Checking In On The Bullpen

[Cody Pirkl]

Most of the key free agents have signed, but the Twins have finally started to add to the bullpen. With this being the only obvious roster battle raging this spring, it’s worth checking in on how the bullpen could be shaken up at the last minute.

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika/USA Today

With not a single reliever added in free agency for the bulk of the offseason, it appeared the Twins were content trusting their internal options for the bullpen on Opening Day. Things have changed, and the Twins have set the stage for a shakeup in the bullpen, at least at the bottom of the depth chart. 

On February 26, the Twins made a pair of prospective additions to the bullpen. In claiming Dennis Santana off of waivers and signing Jeff Hoffman to a minor-league deal with opt outs, the Twins added a pair of intriguing relief arms to fight for low-leverage bullpen spots. Each is interesting in their own way.

Dennis Santana has bounced around quite a bit for a 26 year old. He does enough well to warrant MLB teams giving him a shot, but has enough warts to have not yet found a long term home. His slider is his primary pitch, and for good reason. The pitch not only allowed an exit velocity of under 85, its 41% whiff rate is dominant. His sinker gets crushed despite sitting in the high 90s and he walks a few too many hitters, but his .7 Wins Above Replacement would put him square in the middle of the Twins 2022 bullpen. It’s easy to see why the Twins would gamble on Santana finally putting it all together.

Jeff Hoffman has never really found success in the MLB but features a high spin fastball and a slider/changeup repertoire to help equalize left and right handed hitters. He similarly walks too many, but based on the raw data on his pitch mix, it’s surprising that he’s never put it all together. He has several opt outs if not added to the MLB roster by certain dates, but can be stashed in Triple-A for a brief period.

The bar to clear for pitchers like Hoffman or Santana to stick with the team on Opening Day likely aren’t high. For starters, the Twins have shown that depth is their number one priority this offseason. So much so that they want MLB caliber players stashed away in Triple-A if possible. The current bullpen includes Jovani Moran and Trevor Megill, both of whom have minor league options. It’s possible that regardless of the incumbent’s performances, Hoffman and/or Santana could make the Opening Day roster if they look at all like competent relievers this spring. This would allow the Twins to have options ready to go in Triple-A with MLB experience in the event that things go south early.

Further complicating things is Ronny Henriquez arriving at camp with some troubling arm pain.

Though the Twins claimed no young starters would begin the year in the bullpen, Henriquez was a likely candidate to make the switch in 2023 at some point. If his ability to be on the field is at all in question, it makes sense for the Twins to further insulate their bullpen with viable options in Triple-A. The easiest way to do so would be for Megill or Moran to start the year in St. Paul.

Spring Training performances should be taken with a grain of salt, but they matter more for some players than others. On Sunday Trevor Megill went out and pitched about as poorly as possible on the same day the Twins added two of his possible replacements. He struggled to throw strikes, and when he did they were crushed. After getting one out on 33 pitches, Megill allowed three walks, three hits, two homers and six runs. If the door to utilize his remaining minor league option was already open, he likely cracked it just a bit more. Megill already finished 2022 on a poor note as he struggled to reign in his new slider. He’ll have to bounce back in his next few spring outings in order to not make the Twins decision too easy.

The odds of a bullpen shakeup have likely increased more than we may have anticipated as the Twins spent most of the winter ignoring the reliever market. With another 40 man roster spot to play with, it’s possible they even make another move to bring in more competition for the bottom of the bullpen pecking order. Either way, there are now a couple more names to keep an eye on this spring, and it’ll be interesting to see who ultimately wins the few jobs that are up for grabs. 

Please share your thoughts on the Twins bullpen options in the COMMENTS below. 

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[Doctor Gast]

With all the pitchers coming in and adding velo, it's concerning that Alcala's velo is down. It's still early and I'm glad they are taking it easy on Alcala, hoping he can come back 100%.

[Nashvilletwin]

Quick predictions come Opening Day:

Megill and Hoffman go to in AAA (unless Hoffman opts out).

Moran and Santana (despite the walks) make the club.

We see Henriquez next year (hate to say it, and dearly hope I’m wrong, but this is our Twins and fearing the worst just gives us a chance to be pleasantly surprised if it doesn’t happen).

