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Building the Pitching Staff


Brady

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Saw this on Twitter yesterday regarding the origins of the current Twins pitchers, and I think it raises some interesting questions.

No Major League team can sustain this level of external acquisitions in building a pitching staff. Just last year they shipped off Hajjar, Povich, Encarnacion-Strand, Steer, and others to get Mahle and J. Lopez, and this year it took Arraez to bring in P. Lopez. Brusdar Graterol was exchanged for Maeda, Chase Petty for Gray, and so on. Of course there is a flip side to this, as the Twins have turned Eduardo Escobar into Duran and Ryan Pressly into Celestino and Alcala during years in which the big league club was not competing. Lately there have been calls to make a move for Corbin Burnes, which would certainly decimate the top of the Twins' prospect pool.

To me, the larger issue that we have put a net drain on the farm system to build the rotation, and to a lesser extent the bullpen. The Twins' struggles in developing high-end starters are well-known -- that's why it's so exciting when guys like Prielipp and Raya enter the fray. Ober, Varland, Woods-Richardson, Winder, and Balazovic all have varying levels of starter upside, but none of them will ever carry a rotation.

My question is, when (if ever) will the Twins be able to rely more on homegrown pitching talent? What has to change for that to happen? Scouting? Coaching? Better luck in prospect development? In my mind, a true ace or two is the last missing piece, but I'm wondering where it will come from, and at what cost.

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13 minutes ago, Brady said:

Saw this on Twitter yesterday regarding the origins of the current Twins pitchers, and I think it raises some interesting questions.

No Major League team can sustain this level of external acquisitions in building a pitching staff. Just last year they shipped off Hajjar, Povich, Encarnacion-Strand, Steer, and others to get Mahle and J. Lopez, and this year it took Arraez to bring in P. Lopez. Brusdar Graterol was exchanged for Maeda, Chase Petty for Gray, and so on. Of course there is a flip side to this, as the Twins have turned Eduardo Escobar into Duran and Ryan Pressly into Celestino and Alcala during years in which the big league club was not competing. Lately there have been calls to make a move for Corbin Burnes, which would certainly decimate the top of the Twins' prospect pool.

To me, the larger issue that we have put a net drain on the farm system to build the rotation, and to a lesser extent the bullpen. The Twins' struggles in developing high-end starters are well-known -- that's why it's so exciting when guys like Prielipp and Raya enter the fray. Ober, Varland, Woods-Richardson, Winder, and Balazovic all have varying levels of starter upside, but none of them will ever carry a rotation.

My question is, when (if ever) will the Twins be able to rely more on homegrown pitching talent? What has to change for that to happen? Scouting? Coaching? Better luck in prospect development? In my mind, a true ace or two is the last missing piece, but I'm wondering where it will come from, and at what cost.

Are you saying project pipeline is not all as advertised?

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If we’re talking about strictly drafted Twins players, then Ober and Balazovic are the closest ones to make an impact on the MLB team this year. Balazovic is off to a tough start this year with his off-field altercation. I will be thrilled if Ober pitches 150 combined innings in AAA and MLB this year. 

I’m frustrated as anyone else about the lack of drafted pitching talent making their way to MN, but credit is deserved developing prospects that were traded for like Duran. This has to be the year we see the pipeline produce more talent. Especially with Mahle, Maeda, and Gray on the last year of their contracts. 

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1 hour ago, Brady said:

My question is, when (if ever) will the Twins be able to rely more on homegrown pitching talent?

Any pipeline isn’t completely homegrown from draft classes, for any team, that would also be unsustainable and require one to never miss on a draftee which is impossible. Building a pipeline also happens by trading vets for prospects in down years or rebuild years. I agree that we can’t sustain this by trading prospects for major league ready pitching, but that list shows that we haven’t done that. Ryan was acquired by trading Nelson Cruz, when we were no longer in contention, Duran by trading Escobar when we were no longer in contention, and Alcala by trading Pressly. And in some of those cases we trade major leaguer for major leaguer as was the case for Pablo López PLUS acquired a nice addition to our position player pipeline. And, it could be argued that we traded for Maeda, a major league starter by using a major league ready reliever. Same with Paddock and Pagan … major league for major league. Now, you can argue that you didn’t like some of those trades, but the bottom line is we didn’t use just prospects to acquire those pitchers. That would truly be unsustainable, but that’s not what we did.

