Building the Pitching Staff

[wabene]

10 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Derek Falvey and David Stearns both came from Cleveland at about the same time. Stearns arrived in Milwaukee a season before Falvey arrived in Minnesota. I think you could say Minnesota and Milwaukee are comparable markets, both outside the top ten in revenue. Correct me if I'm wrong.

So, anyone interested in knowing whether Falvey is the guy to build a pitching pipeline in Minnesota can compare the job Stearns has done in Milwaukee with the job Falvey has done here, over the past 6-7 years.

Welcome to TwinsDaily @Brady

4-10 in the playoffs for the Brew Crew since 2016. 3 years with the NL's top 5 ERA. That's my quick analysis. I know it's not dreaming on the mountaintop, but that is FOUR FREAKING PLAYOFF WINS!!!!  Falvey better giddy the ef up! 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

44 minutes ago, wabene said:

4-10 in the playoffs for the Brew Crew since 2016. 3 years with the NL's top 5 ERA. That's my quick analysis. I know it's not dreaming on the mountaintop, but that is FOUR FREAKING PLAYOFF WINS!!!!  Falvey better giddy the ef up! 

What is the intent with this post?

[wabene]

11 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

What is the intent with this post?

You said "So, anyone interested in knowing whether Falvey is the guy to build a pitching pipeline in Minnesota can compare the job Stearns has done in Milwaukee with the job Falvey has done here, over the past 6-7 years."

So I did exactly as you suggested and looked at the Brewer's recent track record. Whaddya think? Did I do a good job, lol? 

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

I am not so concerned whether the FO developed pitching vs acquired pitching,  You get it however you can.  Outside of Cavaco and Subboto for example, they seem to be better at drafting hitters than pitchers.  If they can then develop and turn those hitters into trade capital to acquire pitching, then that is one way to do it.

If they blew more draft picks on pitching while ignoring hitting talent, then it would take a ton of picks to hit on some.  We may be able to build a great pitching staff with that strategy, but then our hitting or defense would be lacking and we'd lose a bunch of 2-1 or 3-2 games due to the lack of hitting.  I actually like drafting a lot of hitting talent and then keeping the best and turning over others for pitching.  It's always going to be a blend in how they build a pitching staff.  There is no one way that solves all the problems.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

3 minutes ago, wabene said:

That's your answer, lol? How's about you answer my question

Sure, I'll play. I think you didn't do so great. 

For starters, I wish you would push back on the notion stated in this thread that "there are going to be down years... every team has them." After Stearns's first full season going 73-89, the worst season the Brewers have had in the past six years is 86-76. (not counting 2020). The Brewers have won 86 games five times in the Stearns era, and the Twins have won 86 games once during the Falvey era. (The Twins won 85 games in Falvey's first full season.)

I'm not asking you to call the "down years" statement a falsehood, I'm just asking you to push back. The Brewers haven't had any down seasons recently and their pitching staff has been a big reason.  

Second, you mention the Brewers 4-10 postseason record, but you leave out the fact that one of those years, they went to Game 7 of the NLCS against the Dodgers. One win away from the World Series. 

Third, their post-season record is not even 4-10. It's actually 7-10. 

[wabene]

4 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Sure, I'll play. I think you didn't do so great. 

For starters, I wish you would push back on the notion stated in this thread that "there are going to be down years... every team has them." After Stearns's first full season going 73-89, the worst season the Brewers have had in the past six years is 86-76. (not counting 2020). The Brewers have won 86 games five times in the Stearns era, and the Twins have won 86 games once during the Falvey era. (The Twins won 85 games in Falvey's first full season.)

I'm not asking you to call the "down years" statement a falsehood, I'm just asking you to push back. The Brewers haven't had any down seasons recently and their pitching staff has been a big reason.  

Second, you mention the Brewers 4-10 postseason record, but you leave out the fact that one of those years, they went to Game 7 of the NLCS against the Dodgers. One win away from the World Series. 

Third, their post-season record is not even 4-10. It's actually 7-10. 

 

In my quick "analysis" I looked at 2 simple stats, playoff record and team era. The Twins suffered in comparison in my opinion.

I wasn't going any deeper, but I agree with you that the Brewers have also had much better sustained success.

You are also right that the Brewers had a great run and almost took out the free spending Dodgers, quite a great season. 

On your last point maybe I'm missing something here. They went to the playoffs in 18, 19, 20 and 21 and it adds up to 4-10 as far as I can tell.