[mikelink45]

I find this fascinating after yesterdays article about Moran - he is the key addition and if we are worried that he sometimes walks batter we should not be extending Pagan.  Sometimes wildness works for a pitcher - see Ryne Duren of the Yankees.   But Moran is much more in control that Duren was.  The Yankees used to walk him to the mound with those big thick glasses and he would remind you of Rick Vaughn in the movie Major League. 

I can see some other starters making it to the BP and hope they do before the rejects of other teams. 

[roger]

Understand that early spring training outings don't mean all that much, but, Santana sure didn't help his case yesterday.  Hopefully, will be more settled in next time out.

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

With all the pitchers coming in and adding velo, it's concerning that Alcala's velo is down. It's still early and I'm glad they are taking it easy on Alcala, hoping he can come back 100%.

Agree. It looked like Alcala was throwing high 80s meatballs yesterday. I didn’t see a single pitch with velo above 90. It is early and he is coming back from surgery and missing virtually a whole season, but I’m not confident that he will help the club early. 

[stringer bell]

Megill looked good yesterday, probably the only guy in competition for one of the last spots that has so far (I think Moran is a near-lock so I am not considering him). I hope someone(s) steps up and that Winder and Henriquez get healthy. 

[nicksaviking]

Santana has pitched over 100 innings the past two years and has poor strikeout and walk numbers. Sometimes you catch lightning in a bottle with journeymen retreads, like the Rays do with most of their relievers, but that's really not what I want this team to chase. They've done well using their excess and questionable starters in the bullpen. Go with Winder or Sands or Henriquez when healthy.

Hoffman as a former starter has my vote too. Though since he can be placed in St. Paul, (for a bit) I'd aim to do that first.

[Cody Pirkl]

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Quick predictions come Opening Day:

Megill and Hoffman go to in AAA (unless Hoffman opts out).

Moran and Santana (despite the walks) make the club.

We see Henriquez next year (hate to say it, and dearly hope I’m wrong, but this is our Twins and fearing the worst just gives us a chance to be pleasantly surprised if it doesn’t happen).

Could easily see that playing out. Henriquez will for sure depend on injury. I don't like how they're classifying it right now but who knows? If he's healthy I think we'll see him sooner rather than later.

[Cody Pirkl]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

With all the pitchers coming in and adding velo, it's concerning that Alcala's velo is down. It's still early and I'm glad they are taking it easy on Alcala, hoping he can come back 100%.

I agree, I'm hoping he's just building his way up after missing all of last year is all but to be that far below his previous average is concerning. I think he could still be useful at 93-94 mph but I worry that this would indicate his elbow is still bothering him.

[chpettit19]

22 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Agree. It looked like Alcala was throwing high 80s meatballs yesterday. I didn’t see a single pitch with velo above 90. It is early and he is coming back from surgery and missing virtually a whole season, but I’m not confident that he will help the club early. 

Baseball Savant had Alcala up to 95.3 yesterday. He threw mostly changes and sliders. His pitch selection looks like a guy working on his off-speed stuff yesterday. 10 out of 16 pitches were off-speed. The 6 likely fastballs look like they may even include 2 or 3 changeups that he didn't execute well and had low 90s velo. Spin rates match his change, but they're marked as 4-seamers likely because the movement just wasn't there, and the velo was higher than his normal change.

[Cody Pirkl]

23 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Megill looked good yesterday, probably the only guy in competition for one of the last spots that has so far (I think Moran is a near-lock so I am not considering him). I hope someone(s) steps up and that Winder and Henriquez get healthy. 

I'll be super disappointed if Moran doesn't make the Opening Day roster. He deserved better last year and I think sending him back to AAA does nothing more than waste his innings as his walk issues aren't going to get fine tuned in the minors. If they can look past Pagan's record setting HR issues that can break a game on one pitch, I think we can put up with Moran walking a few too many hitters.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

With all the pitchers coming in and adding velo, it's concerning that Alcala's velo is down. It's still early and I'm glad they are taking it easy on Alcala, hoping he can come back 100%.

Hopefully he's just trying to get himself built back up. It's been a while since he's really thrown, so he might be a bit behind everyone else (and cautious to see how it feels out there. I'm still hopeful.