IMO, I consider Ryan, Duran, Jax, Moran, Alcala all from our pipeline. Even maybe Thielbar. Because you also fill out the pipeline with minor league signings that turn out.

And then there are several on the cusp or coming … Ober, Winder, Balazovic, maybe Sands will go the Jax route, etc.

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26 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

If we’re talking about strictly drafted Twins players, then Ober and Balazovic are the closest ones to make an impact on the MLB team this year. Balazovic is off to a tough start this year with his off-field altercation. I will be thrilled if Ober pitches 150 combined innings in AAA and MLB this year. 

I’m frustrated as anyone else about the lack of drafted pitching talent making their way to MN, but credit is deserved developing prospects that were traded for like Duran. This has to be the year we see the pipeline produce more talent. Especially with Mahle, Maeda, and Gray on the last year of their contracts. 

Somehow suggesting, as the OP and Tweet do, that getting a guy for 6+ years of control (Ryan) isn't sustainable, or isn't a good idea (which is the implication for some reason) is silliness.

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There's more context to it than simply saying "they traded for almost everyone and that isn't sustainable." Duran, Ryan, Thielbar, and Alcala all came over as prospects with all of their team control left. That's different than the guys who came over as major leaguers. But even those guys came over with multiple years of control left. 

They drafted Ober, Jax, Moran, Balazovich, Canterino, Headrick, Sands, Varland, and Winder. They acquired SWR and Henriquez with all their team control. That's 15 of the 23 arms on the 40-man who they either drafted or acquired as prospects. I'd argue that's not only sustainable, but pretty typical of every major league organization.

Front end pitching is hard to acquire in any fashion. But they definitely need Prielipp, Raya, pick #5 this year, someone to come up and be a controllable front line pitcher. But as far as acquiring major league pitchers goes, what they're doing is pretty sustainable.

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32 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

If we’re talking about strictly drafted Twins players, then Ober and Balazovic are the closest ones to make an impact on the MLB team this year. Balazovic is off to a tough start this year with his off-field altercation. I will be thrilled if Ober pitches 150 combined innings in AAA and MLB this year. 

I’m frustrated as anyone else about the lack of drafted pitching talent making their way to MN, but credit is deserved developing prospects that were traded for like Duran. This has to be the year we see the pipeline produce more talent. Especially with Mahle, Maeda, and Gray on the last year of their contracts. 

Varland over Jordy Blaze at this point.

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5 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

There's more context to it than simply saying "they traded for almost everyone and that isn't sustainable." Duran, Ryan, Thielbar, and Alcala all came over as prospects with all of their team control left. That's different than the guys who came over as major leaguers. But even those guys came over with multiple years of control left. 

They drafted Ober, Jax, Moran, Balazovich, Canterino, Headrick, Sands, Varland, and Winder. They acquired SWR and Henriquez with all their team control. That's 15 of the 23 arms on the 40-man who they either drafted or acquired as prospects. I'd argue that's not only sustainable, but pretty typical of every major league organization.

Front end pitching is hard to acquire in any fashion. But they definitely need Prielipp, Raya, pick #5 this year, someone to come up and be a controllable front line pitcher. But as far as acquiring major league pitchers goes, what they're doing is pretty sustainable.

You said this way better than me and you remembered way more pitchers than I did off the top of my head. I think when people think of ‘the pipeline’, I wonder if they think we should be producing aces all from our drafts? And, considering the depth you listed, I’d say our pipeline is pretty healthy … but let’s hope for no leaky or broken pipes, too!

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1 hour ago, Brady said:

Saw this on Twitter yesterday regarding the origins of the current Twins pitchers, and I think it raises some interesting questions.

No Major League team can sustain this level of external acquisitions in building a pitching staff. Just last year they shipped off Hajjar, Povich, Encarnacion-Strand, Steer, and others to get Mahle and J. Lopez, and this year it took Arraez to bring in P. Lopez. Brusdar Graterol was exchanged for Maeda, Chase Petty for Gray, and so on. Of course there is a flip side to this, as the Twins have turned Eduardo Escobar into Duran and Ryan Pressly into Celestino and Alcala during years in which the big league club was not competing. Lately there have been calls to make a move for Corbin Burnes, which would certainly decimate the top of the Twins' prospect pool.

