One Twins Power Prospect Still Waiting to Breakout

[Cody Christie]

Every organization seeks a powerful bat to plug into the middle of its lineup. The Twins hoped one former first-round pick would follow this path, but the team is still waiting for him to break out.

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

The 2020 season was unlike any other in baseball history on and off the field. Major League Baseball found a way to play a shortened season during a pandemic, but different facets of the game had to be altered. Front offices changed their scouting and development processes because limited high school and college games were played nationwide. Entering the 2020 MLB Draft, the Twins had a late first-round pick, which added even more uncertainty to their selection. 

Minnesota took Aaron Sabato with the 27th overall pick in the 2020 MLB Draft, and he signed for $2.75 million. The slugging first baseman had spent two collegiate seasons pounding the ball for the University of North Carolina, a strong college team. In 83 games, he hit .332/.459/.698 (1.158) with 31 doubles and 25 home runs. Some evaluators questioned the pick because he was projected to provide little defensive value, which means his bat must produce at a high level. The Twins were betting on his bat, but he hasn’t put it all together in his professional career. 

Sabato spent his first professional season between Low- and High-A. In 107 games, he hit .202/.373/.410 (.783) with 18 doubles and 19 home runs. Most of his offensive damage came following his promotion to Cedar Rapids, where he posted a 1.015 OPS in the season’s final 22 games. Even with college experience, he faced older pitchers in over 69% of his plate appearances. He ended the year on a strong note, so there was some hope for even better numbers in 2022. 

The Twins had Sabato return to Cedar Rapids to start the 2022 season. In 80 games, he hit .226/.351/.448 (.799) with 13 doubles and 17 home runs. Sabato drew 49 walks to help his OBP, but he struck out 111 times in 288 at-bats. He posted a 1.084 OPS in July, so Minnesota promoted him to Double-A. In Wichita, he was over a year younger than the average age of the competition for the first time. His OPS dropped to .688 with nine extra-base hits across 23 games. There were brief signs of his powerful swing, but he lacked the consistency to rank among the team’s top prospects. 

Sabato is going to feel pressure for multiple reasons during the 2023 campaign. College players taken in the 2020 Draft must be added to their club’s 40-man roster next winter to be exempt from the Rule 5 Draft. Unless Sabato has a monster 2023 season, the Twins are unlikely to add him to the 40-man roster prior to the Rule 5 Draft. He turns 24 years old at the beginning of June, and the Twins have other slugging prospects ahead of him on the organization’s depth chart. 

Minnesota will likely send Sabato back to Double-A to start the 2023 season. He has yet to succeed at that level, and that follows a similar development path the team has used with him in his first two professional seasons. The current front office thought highly enough of Sabato to take him in the first round, so they will give him every opportunity to succeed. However, Sabato needs a solid start to the 2023 campaign to insert himself back into the organization’s long-term plans. 

Can Sabato put it all together in 2023? How do you view his ceiling after two professional seasons? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

View full article

[Nashvilletwin]

Yep, probably a pretty much a make or break season for this young man at this point.

Go get ‘em Aaron, we are pulling for you. You can do it!

[tony&rodney]

Sabato was a strange choice for a #1 draft pick. We wish him well.

[Dman]

I don't know what his specific swing issues are but he has a good eye at the plate.  Generally patient hitters get good pitches to hit he just seems to have trouble barreling up balls and or missing them entirely and striking out.

I have been negative on the pick since they took him as I didn't like the pick of a bat only player in the 1st round.  I am tired of being negative about Sabato and hoping he can find a way to better contact secondary pitches and not just need fastballs to be successful.  There are some large holes in his swing but if he can narrow those he has the other skills to be a good hitter. Hoping for a breakout year and he will be in a hitters league so no better time to get things moving in the right direction.

[puckstopper1]

Sabato is Sano 2.0 (2020-2022 version) at best.  Unfortunately the path he is on will have leave him as a first round bust.

[mikelink45]

I just haven't believed in him since he was drafted. It's not his fault the front office put him in a bad position by taking them first. It increased the pressure and the expectations. Still not sure why, but this front office does like sluggers.

