How many wins? (2023 EDITION)

[Mike Sixel]

20 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

I went with 75-79 wins. This is basically the same team as last year and that team was a bad team. The Twins are really hoping on health. If everything breaks right, you can see the Twins winning the central but a lot has to break right. I don't like this pitching staff although I do like some of our young and upcoming hitters. My guess is that we end up trading off some vets at the deadline. I do hope I'm wrong.

They were on pace for 90 wins when the injury bug decimated them so much they were playing their 6-8th best OFers all at the same time.......It isn't "hope" that they won't have that many again, IMO. Also, Bundy and Archer are replaced by two legit #3 (maybe number 2) pitchers, how is that the same?

[gunnarthor]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

They were on pace for 90 wins when the injury bug decimated them so much they were playing their 6-8th best OFers all at the same time.......It isn't "hope" that they won't have that many again, IMO. Also, Bundy and Archer are replaced by two legit #3 (maybe number 2) pitchers, how is that the same?

You and I just disagree on how good the pitchers that are here are. While I like Lopez, the Twins can't reasonably expect Gray and Ryan to be better than last years numbers. Kenta Maeda isn't a starter anymore. Mahle has injury concerns. The Twins also have a bunch of AAA/A arms - Ober, Winder, Varland, SWR, etc - but none of them are givens and none of them are highly regarded in the prospect world. 

Ryan, Gray, Mahle, and Lopez need to be healthy and need to pitch near their career peaks for the Twins to be above .500. Behind them, it's a crap shoot. I don't trust those four to stay healthy as a group. Last year, the four of them combined for about 100 starts. 10 WAR, and 560 innings. I would take the under on all three of those this year.  And, even if they all hit that benchmark, it might not be enough to get the Twins over .500. 

[Mike Sixel]

10 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

You and I just disagree on how good the pitchers that are here are. While I like Lopez, the Twins can't reasonably expect Gray and Ryan to be better than last years numbers. Kenta Maeda isn't a starter anymore. Mahle has injury concerns. The Twins also have a bunch of AAA/A arms - Ober, Winder, Varland, SWR, etc - but none of them are givens and none of them are highly regarded in the prospect world. 

Ryan, Gray, Mahle, and Lopez need to be healthy and need to pitch near their career peaks for the Twins to be above .500. Behind them, it's a crap shoot. I don't trust those four to stay healthy as a group. Last year, the four of them combined for about 100 starts. 10 WAR, and 560 innings. I would take the under on all three of those this year.  And, even if they all hit that benchmark, it might not be enough to get the Twins over .500. 

Archer and Bundy were number 5 starters.....you really think the replacements wont' be better?

[gunnarthor]

18 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Archer and Bundy were number 5 starters.....you really think the replacements wont' be better?

Bundy and Archer were bad - they combined for 1.2 fWAR (bWAR was far worse) in 240 innings. So there will be some improvement from getting rid of them but how much would depend on who is pitching those 240 innings. If it's Varland or Winder, maybe no better. If the comparison is Bundy/Archer (1.2 fWAR, 240 ip) v. Mahle/Lopez (5 fWAR, 300ip), it's pretty clear which is better, but even that's not as big. What's the cost of the increase? Lopez is good, I expect a 3 WARish season from him. But we lost 3 WAR from Arraez so net gain zero. Mahle gave us nothing but was worth 2 WAR with the fish, so, in a perfect world where everything goes right, Gray, Ryan, Lopez and Mahle give us essentially 1 extra WAR after losing Bundy, Archer and Arraez. (And, again, that's with the hope that those four stay healthy and pitch well. I don't think that will happen). 

But, assume it all went great, as I said in my first post, even if all that goes right, this still might not be a .500 team because I don't think the Twins did enough to improve the team. If you squint, you can see how this could be a pretty good offense. But you're squinting because a lot has to break right there, too. The team lacks depth, has a strangely weird combination of older players needing to bounce back with unproven but also surprisingly old inexperienced players needing to break through. But, looking at the roster, you essentially have to find a +7-10 WAR from last years team to think this is a playoff team. I don't see that improvement, even with Bundy and Archer gone.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

Bundy and Archer were bad - they combined for 1.2 fWAR (bWAR was far worse) in 240 innings. So there will be some improvement from getting rid of them but how much would depend on who is pitching those 240 innings. If it's Varland or Winder, maybe no better. If the comparison is Bundy/Archer (1.2 fWAR, 240 ip) v. Mahle/Lopez (5 fWAR, 300ip), it's pretty clear which is better, but even that's not as big. What's the cost of the increase? Lopez is good, I expect a 3 WARish season from him. But we lost 3 WAR from Arraez so net gain zero. Mahle gave us nothing but was worth 2 WAR with the fish, so, in a perfect world where everything goes right, Gray, Ryan, Lopez and Mahle give us essentially 1 extra WAR after losing Bundy, Archer and Arraez. (And, again, that's with the hope that those four stay healthy and pitch well. I don't think that will happen). 