To me, the larger issue that we have put a net drain on the farm system to build the rotation, and to a lesser extent the bullpen. The Twins' struggles in developing high-end starters are well-known -- that's why it's so exciting when guys like Prielipp and Raya enter the fray. Ober, Varland, Woods-Richardson, Winder, and Balazovic all have varying levels of starter upside, but none of them will ever carry a rotation.

My question is, when (if ever) will the Twins be able to rely more on homegrown pitching talent? What has to change for that to happen? Scouting? Coaching? Better luck in prospect development? In my mind, a true ace or two is the last missing piece, but I'm wondering where it will come from, and at what cost.

In the meantime…….Ober - Polanco - Walner for Burns at the Trade Deadline. Starting pitcher - above average starting 2nd baseman - Big arm outfielder & Power hitter with upside (maybe Martin instead of Polanco)

We resign him for 3 more years at $28M & extend López 2 additional years at $19M.

$$$ are available in ‘24 & forward based on Kepler - Gallo - Gray - Polanco - Mahle all being gone in ‘24. ($10M - $11M - $13M - $9M - $11M)

Starting rotation in ‘24:

Burns - Ryan - López - Varland - Paddack

Top 3 are playoff arms & if needed, we could piggyback Varland & Paddack for 3-4 innings each in a play-off series.

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2 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

You said this way better than me and you remembered way more pitchers than I did off the top of my head. I think when people think of ‘the pipeline’, I wonder if they think we should be producing aces all from our drafts? And, considering the depth you listed, I’d say our pipeline is pretty healthy … but let’s hope for no leaky or broken pipes, too!

I didn't remember all those pitchers, I had to pull up the 40-man to get them all. I think they've shown a solid ability to develop MLB talent. Both hitters and pitchers. What's going to make the difference is stars. Can they get a position player to stay healthy and become a star? Can they develop a frontline starter or 2? That'll be the difference between perennial division contender and perennial WS contender.

MLB Network just finished their "Top 100" series. And the last half dozen or so WS Champs have all had at least 5 Top 100 players. The Twins have 2 now. They need to find 3+ more. There's hope for that, but it's their big test. Develop a couple cheap stars and pay for 1 more when they let a number of their upcoming FAs walk. 

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Joe Ryan, Jhoan Duran, and Jorge Alcala are all deadline acquisitions during down seasons.  I applaud the pragmatism of the acquisitions but they are windfalls, not part of a sustainable pipeline.  Suppose the Twins had been winners in 2021 and 2018 - how do you acquire these three arms when you need Nelson Cruz and Ryan Pressly and Eduardo Escobar for your own pennant drives?

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20 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

What's going to make the difference is stars. Can they get a position player to stay healthy and become a star? Can they develop a frontline starter or 2? That'll be the difference between perennial division contender and perennial WS contender.

I agree with the point being made by many that they have done a really nice job of flipping our own MLB guys for Major League-level talent (Ryan, Maeda, Paddack, even Pagan), especially in situations where the Twins likely weren't going to get much future value out of the pieces being traded away.

I think the point I'm trying to make is that (1) we do not have a true SP1/high-end SP2 in the system with an ETA within the next 2-3 years; and (2) trading away significant chunks of our system's Top 30 (at multiple positions) for guys that would likely be SP3-5 on a WS contender will make it difficult to feasibly compete at a high level.

I don't think that organizational shift happens all at once, or that we need to consistently roll out elite SP prospects every year, but I would hope to see moves in that direction. I guess I'm taking more of a frustrated fan view than a rational GM stance, but it would be nice to see the Twins have some increased emphasis/success in end-to-end development of high-end pitchers (as I'm sure every organization would)

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22 minutes ago, Brady said:

I agree with the point being made by many that they have done a really nice job of flipping our own MLB guys for Major League-level talent (Ryan, Maeda, Paddack, even Pagan), especially in situations where the Twins likely weren't going to get much future value out of the pieces being traded away.