I have no problem with kicking the tires on guys like Santana or Hoffman for spot at the end of the bullpen. Maybe you find a guy who finally got something to click, maybe you catch lightning in a bottle. but it's a low risk move so long as you're not trying to fill slots in your top 4-5 guys. (and the twins aren't doing that: they already have quality locked in with Duran, Jax, Thielbar, and Lopez for the back end)

[Dman]

6 hours ago, Cody Pirkl said:

I'll be super disappointed if Moran doesn't make the Opening Day roster. He deserved better last year and I think sending him back to AAA does nothing more than waste his innings as his walk issues aren't going to get fine tuned in the minors. If they can look past Pagan's record setting HR issues that can break a game on one pitch, I think we can put up with Moran walking a few too many hitters.

I think it is his job to lose at this point.  Walking a couple an inning can turn into a disaster right quick.  In the minors I have watched him walk the bases loaded.  Not something you want to do against the best hitters in the world.  The thing he does have going for him is HR suppression.  I think that alone may allow them to live with his apparent natural wildness at times.  It kind of feels like now or never for him anyway so they should just give him his shot and see how it all works out.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

Is Brad Hand still available should one of these guys not work out?

I'm OK with the team picking up questionable experienced relief pitchers, but they have to cut them loose after a few bad outings and not get ourselves a bunch of losses like we did with Pagan and Columbe.

[Brandon]

2 hours ago, Cody Pirkl said:

I agree, I'm hoping he's just building his way up after missing all of last year is all but to be that far below his previous average is concerning. I think he could still be useful at 93-94 mph but I worry that this would indicate his elbow is still bothering him.

It could be psychological.  He may still be afraid to air it all out after the injury.   But I think he just needs time to build back up.  

[stringer bell]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Baseball Savant had Alcala up to 95.3 yesterday. He threw mostly changes and sliders. His pitch selection looks like a guy working on his off-speed stuff yesterday. 10 out of 16 pitches were off-speed. The 6 likely fastballs look like they may even include 2 or 3 changeups that he didn't execute well and had low 90s velo. Spin rates match his change, but they're marked as 4-seamers likely because the movement just wasn't there, and the velo was higher than his normal change.

Glad to hear that. I confess I didn’t see the velocity on every pitch, so I may well be wrong about his velocity. 

[jmlease1]

5 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Baseball Savant had Alcala up to 95.3 yesterday. He threw mostly changes and sliders. His pitch selection looks like a guy working on his off-speed stuff yesterday. 10 out of 16 pitches were off-speed. The 6 likely fastballs look like they may even include 2 or 3 changeups that he didn't execute well and had low 90s velo. Spin rates match his change, but they're marked as 4-seamers likely because the movement just wasn't there, and the velo was higher than his normal change.

That's good news, generally. I'm not surprised if he's still not there on the changeup, which is definitely a "feel" pitch, but if he's velocity is up in the mid-90's then then it's a good sign overall, i think. I'm still very high on Alcala.

 

[gman]

As far as arms and speed go this is probably the best pen the Twins have ever put together. Hopefully the starters get closer to averaging 6 innings per outing. With that the Twins will still use 3 relievers per night, with a different guy every night who can throw 100mph, sometimes 2. This "could" turn every game into a 6 inning game.

[Rosterman]

You still gotta find 40-man roster spots for any additions beyond the 40-man.

Megill might be working his way towards the waiver wire. Santana needs to stick with the club or go back on waivers. So that is two potential spots.

Alcala could stay behind in Florida and spend time in St. Paul, but will remain on the 40-man.

The Twins also have Oliver Ortega and Dereck Rodriguez ready to stash at AAA. Not any bullpen depth on the 40-man, unless you start converting relief pitchers. I'm sad to rad of possible Henriquez arm issues. He was the dark horse guy to break camp as a long-relief possibility. Instead, an IL visit will just create more roster issues, I'm afraid.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

17 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

The Twins also have Oliver Ortega and Dereck Rodriguez ready to stash at AAA...

And José De León, Brock Stewart, et al.

Maybe Santana has a little more perceived upside since he's kept getting picked up on waivers, or Hoffman does because he's still somewhat in the process of converting to relief, but all these guys seem like they're loosely in the same "kinda interesting, not super-promising ex-prospect or reclamation project" bucket.

[Otaknam]

I’m hoping Alcala has an outstanding spring and Carrie’s that into the season. Another power arm would sure help. Also watching Pagan this spring to see if he can somehow get some high leverage outs, or any outs, without consistent loud contact. 