But, assume it all went great, as I said in my first post, even if all that goes right, this still might not be a .500 team because I don't think the Twins did enough to improve the team. If you squint, you can see how this could be a pretty good offense. But you're squinting because a lot has to break right there, too. The team lacks depth, has a strangely weird combination of older players needing to bounce back with unproven but also surprisingly old inexperienced players needing to break through. But, looking at the roster, you essentially have to find a +7-10 WAR from last years team to think this is a playoff team. I don't see that improvement, even with Bundy and Archer gone.

Lacks depth? They are 109% deep in the infield. They have Gordon and Taylor as backup outfielders. Jeffers is now the second catcher. Depth they have. Stars? That's another question.

[gunnarthor]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Lacks depth? They are 109% deep in the infield. They have Gordon and Taylor as backup outfielders. Jeffers is now the second catcher. Depth they have. Stars? That's another question.

Maybe I should have said "good depth." 😁

 

[Twins33]

Last year I was pretty close to the win total, unfortunately. I really like the rotation especially subtracting Bundy and Archer types. If they are relatively healthy, I see this team doing well.

I say 92 wins.

[notoriousgod71]

Oddly enough, I now consider the rotation as the strength of this team.

[Mike Sixel]

4 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

Maybe I should have said "good depth." 😁

 

Gordon was an average or better OF. Farmer starts for most teams. Taylor is an elite defender. Jeffers would be better than most every second catcher. They have 3 starters in AAA that start for half the teams in the league. What are you expecting for backups?

[Vanimal46]

38 minutes ago, notoriousgod71 said:

Oddly enough, I now consider the rotation as the strength of this team.

Agreed. Frankly I didn’t think pitching was the biggest problem last year. I was way more concerned about the feast or famine offense. We will see if that has changed. 

[gunnarthor]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Gordon was an average or better OF. Farmer starts for most teams. Taylor is an elite defender. Jeffers would be better than most every second catcher. They have 3 starters in AAA that start for half the teams in the league. What are you expecting for backups?

What three starters do we have in AAA that are starters for half of baseball?

Farmer managed 1 WAR in 145 games for the Reds last season. He's 32 and the projections don't like him. Jeffers failed as a starter so we brought in a 32 year old who should be a back up. I like Taylor. He'll play a lot. But, again, a lot has to go right. Kepler, Gallo, Kiriloff have to be better. Miranda has to show he can play third in the majors. There is some nice depth in the minors - Lewis, Lee, Julien, Martin - and enough left in the majors - Buxton, Correa, Polanco - that you can see where the Twins could be ok offensively. But there are a lot of ifs.

[Nashvilletwin]

8 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Gordon was an average or better OF. Farmer starts for most teams. Taylor is an elite defender. Jeffers would be better than most every second catcher. They have 3 starters in AAA that start for half the teams in the league. What are you expecting for backups?

Agreed.  Btw, Gordon and Farmer are going to start a whole lotta games this season.

[Brad.dahlen]

I am going to go with exactly 90 wins for this club.

[Major League Ready]

I just can’t comprehend how people can say this is the same team or they have not done enough.  The team that started 2022 was well above 500 and leading the division when the injuries piled up.  

The additions include two very good SPs (Mahle and Lopez).  That’s a very significant difference in itself.  In the BP, Alcala is back and they added Jorge Lopez.  Granted, Lopez was not good with us but he has great stuff and it’s reasonable to expect him to be a net gain and possibly a significant net gain.  Then, there is Kirilloff.  Sure, there is uncertainty but it’s still a positive development.  Farmer is also a better addition than he is getting credit for.  His defensive flexibility and ability against LHP is a net gain.

We also added depth to the pitching staff.  Ober is now the 6th starter.  Varland / Winder and SWR are legit depth.  Miranda was horrible to start the year.  We go into 2023 with a reasonable expectation he is a middle of the order bat.  We added a great defensive back-up in Taylor and Julien looks ready to contribute in 2023 as well.  

How is this the same team that started 2022?
 