I think the point I'm trying to make is that (1) we do not have a true SP1/high-end SP2 in the system with an ETA within the next 2-3 years; and (2) trading away significant chunks of our system's Top 30 (at multiple positions) for guys that would likely be SP3-5 on a WS contender will make it difficult to feasibly compete at a high level.

I don't think that organizational shift happens all at once, or that we need to consistently roll out elite SP prospects every year, but I would hope to see moves in that direction. I guess I'm taking more of a frustrated fan view than a rational GM stance, but it would be nice to see the Twins have some increased emphasis/success in end-to-end development of high-end pitchers (as I'm sure every organization would)

But how many teams do have a "true SP1/high-end SP2 in the system with an ETA within 2-3 years?" And, really, you need 3 or 4 of those guys because the vast majority of them don't actually become those types of arms. Getting one of those guys should definitely be the goal, but you're talking about a very limited number of guys. Most top 100 pitching prospects aren't even the guy you're describing. Fangraphs just released their top prospect list. They have 2 pitchers with 60 FV grades, and 9 with 55 FV grades. 1 of those guys is Kodai Senga who's 30 years old. So actual "true SP1/high-end SP2" prospects in the entire minor league baseball world is 10 guys. And at least half of those guys won't turn into that type of pitcher. So there's probably 5 in all of minor league baseball. The Twins should certainly be working to develop those guys. But we need to have realistic expectations as well. Maybe Prielipp is that guy by the end of this year. Maybe they snag another one with pick 5. Maybe Raya becomes one. 

I definitely get the frustrated fan view. I want another Johan. I want a guy who I will find a way to be in front of a TV every 5th day to watch pitch. And it absolutely should be the goal. And it is. The Twins are trying to develop that guy. It's just really, really, really hard. The organizational shift has happened. They've adjusted the type of guys they seek. They've changed how they develop. They're adding velocity to guys. They're seeking strikeouts over soft contact. It's just really hard to hit on front end pitching. It's why it's so valuable.

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1 hour ago, ashbury said:

Joe Ryan, Jhoan Duran, and Jorge Alcala are all deadline acquisitions during down seasons.  I applaud the pragmatism of the acquisitions but they are windfalls, not part of a sustainable pipeline.  Suppose the Twins had been winners in 2021 and 2018 - how do you acquire these three arms when you need Nelson Cruz and Ryan Pressly and Eduardo Escobar for your own pennant drives?

I think these pitchers are absolutely part of the pipeline. There are times teams need to and will trade vets even if they are winning. To expect a pipeline to consist only of one’s own draftees I think is incredibly limiting. You fill the pipeline any way you can. Already people are talking about trading Polanco because we have prospects waiting in the wings. Getting back prospects for him would be good. It’s not just about trading off vets in a down year it’s also about trading them for more prospect talent when you need the space for someone else. And maybe Ryan is a windfall acquisition, I could see your argument there, but both Alcala and Duran spent significant time being developed within our own system. They are definitely OUR pipeline. If a prospect isn’t ML ready and still needs development that is pipeline work. 

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5 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

To expect a pipeline to consist only of draftees I think is incredibly limiting.

I didn't say that.  The others on the roster who came here via trade are a different story entirely from the 3 whom I highlighted.  And some pitchers were acquired by other means than draft or trade.

No team, except maybe in a very high-end revenue market, can escape an occasional losing season even if "sustainable success" is the mantra and is achieved.  As I said, I applaud the pragmatism of making chicken salad from chicken feathers.  It's just not part of any pipeline for me - nothing to make a 5-year or 10-year plan about.

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Just now, ashbury said:

I didn't say that.  The others on the roster who came here via trade are a different story entirely from the 3 I highlighted.

No team, except maybe in a very high-end revenue market, can escape an occasional losing season even if "sustainable success" is the mantra and is achieved.  As I said, I applaud the pragmatism of making chicken salad from chicken feathers.  It's just not part of any pipeline for me - nothing to make a 5-year or 10-year plan about.

Then we disagree. Because no matter how we acquire prospects, if they aren’t major league ready, and still require development, they go into our pipeline. 

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This topic feels like it has been discussed previously. I don't see a net drain of the farm system. Chase Petty looked like a healthy dude to get behind and I liked how Cade Povich looked as well. None of the other guys traded caused any anguish or doubt for me. Trades are a big part of building a baseball roster, especially if a team does not sign pitchers to large multi-year contracts.