[stringer bell]

13 hours ago, Rosterman said:

You still gotta find 40-man roster spots for any additions beyond the 40-man.

Megill might be working his way towards the waiver wire. Santana needs to stick with the club or go back on waivers. So that is two potential spots.

Alcala could stay behind in Florida and spend time in St. Paul, but will remain on the 40-man.

The Twins also have Oliver Ortega and Dereck Rodriguez ready to stash at AAA. Not any bullpen depth on the 40-man, unless you start converting relief pitchers. I'm sad to rad of possible Henriquez arm issues. He was the dark horse guy to break camp as a long-relief possibility. Instead, an IL visit will just create more roster issues, I'm afraid.

Well, Megill has an option. I really believe Celestino will be assigned to the 60-day IL for one spot. Rocco has directly said that he would like at least one multi-inning reliever (Rodriquez, Hoffman, Sánchez, de Leon, and perhaps Oliver Ortega could step in). 
 

Dennis Santana can’t be optioned, so if he doesn’t make the team, that will open a roster spot. Lots of balls in the air and decisions to be made. The only sure thing is that there will be a lot of changes in the course of the season. 

[JD-TWINS]

Can’t be picking up guys for free after Spring Training has started with any real confidence they may make your team! Am ignoring these 2 guys. Alcala - high 80’s vs. 95.3MPH is a great initial outing vs. a non-starter. Don’t know what to believe? Assuming, if he’s pitching in games he feels OK.

Henriquez is done in game situations until mid-April at a minimum……can’t get shutdown and be full go 4 weeks later.

Hand has 6-7 years of success……not as sharp lately but certainly not washed! Experience with relievers and their ability in tight situations overrides spin rates & velocity. Gotta have decent stuff but don’t need to dominate with stuff - location, speed change, & courage/experience are what makes pitchers - especially relievers. I think it would be a worthwhile $3 million, with some incentives on top!

Hand - Moran - Thielbar - Jax - Duran - Pagan - López - Long guy (Sands - Winder - ??)

Scary, since we don’t have Hand - are worried about Moran’s control - have little faith in López - less faith in Pagan - no I.D. on who the long guy might be……….stated above Megill & Alcala are wildcards!

Balazovic & SWR might be an infusion for a short guy & long guy by end of May!

 

[Blyleven2011]

Spring training  early may not mean a whole lot but eventually  it will mean something ...

Bring the best and proven players  north that have earned it  , don't place someone in AAA just because he has options so we can keep someone else that didn't earn it because they are out of options  ...

It's early , so all is calm ...

[jorgenswest]

On 3/2/2023 at 6:15 AM, Cody Pirkl said:

Though the Twins claimed no young starters would begin the year in the bullpen

My take was a little different. I interpreted it was the young pitchers will prepare as starters. That made sense to me as transitioning to a bullpen role is easier than ramping up to start. I didn’t think it would prevent them from starting a young pitcher in the bullpen if there was a need.

On 3/2/2023 at 6:15 AM, Cody Pirkl said:

Spring Training performances should be taken with a grain of salt, but they matter more for some players than others.

Spring training stats are useless but I do think spring training performance does matter. We count on the skill of the Twins staff to judge that performance,

[stringer bell]

After listening to Bonnes and Nick Nelson today, I feel like there is a bit more clarity in regard to the bullpen. There are four guys comprising the high-leverage (back end) of the bullpen--Jorge Lopez, Caleb Thielbar, Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax. They are locks to make the team and will be the guys to get most of the wins and saves. 

The second tier will be guys occasionally in high-leverage, but often in middle situations. Jorge Alcala, Emilio Pagan, Jovani Moran, Trevor Megill and Dennis Santana. They will sometimes be asked to get more than three outs. Someone else could also join this group and not all five will go north for Opening Day. 

Finally, Rocco would like to have a guy who is really a long reliever, perhaps nominally a starter. This was Josh Winder's role early in 2022, but eventually he joined the rotation. Cole Sands, perhaps Winder again or a host of non-roster pitchers could figure here. 

As the season progresses, there doubtless will be changes and adjustments. It would not be a surprise to see several guys using up their allotted number of optional assignments and a lot of names not shown here to get opportunities.

[Linus]

This bullpen is not good enough. By the all star break we will be wondering why they didn’t do more to shore up the bullpen.