Current Twins' Injuries

[Vanimal46]

19 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

You aren't really answering the question, are you? How many backups do you want? They brought in 2 OFers, 2 INf, and another SP. Everyone whined Gallo was redundant, I said he was here to make sure injuries didn't hurt as much......and they were keeping Kepler for that reason....Did you want them sign another backup? Whose place would he take?

I’m not answering the question because you’re injecting your own perception into a simple statement I made. This team has a long injury history. We’re already seeing the injury bug bite again. That was the risk this season. Injuries detailing them yet again. 

[Mike Sixel]

9 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

I’m not answering the question because you’re injecting your own perception into a simple statement I made. This team has a long injury history. We’re already seeing the injury bug bite again. That was the risk this season. Injuries detailing them yet again. 

That's true of every team. The only thing a FO can do is add better backups. You can only have 26 and 40 players. Your statement wasn't that they did nothing to mitigate the risk every team has? I clearly read it wrong. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I think it's fair to start asking for reports on Buxton and Polanco at this point. Neither were in the lineup today and tomorrow is an off day. The season starts three weeks from Thursday. 

 

 

[mnfireman]

1 hour ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I think it's fair to start asking for reports on Buxton and Polanco at this point. Neither were in the lineup today and tomorrow is an off day. The season starts three weeks from Thursday. 

 

 

I think now that the team will be losing players to the WBC and the first round of re-assignments to minor league camp coming up, we will start to see Buxton, Kirilloff ad Polanco in games.

[KirbyDome89]

21 hours ago, Obsvr said:

Every single team rely's on "health bets".

They replaced their head trainer, they brought in MLB level back ups.  What is the alternative?

The ability to prognosticate? A time machine? There probably wasn't a quick fix this offseason (the current situation wasn't one season in the making either) and that doesn't change the fact that this team is relying heavily on more than just a few guys to make considerable health rebounds. 

22 hours ago, mnfireman said:

As does every MLB team...

To a degree, sure. To the extent that the Twins are? I doubt it. Do you think this is a 78 win team that swapped Arraez for Lopez + Vasquez? 

[mnfireman]

1 minute ago, KirbyDome89 said:

To a degree, sure. To the extent that the Twins are? I doubt it. Do you think this is a 78 win team that swapped Arraez for Lopez + Vasquez? 

Regardless of your feelings towards the front office and the players they acquired/lost this off-season, last years team was in first place as late as September 4th, then lost Buxton (actually in August), Polanco, Kepler, Mahle, and Gray among others. Hopefully they won't have to use them, but the players the team brought in are better than the replacements they had to use last season.

[KirbyDome89]

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

That's true of every team. The only thing a FO can do is add better backups. You can only have 26 and 40 players. Your statement wasn't that they did nothing to mitigate the risk every team has? I clearly read it wrong. 

Every team has a CF'er that's going to miss 100 starts in CF, or a starting 1B that hasn't swung a bat in 2 years and still isn't swinging, or a 6 man rotation where 3 guys missed the entire 2nd half of last year and a 4 has missed large chunks of time beyond just last year? I don't follow other teams nearly as closly as MN, but saying "every team relies on health," feels like a massive overgeneralization here. 

[Danchat]

Oof.

 

[KirbyDome89]

10 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Regardless of your feelings towards the front office and the players they acquired/lost this off-season, last years team was in first place as late as September 4th, then lost Buxton (actually in August), Polanco, Kepler, Mahle, and Gray among others. Hopefully they won't have to use them, but the players the team brought in are better than the replacements they had to use last season.

And that's a situation every MLB team faces? 

[JD-TWINS]

Sure every other organization is hoping for good health & if they don’t get it they will not be able to compete.

You think the Yankees aren’t bothered by Rodon’s health - you think the Angels just shrug every time Trout can’t play….their All-star 3rd baseman hasn’t played 100 games since they signed him 2-3 years ago.

Can only have so much built in depth that’s major league ready! We have a half dozen prospects that many want to see play this year but there’s no roster room in theory……maybe there will be. Hope not!

Polanco - Buxton I gotta think are ready and will play 8-10 games prior to season’s start. It would be nice to get some confirmation from team.