[Monkeypaws]

Yeah he was a 1st round pick, but 27th overall.

Busts aplenty at that point in the draft for all teams.

 

[mac098]

I have a feeling he is our next Brent Rooker. Mashed at the college level for a school that typically has a solid baseball team year in and year out. But he just can't seem to put it together at the professional level. Now I hope I'm wrong and he can turn it around because he also reminds of Sano in that when he makes contact, EVERYONE turns their heads because it just sounds that good coming off the bat. If he start to put it together, I think we'll have a good platoon at 1B with Sabato and Kirilloff. 

[Blyleven2011]

Sabato is one of the biggest bust so far in his career , if anyone should go to driveline baseball it should be Sabato and the twins should pay for it ...

Known for his bat and no defense  , his bat has been stagnant since he started pro ball , can't believe we have to put him on the 40 man roster after this year or expose him to the rule 5 draft ...

Only three seasons to evaluate his talents after the 2023 season ...

Man does time fly ...

[miracleb]

I think this will sort itself out.  He either starts putting it together and the Twins put him on the 40-man.....or.....he continues to struggle and no other team will grab him in the Rule-5 draft.  He would REALLY need to put it all together to force the Twins to put him on the 40-man roster.  Even after a "solid" season....no other team is going to take him and put him on their bench without a solid defensive position established.  Don't fret on this one!
:)

[Doctor Gast]

44 minutes ago, Dman said:

I don't know what his specific swing issues are but he has a good eye at the plate.  Generally patient hitters get good pitches to hit he just seems to have trouble barreling up balls and or missing them entirely and striking out.

I have been negative on the pick since they took him as I didn't like the pick of a bat only player in the 1st round.  I am tired of being negative about Sabato and hoping he can find a way to better contact secondary pitches and not just need fastballs to be successful.  There are some large holes in his swing but if he can narrow those he has the other skills to be a good hitter. Hoping for a breakout year and he will be in a hitters league so no better time to get things moving in the right direction.

I'm in the same camp. Never like using our #1 pick on him, Twins priority was screwed up. Hope he figures it out unlike Sano & recoup something for him.

[LonelyseatinMOA]

23 minutes ago, Monkeypaws said:

Yeah he was a 1st round pick, but 27th overall.

Busts aplenty at that point in the draft for all teams.

 

Trout was 25th, so there are some diamonds too

 

[MN_ExPat]

Baseball is hard.  It's supposed to be hard.  If it was easy, everyone would be doing it. 

That's why I absolutely despise the term "Bust" in reference to these kids.  By sheer chance and weight of numbers, the vast majority will never make it to a 2nd or 3rd professional season.  Like others, I'm tired of being sour on his chances to succeed in professional ball.

Do I believe that he will turn things around...🤷‍♂️?  The odds do not look to be in his favor, but I find no reason to bash him as a proxy reason to find perceived fault with the FO.  Was it a good draft choice?  It definitely wouldn't have been my 1st choice, and in retrospect, other picks look better, but my thought at the end of the day is... so what.  It likely isn't going to pan out for us as fans, but I'm not going to quite watching the Twins because of it.

So I say... Godspeed young man.  Live your dream for as long as the Twins (or other teams) and Good Lord allow you to do so.

[Blyleven2011]

2 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'm in the same camp. Never like using our #1 pick on him. Hope he figures it out unlike Sano & recoup something for him.

I agree totally that it wasn't a good pick in 2020 and it would be nice if he can salvage his career and recoup something for him ...

So far he hasn't been mentioned in any trades we have made so it looks like he is more valuable to twins organization  ...

Let's hope he puts a solid season together  this year ...

[DJL44]

If you look at his college numbers you wouldn't predict 140 strikeouts a season but that's what he's done in the minors.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I just haven't believed in him since he was drafted. It's not his fault the front office put him in a bad position by taking them first. It increased the pressure and the expectations. Still not sure why, but this front office does like sluggers.

Bomba got in their heads and it shows no sign of moving out.

[gman]

So far hasn't shown any signs he should be at the level he has been promoted too. I expect this is the year he doesn't finish. Too bad for his dreams.

