Is Spencer Steer a better prospect than Royce Lewis?

[Rik19753]

Fangraphs recently released its 2023 top 100 prospects list and three Twins prospects made the list.

They were

Brooks Lee at 19th

Royce Lewis at 55th

Edouard Julien at 75th

Those rankings are similar to other prospect rankings, so no huge surprises there. One mild surprise may be E.Rod's omission. Fangraphs cited his injury concern and high K% as reasons that he didn't make the list.

 

But what caught my eye was the 47th ranked prospect, former friend Spencer Steer. Yes, Steer was ranked ahead of Royce Lewis. Now, I've looked at several prospect rankings and have never seen Steer anywhere close to 47th, so it's probably safe to say that it is not the national perception. In reality, I have a hard time thinking any major league GM would choose Steer over Lewis. However, I am a big believer in Fangraphs and they seem to be right often when they are bullish on prospects that are generally not regarded that highly, so I am a little worried.

 

When the Mahle trade happened last year, I think most (myself included) were pleasantly surprised that the headliner was Steer and thought that the price was cheap compared to the Montas and Luis Castillo trades. But in Fangraphs' rankings, Ken Waldichuk (the main piece in the Montas trade) and Noelvi Marte (main piece in Castillo trade) are ranked more than 40 spots lower. Were we wrong to think that the FO had gotten a good price on Mahle? I shudder to think that the Mahle trade may turn out to be even worse than it seems right now.

 

Is it possible that Steer is a better prospect than Royce Lewis? And did the FO get fleeced in the Mahle trade? Let me know what you think.

[Heistyman]

Boy I do not see the ceiling in Steer that I do with Lewis.  Steer seems like a utility infielder with a solid hit tool with mediocre power and solid fielding. Lewis may not have quite the hit tool of Steer but the athleticism and power are much better.  I would still put Royce ahead of Steer but the injury concerns may be dragging Lewis' down at Fangraphs.

[old nurse]

Fangraphs pretty much goes off algorithm for the ratings. A player that is not on the field is useless in any scenario. Limited defensively but can hit is going to be more valued than often injured

[FlyingFinn]

Only in the injury category so far. If they believe Lewis will keep getting injured, that would be the only reason to have Steer above Lewis (and I loved Steer's hitting in the minors).

Another much talked about prospect who was traded is once again injured, much like Lewis - that is Ben Rortvedt. He can't seem to catch a break either. Maybe it was just good luck to trade him or we would be complaining about another injured prospect.

[baul0010]

This is an easy short answer.  No.

[weitz41]

Steer is a good prospect and is probably ranked higher due to health not potential.

There's just a lot pushing Lewis down prospect lists but it's not talent or tools related. If Lewis didn't get injured again last season, he would have graduated from the prospect lists.

I still believe the Mahle trade was a good deal for the Twins.

[JD-TWINS]

I live in Cincinnati & though I pay way more attention to the Twins, I’m exposed to the Reds. There’s nobody here that thinks Steer is anywhere near what Twins fans think of Lewis.

This may be due to the sharp contrast in production in 2022 for the two? Lewis stint was awfully short. Steer maybe 2 months?? He wasn’t lighting the world on fire.

Maybe it’s that the fans upbeat view in MN v. the BEAT DOWN FANS in Cincinnati? I think our top 4 guys salaries make up the entire Reds budget for ‘23. 

Unless Mahle breaks down & can’t pitch at all, it was a good risk.

Prior to deadline I was promoting in the TD Forum……don’t get enamored with Mahle, throw everything in needed to get the guy that ended up in Seattle - the ACE.

[TwinsDr2021]

To be honest Steer is already 25 so I don't really see him a prospect anymore, I believe he will be a solid major league player going forward but don't see any all star games in his future (unless it is a they need a player from every team type) , Lewis doesn't turn 24 until June, so IMO this his basically his last year as a prospect, but I could see him getting healthy and having a couple of all star types seasons.

