perhaps the #1 complaint on these boards is their refusal to pivot away from "the plan." They're much more known for sticking with "the plan" for too long when it isn't working than for pivoting. Even I jump onto the complain train when it comes to them pivoting off "the plan" quick enough. It's the #1 deficit they have in my opinion.

No, my response was that Verlander was the most extreme example possible. It's like arguing that the Twins need to keep selecting pitchers in the Rule V draft because Johan was a stud. 

I'm asking for some ML action, but yeah, terribly unreasonable. 

So Larnach wasn't scheduled. Ok. 

Solano, Farmer, or Taylor, aren't pushing anybody down the depth chart. Who is getting bumped? Ober? He moves from 5-6, a spot that's guaranteed to see ML innings, and it's a massive question mark whether he'll be healthy enough to pitch when called upon - you know that. Who else?

As far as in season decision making, I agree, but I've certainly listened to and/or read Twins media compliment this FO's ability to pivot when it comes to offseason targets. 

[chpettit19]

8 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

No, my response was that Verlander was the most extreme example possible. It's like arguing that the Twins need to keep selecting pitchers in the Rule V draft because Johan was a stud. 

I'm asking for some ML action, but yeah, terribly unreasonable. 

So Larnach wasn't scheduled. Ok. 

Solano, Farmer, or Taylor, aren't pushing anybody down the depth chart. Who is getting bumped? Ober? He moves from 5-6, a spot that's guaranteed to see ML innings, and it's a massive question mark whether he'll be healthy enough to pitch when called upon - you know that. Who else?

As far as in season decision making, I agree, but I've certainly listened to and/or read Twins media compliment this FO's ability to pivot when it comes to offseason targets. 

Verlander's performance was extreme, not his health. Nobody is arguing Maeda is going to have a sub-2 ERA, just that he'll be healthy. 

It's not unreasonable to you, it's unneeded for me. How many more times do you need me to say we simply don't agree on what is needed to consider a guy healthy? We just don't agree. It's ok. That's why I'm done talking about him with you. 

Sure, you win. Larnach wasn't scheduled for AAA on whatever cutoff date you have in your head. But he is now. The addition of 3 guys without minor league options is pushing someone off the opening day roster. If pushing them literally off the roster isn't moving them down the depth chart I don't know what is. No, those 3 aren't bumping Ober, they're bumping a position player since they're, you know, position players. I'm pretty sure I already explained the whole "carrying 13 pitchers so only have 13 position player spots avaliable, and have 10 vets who can't be optioned" situation. 

Yes, Ober is a huge question mark. It's why they got Lopez to bump Ober off the roster. You're literally arguing against yourself. You're pointing out that they pushed a guy off the roster while arguing they didn't do things to not have to rely on that player who isn't going to be on the opening day roster. The Twins also have SWR and Varland who've debuted already that they can call up if Ober can't take the first opening created. I think that's called depth, and it's there so you don't have to rely on perfect health for the opening day roster. 

[miracleb]

Any word on Connor Prielipp?  (or do none of the minor leagues get rolling on the spring training yet?)

[saviking]

On a more philosophical note: I cut my teeth on watching the Twins through out the sixties. Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't remember players getting hurt much or players coming up and down from the minor league like we have now. If they needed Tommy John surgery there wasn't any and it would have ended their career. Same with torn ligament of the knee. We didn't baby pitchers. Through them out there every four days with no pitch count.

So what's changed?

[Mike Sixel]

10 minutes ago, saviking said:

On a more philosophical note: I cut my teeth on watching the Twins through out the sixties. Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't remember players getting hurt much or players coming up and down from the minor league like we have now. If they needed Tommy John surgery there wasn't any and it would have ended their career. Same with torn ligament of the knee. We didn't baby pitchers. Through them out there every four days with no pitch count.

So what's changed?

We smarter. One thousand times smarter.

[Bodie]

On 3/3/2023 at 8:16 PM, Otwins said:

Not worried yet but you are right that it is not a good start. Hopefully Buxton and Polanco just being cautious.  Glad we have depth. Keep reading posters who want to trade Farmer or Kepler. Just say NO

I don't think I am off base in saying that no team in baseball has been more devastated by injuries than the Twins- and not just in the short-term. 

Buxton, Mauer, Morneau.  Each of these had real Hall of Fame potential- and all showed that potential translated into actual production (Buxton producing the least but possibly the most potential).

None came close to the career that "could have been".  MVP seasons -but how many more were lost- for the Ole M&M boys, and we're still waiting for Buxton to play a 2nd full season (this is still only his 7th year, so...).

