Starter or Reliever Series: Josh Winder

[Cody Christie]

Many of baseball's all-time great relief pitchers started their careers as starting pitchers. The Twins' 40-man roster is littered with players searching for their long-term roles to find a permanent spot at the big-league level.

Image courtesy of Jonathan Dyer, USA TODAY Sports

Entering last season, Jhoan Duran had been a starting pitcher for his entire career. A lengthy injury history made the Twins reconsider his long-term role with the club. He was shifted to the bullpen and became one of the team's most valuable assets. Only some players can be as successful in transitioning to the bullpen, but there are multiple players the Twins may consider shifting to a bullpen role during the upcoming season.

Josh Winder joined the Twins organization as a seventh-round pick in the 2018 MLB Draft from Virginia Military Institute. He made nine starts (38 1/3 innings) in rookie ball after signing and posted a 3.72 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP and 42 strikeouts. During 2019, he spent the year at Low-A and lowered his ERA to 2.65 with a 118-to-30 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 125 2/3 innings. Winder led the Midwest League in ERA and WHIP during the 2019 season. He was putting himself on the prospect map, but then the pandemic took away a season. 

Winder added strength during the shutdown and saw his velocity jump coming into 2021. The Twins had Winder skip High-A coming out of the pandemic, which meant he split time between Double-A and Triple-A. Due to injury, his season started in May, but he dominated for Wichita. In 10 games, he had a 1.98 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP with 10.7 K/9. The Twins promoted him to Triple-A, but shoulder fatigue ended his season after four starts at that level. It was a disappointing end to what could have been a breakout season. 

Season in Review 2022
Last spring, Winder was in the running to win a spot in the starting rotation before the team signed Chris Archer at the end of March. He still made the Opening Day roster to help add depth out of the bullpen. His first five appearances were strong as he limited the opposition to four earned runs in 22 1/3 innings. However, he struggled in his subsequent two appearances and ended up on the Injured List with a right shoulder impingement.

He worked his way back to the big-league level, but his shoulder continued to bother him throughout the season. He went on the Triple-A Injury List in July with right shoulder impingement syndrome and didn't throw a bullpen until the middle of August. He returned to the big leagues in September, but the Twins had already fallen out of the division race. Overall, he made 15 appearances with the Twins, and four were out of the bullpen. He posted a 4.70 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a 47-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Projections for 2023
Winder is coming off a somewhat eventful off-season. His name popped up in trade rumors because he was the initial trade piece requested by the Royals for Michael A. Taylor. Minnesota balked at that request, and Kansas City lowered its asking price to two relievers, Evan Sisk and Steven Cruz. Both pitchers are considered relievers, and this might point to the Twins believing Winder can still be an asset as a starting pitcher.

Winder also dealt with shoulder issues as he started ramping up for the season, which means he's a little behind entering camp. Early in his career, Winder's fastball sat in the low 90s, but he averaged 94 mph last season and can hit in the upper-90s. His slider velocity sits in the mid-80s, and he throws this pitch a third of the time. His changeup and curve have helped him to keep big-league batters off-balanced, and his increase in velocity makes those pitches more of a weapon. He pounds the strike zone and limits walks, which can be ideal for a starting pitcher. 

Summary
For 2023, the Twins need to find a way to keep Winder healthy no matter what role he fulfills for the organization.

The Twins have worked to alter his mechanics, but his shoulder has been problematic for multiple seasons. During instructional league play in 2020, his velocity was even higher than what he has showcased in big-league action. These totals were in smaller sample sizes, which might indicate the bullpen being his long-term role. His college experience means he will be 26 years old for the entire 2023 season. Winder will start the year on track to be a starter, but his shoulder concerns mean the team should shift him to the bullpen in 2023. 