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39 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

I think these pitchers are absolutely part of the pipeline. There are times teams need to and will trade vets even if they are winning. To expect a pipeline to consist only of one’s own draftees I think is incredibly limiting. You fill the pipeline any way you can. Already people are talking about trading Polanco because we have prospects waiting in the wings. Getting back prospects for him would be good. It’s not just about trading off vets in a down year it’s also about trading them for more prospect talent when you need the space for someone else. And maybe Ryan is a windfall acquisition, I could see your argument there, but both Alcala and Duran spent significant time being developed within our own system. They are definitely OUR pipeline. If a prospect isn’t ML ready and still needs development that is pipeline work. 

The theory that they don't count because they were traded for in a year where they were not contending assumes it's realistic we should contend every year.  We all know that is not remotely realistic because with the exception of a couple of the highest revenue teams, all teams have a significant number of years where they are not contenders.  What we should hope for is what you have pointed out.  Successful teams add talent by trading current short-term talent for future longer-term talent.  If you look at Tampa, Oakland, and Cleveland their production when measured by WAR is driven almost as much by players acquired as prospects as drafted.  Those three teams are by far the most successful teams in the bottom half of revenue which again proves your point.

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Baseball skills take a long time to develop and for that reason it's extremely difficult for any scouting department to accurately evaluate players for the draft and for international signings. It's no surprise that very few teams wind up with a high percentage of in-house draft picks on their rosters. That said, it all comes back to what has been said many times--scouting and player development are the keys to success. Do better than average in those areas and you'll have a better than average major league team and you'll do it cost effectively.

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1 hour ago, ashbury said:

Joe Ryan, Jhoan Duran, and Jorge Alcala are all deadline acquisitions during down seasons.  I applaud the pragmatism of the acquisitions but they are windfalls, not part of a sustainable pipeline.  Suppose the Twins had been winners in 2021 and 2018 - how do you acquire these three arms when you need Nelson Cruz and Ryan Pressly and Eduardo Escobar for your own pennant drives?

The example I'll always remember of teams trading away major league players for prospects while in their own pennant drive was the 2016 Astros. They were in second place in the West with a 56-49 record on August first. They traded Josh Fields from their pen to the Dodgers who were also in 2nd in their respective Western division at the time, and were 59-46. The Astros got 19 year old Yordan Alvarez in return.

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44 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

The theory that they don't count because they were traded for in a year where they were not contending assumes it's realistic we should contend every year.

No, it's not, and I said so above.  I just don't like to give credit where it's not due.  "Oh goody, another losing year!  Look at that prospect pipeline grow!"

Deadline trades that don't wave the white flag are A-OK in my book, and do count.  The example just above of discarding an underperforming bullpen arm, which the Dodgers seemed to regard (correctly as it turns out) as a rebound candidate, is a great example.

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1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

But how many teams do have a "true SP1/high-end SP2 in the system with an ETA within 2-3 years?" And, really, you need 3 or 4 of those guys because the vast majority of them don't actually become those types of arms. Getting one of those guys should definitely be the goal, but you're talking about a very limited number of guys. Most top 100 pitching prospects aren't even the guy you're describing. Fangraphs just released their top prospect list. They have 2 pitchers with 60 FV grades, and 9 with 55 FV grades. 1 of those guys is Kodai Senga who's 30 years old. So actual "true SP1/high-end SP2" prospects in the entire minor league baseball world is 10 guys. And at least half of those guys won't turn into that type of pitcher. So there's probably 5 in all of minor league baseball. The Twins should certainly be working to develop those guys. But we need to have realistic expectations as well. Maybe Prielipp is that guy by the end of this year. Maybe they snag another one with pick 5. Maybe Raya becomes one. 

I definitely get the frustrated fan view. I want another Johan. I want a guy who I will find a way to be in front of a TV every 5th day to watch pitch. And it absolutely should be the goal. And it is. The Twins are trying to develop that guy. It's just really, really, really hard. The organizational shift has happened. They've adjusted the type of guys they seek. They've changed how they develop. They're adding velocity to guys. They're seeking strikeouts over soft contact. It's just really hard to hit on front end pitching. It's why it's so valuable.

