The Return of the King

[Lou Hennessy]

In 2020, Kenta Maeda ran the game and had the whole world talkin'. After a brilliant stretch of 11 starts, he was crowned the king of the Twins rotation. But Tommy John surgery has kept him out of action for nearly 18 months. What are reasonable expectations for King Kenta as he makes his triumphant return to his kingdom?

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

While the pandemic-shortened 2020 season consisted of just 60 games, it gave Twins fans a performance that they had been begging for. Finally, a pitcher was able to break through as a true frontline starter, even if it was an abbreviated campaign. 

Kenta Maeda assumed his throne that year as he twirled 67 innings of 2.70 ERA ball across 11 starts. He established new career-bests in strikeout rate (32.3%), walk rate (4.0%), swinging strike rate (17.2%) and WHIP (0.75). That led to a second-place finish in the Cy Young award competition, and vindicated the franchise’s years-long pursuit of a true ace-level pitcher. 

Or so we thought. 

Maeda took an expected step back in 2021. He was still serviceable through July (4.40 ERA, 24.6% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate) but it became clear that his ailment was becoming increasingly more troublesome. He ultimately succumbed to Tommy John surgery in August 2021, and was banished from his kingdom while he recovered. 

Now, he’s returning to the rotation after roughly 17 months of recovery. But what should Twins fans expect from their former king?

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Two of the most-popular projection models agree that his per-pitch numbers will closely resemble his pre-injury self from 2021. ZiPS and Steamer both predict he’ll finish the year with an ERA around 4.15, slightly lower strikeout rates at around 22% and a 1.27 WHIP. Their differences however, lie in Maeda’s ability to remain in the starting rotation. 

Steamer thinks he’ll start 24 games and they project him for 150 innings pitched. That raises his predicted wins above replacement to 1.4, which is totally respectable for a starter’s first season after returning from Tommy John surgery.  ZiPS, however, thinks that Maeda will only manage to start 15 games, and will be limited to just 83 innings pitched. This limits their predicted WAR figure for the veteran right-hander to just 0.9 in 2023. 

Upon first glance, it would be sensible that the ZiPS projection is factoring a mid-season role change for Maeda due to an inning limitation. However, they only predict that he’ll make three appearances out of the bullpen, even with the low games started prediction. That essentially means that they think Kenta Maeda will have trouble staying healthy in 2023.

That’s not unheard of for players coming back from an extended absence, and injury limitations are certainly not uncharted territory for this Twins roster. One model thinks Maeda bounces back as a starter, and stays relatively healthy. The other sees him breaking down and only pitching about half as many innings. Time will tell which projection will be more accurate.

Perhaps a look at another arm that recently bounced back from Tommy John surgery can help provide some more reasonable expectations for King Kenta in 2023. Noah Syndergaard had this procedure in March of 2020, just after spring training was halted due to the pandemic. He also had an extended recovery period, as he didn’t return to game action until late-September in 2021, roughly 18 months after his surgery. Even then, he only appeared in two games as a one-inning opener before having another five months of recovery in the off-season. 

Syndergaard returned to full-strength heading into the 2022 season, where he finished the year with a 3.94 ERA across 24 starts between the Los Angeles Angels and Philadelphia Phillies. He tossed 135 innings last year, and though his strikeout rate slipped considerably (26.4% from 2015-2019, 16.8% in 2022), he still managed to accumulate a respectable 2.2 wins above replacement. Syndergaard was able to be this successful by limiting hitters to soft contact – which has also been a calling card of Maeda throughout his career. 

It should be noted that there are a handful of differences between Syndergaard and Maeda when comparing their respective recoveries. Notably, the former was one of the hardest throwers in the history of the game before his surgery, averaging 98.1 MPH on his heater in that time. Maeda, on the other hand, has never relied on fastball velocity, but rather the quality of his secondary offerings. In his first spring training appearance last week, his fastball did average about 90.3 MPH. That’s an encouraging sign, as it averaged about 91.6 MPH in his brilliant 2020 season. 
Of course, remaining healthy is going to be the defining factor for the 35-year-old this season, and for the rest of his career for that matter. But if he can have similar production to Syndergaard in his first year back in action, the Twins would gladly take that. 

He may not be returning to the throne that he held in 2020, but King Kenta is no longer banished from his kingdom. 

What are your expectations for Maeda in 2023 and beyond? Can he follow Syndergaard’s lead in having a relatively successful season? Let us know what you think in the comments below. 

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[Doctor Gast]

2020 shouldn't be any gauge to measure any pitcher's worth. With the greatly shorten season and hitter's having difficulty adjusting to covid regulations, especially with a steady diet of AL & NL Central teams. It'd be hard for Maeda to live up to his hype. I'd be happy if he could pitch over 100 innings with some decent #s.

[Parfigliano]

If he can come back Syndergaard like with a sub 4 ERA, 120+ innings, and 1.50 or better WAR I will be a happy camper enjoying a Happy Camper.