Kirilof seems behind an April 1 start with Big Club …….he needs reps coming off surgery and he’s not getting them.

Miranda’s shoulder may linger? Seems Farmer will drop in as starter there if needed. May see Lee sooner than expected!

Larnach - lower body injury?????

Gordon’s ankle will be fine by the end of the month. Please keep him out of the infield. He may work into some time at 1B through the year if Kirilof is a wash?

Henriquez is down for a month at this time of the year with elbow (behind elbow) soreness.

Mahle - Gray - Maeda - Lopez - Ryan all have thrown and all have been soreness free ……keeping fingers crossed!!

Pagan - grand slam…….seems to be a sign…..DFA’d by April 20th!

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Every team has a CF'er that's going to miss 100 starts in CF, or a starting 1B that hasn't swung a bat in 2 years and still isn't swinging, or a 6 man rotation where 3 guys missed the entire 2nd half of last year and a 4 has missed large chunks of time beyond just last year? I don't follow other teams nearly as closly as MN, but saying "every team relies on health," feels like a massive overgeneralization here. 

You wanted them to do what with Buxton? Cut him? Trade him? How many more players did you want them to add this year? Buxton and Kiriloff were drafted by the previous regime. In addition to adding two OFers both of whom are elite defenders, they have Gordon, Larnach, and Wallner, potentially Martin or Lewis. If they added more, who would you get rid of? How would you like them to acquire more pitching? They went out and traded a great hitter for a starter. What other starter that was better was traded?

[Mike Sixel]

Or not Martin, apparently.

[Rosterman]

Thanks goodness AUSTIN MARTIN is NOT on the 40-man. Addressing this sooner rather than later is job #1 right now, see if you can get him abck into the swing before season's end, the fall league, or maybe winter ball.

 

I didn't see him  getting a call this season.

[ashbury]

4 hours ago, mnfireman said:

 last years team was in first place as late as September 4th,

This is a true statement but I don't find it the most useful.  A calendar breakdown such as the monthly summary provided by b-r.com gives more texture, and confirms my memory that the trendline was heading downward long before even mid-season.  It felt to me a lot like an Indy race car that runs out of fuel on the final stretch - "they may finish but they ain't gonna win, are they." 

September-October was a disaster for the Twins no doubt, but they needed to turn the June-August trend around if they were to remain in first at the end  Injuries that occurred near the moment they actually fell out of first were merely the final nail in the coffin.  The Twins were 67-62 the morning of Sept 1 and the Guardians wound up winning 92, so the Twins needed to find a way to go 25-8 just to force a tie, even though they were nominally still in first place - they had essentially thoroughly blown it already. 

It was a great start but this was not a strong first-place team by mid-summer and they were running on fumes by September..

Month by Month
Split	W	L	RS	RA	W-L%
April	12	9	85	68	.571
May	18	12	137	120	.600
June	13	15	134	124	.464
July	10	12	102	120	.455
August	14	14	117	105	.500
September	10	18	102	127	.357
October	1	4	19	20

[mnfireman]

13 minutes ago, ashbury said:

This is a true statement but I don't find it the most useful.  A calendar breakdown such as the monthly summary provided by b-r.com gives more texture, and confirms my memory that the trendline was heading downward long before even mid-season.  It felt to me a lot like an Indy race car that runs out of fuel on the final stretch - "they may finish but they ain't gonna win, are they." 

September-October was a disaster for the Twins no doubt, but they needed to turn the June-August trend around if they were to remain in first at the end  Injuries that occurred near the moment they actually fell out of first were merely the final nail in the coffin.  The Twins were 67-62 the morning of Sept 1 and the Guardians wound up winning 92, so the Twins needed to find a way to go 25-8 just to force a tie, even though they were nominally still in first place - they had essentially thoroughly blown it already. 

It was a great start but this was not a strong first-place team by mid-summer and they were running on fumes by September..

Month by Month
Split	W	L	RS	RA	W-L%
April	12	9	85	68	.571
May	18	12	137	120	.600
June	13	15	134	124	.464
July	10	12	102	120	.455
August	14	14	117	105	.500
September	10	18	102	127	.357
October	1	4	19	20

Spin it any way you want, the team was in 1st place in September despite being decimated by injuries for most of the season. Yes, it is the AL Central, but whatever, you play who you are scheduled to play.