Blame the trainers?  Not even the biggest loudest members of the "Twins are sooooo cheap" club can argue (IMHO) that the Twins would continue to endanger the careers of their players over such a long period of time.

Managers have run the gamut from relatively old-school Gardenhire to Rocco and his "nobody should be playing EVERY game this (or any) week" preventative style.  Molitor,  if not strictly splitting the difference, was at least somewhere in between.  None of the changes improved the injury patterns, but somehow seemingly made things worse.

I have one  untried idea - hire Kent Hrbek as strength and conditioning coach and give THAT a go!  Maximizing the medically accepted "healthy" angle isn't working, so let's go in the other way!!! Merrits and Miller's for all!!! (it can hardly be worse)

 

[Craig Arko]

1 hour ago, saviking said:

On a more philosophical note: I cut my teeth on watching the Twins through out the sixties. Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't remember players getting hurt much or players coming up and down from the minor league like we have now. If they needed Tommy John surgery there wasn't any and it would have ended their career. Same with torn ligament of the knee. We didn't baby pitchers. Through them out there every four days with no pitch count.

So what's changed?

Tony Oliva and Rod Carew had very serious knee injuries that might have benefited from recent surgical improvements. 

[KirbyDome89]

8 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Verlander's performance was extreme, not his health. Nobody is arguing Maeda is going to have a sub-2 ERA, just that he'll be healthy. 

It's not unreasonable to you, it's unneeded for me. How many more times do you need me to say we simply don't agree on what is needed to consider a guy healthy? We just don't agree. It's ok. That's why I'm done talking about him with you. 

Sure, you win. Larnach wasn't scheduled for AAA on whatever cutoff date you have in your head. But he is now. The addition of 3 guys without minor league options is pushing someone off the opening day roster. If pushing them literally off the roster isn't moving them down the depth chart I don't know what is. No, those 3 aren't bumping Ober, they're bumping a position player since they're, you know, position players. I'm pretty sure I already explained the whole "carrying 13 pitchers so only have 13 position player spots avaliable, and have 10 vets who can't be optioned" situation. 

Yes, Ober is a huge question mark. It's why they got Lopez to bump Ober off the roster. You're literally arguing against yourself. You're pointing out that they pushed a guy off the roster while arguing they didn't do things to not have to rely on that player who isn't going to be on the opening day roster. The Twins also have SWR and Varland who've debuted already that they can call up if Ober can't take the first opening created. I think that's called depth, and it's there so you don't have to rely on perfect health for the opening day roster. 

Everything about Verlander, age, performance, health, recovery, ect. is extreme. Everything. 

Yay! Sure, we'll just disagree about whether a post camp signing of 35 year old Donovan Solano,who put up .5 fWAR last year, means the Twins weren't invested in Larnach or Kirilloff. Kirilloff isn't even swinging a bat right now is he? We're sure on Larnach though?

The difference between Ober at 5 or 6 is negligible; this team didn't suddenly escape his injury risk. Ober being unable to go as the 6th man is no different than him starting the year as the 5 and going down. 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Everything about Verlander, age, performance, health, recovery, ect. is extreme. Everything. 

Yay! Sure, we'll just disagree about whether a post camp signing of 35 year old Donovan Solano,who put up .5 fWAR last year, means the Twins weren't invested in Larnach or Kirilloff. Kirilloff isn't even swinging a bat right now is he? We're sure on Larnach though?

The difference between Ober at 5 or 6 is negligible; this team didn't suddenly escape his injury risk. Ober being unable to go as the 6th man is no different than him starting the year as the 5 and going down. 

Yeah, missing both 2020 and 2021 with injuries, including TJ surgery is truly extreme health and recovery for Verlander. Envy of the league. Nobody has ever been able to recover from TJ in a 2 year time span. Truly inspiring bounce back. Unheard of in all the sports world really.

Yes, Kirilloff is swinging a bat. Has been for quite some time. But don't let the facts get in the way of your opinions. I don't know what else to tell you about Larnach and Kirilloff. One of them isn't making the opening day roster if the 12 other guys are healthy. You seem to think that means the team is relying heavily on them. I don't understand that stance. But you're welcome to believe what you want.

Not being on the roster vs being on the roster is "no different?" Again, I simply don't understand how that can be your view, but you're entitled to your thoughts. Nice that you ignored the multiple other pitchers they have at AAA who have already debuted, and are MLB ready, in your thoughts on how dire their need for Ober is, but, hey, you do you. 

Here's some fun with starters numbers for you: The Twins went into last season with a rotation of Ryan, Gray, Paddack, Bundy, and Archer with Ober on the periphery due to questions about Archer's ability to pitch deep into games. They needed 162 starts. Those 5 gave them 110, and that's with Paddack going down in start number 5. So in their completely blown up season with injuries to starting pitching that you're so concerned about now they needed 52 starts from guys not in the opening day roster. The Twins have Ober, SWR, and Varland waiting in the wings. That's basically 17 starts for each of those 3. Not ideal, but I don't think it's too crazy.