[Dman]

Nice writeup!  I agree with the others above.  Just need solid production and eat innings if possible.  Holding out hope the arm lasts the year but they probably should give him IL stint mid year to let the arm bounce back toward the end of the year.  I am excited to have him back as I love his mentality on the field and personality off of it.

[h2oface]

Maeda's surgery was different than Syndergaard's. Maeda's operation involved the placement of an internal brace in Maeda’s elbow that apparently has a chance to expedite the recovery timeline. While Tommy John rehabilitation typically takes around fourteen months, this procedure comes with a suggested return in between nine and twelve months time. We see that didin't happen, already.

https://www.houstonmethodist.org/newsroom/new-surgical-technique-cuts-tommy-john-recovery-time-in-half/

Syndergaard's did not include the brace. There is an additional newer developement other that the original.

https://healthcare.utah.edu/the-scope/shows.php?shows=1_5uzyiyly

The original involved harvesting a tendon to use from another part of the body. Not sure which of the last two Syndergaard had, as I can't find anything that says either way, but with the time or 12-18 months stated for his recovcery, it woud probably be the original.

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/treatment-tests-and-therapies/tommy-john-surgery-ulnar-collateral-ligament-reconstruction

 

 

[CRF]

I don't think there's any reason that he won't be effective and be able to pitch a decent amount of innings. I'm optimistic he'll be as good as before. He's had more time to recover than the standard TJ surgeries usually have, and the brace surgery is/was supposed to shorten the recovery time. Maeda never was a guy to blow people away with his heat...he's crafty and needs to hit his spots. He should be fine. 

[gman]

I'd go with a whip of less than 1.2 and innings pitched in the range of 135-150. A 9/3 strikeout to walk rate per nine innings.

[mikelink45]

Interesting to speculate but like the rest of you I have no idea

[SkyBlueWaters]

My understanding is that the Dodgers signed him to that incentive-laden contract years ago because they were concerned he might be injury-prone.  

I hope he stays healthy, and pitches well. We sure need a solid front of the rotation. 

[sun]

According to this article, Maeda pitched two scoreless innings today despite the Rays knowing what each pitch would be due to the catcher's earpiece volume being set too loud. 

When a player in any sport goes on a roll, they can become unstoppable without any explanation. And it's possible that's where Maeda may be heading this season. Sometimes a player just can't do anything wrong. That's just the way that some cookies crumble! Just enjoy it and don't fight it because Kenta's got game!

I don't care about his stats as long as he's effective enough to get the outs. The rest will take care of  itself. If you ask me I think that he'll be as good as ever because he has the mojo thing going on! Call it Karma or whatever you want. As long as Rocco pulls him out in time and doesn't push him any harder then need be, he will do just fine & will finish the season with a win loss record of about .600 - .650.

BTW, afterward when Kenta found out about the earpiece volume he just laughed! The Twins need to get ready to show him the money! I think he's hungry for it!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/twins-kenta-maeda-pitched-around-big-issue-during-spring-start/ar-AA1890gR

 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Managing his workload will be the key.  Obviously we'll be very happy if he gets to 120-150 innings with a reasonable ERA.  For starter #5, that's pretty impressive and a lot better than anything that we have gotten from that spot the past few years (decades?).  Somewhere along the way, he's going to need a break and a few skipped starts in order to limit his innings (assuming no setbacks/injuries).  That will also be a great time to see what some of the starters down at AAA have to offer. 

[se7799]

Was able to watch the game.  Wow that stadium was empty.  Could hear alot due to no crowd noise.

[tony&rodney]

15 minutes ago, se7799 said:

Was able to watch the game.  Wow that stadium was empty.  Could hear alot due to no crowd noise.

The Rays ownership group is trying to be positive about developments concerning their stadium search and dialogue with St. Petersburg. Still, what a mess. St. Petersburg itself isn't too bad but the Trop is in an out of the way spot, built on a hazardous waste dump of all places. The Trop is much better than the Dome ever was but is still not great. Attendance is a problem there. Tampa would likely be a better place for the team. The entire area is an urban sprawl without feeling very urban, but rather like constant piles of suburbs. I lived in the area for a decade and enjoyed the food and weather. The traffic is horrible. The Tampa Bay area is about the same as the Twin Cities but has a younger crowd which surprises many. 

[se7799]

14 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The Rays ownership group is trying to be positive about developments concerning their stadium search and dialogue with St. Petersburg. Still, what a mess. St. Petersburg itself isn't too bad but the Trop is in an out of the way spot, built on a hazardous waste dump of all places. The Trop is much better than the Dome ever was but is still not great. Attendance is a problem there. Tampa would likely be a better place for the team. The entire area is an urban sprawl without feeling very urban, but rather like constant piles of suburbs. I lived in the area for a decade and enjoyed the food and weather. The traffic is horrible. The Tampa Bay area is about the same as the Twin Cities but has a younger crowd which surprises many. 

