3 "Make or Break" Prospects in 2023

[Cody Pirkl]

Prospects flame out every year in baseball. It’s just the nature of the game. From organizational depth to top prospects, no young player’s impact is guaranteed. Three former top Twins prospects have particularly important seasons on the horizon in 2023.

Image courtesy of Theo Tollefson, Twins Daily

The Twins have three prospects who have tailed off in recent seasons after sitting relatively high in the organizational rankings. Though they don’t share much in regards to their positions or skills, all three have reached a point in their careers where 2023 may reach “make or break” status.

Keoni Cavaco
The Twins were aiming for upside in 2019 when they selected Cavaco 13th overall, and Cavaco had shot up draft boards due to a stellar 2019 high school season. His raw tools were evident just by watching him connect with the baseball and run the bases. Unfortunately for the Twins, those tools just haven’t translated to professional baseball yet.

Cavaco hasn’t progressed above Low-A ball thus far. At age 21, that’s not a huge red flag, as patience is key with high school draft picks. In this case, Cavaco hasn’t done much to force the issue. In his three seasons, he’s failed to reach even league-average offensive output (though this totals just under 800 plate appearances). His 30%+ strikeout rate in each season has not been made up in the on base or slugging department, as he has yet to post an OPS above .633.

Cavaco also moved off of shortstop in 2022 to third base, a premium offensive position. He’s tumbled down prospect rankings for some time, but his 2023 season is very important if the 21 year old wants to keep himself in the conversation for the team’s future plans.

Aaron Sabato
Unlike Cavaco, Aaron Sabato was seen as more of a “safe” pick, though lacking upside because of his build and defensive profile. After simply dominating in two college seasons at North Carolina, the Twins saw a chance to grab a premium bat that could make all other questions irrelevant. The adjustment from college to professional baseball has been difficult thus far.

Sabato has flashed the offensive potential the Twins drafted, as he’s been above league average in A and A+ ball. He’s been extremely streaky, and while his on base ability and power continue to carry him, making contact continues to be an issue. Batting average has become far from the standard for valuable offensive players, but Sabato hit .226 in High-A ball for most of 2022 and struggled mightily hitting .179 in his first taste of Double-A action. His strikeout rate has consistently been above 30%. Twins fans know all too well that there’s a point of diminishing returns when it comes to things like on base ability and power making up for average. Sabato walking that tightrope in the low minors raises red flags.

With little to no defensive versatility, Sabato’s bat has to carry him in 2023. The power and on base ability appear to be real. The missing piece of the puzzle is the consistency, particularly with contact. If Sabato can find it in 2023, he’ll shoot up through the minors. If not, his prospect status will continue to plummet.

Jordan Balazovic
Fans have been hearing about Jordan Balazovic for years and continue to do so. Unfortunately it’s been for all the wrong reasons lately. After his prospect stock soared to new heights from 2019 through 2021, it’s all been downhill. While dealing with nagging injuries in 2022, Balazovic got absolutely crushed at Triple-A to the tune of a 7.39 ERA. A good final month improved his numbers and offered hope, but the damage to his prospect status was done. Balazovic had major questions headed into this spring.

This of course was before news dropped that Balazovic would be missing time due to an off-field altercation resulting in a broken jaw. Right at the beginning of likely the most important season of his professional career, Balazovic will be playing from behind because of off field choices, and the Twins do not seem pleased in the slightest.

In 2023, Jordan Balazovic not only has to make a complete 180 on the field production wise, but it appears he has to win back the trust of the organization that drafted him out of high school in 2016. Time is becoming a factor not because of his age, but because he now takes up a spot on the 40 man roster. As a team that churns through their roster as the Twins do, another year of struggles from Balazovic would put both parties in a difficult situation.

It’s safe to say all three names listed have the talent to bounce back in a big way in 2023, and just some minor changes could go a long way. Are there any other prospects coming up on a make or break 2023? Do you agree with the three listed? Let us know below.