Can Winder's shoulder hold up to the rigors of being a starter? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

OTHER POSTS IN THE SERIES
-Ronny Henriquez

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[Dave The Dastardly]

Given Winder has been stricken with the Twins' Dreaded Impingement Malaise, thus suggesting reduced time on the mound until, if ever, he fully recovers I'd say the logical path forward for the man leads straight to the bullpen. With a slow build-up he might actually prove to be the proverbial long reliever much bemoaned as lacking by many TD followers.

And there is nothing to prevent moving Winder from the pen into a starting role, if he's no longer impinged, as other starters fall by the wayside. Impingement, as we have come to learn, runs rampant through the Twins staff, as well as through Twins fans; the latter perhaps from hoisting too many desultory libations.

 

[PatPfund]

In theory, I love Winder as a starting pitcher. He looked far better in that role last year than Bundy or Archer, but then the shoulder flared up again, and then again in the off-season. He may have a future as a starter, but right now the Twins are pretty deep in SPs, and Winder should try limited innings to both get and keep himself healthy for a season. He also really needs to be of use soon or the Twins are going to be forced to trade-low/waive/lose Winder before or during the next Rule 5 draft.

So for this year, I'd try to build him as an RP, because there are a few iffy pieces in the 'pen (yeah, I'm looking at you Megill, Pagán, and Moran). (Dobnak could be a dark horse to supplant somebody as well.)

[nicksaviking]

I'd let Winder legitimately compete for an opening day spot in the bullpen, like he did last year. Typically, I'd be happy to keep rolling with him as a starter, as with that velocity, he does have promise, but since he's probably behind SWR, Varland and Ober on the enthusiasm meter in AAA alone, I'd probably make the switch to the pen as soon as the Twins find enough other starters to fill out the rotation in St. Paul.

[Doctor Gast]

I've only seen him as long relief/ spot SP, where thrived in '22. Only when they tried to extend him in the rotation, he started to have problems w/ his shoulder. He said that he's been working on strengthening his shoulder. I'd still put him in that long relief/ spot SP role and slowly see if he can make that transition. We have a few SPs that can give us a few innings, there's no need to rush him.

[roger]

None of us have a clue what the Twins plans are for this young man.  Nor do we know the real condition of his shoulder. 

What I do know is that I really enjoyed watching him pitch in the minors two years ago when he was as good as anyone in the organization.  Hopefully, he can get his health back and stay healthy.  Then will be fun to watch him be successful in whatever role the Twins determine is best for he and the team.

[HerbieFan]

I think the path is pretty clear for 2023.  He's headed to St. Paul as a starter.  Any more injury or production issues and he moves permanently to the bullpen to see if that's a better role for him....both in terms of health and the success he does or does not have.  

[old nurse]

If the crack training team has worked to strengthen the shoulder properly there should not be a reason for Winder to not be a starter. 

[mikelink45]

I have no idea.  I know that the SP rotation is more likely to block him than the BP so I would favor the BP to start with..  

[twins_89]

My guess is that Winder ends up in the bullpen for the same reason that Duran ended up there. When a guy has repeated injury problems over multiple seasons it makes sense to see if a move to the bullpen can keep him off the IL.

[DocBauer]

IMO...excluding the FO initially stating nobody was currently planned to move to the pen...it makes sense to keep him in a starting role. He's got 4 pitches and good velocity. He looked really, really good at AA in 2021 before his shoulder flared up. For NOW, I dismiss his shoulder issue as A] nothing has actually been found to be wrong with it at this point, and B] Winder has been working with the new training staff to build his arm back up. And I have to again reference the lockout last year in which players/pitchers were allowed ZERO contact with ANY team personnel. Gray and Mahle have been pretty honest/vocal about the lockout and short ST affecting them.

Winder looked good early in 2022. His final WHIP wasn't bad, and his K-BB numbers were solid. All as a rookie coming off injury and the lockout. There's just no reason to move him permanently to the pen just yet. My caveat is...for Winder and just about everyone else...I want the staff to be the best and deepest it can be. And even if you have a great 6 guys in the pen, what if you struggle in the last 2 spots? In that case, virtually EVERYONE should be in play to fill out the pen. Milb is about development, and depth, but MLB is about winning. And Winder, or anyone else, could help do that and move back to the rotation in 2024. There's a few teams like the Cardinals and Ray's who have done this successfully. But for now, Winder should remain a starter.