[Squirrel]

25 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I just can’t comprehend how people can say this is the same team or they have not done enough.  The team that started 2022 was well above 500 and leading the division when the injuries piled up.  

The additions include two very good SPs (Mahle and Lopez).  That’s a very significant difference in itself.  In the BP, Alcala is back and they added Jorge Lopez.  Granted, Lopez was not good with us but he has great stuff and it’s reasonable to expect him to be a net gain and possibly a significant net gain.  Then, there is Kirilloff.  Sure, there is uncertainty but it’s still a positive development.  Farmer is also a better addition than he is getting credit for.  His defensive flexibility and ability against LHP is a net gain.

We also added depth to the pitching staff.  Ober is now the 6th starter.  Varland / Winder and SWR are legit depth.  Miranda was horrible to start the year.  We go into 2023 with a reasonable expectation he is a middle of the order bat.  We added a great defensive back-up in Taylor and Julien looks ready to contribute in 2023 as well.  

How is this the same team that started 2022?
 

I think last year I put the team at about 80 wins. This year I say 85. I’m still concerned with the BP. I don’t see enough there. And I am still concerned with the offense. I think we have guys who can hit, same as last year, but they need to hit. I think we finally have some depth, good depth, with our SP. Never thought I’d say that. Hopefully that takes the load off the BP some. The optimist in me thinks this team has the potential to win 90+ if the offense starts connecting and a couple of our pitchers really have great years, but the realist says 85. I think I’m going to enjoy watching them this year and am really looking forward to the season starting, and that’s not something I could’ve said last year or the year before.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I think they win in the range of 88 wins. They were certainly on that path last year before the trade deadline. I think they are a better and deeper team today than at any point in 2022. Doesn't mean they will be better, but if they stay healthy, and the younger guys (Miranda/Kirilloff et al) take a step forward like we expect, then I think they win 88 or more games.

[gunnarthor]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I just can’t comprehend how people can say this is the same team or they have not done enough.  The team that started 2022 was well above 500 and leading the division when the injuries piled up.  

The additions include two very good SPs (Mahle and Lopez).  That’s a very significant difference in itself.  In the BP, Alcala is back and they added Jorge Lopez.  Granted, Lopez was not good with us but he has great stuff and it’s reasonable to expect him to be a net gain and possibly a significant net gain.  Then, there is Kirilloff.  Sure, there is uncertainty but it’s still a positive development.  Farmer is also a better addition than he is getting credit for.  His defensive flexibility and ability against LHP is a net gain.

We also added depth to the pitching staff.  Ober is now the 6th starter.  Varland / Winder and SWR are legit depth.  Miranda was horrible to start the year.  We go into 2023 with a reasonable expectation he is a middle of the order bat.  We added a great defensive back-up in Taylor and Julien looks ready to contribute in 2023 as well.  

How is this the same team that started 2022?
 

It's because there are so many "ifs" and hopes on this team. The Twins were hurt a lot last year so we're going to hope those same players are healthy this year. IF Kiriloff's wrist is fixed, he's probably a pretty good hitter. If Mahle's shoulder is good, he's a good pitcher. etc

But the injuries are overstated. Every team dealt with injuries. The Twins arguably had a top five offense (by rate stats) last year and were a bit unlucky so there are certainly things we can hope improve - Buxton stays healthy, Kepler improves, Larnich or Wallner or someone claims LF, Miranda isn't a disaster at third. Guys like Farmer and Gordon can play well in platoon roles but not as everyday starters (one can't hit lefties, one can't hit righties). Again, you can see a top offense isn't a ridiculous idea. But it does require a lot of things to go right. 

But it's the pitching. It's a whole bunch of hope. Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Mahle are good ML starters IF they are healthy but that is a huge if. Behind them, we have a bunch of untested, generally not well regarded arms like Ober, Winder, SWR, etc. The pen has Duran and a bunch of AAAA arms. 

I don't see how this team is significantly different from last years team which was a bad team. To blame that entirely on injuries is just wishful thinking. 

[Squirrel]

1 minute ago, gunnarthor said:

It's because there are so many "ifs" and hopes on this team. The Twins were hurt a lot last year so we're going to hope those same players are healthy this year. IF Kiriloff's wrist is fixed, he's probably a pretty good hitter. If Mahle's shoulder is good, he's a good pitcher. etc

But the injuries are overstated. Every team dealt with injuries. The Twins arguably had a top five offense (by rate stats) last year and were a bit unlucky so there are certainly things we can hope improve - Buxton stays healthy, Kepler improves, Larnich or Wallner or someone claims LF, Miranda isn't a disaster at third. Guys like Farmer and Gordon can play well in platoon roles but not as everyday starters (one can't hit lefties, one can't hit righties). Again, you can see a top offense isn't a ridiculous idea. But it does require a lot of things to go right. 