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[Vanimal46]

No arguments here. All 3 of these players are on the edge of flaming out in the minors, which is disappointing. Won’t be the first or last time a prospect I like gets derailed in the minors. 

[Parfigliano]

To me Balazovic is the one really on the edge.  His performance numbers are headed in the wrong direction.  He is gonna start spring training behind everyone due to off field stuff and managements short terse statement regarding the offfield incident can easily be read to mean that there better not be another off field incident.

[Thegrin]

I've written off Cavaco & Sabato. If they start playing well, I'll pay attention. Otherwise they are not in my "Hope Chest". :)

 

[mikelink45]

Nicely done - I have followed them through TD and I have not seen any upside on the first two.  I dreamed of Balazovic jumping in to the rotation a year ago, now I am wait and see. 

[nicksaviking]

Yeah, unfortunate, but so it goes with MLB draft picks. Even if their dreams don't come true, at least Sabato and Cavaco still got paid well as 1st round picks. Balazovic did pretty well himself getting an over-slot deal in the 5th round for a major payday as well. Certainly their goal is to have a long MLB career, but those are pretty good consolation prizes.

As for the Twins end, if they don't pan out, that'll stink, but thankfully there are plenty of other fish in in the depths of the minor league system, many of whom look really, really promising despite getting much less fanfare.

[gman]

I expect all three could wind up in someone's minor league system next year should the Twins decide to drop them or simply not include them on the 40 man at year end. As far as Cavaco and Sabato go, we have players in the minors passing them by and pushing for roster spots. For Balazovic though, pitching is always critical and he was steadily cruising through the system and I think everyone was expecting him to be pitching for the Twins this year or at least challenging for a spot in the majors. Hopefully he gets it together this year soon.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

This is a sad article. But such is life sometimes for  each of us.  "For of all sad words of tongue or pen, The saddest are these: "It might have been!" 

[HerbieFan]

Geez, nailed it Cody.  Cavaco was a reach when they took him, but to be fair drafting high school players is a complete crap shoot.  I'll be most disappointed if Balazovic doesn't get it straightened out...the organization has enough organizational depth of position players.  Pitching though....there just is never enough.  Balazovic returning to pre-2022 form would be a big boost.

[jorgenswest]

Balazovic May only have a few months to make it before the Twins have a 40 man roster need.

Cavaco and Sabato followed by Soularie should have been knocking on the door to the 40 due to rule 5 status this winter. Rodriguez, Martin and Salas are givens. Ricardo Olivar could make some more noise. Alejandro Hildalgo might be the only possible pitcher. This is a pretty small group to consider relative to other years. They really need Cavaco or Sabato to step up.

[Linus]

Sabato was the worst pick. Essentially a one tool player and he is taken in the first round. Even if he succeeded he would be easily replaceable. There are CJ Cron types all over the place. Cavaco is a bust but at least he had some tools that you could project. 

[Major League Ready]

12 minutes ago, Linus said:

Sabato was the worst pick. Essentially a one tool player and he is taken in the first round. Even if he succeeded he would be easily replaceable. There are CJ Cron types all over the place. Cavaco is a bust but at least he had some tools that you could project. 

For me, the Cavaco pick was worse because they had a guy with a 65 hit tool / 70 speed and great defense there for the taking.  The guy being Corbin Carroll.  The perfect guy to go along with Buxton given the amount of time he misses.

[DocBauer]

7I am always cautious when I hear "fast riser", especially for a HS kid. I get that Cavaco is athletic, and, IIRC, didn't participate in a lot of camps and area code games, etc. And maybe I'm remembering incorrectly. But I wasn't crazy about his selection and the "fact riser" comments. I know he's athletic and talented. But he's exactly done WHAT since drafted to expect something more? Not trying to be harsh, but 2023 just has to be his last season to prove he actually has a future.

