One Twins Power Prospect Still Waiting to Breakout

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

17 HR by a 23-year old at High-A ball, followed by 5 more in short duty at AA?  Seems like nothing to sneeze at.  I decided to take a look back, 10 years ago, and see what happened afterward to anyone with similar age and numbers at high-A in 2012.

At first I was going to look at the Twins own farm system, but High-A back then was in Ft Myers, and the Florida State League is widely considered a pitcher's league.  Certainly no one on that 2012 squad approached those figures.  So I opted for a different franchise and picked the Giants at random.  Their High-A team in 2012 was in San Jose in the higher-offense California League.

On that team was Adam Duvall, who at age 23 hit 30 dingers.  He used 598 PA in which to accomplish that, while our guy Aaron had his HR in only 348 and 99 at A+ and AA respectively.  Duvall's BA was .258 while Sabato's was .226/.179, but adding in walks Sabato's OBP was actually a tad higher of the two.  Not a perfect comp but close enough to suit me.

Lots of minor leaguers fail, regardless of their pedigree or resume up to a given point.  So I'm not going to continue looking for additional comps *cough* Kennys Vargas 2013 *cough*.  If Sabato turns out like Duvall, for a few seasons, and it looks like he does have a chance, then our late first rounder will have worked out OK.

10 years ago is a completely different game. People didn't swing for the fences, and pitchers threw like 93......

[Monkeypaws]

5 hours ago, LonelyseatinMOA said:

Trout was 25th, so there are some diamonds too

 

And Judge was even later. Not saying it can't happen, but more often than not it doesn't.

[DJL44]

4 hours ago, adorduan said:

Sabato and Cavaco were terrible 1st round picks. At least they look like they got last years pick right...

Draft picks go bust all the time. The Twins got Wallner, Steer, Canterino, Headrick, Julien and Varland out of the 2019 draft which more than makes up for Cavaco. 2020 was a small draft but Raya makes up for missing on Sabato. I think they deserve some slack drafting based on a month's worth of data in 2020.

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, bird said:

In a very mild defense of the pick, however, my sense is the 2020 draft was neither strong nor deep.

Almost impossible for a 5 round draft to be deep.

[ashbury]

53 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

10 years ago is a completely different game. People didn't swing for the fences, and pitchers threw like 93......

So then to achieve roughly comparable numbers at the same age and league level, he must be more talented and/or accomplished than Duvall was.  Cool beans. 

[Rosterman]

Losing that 2020 season was a pain. The Twins, no doubt, will wait until the last minute to add him to the 40-man. Or, they might just keep him at AA all year, especially if he puts up stats maybe slightly better than he did the past year, postponing a hard decision until the next season.

They have a solid $2+m investment in the guy, so they don't want to see him walk in a Rule 5 claim. But that said, he could be leapfrogged by many others. Also, the Twins have no real first abseman in their system, unless they switch someone like, say, Julien to the position. Of course, a super season from someone like Kiriloff, or if Miranda shows that he is a longtermer for the Twins, will make Sabato expendable. 

In that case, a solid season at AA could make him a solid tradechip to a rebuilding team.

[DJL44]

30 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

They have a solid $2+m investment in the guy, so they don't want to see him walk in a Rule 5 claim.

At this point I think they'd be happy to take the $100,000 for the Rule 5 claim.

[jimbo92107]

I didn't understand the pick then, and I still don't now. Were the Twins trying to draft a slow DH that swings hard? Seems like they could find guys like that in later rounds. Or in beer leagues. Good luck to Sabato, I don't expect to ever see him in the bigs. Surprise me, dude. 

[James]

7 hours ago, LonelyseatinMOA said:

Trout was 25th, so there are some diamonds too

 

 

2 hours ago, Monkeypaws said:

And Judge was even later. Not saying it can't happen, but more often than not it doesn't.

And Mike Piazza was drafter at #1390 in the 62nd round.  The draft if always a crapshoot. There are plenty of examples of #1 overall picks that don't work and players from late rounds having great careers. But generally, 27th overall is less likely to be a superstar.   

 

I don't think I was upset with the Sabato pick when it happened.  He had good college numbers.  I was maybe a little concerned that he was a 1B, but I thought the bat and power might work.  I'm having a hard time seeing that these day, but sometimes guys take a bit of time to develop.  He still might have a decent MLB career, but it may not be with the Twins unless he starts that turnaround this year. 

 

[twins_89]

At the time they were drafted I loved the Larnach and Lee selections and hated the Cavaco and Sabato picks. The biggest difference was that Larnach/Lee were guys who had dropped a little past their rannking, while Cavaco/Sabato were players that the Twins reached for. My main takaway is that Falvey is not smarter than the overall consensus on top draft prospects. With that said, the current front office has done a pretty good job with their 2nd-10th round picks.

[John Bonnes]

One thing that might make this year a little less critical, is that he’s pretty unlikely to be taken in a rule five draft. A bat-only guy is rarely taken in the rule five. There’s no place to stash them on the 26-man roster.

[IndianaTwin]

If Mr. Sabato does well, we can certainly say, "Domo Arigato," thank you very much. 

 

[ashbury]

3 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

If Mr. Sabato does well, we can certainly say, "Domo Arigato," thank you very much.

Does being on Cedar Rapids and Wichita amount to playing in the Styx?