[GKuehl]

Though both are busts, the Cavaco and Sabato picks are polar opposites. We criticize the FO for drafting Cavaco as a toolsy prep infielder with massive upside if he ever put it all together, and we also criticize the FO for drafting Sabato as a high-floor, low-ceiling prospect who was likely to make it to the majors as a DH.

Are we just blinded by hindsight? Maybe -- if Sabato was hitting like we all expected he would after we drafted him, the pick would make a lot of sense, especially considering how much this year's version of the team could use a righty power bat. 

[adorduan]

Sabato and Cavaco were terrible 1st round picks. At least they look like they got last years pick right...

[Fred]

Ya pays your money, and ya takes your chances. You won't always win the kewpie doll.

[chpettit19]

I didn't love the pick because of his lack of any tools outside his hit and power, but his hit and power had the chance to be elite. I can see the thought process in grabbing him at the end of the first and hoping he turns into a Nelson Cruz type. To this point it's really hard to see him ever making the majors. He absolutely destroyed college baseball. He had some swing and miss to his game then, but I don't think any of us would've predicted the insane K rates we saw from him in the low minors. It wasn't a great pick, but I think we're being a literal harsh due to some 20/20 hindsight. This is the risk you take when you go after a bat only player. You have the upside of Nelson Cruz, but the downside of them never succeeding in the high minors even. I still hope something clicks for him, but it's not looking likely at this point.

[bird]

Like others, I didn't like the pick, simply because, aesthetically, big lumbering base-clogging whiffers to me are truly unpleasant to watch except for the 30 AB's where the ball goes a mile.

In a very mild defense of the pick, however, my sense is the 2020 draft was neither strong nor deep. If two years from now I see that prospects picked in the same vicinity are making it and he's not? Then I'll agree that it was a bad pick and not just one I don't like.

 

[Stew]

One position we need pretty soon would be a good hitting first baseman. We are not deep at that position. I think sabato will have a O.P.S. in the mid 700's range. Maybe even  the 800 range. That should be good enough to be on the forty man roster. And we likely will trade some players by the deadline. I can't believe we will hang on to all the outfielders we have.

[weitz41]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

If you look at his college numbers you wouldn't predict 140 strikeouts a season but that's what he's done in the minors.

No kidding. His last full season was 2019:

2019	20	-0.5	North Carolina	ACC	NCAA		64	278	230	47	79	25	1	18	63	0	1	39	56	.344	.453	.696	1.149	160	6	8	0	1

Brooks Lee 2022:

2022	21	-0.2	Cal Poly San Luis Obispo	BigW	NCAA		58	286	235	56	84	25	1	15	55	3	1	46	28	.357	.462	.664	1.125	156		2	0	3

Kind of makes you say what  the heck happened?

[Devilsadvocate]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

If you look at his college numbers you wouldn't predict 140 strikeouts a season but that's what he's done in the minors. 

Actually if you pro rate his per game strikeout numbers in college (.87) over 150 games that would equate to 130 K's. With minor league pitching being better than college pitching from an overall perspective, I think it was completely reasonably to expect 150 K's+ at any level above college and I think many here expected lots of whiffs.

[nicksaviking]

That was a weird draft and it might go down as an overall bust for the league. Obviously it's early but only two players drafted after Sabato have managed to make the majors so far. One of them is Spencer Strider who was the 6th to last pick in the entire and might end up being the best (only?!?) player who's any good.

Though I'm hoping it's the 4th to last player selected who ends up being the best.

[jmlease1]

11 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

That was a weird draft and it might go down as an overall bust for the league. Obviously it's early but only two players drafter after Sabato have managed to make the majors so far. One of them is Spencer Strider who was the 6th to last pick in the entire and might end up being the best (only?!?) player who's any good.

Though I'm hoping it's the 4th to last player selected who ends up being the best.

very weird draft. Only 5 rounds? I'm guessing the pandemic was already messing up scouting opportunities as well.