But it's the pitching. It's a whole bunch of hope. Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Mahle are good ML starters IF they are healthy but that is a huge if. Behind them, we have a bunch of untested, generally not well regarded arms like Ober, Winder, SWR, etc. The pen has Duran and a bunch of AAAA arms. 

I don't see how this team is significantly different from last years team which was a bad team. To blame that entirely on injuries is just wishful thinking. 

While I think we can agree that this isn’t a WS team, and as I stated I think we are an 85 win team, I think this team IS better than last year. Even without Mahle, should his shoulder act up, the starting depth is better than relying on Archer and Bundy. Heck, even if our depth as a 6th starter were one of them, that’s better than what we rolled with last year. Farmer and Solano as depth in the infield is better than what we rolled with last year. Gallo and Taylor are better than Cave and the others we had to go with in the OF. It’s a better team, even if only by a 5-game margin, it’s a better team. And yes, the Twins were one of I think 3 or 4 teams that had significant injuries, it did play a roll. I think you are trying to understate that impact to push a narrative here.

[Cory Engelhardt]

6 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

It's because there are so many "ifs" and hopes on this team. The Twins were hurt a lot last year so we're going to hope those same players are healthy this year. IF Kiriloff's wrist is fixed, he's probably a pretty good hitter. If Mahle's shoulder is good, he's a good pitcher. etc

But the injuries are overstated. Every team dealt with injuries. The Twins arguably had a top five offense (by rate stats) last year and were a bit unlucky so there are certainly things we can hope improve - Buxton stays healthy, Kepler improves, Larnich or Wallner or someone claims LF, Miranda isn't a disaster at third. Guys like Farmer and Gordon can play well in platoon roles but not as everyday starters (one can't hit lefties, one can't hit righties). Again, you can see a top offense isn't a ridiculous idea. But it does require a lot of things to go right. 

But it's the pitching. It's a whole bunch of hope. Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Mahle are good ML starters IF they are healthy but that is a huge if. Behind them, we have a bunch of untested, generally not well regarded arms like Ober, Winder, SWR, etc. The pen has Duran and a bunch of AAAA arms. 

I don't see how this team is significantly different from last years team which was a bad team. To blame that entirely on injuries is just wishful thinking. 

Barring health, to say this team isn't as good as last year, when you are literally replacing (at minimum) Vazquez's pitch calling for Sanchez, Lopez and Mahle and Maeda for Bundy and Archer, and legit depth in the outfield and infield (Farmer/Taylor/Solano) over the likes of Jake Cave et al. 

I mean, yes, health is always an issue. But to think what I listed aren't massive improvements is shortsighted at best.

[Major League Ready]

22 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

It's because there are so many "ifs" and hopes on this team. The Twins were hurt a lot last year so we're going to hope those same players are healthy this year. IF Kiriloff's wrist is fixed, he's probably a pretty good hitter. If Mahle's shoulder is good, he's a good pitcher. etc

But the injuries are overstated. Every team dealt with injuries. The Twins arguably had a top five offense (by rate stats) last year and were a bit unlucky so there are certainly things we can hope improve - Buxton stays healthy, Kepler improves, Larnich or Wallner or someone claims LF, Miranda isn't a disaster at third. Guys like Farmer and Gordon can play well in platoon roles but not as everyday starters (one can't hit lefties, one can't hit righties). Again, you can see a top offense isn't a ridiculous idea. But it does require a lot of things to go right. 

But it's the pitching. It's a whole bunch of hope. Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Mahle are good ML starters IF they are healthy but that is a huge if. Behind them, we have a bunch of untested, generally not well regarded arms like Ober, Winder, SWR, etc. The pen has Duran and a bunch of AAAA arms. 

I don't see how this team is significantly different from last years team which was a bad team. To blame that entirely on injuries is just wishful thinking. 

So what you are saying is that if four of our proven SPs go down we don't have four more proven pitchers to replace them.  Sorry, but that's just unrealistic.  The facts are we added Mahle / P. Lopez and J Lopex.  That's a significantly different team and we have lots of depth.  That depth is never proven middle of the rotation guys for any team.

Taylor's defense and Farmers ability to hit LH pitching are improvements.