The Twins played .333 baseball in Sept/Oct, or a full season record of 54-108. They were not that bad. Over the same period Cleveland played .706 baseball, or a full season record of 114-48. They were not that good.

On July 1, the Twins were 43-36 .544, or a full season record of 88-74, which would still not have been good enough to overcome Cleveland's 92-70 record, but would have probably been a closer indicator where last years team was had they managed to stay healthy.

Injuries totally decimated this team last year and they were ill-equipped to handle them. This years team potentially has better back-ups to cover the inevitable injuries. We shall see if it is enough to compete with Cleveland.

[KirbyDome89]

29 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

You wanted them to do what with Buxton? Cut him? Trade him? How many more players did you want them to add this year? Buxton and Kiriloff were drafted by the previous regime. In addition to adding two OFers both of whom are elite defenders, they have Gordon, Larnach, and Wallner, potentially Martin or Lewis. If they added more, who would you get rid of? How would you like them to acquire more pitching? They went out and traded a great hitter for a starter. What other starter that was better was traded?

This isn't about depth. The roster is what it is, and no offseason moves were going to radically change that. In no way does that mean this team isn't heavily invested in a health resurgence, or that the extent of their investment is the norm.

[KirbyDome89]

14 hours ago, mnfireman said:

Spin it any way you want, the team was in 1st place in September despite being decimated by injuries for most of the season. Yes, it is the AL Central, but whatever, you play who you are scheduled to play.

The Twins played .333 baseball in Sept/Oct, or a full season record of 54-108. They were not that bad. Over the same period Cleveland played .706 baseball, or a full season record of 114-48. They were not that good.

On July 1, the Twins were 43-36 .544, or a full season record of 88-74, which would still not have been good enough to overcome Cleveland's 92-70 record, but would have probably been a closer indicator where last years team was had they managed to stay healthy.

Injuries totally decimated this team last year and they were ill-equipped to handle them. This years team potentially has better back-ups to cover the inevitable injuries. We shall see if it is enough to compete with Cleveland.

Again, that's a situation every team in baseball faces? 

[Chaz1966]

Every team and fanbase in MLB is thinking and hoping for the same thing during the spring, "let's stay healthy through March". I would say that any team that has to rely on backups for prolonged periods is not going to do well, backup's are just that, Backup's. They're meant to get you through a few tough stretches, not to have to play for large portions of the season. 

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

This isn't about depth. The roster is what it is, and no offseason moves were going to radically change that. In no way does that mean this team isn't heavily invested in a health resurgence, or that the extent of their investment is the norm.

16 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Again, that's a situation every team in baseball faces? 

What's the real question here? The Twins got decimated by injuries last year. It was an outlier of a season, The combination of your comments is basically "they were hurt more than the average team last year, and they're hoping that isn't the case this year." Which is certainly true. What's the bigger point, though?

There were 78 pitchers who made 26 or more starts in the majors last year. 133 position players who played 130 or more games last year. That's an average of 2.6 pitchers, and 4.4 position players per team that hit those marks. Career norm performances for their pitchers and position players mean they'll have more than 3 pitchers, and more than 5 position players, hit those 26 start, or 130 games played, marks. So they haven't really invested any more than a normal team in the expectation of team health.

There was no way they could go into this season without a hope for better team health. Even if they turned over the entire 40 man roster, the hope would still have been that they don't suffer so many injuries this year. Polanco hit the IL for the first time in 9 major league seasons last year. Sure, they're "investing in health resurgence" from him, but no more than any other team is investing in a return to health for any player who got hurt last year. They're not full of players with huge health question marks outside of Buxton, Kirilloff, and maybe Larnach.

Who are they banking on being drastically healthier? Mahle started 23 games last year. 3 more starts and he's at the 26 start mark. Sonny Gray started 24, Joe Ryan 27, Pablo Lopez 32. So their starting pitching "health resurgence investment" is 2 starts from Gray, or 3 starts from Mahle, above the league norm. That's not too crazy.

