Meet The New Ball. Same as the Old Ball?

[Peter Labuza]

In approaching this offseason, the Twins have prioritized building one of the best outfields in the game, perfectly suited to their fly ball pitching staff. But what if Rob Manfred’s futzing tanks their approach?

Image courtesy of Brad Rempel, USA TODAY Sports

In thinking about this year’s offseason, it is no doubt that the Twins have prioritized defense. Beyond the return of Carlos Correa, both Kyle Farmer and Donovan Solano bring depth to the left and right of the diamond. But the story doubles in the outfield. Newcomers Michael A. Taylor and Joey Gallo might struggle at the plate, but both represent major upgrades in their defensive abilities. Although Matt Wallner might look major-league ready, he’ll remain in the minor leagues for now as no deal was enough for the team to part with Max Kepler. Trevor Larnach, Gilberto Celestino, and Nick Gordon might show up, but the depth of the outfield now accounts for injuries. And in recent seasons, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, Griffin Jax, and Kenta Maeda have all been near the top of the fly ball list for MLB pitchers. Also, perhaps you have heard of Byron Buxton?

For what it’s worth, Derek Falvey and company have a plan in place. But they could also end up victims of the indifferent baseball gods that may send those balls sailing above their heads.

Ever since 2017, “juiced” balls have been a major topic of conversation within the league with discrepant years. At first, studies by Ben Lindbergh and Rob Arthur demonstrated a clearly new composition within MLB’s baseballs beginning in 2015. Theories about how and why the ball changed only increased with the league’s purchase of Rawlings, the company responsible for the balls in 2018. The Twins, for their part, took advantage in 2019, breaking open the single-season major-league record for home runs, a total that has yet to be topped.

But since 2019, the ball suddenly stopped flying. The shortened season impacted the data in 2020, but it was clear by 2021 that a new baseball was landing dead on the warning track over and over. MLB said nothing. 

This new ball has put a dent in numerous plans. Most teams had begun prioritizing a Three True Outcome approach, which became less useful when that most important outcome—the home run—became less likely to occur. Luis Arraez demonstrated that maybe it was time to go back to an old-school approach. 

MLB finally took responsibility after a notable study by Bradford William Davis and astrophysicist Meredith Wills proved that 2021 featured two different baseballs with different cores, resulting in wildly different results. 2022 went even crazier, as Wills and Davis found three different balls, including a “goldilocks” ball that just happens to appear most often on Sunday Night games and Yankees games, just as Aaron Judge chased his home run record. MLB admitted to the 2021 shenanigans but has forcefully denied the 2022 allegations. 

Whatever it means, the Twins have had to make a guess about how to construct a team for 2023 without any idea what ball might show up. If the ball’s drag keeps it in the park, the Twins will be in luck with a defense ready to shag balls all season long. 

But if the league decides that baseball needs more home run chases, the Twins might find their entire off-season construction to be built for an entirely different game. What’s the point of having an elite defense if all your pitchers do is serve up long balls? 

This is not to fault the organization for choosing such a route. If anything, MLB has refused to share with teams what they might expect from the ball, and their silence on the issue has only fueled conspiracies within the players about how they might be attempting to hurt their free agency. Manfred and company might not exactly know why the balls act the way they do before it is much too late. In 2022, they at least instituted humidors as a mandatory practice for all 30 league ballparks to help create some uniformity. But if they know more about the upcoming ball than teams do, why not let teams and players prepare?

One can at least hope MLB is hoping for a ball that might find some balance. With new rules in place specifically meant to increase “small ball” offense, this is the year to find a ball that might not make it to the seats but at least won’t die on the warning track. And yet, it is hard to believe that MLB has ever had a plan in place. 

The Twins can only pray they get the right balls for this comeback season. It would be a shame for a franchise playing a smart approach to the offseason only to be cooked by a complete disaster of an unknown. Until we get into the season and finally meet the ball, the answer to the Twins’ offseason tactics will remain a mystery.

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[Bigfork Twins Guy]

MLB needs to be transparent with teams regarding the baseball.  This is a joke and teams are investing millions of dollars in players which may be negated based on which ball shows up each year.

I was especially appalled last year where I feel, and others seem to agree, that MLB juiced up the ball for Sunday night prime time games and the Yankees so Judge could get the HR record.  It was all about increased ratings in large markets.

I like the rule changes but MLB... get your stuff together with this ball situation and be consistent from year to year.

[Trov]

I say build a team that can hit line drives and hit them hard.  The rest will take care of themselves.  There will be power hitters always, but after 2019, everyone had power.  Records were falling all over the place.  Then yes, the ball became dead, and players were expecting same results.  I remember a few balls early in year last year I thought were crushed, to be caught on the track.  