Their 5 man rotation this year is Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Maeda, and Lopez. They made a combined 106 starts last year. That's including Maeda making 0. So this rotation that you're so concerned about being a massive health concern started 4 fewer games in total than last year's rotation while including a guy who made 0 starts. Their average starts/season over the last 5 years (or however many full seasons they had in the bigs in that time, not including 2020) are 26, 27, 26, 25, and 24. That's including Maeda going to the pen while in LA. That's 128 starts per season if they all hit their career averages. Not their career bests, just their averages. That leaves a whopping 34 starts for Ober, SWR, and Varland. 11 starts per guy. Yeah, I can see how pushing Ober from needing him to start 20+ games as their 5th start to starting 11 as part of their depth is negligible. I mean he only started 11 games last year so there's no way that he could fulfill that needed 11 starts this year with how big of a health concern he is.

Maybe you don't think SWR and Varland are ready so you think they only have 6 MLB caliber starters. They'd need to 27 starts, on average, out of each of those guys then. I agree. That'd be really heavily relying on the health of their top 6. I don't know many people who don't think SWR and Varland are ready and worthy of real looks. So most people think they go 8 deep with guys worthy of MLB starts. That drops them from to needing to get 20 starts, on average, out of their top rotation candidates. Lopez got 32 starts last year, and Mahle had 33 in 2021. If just 1 guy in the rotation goes 32 starts, the other 7 guys needed starts number goes down to 18 per guy. I'm sorry that I'm failing to see this massive reliance on super extreme health this year and think that going 8 deep in worthy candidates is actually the opposite of relying heavily on amazing health. All of this doesn't even include a possible Paddack return in August.

[Parfigliano]

4 hours ago, Bodie said:

I don't think I am off base in saying that no team in baseball has been more devastated by injuries than the Twins- and not just in the short-term. 

Buxton, Mauer, Morneau.  Each of these had real Hall of Fame potential- and all showed that potential translated into actual production (Buxton producing the least but possibly the most potential).

None came close to the career that "could have been".  MVP seasons -but how many more were lost- for the Ole M&M boys, and we're still waiting for Buxton to play a 2nd full season (this is still only his 7th year, so...).

Blame the trainers?  Not even the biggest loudest members of the "Twins are sooooo cheap" club can argue (IMHO) that the Twins would continue to endanger the careers of their players over such a long period of time.

Managers have run the gamut from relatively old-school Gardenhire to Rocco and his "nobody should be playing EVERY game this (or any) week" preventative style.  Molitor,  if not strictly splitting the difference, was at least somewhere in between.  None of the changes improved the injury patterns, but somehow seemingly made things worse.

I have one  untried idea - hire Kent Hrbek as strength and conditioning coach and give THAT a go!  Maximizing the medically accepted "healthy" angle isn't working, so let's go in the other way!!! Merrits and Miller's for all!!! (it can hardly be worse)

 

I approve this message!

[KirbyDome89]

30 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Yeah, missing both 2020 and 2021 with injuries, including TJ surgery is truly extreme health and recovery for Verlander. Envy of the league. Nobody has ever been able to recover from TJ in a 2 year time span. Truly inspiring bounce back. Unheard of in all the sports world really.

Yes, Kirilloff is swinging a bat. Has been for quite some time. But don't let the facts get in the way of your opinions. I don't know what else to tell you about Larnach and Kirilloff. One of them isn't making the opening day roster if the 12 other guys are healthy. You seem to think that means the team is relying heavily on them. I don't understand that stance. But you're welcome to believe what you want.

Not being on the roster vs being on the roster is "no different?" Again, I simply don't understand how that can be your view, but you're entitled to your thoughts. Nice that you ignored the multiple other pitchers they have at AAA who have already debuted, and are MLB ready, in your thoughts on how dire their need for Ober is, but, hey, you do you. 

Here's some fun with starters numbers for you: The Twins went into last season with a rotation of Ryan, Gray, Paddack, Bundy, and Archer with Ober on the periphery due to questions about Archer's ability to pitch deep into games. They needed 162 starts. Those 5 gave them 110, and that's with Paddack going down in start number 5. So in their completely blown up season with injuries to starting pitching that you're so concerned about now they needed 52 starts from guys not in the opening day roster. The Twins have Ober, SWR, and Varland waiting in the wings. That's basically 17 starts for each of those 3. Not ideal, but I don't think it's too crazy.