Miranda, Correa, and Gordon beat the 130 game mark last year. Polanco had done it every year of his career before last year (and in 2018, but that was a suspension not injury). Christian Vazquez did it in 19, was on pace for it in 20, did it in 21, and played 119 last year. Kyle Farmer has done it each of the last 2 years. Gallo was at 126 last year because he sucked, not because he was hurt. So that's 7 position players that don't need any real resurgence to break the 130 game played mark. Already above the league norm there.

Really it's just Buxton, Kirilloff, and Larnach that are real injury concerns. I'd argue the bigger "resurgence investment" is in performance, not health. They've already planned for 1 of Kirilloff or Larnach to not be on the opening day roster. Doesn't sound like they're investing in either of them really.

[stringer bell]

I pretty much agree with the above comment, but do want to add a couple things--first of all, their most dynamic player has been dogged by injuries through his seven-year career and yet was signed to a nine-figure multi-year contract. The foundation of the Twins team is a guy who has averaged about 80 games per full season since he became a full-time regular (2017). Secondly, the Twins acquired Maeda and Paddack, who were known to have frayed elbow ligaments and got the COVID year and 21 starts out of Maeda, and five starts out of Paddack. They acquired Mahle after he had been on the IL with shoulder stiffness and got very little from him in 2022. These are all clearly injury gambles and only Maeda would be considered some semblance of winning the bet. They doubled down this offseason by signing Correa after two teams voided contract agreements due to his physical results. 

Almost every player has an injury history. The Twins have in recent years bet on players they've acquired and mostly lost. All of the players mentioned above are still with the team and if all of them and the two first-round draft picks who have been dogged by injuries (Larnach and Kirilloff), they will have indeed won their gamble this year. Actually, I'd say they will have won the bet if the position players are available for 120 or more games and the pitchers only are placed on the IL once on the season for less than a month.

[KirbyDome89]

12 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

What's the real question here? The Twins got decimated by injuries last year. It was an outlier of a season, The combination of your comments is basically "they were hurt more than the average team last year, and they're hoping that isn't the case this year." Which is certainly true. What's the bigger point, though?

There were 78 pitchers who made 26 or more starts in the majors last year. 133 position players who played 130 or more games last year. That's an average of 2.6 pitchers, and 4.4 position players per team that hit those marks. Career norm performances for their pitchers and position players mean they'll have more than 3 pitchers, and more than 5 position players, hit those 26 start, or 130 games played, marks. So they haven't really invested any more than a normal team in the expectation of team health.

There was no way they could go into this season without a hope for better team health. Even if they turned over the entire 40 man roster, the hope would still have been that they don't suffer so many injuries this year. Polanco hit the IL for the first time in 9 major league seasons last year. Sure, they're "investing in health resurgence" from him, but no more than any other team is investing in a return to health for any player who got hurt last year. They're not full of players with huge health question marks outside of Buxton, Kirilloff, and maybe Larnach.

Who are they banking on being drastically healthier? Mahle started 23 games last year. 3 more starts and he's at the 26 start mark. Sonny Gray started 24, Joe Ryan 27, Pablo Lopez 32. So their starting pitching "health resurgence investment" is 2 starts from Gray, or 3 starts from Mahle, above the league norm. That's not too crazy.

Miranda, Correa, and Gordon beat the 130 game mark last year. Polanco had done it every year of his career before last year (and in 2018, but that was a suspension not injury). Christian Vazquez did it in 19, was on pace for it in 20, did it in 21, and played 119 last year. Kyle Farmer has done it each of the last 2 years. Gallo was at 126 last year because he sucked, not because he was hurt. So that's 7 position players that don't need any real resurgence to break the 130 game played mark. Already above the league norm there. 

Really it's just Buxton, Kirilloff, and Larnach that are real injury concerns. I'd argue the bigger "resurgence investment" is in performance, not health. They've already planned for 1 of Kirilloff or Larnach to not be on the opening day roster. Doesn't sound like they're investing in either of them really.