I wasn't thrilled about the pick at the time, but I do understand the thought process: they looked at his power production in college and his batting eye and thought he might be someone who could contribute quickly with his bat, even if he didn't add anything defensively. At the end of the round you're going to have more flaws in a player's game and/or more risk in their development.

Sabato has immense power, and he's still able to draw walks, but his contact rate is dreadful. Wooden bat problem, maybe? ball that still flew out in college are just getting fouled back?

The regression in cedar rapids last season wasn't enough to stop him from getting promoted, but it was still disappointing after his short stint there in 2021. there as hope that getting him out of the FSL might have unlocked something for him, but it's not really looking that way.

He's got a lot of work to do in order to get himself on the 40-man. Right now, he's a pretty easy guy to expose in the Rule 5: he adds little to nothing on D and his contract rates don't allow his power production to play. The good eye at the plate isn't enough if he can't make contact when he swings, and eventually better pitchers will pump the zone on him if he can't punish them for it.

You never know, but it's not looking great here.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, GKuehl said:

Though both are busts, the Cavaco and Sabato picks are polar opposites. We criticize the FO for drafting Cavaco as a toolsy prep infielder with massive upside if he ever put it all together, and we also criticize the FO for drafting Sabato as a high-floor, low-ceiling prospect who was likely to make it to the majors as a DH.

Are we just blinded by hindsight? Maybe -- if Sabato was hitting like we all expected he would after we drafted him, the pick would make a lot of sense, especially considering how much this year's version of the team could use a righty power bat. 

Drafting is tough.  That said ... Cavaco was a big reach and many of us said so at the time.  Nobody had Cavaco anywhere near this high and you just don't need to reach this much on the 13th pick.  Corbin Carroll and Bryson Stott were highly regarded.  I was sure they would take Carroll when he was still there at 13.  How great would it be to have Carroll to back-up Buxton?

Picking at 27 is no sure thing but there were a lot of people here asked why take a guy with 1 tool in the first round.  The Dodgers got a great pitcher two picks later.  Can you imagine if we had taken Corbin Carroll and Bobby Miller instead of Cavaco and Saboto?  The trajectory of this team would look really good.

[Mike Sixel]

28 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Drafting is tough.  That said ... Cavaco was a big reach and many of us said so at the time.  Nobody had Cavaco anywhere near this high and you just don't need to reach this much on the 13th pick.  Corbin Carroll and Bryson Stott were highly regarded.  I was sure they would take Carroll when he was still there at 13.  How great would it be to have Carroll to back-up Buxton?

Picking at 27 is no sure thing but there were a lot of people here asked why take a guy with 1 tool in the first round.  The Dodgers got a great pitcher two picks later.  Can you imagine if we had taken Corbin Carroll and Bobby Miller instead of Cavaco and Saboto?  The trajectory of this team would look really good.

This. Both picks were second guessed immediately when made. 

I wish both of them well. I'm sure they are working hard to be the player they want to be. Both seem however, limited in that likelihood.

[ashbury]

17 HR by a 23-year old at High-A ball, followed by 5 more in short duty at AA?  Seems like nothing to sneeze at.  I decided to take a look back, 10 years ago, and see what happened afterward to anyone with similar age and numbers at high-A in 2012.

At first I was going to look at the Twins own farm system, but High-A back then was in Ft Myers, and the Florida State League is widely considered a pitcher's league.  Certainly no one on that 2012 squad approached those figures.  So I opted for a different franchise and picked the Giants at random.  Their High-A team in 2012 was in San Jose in the higher-offense California League.

On that team was Adam Duvall, who at age 23 hit 30 dingers.  He used 598 PA in which to accomplish that, while our guy Aaron had his HR in only 348 and 99 at A+ and AA respectively.  Duvall's BA was .258 while Sabato's was .226/.179, but adding in walks Sabato's OBP was actually a tad higher of the two.  Not a perfect comp but close enough to suit me.

Lots of minor leaguers fail, regardless of their pedigree or resume up to a given point.  So I'm not going to continue looking for additional comps *cough* Kennys Vargas 2013 *cough*.  If Sabato turns out like Duvall, for a few seasons, and it looks like he does have a chance, then our late first rounder will have worked out OK.