No, we can't count on Kirrilloff / Alcala / Maeda / Larnach / Julien, etc. individually.  To expect all of them to contribute would be very overly optimistic.  However, the odds are a couple of this group provide a contribution.  Therefore, the team is better positioned than it was last year.  If you want to see everything from a worst case scenario the outcome is always going to look bleak.

[Mike Sixel]

10 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

What three starters do we have in AAA that are starters for half of baseball?

Farmer managed 1 WAR in 145 games for the Reds last season. He's 32 and the projections don't like him. Jeffers failed as a starter so we brought in a 32 year old who should be a back up. I like Taylor. He'll play a lot. But, again, a lot has to go right. Kepler, Gallo, Kiriloff have to be better. Miranda has to show he can play third in the majors. There is some nice depth in the minors - Lewis, Lee, Julien, Martin - and enough left in the majors - Buxton, Correa, Polanco - that you can see where the Twins could be ok offensively. But there are a lot of ifs.

Jeffers just been hurt, I'm not sure he's failed yet . .Ober, SWR, start for more than half the teams in this league, easy. Look at the pitching out there. We're just going to disagree. The floor is high here, the ceiling, as you note, requires a lot to go right. 

[Vanimal46]

I appreciate that the new focus Falvey built for 2023 is pitching and defense. The offense on the other hand, I’m in wait and see mode.

We are relying on 6 of the projected 9 starters (Kirilloff, Kepler, Gallo, Miranda, Polanco, Buxton) to either bounce back from injury, regain previous value, or make the next step in their career progression. As we all know development isn’t linear. So out of the 6, we can reasonably expect 2 to have better #s than last year, 2 to be about the same, and 2 to have worse #s than last year. 

Buxton is once again the key to success. I hope we don’t see him selling out his swing for HRs as much as we saw last year. I’d love to see more vintage Buxton hitting it through the infield and sprinting to 2B. Here’s to hoping once again he makes it to 100 games played. 

[Major League Ready]

10 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

I appreciate that the new focus Falvey built for 2023 is pitching and defense. The offense on the other hand, I’m in wait and see mode.

We are relying on 6 of the projected 9 starters (Kirilloff, Kepler, Gallo, Miranda, Polanco, Buxton) to either bounce back from injury, regain previous value, or make the next step in their career progression. As we all know development isn’t linear. So out of the 6, we can reasonably expect 2 to have better #s than last year, 2 to be about the same, and 2 to have worse #s than last year. 

Buxton is once again the key to success. I hope we don’t see him selling out his swing for HRs as much as we saw last year. I’d love to see more vintage Buxton hitting it through the infield and sprinting to 2B. Here’s to hoping once again he makes it to 100 games played. 

There no doubt is uncertainty with this team but it's not just about linear development.  We had an unusually high rate of injury.  Therefore, the odds are we have less injury this year.  Gallo had a very bad year compared to his career numbers.  It's more likely he we will be better than worse.  Kirilloff only had 150 PAs and was hampered by injury all year.  His production has a far better chance of improving than getting worse.  Mike stated it well when he said the ceiling is in question but the floor is higher.

[gunnarthor]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

So what you are saying is that if four of our proven SPs go down we don't have four more proven pitchers to replace them.  Sorry, but that's just unrealistic.  The facts are we added Mahle / P. Lopez and J Lopex.  That's a significantly different team and we have lots of depth.  That depth is never proven middle of the rotation guys for any team.

Taylor's defense and Farmers ability to hit LH pitching are improvements.

No, we can't count on Kirrilloff / Alcala / Maeda / Larnach / Julien, etc. individually.  To expect all of them to contribute would be very overly optimistic.  However, the odds are a couple of this group provide a contribution.  Therefore, the team is better positioned than it was last year.  If you want to see everything from a worst case scenario the outcome is always going to look bleak.

First, and this isn't just necessarily to your response but others as well, the Twins weren't the only team that dealt with injuries. The White Sox lost Jiminez, Moncada, and Anderson for large chunks of the season and still were better than us. 

But if you have players who get hurt they tend to continue to get hurt as they get older. It's not realistic to think that this team will be healthier just b/c last year was a bad health year. Second, even if the team is better positioned than last year, it was still a bad team last year. (We also had Mahle and J. Lopez last year). This might be where you and I most differ. A lot of people think last year's team would have been good but for the injuries to Maeda and Sano and whomever. I did not. I thought last years pitching was bad. The early 120 OPS+ was unsustainable, that that it would revert to true talent level. And it did. Same here. We don't have a good enough pitching staff. Even if Mahle, Lopez, Gray and Ryan each stay healthy, this still might not be a .500 team. 