Fair enough. I think it's just tough to accept that, for smaller-market teams like the Twins, it largely comes down to luck in prospect development to build out a rotation that can really compete with the Astros, Dodgers, Yankees, Braves, etc. year after year. I agree that they're moving in the right direction when it comes to targeted players. Taking a chance on Prielipp (potentially elite stuff, but with some injury risk) speaks to that. Maybe I'm just impatient, but I'm hopeful for the days when the Twins are no longer constantly chasing pitching at the expense of the farm system without significant postseason success to show for it. But that last point is a whole separate can of worms 😅

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2 hours ago, ashbury said:

Joe Ryan, Jhoan Duran, and Jorge Alcala are all deadline acquisitions during down seasons.  I applaud the pragmatism of the acquisitions but they are windfalls, not part of a sustainable pipeline.  Suppose the Twins had been winners in 2021 and 2018 - how do you acquire these three arms when you need Nelson Cruz and Ryan Pressly and Eduardo Escobar for your own pennant drives?

That's how every team runs. Should they have sat around and done nothing? Of course not. If they had been winners, we'd be looking at 6 years of playoffs, that sounds sustained to me....

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6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Should they have sat around and done nothing?

I already said I applauded those 3 trades.  Why do these straw men keep getting set up?  I'm talking about what counts as being in a pipeline, not what a FO should do when faced with a losing proposition for the given season.

If we'd won in those years then we wouldn't have Duran and Ryan on the roster, seriously impacting assumptions about the (counterfactual) success continuing in 2022, 2023, ...  That's having it both ways.

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7 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I already said I applauded those 3 trades.  Why do these straw men keep getting set up?  I'm talking about what counts as being in a pipeline, not what a FO should do when faced with a losing proposition for the given season.

If we'd won in those years then we wouldn't have Duran and Ryan on the roster, seriously impacting assumptions about the (counterfactual) success continuing in 2022, 2023, ...  That's having it both ways.

Or, they'd have traded for more guys, but they'd have been in the playoffs nearly every year..... Which I thought was sustainable success. 

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36 minutes ago, ashbury said:

No, it's not, and I said so above.  I just don't like to give credit where it's not due.  "Oh goody, another losing year!  Look at that prospect pipeline grow!"

Deadline trades that don't wave the white flag are A-OK in my book, and do count.  The example just above of discarding an underperforming bullpen arm, which the Dodgers seemed to regard (correctly as it turns out) as a rebound candidate, is a great example.

We simply disagree.  There are going to be down years.  History is very clear that every team has them, especially teams outside the top 10 in revenue.  Given the choice of a couple more wins in a down season or acquiring Joe Ryan / Jhoan Duran, etc for several years is a very easy choice for me.  

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2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

We simply disagree.  ... Given the choice of a couple more wins in a down season or acquiring Joe Ryan / Jhoan Duran, etc for several years is a very easy choice for me.  

Clearly given your last sentence you didn't even read what I wrote.  Because I make that same choice.

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Derek Falvey and David Stearns both came from Cleveland at about the same time. Stearns arrived in Milwaukee a season before Falvey arrived in Minnesota. I think you could say Minnesota and Milwaukee are comparable markets, both outside the top ten in revenue. Correct me if I'm wrong.

So, anyone interested in knowing whether Falvey is the guy to build a pitching pipeline in Minnesota can compare the job Stearns has done in Milwaukee with the job Falvey has done here, over the past 6-7 years.

Welcome to TwinsDaily @Brady

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Who cares if we deplete the pipeline each year searching for pitching if we can continue to sign guys like Gallo, Taylor, Solano and Farmer?

Even though that comment was written in sarcasm font, there is some truth to it - trading position player prospects for immediate or future pitching and signing/acquiring cheaper (relative to veteran pitchers) major league track record position players very much seems like an important plank of this FO’s current strategy.

Lots of good points on this thread - with the reality, like most things, somewhere in the middle: ideally, we’d like to have a more consistent/dependable pipeline of pitching talent with an occasional clear top end starter come out of the system, while continuing to augment the staff as needed with trades. We might be a little long on one side of that ideal at the moment, but might have a chance to balance it out over the next several years. 

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