[Dman]

There is a lot to like about Steer.  He has a good eye at the plate. A good K rate. He hits for a decent average with power.  His defense should be solid at 2nd or 3rd and he could probably play left if needed.  He is a good player that could over achieve to great but will have to wait and see.

Still Lewis's skills and ability to play premium positions makes him far more valuable than Steer could ever be.  Lewis just has such a short track record due to injury there isn't much to go on except SSS.  The hit tool has to work out for his value to increase right now and there isn't enough to go on to project it IMO.  Still IMO Steer will never match Lewis's Speed, arm, defensive flexibility so Lewis will always be better unless of course he becomes so injured he can't play and or his bat goes belly up.

In a perfect world Lewis would have enough time last year to be off prospect lists but alas here we are with the same uncertainty we have had with him for years.

 

[Trov]

No way is Steer a better prospect that Lewis.  Steer may be a solid player, but his upside is not better than Lewis.  First, Lewis can play SS better than Steer.  Lewis has more speed, and better hit tool than Steer.  I really feel the ranking is based on Lewis missing so much time.  

I was fine with Steer getting sent out because we have guys like Lewis and Lee ahead of him in infield depth charts.  I do think Steer will have a solid few years.  If you just look at what the 2 did last year at both AAA and MLB level.  Lewis had half the at bats but in that very short sample lit it up.  Steer had OPS+ of 72, Lewis OPS+ 145.  Yes, both very short sample, but clearly a difference.  If you look at their time in AAA, Lewis had OPS of 940, Steer had OPS of 830 in St. Paul, and 842 in Louisville.  

I just would point out, the prospect rankings are very speculative overall, and being ranked high really means nothing about what they will do at MLB overall.  Many guys end up high on prospect lists, then fall off, or start off and fly up the lists.  They are so fluid. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 hour ago, baul0010 said:

This is an easy short answer.  No.

Came here to add this comment.

[tony&rodney]

Royce Lewis is dinged (as a prospect) because he has missed so much time with injuries. He has also played around with his swing and not looked like a sure-fire shortstop. That makes sense that there is doubt about him.

Spencer Steer has been consistently solid and in the lineup. His timing is pretty good because he will get an opportunity to show his worth in Cincinnati before their top prospects arrive.

Lewis is bigger, faster, and stronger with some real obvious athletic advantages as compared to many other players like Steer. When Royce returns fully healed and built up after a short stay in St. Paul, there should be a chance for him to show his skills and put potential in play. 

Eric Longenhagen may feel that Steer is more likely to use what talent he has while he sees Lewis as too flawed to reach the expected stardom of a 1-1 draft choice. We will all know much more by the end of this season. 

Steer is a good baseball player. I would take Lewis every time though.

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, old nurse said:

Fangraphs pretty much goes off algorithm for the ratings. A player that is not on the field is useless in any scenario. Limited defensively but can hit is going to be more valued than often injured

Bingo! Although fangraphs is a nice tool you need to take these things into consideration. That's why E Rod & Lewis were hammered. There's no way I'd take Steer over Lewis or E Rod.

[Blyleven2011]

Offense and pitching is the name of the game ...

We got the pitcher in the trade  , Cincinnati got some good hitters in steer and encarnacion-strand  and LHP  pitcher hajjar ...

I liked both of those hitters but I'd take Lewis and his potential over steer or strand  ...

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think that prospect lists are pretty nice to know who the younger level “up and comers” are, but I think that once they get close to (or in) the majors, a difference of a few ticks in prospect ranking doesn’t really mean much if anything.  At that point, it can be all about fit on a team or opportunity in the right circumstances.  

Those reasons along with health are probably why this prospect list is higher on Steer than Lewis.  I think the long term outlook probably favors Lewis, but in the short term, Steer may be a better bet for a good season this year.

[baul0010]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Came here to add this comment.

Oh sorry.  Did you need a thousand word essay on why Spencer Steer is not and won't be better than Royce Lewis?  You really don't need more than one word to answer.  Steer seems like a nice prospect.  You'd never flip Lewis for Tyler Mahle.  If Lewis can perform even close to his short MLB call up, there are going to be some very happy Twins fans.  From all accounts, Lewis is a great young man, works hard at the game, and he will succeed.