Thanks for the info.  I havnt followed it much.  I definitely appreciate the knowledge.

[RaoulDuke]

I am pretty high on Maeda, his covid year was awesome to witness.  He was just eating hitters alive at 91 with pin point control and spinning the ball.  He probably won't reach that peak again but he can be a good 3 borderline 2 going forward.

He is not an ace and will never throw a ton of innings but he is one of the few pitchers in recent Twins history I would have actually had confidence in going into a playoff start.

I hope he can stay healthy and get right by the end of the year, maybe he can be extended with somewhat of a discount because the team stuck with him through injury.  Ryan/ Maeda/ Paddock could be a decent start to a rotation for next year.

[Theo Tollefson]

I know we need photos of the players, but the headline just made me think of this immediately. 

[Major League Ready]

15 hours ago, RaoulDuke said:

I am pretty high on Maeda, his covid year was awesome to witness.  He was just eating hitters alive at 91 with pin point control and spinning the ball.  He probably won't reach that peak again but he can be a good 3 borderline 2 going forward.

He is not an ace and will never throw a ton of innings but he is one of the few pitchers in recent Twins history I would have actually had confidence in going into a playoff start.

I hope he can stay healthy and get right by the end of the year, maybe he can be extended with somewhat of a discount because the team stuck with him through injury.  Ryan/ Maeda/ Paddock could be a decent start to a rotation for next year.

Did you forget Lopez or don't you like him?  Ober is just fine as a #5 too.  His slider looked quite a bit better at the end of last season.  If that trend continues, he will be able to put more guys away which has been a problem for him.  I also think they extend one of the current established SPs.  

[VivaBomboRivera!]

[joefish]

17 hours ago, sun said:

According to this article, Maeda pitched two scoreless innings today despite the Rays knowing what each pitch would be due to the catcher's earpiece volume being set too loud. 

When a player in any sport goes on a roll, they can become unstoppable without any explanation. And it's possible that's where Maeda may be heading this season. Sometimes a player just can't do anything wrong. That's just the way that some cookies crumble! Just enjoy it and don't fight it because Kenta's got game!

I don't care about his stats as long as he's effective enough to get the outs. The rest will take care of  itself. If you ask me I think that he'll be as good as ever because he has the mojo thing going on! Call it Karma or whatever you want. As long as Rocco pulls him out in time and doesn't push him any harder then need be, he will do just fine & will finish the season with a win loss record of about .600 - .650.

BTW, afterward when Kenta found out about the earpiece volume he just laughed! The Twins need to get ready to show him the money! I think he's hungry for it!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/twins-kenta-maeda-pitched-around-big-issue-during-spring-start/ar-AA1890gR

 

It was audible in the video coverage also. Not just for Maeda.  Between the broadcasters' comments I could hear "change-up" softly be spoken. Often.

[DocBauer]

Plenty of time to recover and get strong. His initial velocity says he is, and just needs to ramp up a little more, per usual. But it's always been about smarts, and the quality and location of his other pitchers. I had heard that late in 2022, while working out, the Twins were impressed with his control even though it had only been about 12 months since surgery.

Agree he might need a short mid season trip to the IL just to skip a start or two in order to be fresh for the second half. But I can easily see a sub 4 ERA and 130-150 IP this year for him.

[sun]

It might work to his advantage to by #5 in the rotation. Because in theory he would be opposing pitchers that are easier for him to beat which would result in him having a higher win loss percentage. That could work out the best for him & the team as his comeback progresses.

[RaoulDuke]

16 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Did you forget Lopez or don't you like him?  Ober is just fine as a #5 too.  His slider looked quite a bit better at the end of last season.  If that trend continues, he will be able to put more guys away which has been a problem for him.  I also think they extend one of the current established SPs.  

Ober has still got to prove it, I lump him in with Varland/ Winder/ SWR/ Balazovic as guys that could step up and claim a spot but have to do so.

I did forget about Lopez, I was on board with that trade.  I do think they are likely to bring one of Maeda/ Gray/ Mahle back depending on who preforms, stays healthy, and what they cost.  Mahle probably has the highest ceiling but Maeda/ Gray could be cheaper shorter contracts due to age.

[Major League Ready]

8 hours ago, RaoulDuke said:

Ober has still got to prove it, I lump him in with Varland/ Winder/ SWR/ Balazovic as guys that could step up and claim a spot but have to do so.

I did forget about Lopez, I was on board with that trade.  I do think they are likely to bring one of Maeda/ Gray/ Mahle back depending on who preforms, stays healthy, and what they cost.  Mahle probably has the highest ceiling but Maeda/ Gray could be cheaper shorter contracts due to age.

Varland and SWR have less than 30 IP.  Winder has 67 IP and has been ineffective.  Ober has 148 IP with a 3.82 ERA.  For me, that's significantly different than the other three.  He needs to prove he can stay healthy, but I will take that kind of performance out of the last spot in the rotation.