Twins 2023 X-Factors: LHP Jovani Moran

[Adam Friedman]

Can Jovani Moran keep his strikeout rate high enough and walk rate low enough to be a weapon for the Twins in 2023?

Image courtesy of Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

In 40 ⅔ innings in 2022, Jovani Moran indicated he is ready to be an impact reliever for the Twins in 2023. He posted a 2.21 ERA and 1.78 FIP in 2022, driven by a high strikeout rate and ground ball rate. Beyond the topline numbers, Moran was great against both right-handed and left-handed hitters. He gave up a .554 OPS against lefties and a laughable .458 OPS against righties. His terrific changeup drives the reverse splits. 

While his strong 2022 performance leaves the Twins optimistic, Moran's severe lack of control throughout his career remains a question mark. He has had mammoth walk rates for most of his career, but the similarly eye-popping strikeout rates have allowed him to remain effective. 

The Twins seem to trust Moran as the second left-handed reliever on the roster behind Caleb Theilbar, and they chose not to add a lefty in free agency. To pay off that trust, Moran must maintain strikeout rates well above 30%, which he has maintained throughout his professional career. He will also need to find a way to keep walks as low as possible, but he has consistently had a walk rate above 10%, which falls comfortably in Fangraphs' "awful" categorization for that statistic. 

Digging deeper into Moran's 2022 with the Twins, he had an elite 32.9% K% and a dreadful 11% BB%. Those are extreme numbers on each end of the K/BB spectrum. He also had a 48.9% ground ball rate, which is above average and a good sign when the ball is put into play, as ground balls are less likely to do damage than line drives or home runs. The high ground ball rate has been consistent throughout his career, almost as consistent as the walks and strikeouts. 

Assuming he maintains the strikeout rate and ground ball rate, Moran is likely to be a very solid option out of the bullpen for the Twins and likely to be trusted in medium and high-leverage situations regularly. However, lowering his walk rate could alter the perception of Moran within the Twins organization and amongst their fans. Bringing it below 10% could help make him an elite reliever and a real weapon in an already talented and deep bullpen.  

In September and an appearance in October, after spending most of August in Triple-A, Moran showed signs of improving his command and control while maintaining his elite strikeout numbers. In 14 ⅓ innings, he still had an elite K/9 of 11.3 and a very good 1.88 BB/9, leading to a minuscule FIP of 1.78. 

The 1.88 BB/9 is entirely inconsistent with any full season he's had. He has averaged 4.6 for his career. However, if he can land in a middle ground between those points, Moran would force himself into the mix for high-leverage appearances and even put some pressure on Caleb Thielbar for the lefty matchups- despite his reverse splits. 

The Twins are relying on Moran being at least a reliable middle reliever. But he can be more than that if he carries his command and control from September into 2023. Then, Rocco Baldelli would have a strikeout monster who keeps the ball on the ground to utilize against both lefties and righties, with minimal downside.

What are your thoughts on Jovani Moran and his role with the 2023 Twins? Can he turn into the dominant reliever we would love to see, or would the Twins be wise to add some lefty reliever depth to go with Danny Coulombe, Locke St. John, Tyler Webb and other minor-league signings? Leave a COMMENT below. 

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[Rod Carews Birthday]

Thanks for an excellent breakdown.  If he can maintain his late season numbers, Moran will indeed be extremely valuable and also be insurance in case there is any fall off from Theilbar from the left side.  There are always plenty of innings to be taken care of by the bullpen so we’re going to need many good pitchers to step up and maintain consistency. 

[Doctor Gast]

"In September and an appearance in October, after spending most of August in Triple-A, Moran showed signs of improving his command and control while maintaining his elite strikeout numbers. In 14 ⅓ innings, he still had an elite K/9 of 11.3 and a very good 1.88 BB/9, leading to a minuscule FIP of 1.78." 

No matter the small sample size, we know he has it in him. He says he'll have an impact on the '23 Twins, I believe him. 

[MN_ExPat]

I think/believe we are starting to see the maturation of Jovani at this point.  Do I think we will see him maintain a BB rate as low as the end of last season?  Probably not quite that low, at least not on a consistent basis, but I do feel that he is learning to trust his "stuff" a little more and we will see the BB rate somewhere in the middle of the two as Adam stated in the article.

If that's the case and Jovani can find that nice middle ground... he's going to be solid, because that CU is 🤮🤮🤮.

[roger]

Don't see a problem from a kid who will strike out 1 or 2 every inning while allowing a walk in every 3 innings.  The way many batters look sick hitting against him, he is a young man I want to see pitching in the later innings of Twins games.

[mikelink45]

Much better than another dumpster pick up.  Give him a chance.

[Parfigliano]

No shift may hurt him a little on groundballs but hopefully he has figured it out regarding W's.

[PatPfund]

The question you have at the top is really THE question. And we don't know the answer yet, and really won't without gameplay; a 14 inning cherry-picked stretch is a nice but very slender reed of encouragement. I also saw him strike out the side one inning last year, then get pulled after walking the bases full the next, and that wildness won't play long in high-leverage settings.

I'm hoping he figured something out (trust him more than Megill and Pagán, but that is a super-low bar), but I'm also not holding my breath, and wouldn't be surprised to see him riding the Green Line a few times this summer.

[old nurse]

The effectiveness for Moran lies not in the walks being further reduced as much as it is will he be able to continue a low babip and continue to be difficult to hit HR off him. 0 hr in. 49 innings will not be sustainable.   Will more exposure bring the knowledge to hit what he throws?  If it is nope, he is back end material. 

[DocBauer]

He's been consistent in high walk numbers. But he's been equally consistent with SO and ground ball numbers. (I want to say he's also been consistent with low hard hit contact as well). He keeps walking 11% of batters, he's still very good and very effective because of his excellent other numbers and the ability to be effective against both side batters.

He does find a way to be just a little more consistent and get the BB% down below 10%, he could/should be outstanding, not just very good.

But I have to say, while the OP is about Moran, if Alacala is all the way back...or will be soon...and looks like his second half 2021 and very early 2022, the Twins have a PAIR of X factors that gives the pen a really, really nice top 6.

[Karbo]

Hate the new logo on the cap!