Their 5 man rotation this year is Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Maeda, and Lopez. They made a combined 106 starts last year. That's including Maeda making 0. So this rotation that you're so concerned about being a massive health concern started 4 fewer games in total than last year's rotation while including a guy who made 0 starts. Their average starts/season over the last 5 years (or however many full seasons they had in the bigs in that time, not including 2020) are 26, 27, 26, 25, and 24. That's including Maeda going to the pen while in LA. That's 128 starts per season if they all hit their career averages. Not their career bests, just their averages. That leaves a whopping 34 starts for Ober, SWR, and Varland. 11 starts per guy. Yeah, I can see how pushing Ober from needing him to start 20+ games as their 5th start to starting 11 as part of their depth is negligible. I mean he only started 11 games last year so there's no way that he could fulfill that needed 11 starts this year with how big of a health concern he is.

Maybe you don't think SWR and Varland are ready so you think they only have 6 MLB caliber starters. They'd need to 27 starts, on average, out of each of those guys then. I agree. That'd be really heavily relying on the health of their top 6. I don't know many people who don't think SWR and Varland are ready and worthy of real looks. So most people think they go 8 deep with guys worthy of MLB starts. That drops them from to needing to get 20 starts, on average, out of their top rotation candidates. Lopez got 32 starts last year, and Mahle had 33 in 2021. If just 1 guy in the rotation goes 32 starts, the other 7 guys needed starts number goes down to 18 per guy. I'm sorry that I'm failing to see this massive reliance on super extreme health this year and think that going 8 deep in worthy candidates is actually the opposite of relying heavily on amazing health. All of this doesn't even include a possible Paddack return in August.

Yeah, most guys pitch into their 40s, win multiple Cy Young awards in their mid-late 30s, and are essentially a lock for 30+ starts (your favorite stat!) every year. Definitely not an outlier. 

He hasn't done it once in a ST game, and there's doubt he'll be ready by opening day, but I guess that's just like, my opinion huh. Yep, I think turning to a guy that was replacement level (if even that) days into ST because your 1B isn't likely to be playing games until mid March at the earliest means the Twins were probably invested pretty heavily in Kirilloff. Crazy right? 

Unless you think the Twins won't need that 6th man, they're relying on a healthy Ober in either situation, and if he can't go the result is the same. "Who have already debuted," that's a cute spin. You mean the 31 career innings combined between Varland and SWR? 

17 starts for Ober is essentially asking him to throw 90ish innings, and he's eclipsed that mark exactly one time in 5 professional seasons. That alone seems kinda crazy. Then SWR and Varland each need to contribute that many productive innings? Yeesh. 

We can have some more fun with numbers and use the median rather than the mean. 25 (Gray), 27 (Ryan), 24 (Mahle), 21 (Maeda - his average was 22 not 25), 21 (Lopez) for 118 starts; a whopping 8 more than last year with Paddack going down in his 5th start. 

I'm neutral on Varland and SWR. Worthy of a look isn't the same thing as being able to step in and consistently get ML hitters out. 

[PseudoSABR]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Yeah, most guys pitch into their 40s, win multiple Cy Young awards in their mid-late 30s, and are essentially a lock for 30+ starts (your favorite stat!) every year. Definitely not an outlier. 

He hasn't done it once in a ST game, and there's doubt he'll be ready by opening day, but I guess that's just like, my opinion huh. Yep, I think turning to a guy that was replacement level (if even that) days into ST because your 1B isn't likely to be playing games until mid March at the earliest means the Twins were probably invested pretty heavily in Kirilloff. Crazy right? 

Unless you think the Twins won't need that 6th man, they're relying on a healthy Ober in either situation, and if he can't go the result is the same. "Who have already debuted," that's a cute spin. You mean the 31 career innings combined between Varland and SWR? 

17 starts for Ober is essentially asking him to throw 90ish innings, and he's eclipsed that mark exactly one time in 5 professional seasons. That alone seems kinda crazy. Then SWR and Varland each need to contribute that many productive innings? Yeesh. 

We can have some more fun with numbers and use the median rather than the mean. 25 (Gray), 27 (Ryan), 24 (Mahle), 21 (Maeda - his average was 22 not 25), 21 (Lopez) for 118 starts; a whopping 8 more than last year with Paddack going down in his 5th start. 

I'm neutral on Varland and SWR. Worthy of a look isn't the same thing as being able to step in and consistently get ML hitters out. 

These are some gymnastics to undersell the best starting pitching depth in a decade or more.  If each of top 8 starters were needed to pitch a 150 to 200 innings, we wouldn't need depth.   

The rotation is just in so much a better of position than this time last year. Seriously.