Man, I just got done with a whole post about Sabato in another thread. (Heavy sigh) I would bet NOBODY expected this kind of poor hit tool coming out of college. He was available at 27 when selected because of being a 1B/DH player. He had a safe floor, and a ceiling that said he might be another Fred McGriff kind of producer. But so far, he just can't HIT. Power and OB% only gets you so far if you can't HIT, at least a little, at the milb level. Right now, his OPTIMAL contributions for a ML club would be as a Gallo with little or no defensive value. He needs to HIT at AA this year, turn his career around, be at least decent with the glove, and look like a Cruz Jr. type of hitter, or no way he's on the 40 man.

Balazovic is a different story all together. And not just because he's a pitcher. He was a top 100 prospect coming in to 2022. He had a bad knee. He tried to pitch through it, screwed up his mechanics while compensating, even when it was right, bad stuff got in to his head, whatever, etc, etc. I doubt he or the Twins will ever say one way or another he was healthy, or not, or when. But I've never been one to dismiss a top prospect after one poor season. Stuff happens. A late surge in 2022 to look more like the arm we all thought he might be gave me confidence and hope he'd be ready for 2023 and a turnaround.

And then this STUPID thing happened to begin his ST!

To his credit, I've heard Jordan arrived early to work out and get ready. I've heard, as most of you have, that he was hit by someone at a bar and broke his jaw, and this is going to mess up the beginning of his 2023 for sure. No charges against Balazovic as he never threw a punch. I don't know the kid. Maybe he was being a jerk. Maybe he was defending a woman's honor. Maybe he just got sucker punched by some idiot in jail right now.

Only the Twins and Balazovic know the truth. But regardless, his 2023 is off to a terrible start. IF THIS IS a maturation point in his career, it's a hard one. And if he has to spend most of 2023 at AAA to get himself right, you DON'T give up on a talented arm that could be part of the future. IF he is a victim....despite maybe being wrong place at the wrong time...you give him 2023 to get is body and head RIGHT. HOPEFULLY, he has at least a great 2nd half to put himself in place as a rotation piece  going forward.

[LA VIkes Fan]

Make it or break it is absolutely right on all three of these guys. Balazovic is the most disappointing because he seemed like he had a chance to be in the conversation for an MLB shot in 2023. Now, I'm not sure he even starts in AAA. He's behind Ober, SWR, Varland, Winder, Sands and Dobnak. That's the AAA rotation plus one. I think he has to go back to AA, prove himself, and hope he shows enough for the Twins to keep him around for a shot in 2024.  

[jkcarew]

Agree on all three. Balazovic maybe the most. On the 40-man…spinning his wheels means he’s already blocking anyone that might emerge from helping the team. 

[sftwinsfan]

At least Balazovic has only had one bad year thus far, so I have a little more hope for him. The other two haven't shown much of any sign of being productive since they've been drafted. Another you could add to the list could have been Blayne Enlow, but maybe he's where these guys would be after another rough year given he was outrighted. Still around though, so all hope is not lost for him either. 

[tony&rodney]

4 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

For me, the Cavaco pick was worse because they had a guy with a 65 hit tool / 70 speed and great defense there for the taking.  The guy being Corbin Carroll.  The perfect guy to go along with Buxton given the amount of time he misses.

Yes. I remember quite a few people thinking that a speedy defensive player with a great hit tool was the pick to make. Maybe ironic that Carroll has now shown some pop in his bat as well. But yah, Corbin Carroll was the guy many of us on. TD wanted at #13.

Then we just thought - perhaps Cavaco was missed by many evaluators; underrated. Oh well.

[tony&rodney]

Sabato made his money already and just needs to show some type of improvement for himself. Baseball has been tough for him the last few years.

Balazovic has looked lost on the mound in the last year. He gets this year to sort out his head and make a case why anyone should care about him. I hope he can turn the corner.

The post is right on. These three have quite a year ahead of them.

[Shaitan]

Balazovic is definitely make or break.

