Justin Morneau staying or leaving?

[Brodin4Calder]

Justin Morneau is one of the best batters in the league when healthy. In 2010 he suffered a concussion halfway through the season and didnt return. He played 81GP, 18HR, 56RBI, and .345AVG. Those are MVP type numbers that we havent seen since because he has been fighting through his concussions and other injuries. I saw last year as a year to stay healthy and return to baseball. He wasnt himself but he did stay healthy.

 

This year he looks like he is finaly returning to himself. Hes played 32GP, 2HR, 24RBI and .283AVG. Hes looking better each game too. He just looks like the Morneau we love to watch everygame, and hes a huge reason the Twins are above .500 after 33GP.

 

So what will the Twins do with him now that his contract is up after this year? Hes won an MVP and when Healthy hes a 100RBI+, 25HR+, .280AVG+ hitter. Hes finaly retuned to his old form and is only 31. My guess is the Twins do what the Twins do best, they will probably trade him this year. They have one of the best hitters in the league but they dont see it like that, they see money they could save. I mean they did trade the best pitcher in the league for the last 5 years at the time they traded Santana. What I think they should do is if by around all star break he has continued to put up big numbers they should keep him, its an obvious decision. Theres not alot of 100RBI+ guys with a good average in the league so if you have one you have to hold onto it.

 

Its time for the Twins to stop cutting our best players and Payroll and start looking at winning. They shouldnt let Morneau get away, hes a special player that doesnt come around often. The Twins have probably their best group of prospects in atleast 10+ years coming up in the next year or 2 and could really do some damage with them and our veterans if they are still here.

[stringer bell]

Are you watching the same hitter I'm watching? Morneau is getting some hits, but most of the power is gone. His birthday is this month and he'll turn 32 in a few days. By the time the Twins are good again he'll be beyond his assumed prime years.

 

The Twins can't and shouldn't give him anything near what he is making now. I can't see how they can cut his salary in half and that he would accept such a contract without looking for better offers and probably receiving one. Morneau is going on three years since the serious concussion and just hasn't produced like the great hitter he was before the injury.

[Brodin4Calder]

Are you watching the same hitter I'm watching? Morneau is getting some hits, but most of the power is gone. His birthday is this month and he'll turn 32 in a few days. By the time the Twins are good again he'll be beyond his assumed prime years.

 

The Twins can't and shouldn't give him anything near what he is making now. I can't see how they can cut his salary in half and that he would accept such a contract without looking for better offers and probably receiving one. Morneau is going on three years since the serious concussion and just hasn't produced like the great hitter he was before the injury.

 

Am I watching the same thing you ask?

 

Morneaus average is better than .280 and he has 24 RBIs. Hes on pace for 120RBIs, is that not producing? When did 120RBIs turn into not producing, ha and you say hes getting "some" hits. I take it you dont really know baseball by what you said, but Morneau was never a huge power hitter. He had 129RBIs in 08' and only 23HRs, his career high is 34HRs. Thats not a big power guy, he drives in runs and has a good average plain and simple. And 32 isnt old at all for baseball, 35 isnt even that old.

 

The Twins have to stop getting rid of our best players because they wanna save money, I understand that you have been sucked into their sick thinking but you can get out. Morneau has many years left of being a very productive player, yes he had injuries but everyone does. He is on pace for 120RBIs and an average over .280 and hes only getting better every game.

[one_eyed_jack]

I don't think it's an easy call with Morneau. He hasn't returned to peak form, but he's been better than he generally was in 2011 and 2012.

 

The range of possibilities with him is huge - one bonk on the noggin could end his career, or he could find his old self and end up in the MVP conversation.

 

Do you move him for whatever you can and go with Parm at first? Or do you keep him, hoping he'll give you a few more good year?

 

I dunno. I'd actually lean towards keeping him unless someone makes an offer too good to refuse. The free agent market may not be as strong for him. It's a pretty good free agent class, and you have to wonder whether the expensive train wrecks in Toronto and Anaheim will give some folks pause about throwing money around. That said, all it takes is one dodo to overpay a guy.

 

We shall see. My gut says he's gone at the deadline.

[Brodin4Calder]

I don't think it's an easy call with Morneau. He hasn't returned to peak form, but he's been better than he generally was in 2011 and 2012.

 

The range of possibilities with him is huge - one bonk on the noggin could end his career, or he could find his old self and end up in the MVP conversation.

 

Do you move him for whatever you can and go with Parm at first? Or do you keep him, hoping he'll give you a few more good year?

 

I dunno. I'd actually lean towards keeping him unless someone makes an offer too good to refuse. The free agent market may not be as strong for him. It's a pretty good free agent class, and you have to wonder whether the expensive train wrecks in Toronto and Anaheim will give some folks pause about throwing money around. That said, all it takes is one dodo to overpay a guy.

 

We shall see. My gut says he's gone at the deadline.

 

If someone makes a great offer I would say move him too. But it has too be an amazing offer(Bundy, Walker, Fernandez, Cole), if we could get one of the very best pitching prospects I would say do it otherwise do not get rid of him. Already this season he looks like himself, his average is up and hes on pace for 120RBIs.