I do like some of our young players, especially Julien and Lee. And I'm pretty bullish on Martin. I think there is some really good offensive potential. Correa, Buxton and Polanco could combine for 15+ WAR up the middle. There absolutely is some reason for optimism. But I still think the most realistic scenario is that this team finishes slightly below .500. 

[KirbyDome89]

85 wins because I feeling a little more hopeful than pragmatic. I think this squad is a lot closer to sub .500 than 90 wins though. It's been repeated throughout the thread, but they need a lot of things to break their way. 

[BsuNemo]

86 wins - but I think it depends on how Rocco uses the pitching staff. If he pulls early and often and the bullpen is crushed by September....it'll be a repeat of last year. I think that played into our collapse as much as injuries did. 

[KirbyDome89]

6 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

The additions include two very good SPs (Mahle and Lopez).  That’s a very significant difference in itself.  In the BP, Alcala is back and they added Jorge Lopez.  Granted, Lopez was not good with us but he has great stuff and it’s reasonable to expect him to be a net gain and possibly a significant net gain.  Then, there is Kirilloff.  Sure, there is uncertainty but it’s still a positive development.  Farmer is also a better addition than he is getting credit for.  His defensive flexibility and ability against LHP is a net gain.

We also added depth to the pitching staff.  Ober is now the 6th starter.  Varland / Winder and SWR are legit depth.  Miranda was horrible to start the year.  We go into 2023 with a reasonable expectation he is a middle of the order bat.  We added a great defensive back-up in Taylor and Julien looks ready to contribute in 2023 as well.  

How is this the same team that started 2022?
 

Alcala was terrible for most of 2021 and he's coming back post elbow surgery. He's far from some sort of production lock. Jorge Lopez, as you said, wasn't good in MN last year, and he lacks any kind of track record that would suggest his 1st half for Baltimore wasn't an aberration. Kirilloff isn't even swinging a bat right now is he? Will Ober even be healthy by the time his call up comes? Varland and SWR are complete unknowns. Winder wasn't good last year, and he's been shelved 3x in 2 years with the same shoulder issue that hasn't been resolved. 

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

So what you are saying is that if four of our proven SPs go down we don't have four more proven pitchers to replace them.  Sorry, but that's just unrealistic.  The facts are we added Mahle / P. Lopez and J Lopex.  That's a significantly different team and we have lots of depth.  That depth is never proven middle of the rotation guys for any team.

Taylor's defense and Farmers ability to hit LH pitching are improvements.

No, we can't count on Kirrilloff / Alcala / Maeda / Larnach / Julien, etc. individually.  To expect all of them to contribute would be very overly optimistic.  However, the odds are a couple of this group provide a contribution.  Therefore, the team is better positioned than it was last year.  If you want to see everything from a worst case scenario the outcome is always going to look bleak.

Gray threw 120 innings last year. Mahle matched that number and barely pitched in the 2nd half with shoulder "fatigue." Lopez threw a whopping 180 innings last year, but his previous two full seasons were cut short (111 &103 IP) due to injury and he wilted hard post May. Kenta Maeda is going to be 35 years old and throwing for the first time post elbow surgery. Sure, having 4 other proven arms to take their place is unrealistic, but that's not really the issue. The question is whether that group is going to stay healthy and productive enough that the Twins don't have to rely on unproven or underwhelming depth options for large chunks of time. 

If Buxton starts 50ish games in CF a la last season, and Taylor is out there for 85+ games, is his defense valuable enough to outweigh his meager offensive production and be an improvement?

On paper is this a better team than the one that began last season? Yes, I think so, but I also think it's pretty fragile.

[Brock Beauchamp]

On 2/27/2023 at 4:25 PM, chpettit19 said:

I think the schedule change is overstated. They're losing 6 games each against the Tigers and Royals. But they're getting to play 3 each against the Nationals, Pirates, and Reds. All of those teams finished worse than the Tigers and Royals last year, and the Twins didn't play. So they've made up 9 of the 12 games right there. It's not a straight swap of bad teams for good teams. They play the bad teams in their division less, but get to play the bad teams in other divisions more. The difference in schedule difficulty for the teams hit the hardest is like .008%. That's 1 win.

The easiest way to contextualize the schedule change is the following:

The less-unbalanced schedule means the Twins replace about 20 games against .450 winning percentage teams with 20 games against .500 winning percentage teams.

What's that worth? One more loss? Two, maybe? It's not much and could literally end up being nothing.