[awmonahan]

I look at his swing, in the minors, and don't understand where we are supposed to find a valuable MLB player. The bat seems slow. Maybe it has power, but slow and power is negligible. And he doesn't have anything else to offer on the bases or on the field. There was a lot going on, and I didn't judge the pick then, but I don't understand how he was projected to be worth a 1 or valuable in MLB now. 

[IndianaTwin]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

Does being on Cedar Rapids and Wichita amount to playing in the Styx?

Or at the least, we hope he'll be swinging a big Styx. 

[High heat]

Hinge sight is always 20/20 on these guys.  
 

If you draft 1 or 2 tool plays and one or both of those tools isn’t elite you don’t have a guy who ever makes it. 
 

He put up elite college # with the bat and he is a big strong guy it just hasn’t translated. 
 

hoping something clicks this season and he becomes valued in 2023.  

[ashbury]

44 minutes ago, High heat said:

Hinge sight is always 20/20 on these guys.  
 

If you draft 1 or 2 tool plays and one or both of those tools isn’t elite you don’t have a guy who ever makes it. 
 

He put up elite college # with the bat and he is a big strong guy it just hasn’t translated. 
 

hoping something clicks this season and he becomes valued in 2023.  

Concur.  OTOH multi-tool players typically need for all their tools to click, unless you have the fabled 5-tool player like Correa or Buxton who go high in the draft and aren't available anyway where Sabato was chosen.  Nick Gordon is the poster child for having no one tool being bad when drafted but no one tool that stood out, and he almost got buried in the minors before finally putting it all together (arguably it was his high draft slot in the first place that caused him to get the long leash, otherwise he might be bouncing around).  There's more than one way to reach the majors, and also more than one way to not quite make it.  If the talent evaluator really believes in one tool that a player has, it can be a reasonable move to draft that player and hope that one or two additional tools emerge as at least adequate.  The "hit" tool, more so than "power" or any other single tool, would be the one I'd bank on, so in that light Sabato was kind of a reach.

[Otaknam]

The Sabato pick was a head scratcher from the beginning, considering he is a one tool guy. No FO gets all picks right but this guy, with no defensive skills, was a mistake ready to happen, especially with the need to power arms. They must have hoped for a right handed David Ortiz.

[saviking]

On 2/24/2023 at 8:38 AM, puckstopper1 said:

Sabato is Sano 2.0 (2020-2022 version) at best.  Unfortunately the path he is on will have leave him as a first round bust.

If I had to guess I would guess you are probably right. I see a lot of people rooting for him but I root for every Twins player. I don't want him to fail but he's way down the list of players I'm counting on. Actually he's not even on the list right now to be honest.

[DocBauer]

Just to be clear, the scouting department makes these choices, not the FO. At least not directly. They undoubtedly have some input, at least on top choices, but they are more focused on the ML roster and have a scouting department and assistant GM in charge of these things for a reason. That being said, I think said department has generally done a pretty good job, overall, in what they do and their various drafts.

What I remember most about the 2020 draft...obviously greatly affected by covid and the shutdown of baseball everywhere except for MLB...was that it wasn't considered a deep draft, especially with so much limited information to make decisions. But while there were really ZERO can't miss, top stuff arms available, it was still considered pretty deep in viable college arms with at least some potential. Even at 27, there were some arms available that might eventually play out, and I thought the Twins would go that route. They didn't. All things considered, the 2020 draft was a much greater crapshoot than normal.

At pick 27, the Twins had a choice of a college arm or prospect with potential, and standard, obvious questions, or going for a bat that just might be dynamic. I wasn't crazy about the pick, but I didn't hate it. Sabato played for a major school in a big time league and produced some great numbers. Remember, he was only a 21yo sophomore when drafted. He had a HUGE 2019 season for the Tar Heels, and was on pace for an equally great 2022 before college baseball was shut down. 

I won't use revisionist thinking about the pick today, without looking back at who they thought they were drafting, 1B/DH or not, he was one of the biggest and badest bats available at the time. And there is room for that kind of bat on a roster.

Despite a poor BA, he's still had an OB% much higher, indicating he has some idea of the zone. And he's still shown great power. When you have that much power, and a knowledge of the zone, pitchers can't just throw "around you". Challenging you too much results in power shots. But at some point, you also have to actually show you can HIT a little bit. And Sabato hasn't shown he can do that, at this point. And that's really disappointing. He hit .344 as a Freshman, and .292 in his abbreviated Sophomore season, down some to be sure, but with an even higher OB% and higher OPS.

He's still only 23yo with power and some patience. When the much debated Joey Gallo is ON, he's a .200-.220-ish hitter...which stinks...but maintains a .350-ish OB% and HUGE power which makes him dangerous, productive, and valuable, especially when you factor in quality defense. But a prospect like Sabato, he'd have to be GG caliber defensively with just as much OB and power, or more, to be considered a legitimate ML player/prospect.

I think Johnson, and the scouting department really thought they drafted a certain player that just isn't the performer they thought he might become. And I wouldn't be surprised if 2020 turns out to be one of the strangest and worst drafts ever, overall. IMO, Sabato has 2023 at AA to prove he can actually HIT, while still being patient and powerful. Otherwise, he's an easy non 40 man candidate. He's been a huge, and I would say unexpected, disappointment pick thus far.

Though battling some injuries in his young career, the talented Soularie has done little. Rosario has shown a little promise.

Thank goodness we picked up Raya in the 4th round.