Are the Twins leaning hard into a health reversal? Those claiming that they aren't, or that "every team," does the same thing, are the same ones pointing at all the injuries last year. So which is it? Does this team need a significant health resurgence, or is every team "decimated," by the end of the season?

Are starts the best indicator of health? Also, how strongly do those thresholds correlate with health vs. performance or other factors?

If Mahle misses the entire 2nd half again it's "not too crazy?" Maeda is mysteriously missing from this conversation. Ober (maybe Winder who also has massive injury concerns) is their only depth piece with any real ML experience and he's a lock to miss significant time. Last year was the first time Lopez has surpassed your 26 starts mark; each of his previous 2 full seasons were cut short by injury. You honestly don't think the rotation as a whole need to be drastically healthier?

I'm more concerned overall with the pitching, but there's no denying the CF situation is unique to the Twins. They essentially need a 5th OFer because the 4th is going to spend 2/3 of the season in CF. Polanco could go either way; I can see him playing 150 games, and I can also see him beginning to arrive at that point where the grind starts to take its toll, either way he wasn't on my radar. 

The two (health and performance) are inextricably linked for a lot of these guys. Eh, maybe I'm still drinking the Kirilloff kool-aid, but the prospect of Solano, Farmer, and/or Taylor getting regular playing time because he and Larnach aren't healthy enough to start the season is a downgrade in my eyes so I'd stop short of saying the team wasn't investing in that duo. 

[chpettit19]

46 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I pretty much agree with the above comment, but do want to add a couple things--first of all, their most dynamic player has been dogged by injuries through his seven-year career and yet was signed to a nine-figure multi-year contract. The foundation of the Twins team is a guy who has averaged about 80 games per full season since he became a full-time regular (2017). Secondly, the Twins acquired Maeda and Paddack, who were known to have frayed elbow ligaments and got the COVID year and 21 starts out of Maeda, and five starts out of Paddack. They acquired Mahle after he had been on the IL with shoulder stiffness and got very little from him in 2022. These are all clearly injury gambles and only Maeda would be considered some semblance of winning the bet. They doubled down this offseason by signing Correa after two teams voided contract agreements due to his physical results. 

Almost every player has an injury history. The Twins have in recent years bet on players they've acquired and mostly lost. All of the players mentioned above are still with the team and if all of them and the two first-round draft picks who have been dogged by injuries (Larnach and Kirilloff), they will have indeed won their gamble this year. Actually, I'd say they will have won the bet if the position players are available for 120 or more games and the pitchers only are placed on the IL once on the season for less than a month.

And Buxton's deal is still a steal. But, no, he'll never be expected to play a full season. It's a problem, but one they had to take.

Maeda had never in his life missed time for an elbow related injury. His time with the Dodgers showed no elbow related concern. He got TJ in his 14th professional season. Listing him as some sort of clear "higher than normal" injury risk is revisionist history. More pitchers than not get TJ these days. It's just the reality of pitching.

Paddack was more of a risk since he'd already had TJ so it was a real concern.

Mahle made 19 starts for the Reds before he was traded on August 2nd. Luis Castillo had made 14 starts for the Reds before he was traded on July 29th. Mahle had no more injury concern than the average pitcher. The vast majority of pitchers miss time throughout a season. Those 19 starts he'd made before the trade were 3 off the league lead of 22. And only 4 guys had made 22 starts by August 2nd. Acting like he was some screaming red flag is revisionist history.

Correa signed a contract for less than half of the guaranteed years the Giants had been trying to sign him to, and exactly half the years the Mets were trying to sign him to. Don't ignore the context of how that worked out.

Pretending the injury history of the Twins players (outside Buxton) is outside the norm is simply ignoring the realities of major league baseball injuries. They had a terrible year of injuries last year. But they haven't taken on bigger risk than the average team. They simply haven't. Larnach clearly wasn't being relied upon to stay healthy since they planned to start the year with him in AAA. Kirilloff was insured by both a lefty (Gallo) and a righty (Solano) so they weren't really gambling on him staying healthy either. This narrative simple is not backed up by actual context based facts.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

I pretty much agree with the above comment, but do want to add a couple things--first of all, their most dynamic player has been dogged by injuries through his seven-year career and yet was signed to a nine-figure multi-year contract. The foundation of the Twins team is a guy who has averaged about 80 games per full season since he became a full-time regular (2017). Secondly, the Twins acquired Maeda and Paddack, who were known to have frayed elbow ligaments and got the COVID year and 21 starts out of Maeda, and five starts out of Paddack. They acquired Mahle after he had been on the IL with shoulder stiffness and got very little from him in 2022. These are all clearly injury gambles and only Maeda would be considered some semblance of winning the bet. They doubled down this offseason by signing Correa after two teams voided contract agreements due to his physical results. 