The others are lower in the system yet. I really don't care about #s below AA. Sure, good numbers are good but... sometimes it takes a while to figure it out. And a lot of 1st round picks have never struggled before pro ball, so it's a mental battle too.

The odds are stacked against all 3 for sure. Hopefully they learn from their mistakes and progress.

[D.C Twins]

Break x3

[DJL44]

On 2/25/2023 at 1:55 PM, nicksaviking said:

Balazovic did pretty well himself getting an over-slot deal in the 5th round for a major payday as well. Certainly their goal is to have a long MLB career, but those are pretty good consolation prizes.

7 years existing on a minor league baseball player's paycheck is going to eat up a $500,000 bonus.

[DJL44]

13 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Make it or break it is absolutely right on all three of these guys. Balazovic is the most disappointing because he seemed like he had a chance to be in the conversation for an MLB shot in 2023. Now, I'm not sure he even starts in AAA. He's behind Ober, SWR, Varland, Winder, Sands and Dobnak. That's the AAA rotation plus one. I think he has to go back to AA, prove himself, and hope he shows enough for the Twins to keep him around for a shot in 2024.  

If he's behind Randy Dobnak on a depth chart his chances of an MLB career are very slim. Balazovic hasn't had a good season since 2019 in A-ball. He was mediocre in Double-A in 2021 and horrible last year in AAA. The only reason to think he had a shot at MLB this year is the fact that he's on the 40-man roster.

[jmlease1]

All reasonable choices. Cavaco needs to start showing something, but isn't necessarily at a break point, just because he's still only 21. Even if he doesn't have a real breakout the Twins aren't going to be "sorry, kid, but it's just not working out." after this season unless he regresses even further. His age and tools will give him a little longer rope.

Sabato is increasingly in trouble. It doesn't matter if you have moonshot power if you can't make contact. He lit it up as a college hitter in a real league, but he's been pretty poor as a pro. Did his bat speed slow down since college? Is it the wooden bats? Pretty surprising to see a player who crushed it that much in college show so little straight out the gate, but at the end of the day he didn't actually play that much at North Carolina, and maybe that has something to do with it too. He played more games in his first year as a pro than he did in his whole college career, which might be an indicator.

Balazovic is the most disappointing. High school players don't make it all the time, and a lot of us were questioning Sabato from the jump, but Balazovic had shown so much promise and earned his way up the ranks so for him to have collapsed at AAA is a bummer. Coming off a messy, injury strewn year there was hope that it was a one-off and he could bounce back quickly, but the off-field incident is going to set him back again and clearly the team is unhappy with him.

[Otaknam]

They wouldn’t be the first top draft choices to flame out. But Balazovic should know better than to put himself in the situation where he gets his jaw broken in a fight. Just walk away for God’s sake sake! Lack of maturity that may derail his career. 

[saviking]

21 hours ago, Thegrin said:

I've written off Cavaco & Sabato. If they start playing well, I'll pay attention. Otherwise they are not in my "Hope Chest". :)

 

Totally with you and Balazovic is on his last gasp. With the quality of starting pitching in front of him I'd due the kid a favor and switch him to the bullpen.

[Blyleven2011]

Sabato will be eligible for rule 5 draft after this season so it's make or break for him ...

Blaze is on 40 man roster and it is also make or break for him ...

Cavaco is still young and needs to show he can make contact and hit , big money results in a big head , I remember his interview ,  ( said he would make the twins team in 4 years ) . He needs to get his head right or he will fail ...

We always pick on the first round choices or prospects that climb our top 30 prospect list and then fail , turn us into believers of them and then they disappoint us ...

 

 

[twins_89]

It's rare for players who have been in an organization for multiple seasons without showing anything (like Cavaco and Sabato) to suddenly break out.  Of the three, Balazovic is the only one who has ever looked like a legitimate prospect, and he is the only one I see having much chance of making it to the majors.