 

 

[chpettit19]

13 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Derek Falvey and David Stearns both came from Cleveland at about the same time. Stearns arrived in Milwaukee a season before Falvey arrived in Minnesota. I think you could say Minnesota and Milwaukee are comparable markets, both outside the top ten in revenue. Correct me if I'm wrong.

So, anyone interested in knowing whether Falvey is the guy to build a pitching pipeline in Minnesota can compare the job Stearns has done in Milwaukee with the job Falvey has done here, over the past 6-7 years.

Welcome to TwinsDaily @Brady

Stearns didn't go from Cleveland to Milwaukee. He went from Cleveland to Houston to Milwaukee. But they were in Cleveland together over a decade (Stearns left in 2011) ago if that's something anyone wants to put any weight into. Not sure what it has to do with anything, though.

[ashbury]

54 minutes ago, wabene said:

On your last point maybe I'm missing something here. They went to the playoffs in 18, 19, 20 and 21 and it adds up to 4-10 as far as I can tell.

 

 

That b-r.com page shows only the last playoff series in a given year.  You have to ask, how did they get to the NLCS in 2018, and then you go and find that they swept the Rockies 3-0.

[wabene]

1 minute ago, ashbury said:

That b-r.com page shows only the last playoff series in a given year.  You have to ask, how did they get to the NLCS in 2018, and then you go and find that they swept the Rockies 3-0.

Ok, obviously, thanks

[Squirrel]

Let’s stay on topic here … Building the Pitching Staff

[terrydactyls]

According to the Brewers website, this is their playoff record.

2017: Missed playoffs

2018: 6-4

2019: 0-1 

2020: 0-2 

2021: 1-3

2022: Missed playoffs 

7-10 overall 

 

 

 

 

[Squirrel]

Sigh … 

[IA Bean Counter]

Regarding the pitching staff,  yes we have spent capital to build our current staff.   Up to this point those trades have actually been overall beneficial to the club.  Ryan, Paddack came over in deals for players on expiring contracts.  Maeda has been more valuable than Graterol.  We do lose a couple years of control in that deal.  Beyond that the pitchers we have given up as prospects is Petty, Hajjar, and Povich and a couple other lottery arms.  Gray will be one of our best pitchers for 2 years and we can decide if we will extend or let him walk.   Petty could hurt in the long run.  Beyond that Hajjar and Povich are very replaceable arms.   Although we don't have any per say ace arms in the minors/majors we have some very good arms.  Ober and Winder both look like #3-5 pitchers, the issue with both is health and ability to handle a full season load.  SWR and Varland both look very durable with good stuff.  Likely #3-#4 type of players.   Raya and Priellip both look like good prospects with very high floors but lots of variability.   Then you have some lottery arms in Balazovic and Canterino who both appear to have talent but again can't stay healthy and now some questions on ability  with Balazovic.   Where we were 6 years ago,  with essentially no major league staff and not much in the pipeline,  I guess this is a huge improvement.  Most likely we won't have to spend a lot of capital on pitching staff, but I think this will become the MO of the organization.  Overload on bats and trade.   We are loaded on infield prospects,  we have too many.    We will also have another draft with lots of early picks.  Any full year draft since 2018, the Twins have done very very well.  The 19, 21, and 22 drafts the front office has likely been in the top 8 in performance in my opinion.  Now they have traded off some of that capital to get us where we are today,  but I have a feeling they will just continually improve the big league club and the minor league system.  We have lots of arms this year, some on their last year, it opens up the opportunity 1 or 2 may be traded off for someone else with more control or a prospect to replace or we just keep moving forward with what we have. 

We have let 3 players traded away as prospects that have a decent shot at performing well in the big leagues,  Encarnacion-Strand, Steer, and Petty.  The Twins I think will clearly win the Arraez for Lopez trade, but time will tell.    No offence, in the grand scheme of things we haven't given up a lot especially big league talent (only Arraez who appeared to not want to do an extension).   I think the Twins can easily continue to keep this up,  I just don't think they will need to.    

[Brandon]

So do we need to develop pitchers in our system or do we need to draft and develop them so they count?  We traded for and developed Alcala and Duran.  Also on the horizon is SWR.  We technically drafted and developed Thielbar, Jax and Moran.  Ober and Winder have the most MLB experience and will be atleast good middle to back end starters.  Varland did well in his first appearance in the show.  We have lots of other prospects as well Preliepp and Raya among others.  We also have 3 openings next season so let’s hope the development continues.  
again the 2020 season really messed things up for pitching development and last year was our first full normal development season and we have several pitchers knocking on the door.  And I will take prospects however we get them.  Even the ones we acquired for nothing. (C David Banuelos who will be in AAA for example).