 

Us Twins fans HAVE to stop having this attitude of not wanting to overpay players. Yea a player could have a down year or get hurt but to be good you have to have good players which means paying them when its time.

 

If Morneau keeps up his pace into the deadline than we should either trade him if the offer is amazing or keep him and pay the guy. 32 is not an old baseball player, theres so many guys alot older still producing alot.

[TheLeviathan]

Man I'm praying for a power surge soon, he's doing some things well and making harder contact. But he seems to be struggling to get around on the ball again to pull and drive it.

[Shane Wahl]

Morneau for a 100-200 prospect (think May, Kepler, Berrios, Polanco) would be fine enough for me!

[stringer bell]

B4C--I see that you have started several threads and the drift of each one is that the Twins won't spend the money to truly contend. I actually at least partially agree with you. However, retaining Justin Morneau is not a smart move to make, especially with his injury history and lack of productivity for that last three years.

 

Run Batted In is an opportunity stat and Morneau has had more than his fair share of opportunities. He is OPSing only .745 with runners on base and an even lower .735 with runners in scoring position. With RISP and two out, he is 2-14. He has batted behind two guys that get on a lot and he hasn't produced enough to justify his contract, not even close.

 

As I mentioned in passing, given his current salary of 15M per year, for the Twins to sign Morneau, they probably would have to propose a significant salary cut and I suspect that it would be very difficult for any player to accept that. Accepting a lower salary from another team makes more sense.

 

Finally, you say that Morneau isn't really a power hitter. He averaged nearly 30 homers per year between '06 and '09. I consider that a power hitter. You picked out the season where Morneau hit "only" 23 homers, but you don't mention that in that same year, he had 47 doubles, giving him over 70 XBHs. This year, Morneau has ten extra base hits including just two homers with nearly 20% of the season gone. Yes, Morneau has gotten several hits, but his OPS is still only .720, hardly the kind of numbers that generate an eight-digit contract. Almost all major league players have peaks and valleys and as far as batting average goes, Morneau is riding a wave, but the other numbers still don't add up to a star player, much less an MVP contender. Add in Morneau's age and history of injuries and late-season fades and I see an extremely poor risk for a large contract extension.

[IdahoPilgrim]

Morneau is past his prime, and while he may still be MLB-calibre, he is no longer an all-star and never will be again. Time to either sign him to a radically reduced contract, or shop him.

 

As far as paying him, that's what we did in his last contract - that was his payday. He's not getting a better one in the future, either from us or from anybody else.

 

Your basic premise of payroll equals success is fundamentally flawed. Stating it over and over does not change that. Nor does being critical of other fans. Just because others don't agree with you does not mean you are right and they are wrong, nor does it mean that they have sick thinking.

 

I don't expect you to listen, though, so this will be the last time I add to a thread you start.

[old nurse]

Mourneau is batting about as well as an average player would. That is not good. Compared to other first base/DH types he is batting poorly. He would need to return to form to get a 100-200 prospect unless the other teams think that he is being pitched around because the batters following him are not exactly on fire either.

[kab21]

This thread confuses me. Morneau has a .720 OPS with a .111 isoP. Those are middle infielder offensive stats and not even average 1Bman stats. He definitely isn't the hitter that Brodin4Calder is trying to project.

 

I think it might be in the Twins best interests to reach a relatively cheap deal (5M) and bring him back for a year or two. Unlike Liriano he's a fan favorite and a great guy to have on the team. Parmelee has also done nothing so far to show that he has a future as an MLB starter although I'm optimistic about him.

[PseudoSABR]

I don't think we know what Morneau will be over the next four or so years. What I see is lots of places for regret upon being assumptious one way or another. We have to let his season play out, and then we'll arrive at an obvious conclusion to let him go, or the happy circumstance of whether to resigbn an all-star level player.

 

At worse, Morneau is middling again (750 OPS) and Parmlee is somehow worse, so the idea of resigning craptastic production suddenly become palatable.

[kab21]

This is Morneau's 3rd season since he was injured. Unless he gets hot I think it's safe to say that really good Morneau isn't coming back. He's now the Lyle Overbay version of Justin Morneau.

[Craig Arko]

What I think actually will happen is that if a good trade offer doesn't happen, they will make him a qualifying offer. Which he will probably accept. It still leaves the question of Parmelee's future.

[stringer bell]

Questions: The qualifying offer is $13M, correct? Should the Twins actually put that kind of money forward for the Lyle Overbay Justin Morneau? Also, is there a maximum pay cut that can be offered? That is, if Morneau is now making a base of $15, can they cut it as low as $10M or $8M?

[stringer bell]

Back to the original comment, the best thing about Morneau so far this year has been his defense. He has been outstanding at digging out errant throws and otherwise fielded his position more than capably. Secondly, he's been in the lineup every day but one and at first all but one of the days he's been in the lineup.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Three month rentals of mediocre first basemen don't return top 100 prospects, much less top 10 prospects.