[IndianaTwin]

Starter. 

Assume the five veterans and Ober are options 1-6. Beyond that, Winder and Varland enter the preseason as the assumed Nos. 7 and 8, unless you want to consider Dobnak and his guaranteed contract ahead of them.

Based on prior history, you WILL use Nos. 7 and 8 reasonably early in the year, very likely by late May/early June. With what he’s shown, give those two the opportunity to be that those options, on the chance that you very well be needing as many as a dozen starts. Otherwise you’re looking at the Cole Sands or the retreads on minor league contract to be that 7 or 8  

Similarly, they already have 10+ reliever options to cycle through. Use those up first before going to Winder or Varland in the pen, knowing that you are going to need all those and more as well. The thing is, knowing that any new reliever is going to start at the bottom of the pecking order, it’s much easier to find an 11th bullpen option than it is to find a 7th or 8th starter. 

In my opinion, there are only two reasons to move him to the pen. One is if he gets a number of MLB starts and demonstrates that he isn’t going to make it as a starter, but he shows enough to think he’s got enough to give the pen a shot. Think Duffey and Jax as the examples. I don’t think Winder has disproven he can be a starter yet.

The other is the Liriano approach, which the Cards and Braves have also done and which has been referenced. I don’t remember the specifics on Liriano, but I think the typical Cards/Braves use of this strategy has been in the case of someone knocking down the door in AAA, but is not needed as a starter at the MLB level. So, if the rotation is doing well AND Winder is blowing off people’s drawers in the minors, then sure, go there is a bullpen option is needed, sure. But the thing is, that scenario doesn’t play itself out until July/August, maybe even after the trade deadline. 

So, starter. 

[Parfigliano]

WTF is shoulder impingement cause it really seems to have found a home in guys wearing a Twins uni.  Hope it is something the new training-med staff can more competently address.

[sampleSizeOfOne]

14 hours ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

proverbial long reliever

Now i am wondering what proverbs pertain to long relievers...

 

[sun]

Another starter who is on the bubble. It's doesn't matter if you call him a long reliever or a starter. Functionally how many innings can he pitch and can he stay healthy while doing it? If we need extra guys who can pitch 3 or 4 innings and he can perform then that's how he should be used. If a guy gets injured by pushing him then the question is easily answered. Pitchers aren't expected to deliver 90 - 100 "effective" pitches anymore so they need to be managed.  It seems that sending guys to AAA to be starters only wears them out for when the Twins need them. 

I don't care if he's called a starter or not. just make sure that he can deliver enough pitches for when we need him to take over a game or spot start, whatever you want to label it. The most important thing is that he's effective for the 3-4 innings that he pitches, either as a starter or a long reliever. Just don't expect too much from guys who are "bubble starters." Forget the longer starts by starters, In order to win playoff games we need guys who can be platooned.. Two of them might get through 6-7 innings because rarely will one be able to do it alone against the big money teams, at least not if the Twins want playoff wins. Maybe they need to be kept stretched out but their pitch counts need to be managed to prevent recurring injuries. If they can't stay healthy pitching 3 or 4 innings in the bigs then they won't stay healthy pitching 5-6 in AAA. There's always next year 4 him..

[Dave The Dastardly]

8 hours ago, sampleSizeOfOne said:

Now i am wondering what proverbs pertain to long relievers...

 

Thou Shall Want

[JD-TWINS]

Need long relief guy…….he can throw 25-50 pitches a couple times per week. Best use of his skills without creating fatigue…..allows him to let it go when he does pitch. May need to give him a minimum of 3 days between appearances…..which is OK if he can go 2 plus innings per appearance!