I agree MLB needs to stop changing it up and go with 1 type every game every year.  It is hard to judge a player year to year when one year the ball is a super ball flying out, then next year it is like hitting a pillow.  Guys like Mitch Garver get the years of but what if they hit like 2019.  Outside of 2019, Mitch has done little at the plate power wise. He has had health issues, but even if you stretch out the games he has never been close to what he did in 2019. He was not alone, and it messed with many fans.  We were thinking we had a huge HR hitting team, and doubled down on it, only to having wall scrapers.  Players had to adjust. 

[Doctor Gast]

Unfortunately, MLB still plays favorites. So they'll place which balls they want in each stadium. And still gets away with it.

[Riverbrian]

I won't get fooled again. 😉

[Craig Arko]

MLB is now All Star Wrestling. Unfortunately, the Twins are Kenny Jay.

[Dave The Dastardly]

Sounds like a typical MLB balls-up.

[GKuehl]

No matter how the ball is flying, this year's Twins feel fairly well-prepared to handle it. If the ball is flying like 2019, Buxton, Gallo, and Correa are likely to hit 30+ homers and Miranda, Kepler, Polanco, and Kirilloff are likely to hit 20+ homers. 

If the ball is dead like it has been the last few years, our elite OF of Buxton, Gallo, Kepler, and Taylor will eat up fly balls. 

[LA VIkes Fan]

4 hours ago, Craig Arko said:

MLB is now All Star Wrestling. Unfortunately, the Twins are Kenny Jay.

You of course mean "The Very Capable Kenny Jay"? 

[Parfigliano]

5 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I won't get fooled again. 😉

Meet the new boss...same as the old boss

[Parfigliano]

6 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Unfortunately, MLB still plays favorites. So they'll place which balls they want in each stadium. And still gets away with it.

Preach.

[ziggy]

The rich continue to be the puppetmasters and the rest of us are on strings.  Disgusting if it's true. Oh wait, goldilocks was for the Yankees so that makes it okay.

[jmlease1]

If MLB was changing the ball for Yankees & nationally televised games, then someone (and likely several someones) needs to be fired and run out of the game for life. That's a manipulation that cannot be allowed to occur in professional sports (or any sports, really). Yes, both teams would be playing with the same ball still, but you cannot allow any kind of manipulation of games like that. Want fans to see more offense? Make rule or ball adjustments in the offseason, be transparent about it, and make it uniform across the game. not so Judge can chase the HR record or you can get more action on the nationally televised game.

I'm not terribly worried about how this nonsense will impact the Twins this season. If they've juiced the ball up again, their sluggers (and they have a few) will launch additional balls out of the park, and so will the opposition. Yes, the Twins are mostly flyball pitchers, but so is most of the league. The focus across baseball for pitchers has been on getting strike outs, and that's not the specialty of groundball pitchers. And the focus for the Twins this offseason on improving the defense wasn't just in improving the OF defense: I think the infield defense will be better too.

[tony&rodney]

One of the reasons that I have zero interest in blaming Barry Bonds or others for steroid use (he was never definitively caught) is because it is the owners and commissioner that direct the game. Who can forget the shameless hype of McGuire-Sosa every single day, including cutting away from the game you were watching to see their at bats. I was disgusted by that. Manfred (presently) and the owners run the game and play with the rules of the game however they see fit to do so. The use of different balls was apparent as was the outcome, more home runs.  In softball one can use various balls that are usually clearly coded with a colored dot. MLB is not going to use a blue, red, or any color dot but the league knows exactly which balls are used because they ship the cases of baseballs to the stadiums. Aaron Judge had a terrific 2022 season, yet it is hard not to wonder what role the ball played in his final numbers. The use of different balls just isn't necessary or good for the game of baseball. Next thing you know the bases will be changed. Wait. What?

[joefish]

19 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

You of course mean "The Very Capable Kenny Jay"? 

The perennial loser? And sometimes referee?

[LA VIkes Fan]

That's the guy. Now, Kenny "Sodbuster" Jay was no George "Scrap Iron " Gadaski but he was still a regular. I think Kenny Jay and George Gadaski might even have been a tag team at one point. I have this weird memory of them wrestling Jesse Ventura and maybe Adrian Adonis, Nick Bockwinkle or maybe even Hulk Hogan... Clearly I watched waaaay too much All Star Wrestling in my formative years.  

[Nine of twelve]

My Grampa was a Hercules Cortez fan.