Almost every player has an injury history. The Twins have in recent years bet on players they've acquired and mostly lost. All of the players mentioned above are still with the team and if all of them and the two first-round draft picks who have been dogged by injuries (Larnach and Kirilloff), they will have indeed won their gamble this year. Actually, I'd say they will have won the bet if the position players are available for 120 or more games and the pitchers only are placed on the IL once on the season for less than a month.

What should they have done with Buxton, if not sign him? 

[chpettit19]

10 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Are the Twins leaning hard into a health reversal? Those claiming that they aren't, or that "every team," does the same thing, are the same ones pointing at all the injuries last year. So which is it? Does this team need a significant health resurgence, or is every team "decimated," by the end of the season?

Are starts the best indicator of health? Also, how strongly do those thresholds correlate with health vs. performance or other factors?

If Mahle misses the entire 2nd half again it's "not too crazy?" Maeda is mysteriously missing from this conversation. Ober (maybe Winder who also has massive injury concerns) is their only depth piece with any real ML experience and he's a lock to miss significant time. Last year was the first time Lopez has surpassed your 26 starts mark; each of his previous 2 full seasons were cut short by injury. You honestly don't think the rotation as a whole need to be drastically healthier?

I'm more concerned overall with the pitching, but there's no denying the CF situation is unique to the Twins. They essentially need a 5th OFer because the 4th is going to spend 2/3 of the season in CF. Polanco could go either way; I can see him playing 150 games, and I can also see him beginning to arrive at that point where the grind starts to take its toll, either way he wasn't on my radar. 

The two (health and performance) are inextricably linked for a lot of these guys. Eh, maybe I'm still drinking the Kirilloff kool-aid, but the prospect of Solano, Farmer, and/or Taylor getting regular playing time because he and Larnach aren't healthy enough to start the season is a downgrade in my eyes so I'd stop short of saying the team wasn't investing in that duo. 

Why would we expect Mahle to miss the 2nd half? That's my point. Every team has guys get hurt every year. Mahle doesn't have a history of "missing the entire second half" so why would we think he will again? Injuries happen. To every team. It happening to him last year doesn't mean it's some outrageous gamble to expect him to not have it happen 2 years in a row when he's never had that problem.

Maeda wasn't "mysteriously missing." He didn't make any starts last year. But 18 months post TJ surgery isn't a health question, it's a performance question. Can he get his command and control back? That's the concern after TJ, not re-injury. You can't use TJ surgery in his 14th professional season as some evidence that he's a huge injury risk. More than half of major league pitchers get TJ surgery. There's no reason whatsoever to believe he's any sort of increased injury risk. And when you're questioning other teams having to deal with the same thing, the answer is 100% "yes" for 100% of the other teams. TJ is normal.

What kind of depth do you want them to have in the minors (where Ober is slated to start the year)? What do you think normal major league teams have on the farm? Bunch of proven MLB arms just taking minor league deals? You can't have it both ways. If last Maeda missing last year, and Mahle missing much of the 2nd half, automatically make them increased injury risks then Lopez making all of his starts automatically makes him not an injury risk. If last year is your sample size then it's your sample size. Don't change your sample size to fit your narrative. Every rotation needs to be drastically healthier. That's the point. The Twins are not outside the norm in terms of injury risk. Pitching or position players. 

32 starts is considered to be a fulltime load for a starter. 21 guys did that last year. 21. If you drop it down to 29 (1 IL stint) it skyrockets to 50! Less than 2 pitchers per team don't hit the IL for more than 1 minimal length stint. Pitchers get hurt. All the time. The Twins are not outside the norm.