 

Lets just put that idea to bed now.

[RedBull34]

Ideally, Morneau gets something going and the Twins can get a deal like the Beltran deal a couple of years back, but right now nobody's going to want him for much. Not even sure who they would trade him to since most playoff contenders have a good 1B. The A's?

[Craig Arko]

Questions: The qualifying offer is $13M, correct? Should the Twins actually put that kind of money forward for the Lyle Overbay Justin Morneau? Also, is there a maximum pay cut that can be offered? That is, if Morneau is now making a base of $15, can they cut it as low as $10M or $8M?

 

The $13 million is what I've been reading. The club offers it if they don't have a better option, and it's not clear (to me) that they do for next year. If they do somehow have a better option, then I hope they run with it.

 

If Parmelee steps it up that could make the choice easier. We'll have to see about that.

[AScheib50]

Morneau has certainly not returned to his old form like the OP suggests. More strangely he makes it seem the Twins are cheap and getting rid of it's best players in like 4 different threads. I don't think that's true. The Twins locked up Morneau with a big contract that covered his best years. I can't think of anyone they let go who went on to be better with their new team. Torii Hunter is the only player who has justified the contract they got on the open market when I think of it.

 

That said, Morneau would be great to have back at a cheap rate, on maybe a 2 year deal...I'm not sold on Parmalee yet. I see Morneau's time with the Twins ending a bit like Doug Mientkiewicz's did. A fan favorite slowly being pushed out by an up and coming prospect...perhaps Miguel Sano sliding in at first...

[Thrylos]

Questions: The qualifying offer is $13M, correct? Should the Twins actually put that kind of money forward for the Lyle Overbay Justin Morneau? Also, is there a maximum pay cut that can be offered? That is, if Morneau is now making a base of $15, can they cut it as low as $10M or $8M?

 

That floor in pay cuts is for players on arbitration and under club control. Morneau will be a free agent after this season and a club can sign him to a minor league contract if they both agree to it (not that it will happen.)

 

I think that the Twins have to move on. They have a whole bunch of prospects coming up the ranks and Morneau (and Willingham and Doumit, btw, I put them on the same boat) will be blocking them. Would it be worth it to offer him maybe $2-3 M as a bench bat like they did with Thome a few years ago? Maybe, just because of the past. But I think they will be better off if they cut ties and let the young kids play.

[kab21]

That floor in pay cuts is for players on arbitration and under club control. Morneau will be a free agent after this season and a club can sign him to a minor league contract if they both agree to it (not that it will happen.)

 

This is true but Morneau actually has to hit the FA market for that to happen. And likewise the Twins can't offer him an extension for a significant paycut either.

[stringer bell]

This is true but Morneau actually has to hit the FA market for that to happen. And likewise the Twins can't offer him an extension for a significant paycut either.

 

So, when it comes to an extension, what is the maximum cut that can be given? If that number is unreasonable, the Twins would be basically forced to wait for free agency before offering a contract. Without many more balls like he hit in the second inning, I just can't see the Twins giving a qualifying offer.

[snepp]

I believe 20% is the maximum cut.

[stringer bell]

I believe 20% is the maximum cut.

So that would mean the minimum that the Twins could offer in an extension is $12M, basically too rich for what he has produced since 2010.

[cmathewson]

I'd make the qualifying offer. He's worth it. I wanted to see Parmelee for a month before I formed that opinion. I really don't think he's ready to replace Justin's production. I don't know about a longer deal for Justin, though. To me, that hinges on whether Sano can stay at third. If so, I'd offer something similar to the Willingham's deal, maybe a little better, say, 3/28 plus incentives.

[Thrylos]

I'd make the qualifying offer. He's worth it.

 

Morneau's .283/.326/.394 with 2 HRs in 150ish PAs is worth $13 million? Really? I bet Colabello or Parmelee can put the same numbers or better with $12.5 million to save...

[AScheib50]

Morneau's .283/.326/.394 with 2 HRs in 150ish PAs is worth $13 million? Really? I bet Colabello or Parmelee can put the same numbers or better with $12.5 million to save...

 

 

I'm on the fence about Parmalee taking over everyday at 1B. But I don't argue he could easily top Morneau's OPS. The 2 HR's and slugging .394 makes me nervous. It's great he's hitting in the .280s but he's gotta hit for power to be worth a new contract. Especially one worth 8 figures.

[mudcat14]

I don't have a problem with Parmelee taking over at first, for now. He's got a long way to go to lock the position down though. Bottom line on Morneau is that we can get at least similar production for a fraction of his cost. I'll be shocked if they don't move heaven and earth to deal him at the deadline for at least one higher tier prospect.

[cmathewson]

I don't get it. Where are all the people calling for us to spend the surplus on a guy who is behind only Kent Hrbek and Harmon Killebrew in 1b production? I don't think we need to worry about spending a few extra millions on a clear upgrade over any other guy in the organization. Colabello? Really? Has anyone watched this past week? Justin is killing it. If he keeps this up, $13 million will be a bargain.