[bird]

At Lewis's peak as a prospect, Fangraphs had him as a 65FV guy IIRC. Steer is peaking in 2023 at 50FV, which is up from 2022's 40+ value. His upgrade, if I'm interpreting Longhagen's comments correctly, mostly stems from his belief in the sustainability of Steer's power surge and a shoulder shrug regarding his defensive flaws.

We'll see, but MLB may expose Steer over time. Previous reported flaws: inaccurate throws, lousy range, trouble with high fastballs, prowess limited to middle-middle pitches, and a propensity to chase sliders off the plate. Maybe he overcomes all of this, and maybe not. But we know Royce Lewis, Mr. Steer, and you're no Royce Lewis.

[Seth Stohs]

It's an interesting question. It's a question of ceiling vs likelihood of reaching it (in this case, solely based on Lewis's injuries). 

Another way to look at it... Would Twins fans rather have Jose Miranda at 3B or Spencer Steer? Where would Miranda rank on a prospect list now since he's younger than Steer and has achieved more as of now. I think the Twins were probably nice to Steer, using a high quality person and player from a position of depth (along with Encarnacion-Strand) to add a upper-rotation quality pitcher. 

But... Steer is a really good ballplayer. The Twins love him. He's got power and speed and a good glove and can play multiple positions. I think he'll have a long, quality career. If Steer was still with the Twins, I think I'd rank him third or fourth, maybe just ahead of E-Rod and ahead of Edouard Julien due to his defensive capabilities.  

That said, Lewis's ceiling is really, really high... 

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

I think I'd rank him third or fourth, maybe just ahead of E-Rod and ahead of Edouard Julien due to his defensive capabilities. 

I have only seen Steer play on milb.com. He is a good player but I'm thinking that people may be a little short on the bat of Julien. I have never been a huge fan of guys who struggled with the glove but have also always recognized the value of a Kyle Schwarber or Max Muncy because I grew up with Harmon Killebrew. The rankings are solid guesses with quite a bit of leg work behind the articles, which I respect. Nevertheless, I will take Julien every single time over Steer. E-Rod is a phenomena at this point, similar to Julio Rodriguez but our guy still needs to make the jump to prove himself. I'm with Keith Law on Emmanuel.

[Vanimal46]

4 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I think that prospect lists are pretty nice to know who the younger level “up and comers” are, but I think that once they get close to (or in) the majors, a difference of a few ticks in prospect ranking doesn’t really mean much if anything.  At that point, it can be all about fit on a team or opportunity in the right circumstances.  

Those reasons along with health are probably why this prospect list is higher on Steer than Lewis.  I think the long term outlook probably favors Lewis, but in the short term, Steer may be a better bet for a good season this year.

Excellent post. Completely agree!

[Twodogs]

I'm thinking that this ranking would be affected had Steer stayed in Minnesota.  I mean he would pretty much be blocked at all positions that he is capable of playing, by current prospects and major leaguers.  In Cincinnati he probably has a little bit of an opening to actually play.  I wonder how much that factors in?  I mean even Royce Lewis is SS/CF capable, but is that realistically going to happen in Minnesota with Buxton and Correa in the way?  Lewis in a year or so will probably become the left fielder unless there are injuries and such.  I just wonder how much opportunity affects these lists?

[gunnarthor]

My guess, without looking at fangraphs, is that they have Lewis as a higher future value player but Steer as a safer prospect with a solid floor. Depending on what you want, how you measure risk, it can make sense to have Steer above Lewis. 

As for the Mahle trade, the guy has only thrown 16 mediocre innings for us so, so far, we got fleeced. Hopefully, he is healthy this year. 

[miracleb]

Steer was rushed up with Cinci last year (to justify the trade?)  I think he can be a solid "journeyman" 3rd baseman.  I wouldn't want him over Miranda.....so trading him was probably going to be in the cards even if this trade hadn't happened.