Yes, Buxton is unique. No way around that. But let's keep that in perspective. It's 1 player. A super important player, but 1 player. Suggesting Polanco is suddenly an injury risk is simply confirmation bias. That fits your narrative. 1 IL stint in 9 years. Not 1 per year. Not 1 every other year. 1 in 9 years and you want to make the argument that he's an above average injury risk? Come on.

Larnach was scheduled to start the year in AAA. I don't understand any argument that he was being "invested in" when they wouldn't even give him a roster spot to start the year. They appear to believe the surgery worked for Kirilloff and are banking on him a little. But they "insured" that investment with multiple legitimate MLB players capable of taking over if needed. Yes, it's a downgrade from what peak Kirilloff could be, but Solano and Gallo at 1B are legitimate MLB players.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

Well, at least they have a 26-man roster this year instead of the 25-man in prior seasons.  Plus, we still have 3 weeks to get healthy.

[stringer bell]

Injury related—when can the shorter IL be used? Both Kirilloff and Gordon may fall into scenarios where they might be ready to play around 3/30 where they could benefit from a rehab stint in St. Paul and then return in the first two weeks of the season. 

[Fatbat]

The only good thing about injuries, they heal up. Stop worrying.

[KirbyDome89]

7 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Why would we expect Mahle to miss the 2nd half? That's my point. Every team has guys get hurt every year. Mahle doesn't have a history of "missing the entire second half" so why would we think he will again? Injuries happen. To every team. It happening to him last year doesn't mean it's some outrageous gamble to expect him to not have it happen 2 years in a row when he's never had that problem.

Maeda wasn't "mysteriously missing." He didn't make any starts last year. But 18 months post TJ surgery isn't a health question, it's a performance question. Can he get his command and control back? That's the concern after TJ, not re-injury. You can't use TJ surgery in his 14th professional season as some evidence that he's a huge injury risk. More than half of major league pitchers get TJ surgery. There's no reason whatsoever to believe he's any sort of increased injury risk. And when you're questioning other teams having to deal with the same thing, the answer is 100% "yes" for 100% of the other teams. TJ is normal.

What kind of depth do you want them to have in the minors (where Ober is slated to start the year)? What do you think normal major league teams have on the farm? Bunch of proven MLB arms just taking minor league deals? You can't have it both ways. If last Maeda missing last year, and Mahle missing much of the 2nd half, automatically make them increased injury risks then Lopez making all of his starts automatically makes him not an injury risk. If last year is your sample size then it's your sample size. Don't change your sample size to fit your narrative. Every rotation needs to be drastically healthier. That's the point. The Twins are not outside the norm in terms of injury risk. Pitching or position players. 

32 starts is considered to be a fulltime load for a starter. 21 guys did that last year. 21. If you drop it down to 29 (1 IL stint) it skyrockets to 50! Less than 2 pitchers per team don't hit the IL for more than 1 minimal length stint. Pitchers get hurt. All the time. The Twins are not outside the norm.

Yes, Buxton is unique. No way around that. But let's keep that in perspective. It's 1 player. A super important player, but 1 player. Suggesting Polanco is suddenly an injury risk is simply confirmation bias. That fits your narrative. 1 IL stint in 9 years. Not 1 per year. Not 1 every other year. 1 in 9 years and you want to make the argument that he's an above average injury risk? Come on.

Larnach was scheduled to start the year in AAA. I don't understand any argument that he was being "invested in" when they wouldn't even give him a roster spot to start the year. They appear to believe the surgery worked for Kirilloff and are banking on him a little. But they "insured" that investment with multiple legitimate MLB players capable of taking over if needed. Yes, it's a downgrade from what peak Kirilloff could be, but Solano and Gallo at 1B are legitimate MLB players.

Tyler Mahle couldn't throw a baseball for 3 months due to a shoulder issue labeled fatigue and spent the offseason in wait and see mode (hello Josh Winder) but "injuries happen to every team." A 35 year old post TJ, who hasn't thrown in 18 months isn't a health concern (only a performance concern - hey lets argue semantics!) because "TJ is normal." I mentioned overgeneralization right? 

My stance on the depth is crystal. 

An injury plagued roster is suddenly "my narrative?" D'okay. 

Is this the part where I need to point out the difference between a minimal lengh IL stint and missing 3 months?

I didn't bring Polanco into the conversation. I literally said he wasn't even on my radar, but please, tell me more about my confirmation bias and "narrative." 

Larnach was scheduled to start the year in AAA? Solano and Gallo combined for 1.1 fWAR last year, and if Gallo is playing 1B any defensive value he might have vanishes. 

[chpettit19]

8 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Tyler Mahle couldn't throw a baseball for 3 months due to a shoulder issue labeled fatigue and spent the offseason in wait and see mode (hello Josh Winder) but "injuries happen to every team." A 35 year old post TJ, who hasn't thrown in 18 months isn't a health concern (only a performance concern - hey lets argue semantics!) because "TJ is normal." I mentioned overgeneralization right? 

My stance on the depth is crystal. 

An injury plagued roster is suddenly "my narrative?" D'okay. 

Is this the part where I need to point out the difference between a minimal lengh IL stint and missing 3 months?

I didn't bring Polanco into the conversation. I literally said he wasn't even on my radar, but please, tell me more about my confirmation bias and "narrative." 

Larnach was scheduled to start the year in AAA? Solano and Gallo combined for 1.1 fWAR last year, and if Gallo is playing 1B any defensive value he might have vanishes. 

Tyler Mahle was at Driveline working on his slider in November. If that's "wait and see mode" I can't imagine what him actually not throwing all offseason is. What does Josh Winder have to do with Tyler Mahle? Winder has shoulder issues every year, Tyler Mahle has had them twice in a 10 year professional career. You wanted to discount Lopez's 32 starts last year because it was the first time he'd done it. But you want to only look at last year for Mahle and claim he's some big injury concern. You can't have it both ways. Are you looking at track record or simply that players got hurt last year? 

Maeda has been throwing a baseball for a year now. He hadn't pitched in a game before ST started, but pretending like he hasn't been throwing is disingenuous. Overgeneralization? Find me 1 example of a guy coming off TJ and reinjuring that elbow in his first season back. I'm "overgeneralizing" because your concern has never actually happened? Ok, sure, that makes sense. Coming off Tommy John doesn't make you a higher injury risk. 

If your stance is that somebody was hurt last year and "missed 3 months" so they're an added injury risk Polanco is in your narrative. Or does that not count? That situation only counts against Mahle? You see why I struggle with your argument? Because it's all over the place. The "injury plagued roster" argument only works if there's guys who are regularly injured. Otherwise you're literally just saying the team needs to hope they don't have a whole bunch of injuries this year, and I go back to my question of "what is your real argument there?" Of course they need to have a roster that doesn't get completely wiped out by injuries. Who's arguing against that? The argument is whether or not they've put themselves at greater risk than the average team by collecting a bunch of real injury concerns. And, outside of Buxton, Kirilloff, and Larnach, the Twins haven't collected any players with those kinds of concerns. A guy having been hurt last year doesn't mean they're automatically more likely to be hurt this year. That isn't how it works. So the team isn't investing anymore in healthy campaigns than any other team.

Do you think they signed Gallo and Solano to major league deals as veterans with no options remaining only to release them before the season starts? Gordon has no options left. Jeffers, Kirilloff, and Larnach are the only 3 position players with a real shot at the opening day roster with options left. Jeffers is the 2nd catcher so he's not going to AAA. There's only 1 spot left for Kirilloff and Larnach. One of them was scheduled to start the year in AAA. I don't care whether you think they should or not, that's the reality of the situation. They weren't banking on both of them being healthy and contributing at the start of the year. It's not hard to see that.

[Mike Sixel]

Not to mention everyone complaining about Buxton hasn't said if the Twins should have traded him.... He was also drafted by the previous regime, as was Kiriloff..... But it's this front offices fault they are here apparently.

Three starting pitchers were traded last year deadline. They weren't getting Castillo. The Yankees should be fired, they traded for montas...... So, you either traded for Mahle, or didn't try to make this team better at the deadline.