How many wins? (2023 EDITION)

[cHawk]

In the two previous seasons, our Minnesota Twins have fallen dramatically short of our expectations. Sought as a division-winner, possible World Series contender in 2021 and a potential division winner in 2022, the Twins have finished under .500 both seasons, leaving us fans in disappointment, disgust, and disarray.

Our favorite team hopes to break its two-year playoff drought in 2023, and they've demonstrated that by making several additions to the team this past offseason. Offseason additions include SP Pablo Lopez, OF Joey Gallo, and OF Michael A. Taylor. The team was also able to resign SS Carlos Correa. Finally, SP/RP Kenta Maeda, SS Royce Lewis, OF Alex Kirilloff, and others will be healthy and ready to contribute again in 2023. However, they did lose one major piece this past offseason: IF Luis Arraez. Arraez is reigning American League Batting Champion, and the Twins lineup could possibly suffer without him. That being said, they could also receive a boost from Lewis, Kirilloff, and others who will return healthy.

How many games do you see your favorite baseball team winning in 2023 and why?

cHawk's prediction: More than 95 (because I'm an optimistic homer)

[Heiny]

I said between 90-95 cuz I'm also an optimistic homer plus I like our team.  I think all the injuries are what kept us from winning 85-90 last year.  This year we have drastically improved our depth, on the pitching side and the position player side, and with a litlle luck on the side of health, we should be much better than last year.  See you at the ballpark.

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I picked 80-85. Starting pitching looks much better, but still look like they’ll struggle to score runs. The floor is raised, not the ceiling.

[MMMordabito]

I went with 80-85.  I do think the team is better, but the days of 38 games beating on the Royals and Tigers are over.

[wsnydes]

I said 80-85.  I think it's closer to 85 than 80, but I couldn't bring myself to go 86-90.  I think the new schedule format hurts them.  I like much of the additions they made, but I'm still not confident that they stack up well with the the better teams in the league.

[tony&rodney]

My guess is 85 wins, + or - 5. Baseball will have a little more balance this year across the league.

85 wins may be enough to win the AL Central, but I believe three teams will finish within four games of first place.

[chpettit19]

37 minutes ago, MMMordabito said:

I went with 80-85.  I do think the team is better, but the days of 38 games beating on the Royals and Tigers are over.

31 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

I said 80-85.  I think it's closer to 85 than 80, but I couldn't bring myself to go 86-90.  I think the new schedule format hurts them.  I like much of the additions they made, but I'm still not confident that they stack up well with the the better teams in the league.

I think the schedule change is overstated. They're losing 6 games each against the Tigers and Royals. But they're getting to play 3 each against the Nationals, Pirates, and Reds. All of those teams finished worse than the Tigers and Royals last year, and the Twins didn't play. So they've made up 9 of the 12 games right there. It's not a straight swap of bad teams for good teams. They play the bad teams in their division less, but get to play the bad teams in other divisions more. The difference in schedule difficulty for the teams hit the hardest is like .008%. That's 1 win.

[wsnydes]

15 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I think the schedule change is overstated. They're losing 6 games each against the Tigers and Royals. But they're getting to play 3 each against the Nationals, Pirates, and Reds. All of those teams finished worse than the Tigers and Royals last year, and the Twins didn't play. So they've made up 9 of the 12 games right there. It's not a straight swap of bad teams for good teams. They play the bad teams in their division less, but get to play the bad teams in other divisions more. The difference in schedule difficulty for the teams hit the hardest is like .008%. That's 1 win.

That one win was the difference between voting 80-85 and 86-90 though!  😆

[Doctor Gast]

Although I like this team as much as the '19 team, it's hard for me see them get over 95 wins. It depends on how well they adapt to the new rules and the times. Whither they take advantage of them or continue the way they are and be taken advantage of.

[wsnydes]

24 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I think the schedule change is overstated. They're losing 6 games each against the Tigers and Royals. But they're getting to play 3 each against the Nationals, Pirates, and Reds. All of those teams finished worse than the Tigers and Royals last year, and the Twins didn't play. So they've made up 9 of the 12 games right there. It's not a straight swap of bad teams for good teams. They play the bad teams in their division less, but get to play the bad teams in other divisions more. The difference in schedule difficulty for the teams hit the hardest is like .008%. That's 1 win.

There is a flip side to this too though.  They're also playing the better teams more as well.  Those teams are better than Cleveland and Chicago.  Both cases are true for those two teams as well, however.

I don't think the schedule is a huge difference, but I do think it can have the potential of maybe 5 wins.  In the grand scheme of things, that probably isn't a big deal since that also applies to the other division foes as well, but it probably matters when it comes time for playoff matchups.

[chpettit19]

55 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

There is a flip side to this too though.  They're also playing the better teams more as well.  Those teams are better than Cleveland and Chicago.  Both cases are true for those two teams as well, however.

I don't think the schedule is a huge difference, but I do think it can have the potential of maybe 5 wins.  In the grand scheme of things, that probably isn't a big deal since that also applies to the other division foes as well, but it probably matters when it comes time for playoff matchups.

This chat got me curious about the Twins schedule differences. This is all based on last year's record.

Games against teams with 90+ wins:
Last year 50
This year 51

Games against teams between 80-90 wins:
Last year 42
This year 38

Games against teams between 70-80 wins:
Last year 16
This year 19

Games against teams between 60-70 wins:
Last year 54
This year 51

Games against teams with fewer than 60 wins:
Last year 0
This year 3

Games against teams .500 or better:
Last year 92
This year 89

So their schedule last year actually would've been easier under this format. That doesn't really mean a whole heck of a lot since this is a totally new year, but I think it goes to the idea of the schedule change not automatically making the Twins schedule harder simply because they play in the AL Central.

Edit to add: I probably should've said "old format vs new format" instead of "last year vs this year"

[wsnydes]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

This chat got me curious about the Twins schedule differences. This is all based on last year's record.

Games against teams with 90+ wins:
Last year 50
This year 51

Games against teams between 80-90 wins:
Last year 42
This year 38

Games against teams between 70-80 wins:
Last year 16
This year 19

Games against teams between 60-70 wins:
Last year 54
This year 51

Games against teams with fewer than 60 wins:
Last year 0
This year 3

Games against teams .500 or better:
Last year 92
This year 89

So their schedule last year actually would've been easier under this format. That doesn't really mean a whole heck of a lot since this is a totally new year, but I think it goes to the idea of the schedule change not automatically making the Twins schedule harder simply because they play in the AL Central.

Interesting tidbit, indeed.

Thanks for working the numbers!

[Squirrel]

8 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

This chat got me curious about the Twins schedule differences. This is all based on last year's record.

Games against teams with 90+ wins:
Last year 50
This year 51

Games against teams between 80-90 wins:
Last year 42
This year 38

Games against teams between 70-80 wins:
Last year 16
This year 19

Games against teams between 60-70 wins:
Last year 54
This year 51

Games against teams with fewer than 60 wins:
Last year 0
This year 3

Games against teams .500 or better:
Last year 92
This year 89

So their schedule last year actually would've been easier under this format. That doesn't really mean a whole heck of a lot since this is a totally new year, but I think it goes to the idea of the schedule change not automatically making the Twins schedule harder simply because they play in the AL Central.

Edit to add: I probably should've said "old format vs new format" instead of "last year vs this year"

That doesn’t seem to be huge differences, imo. Either way, I still pick around 85 wins for the Twins

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

That doesn’t seem to be huge differences, imo. Either way, I still pick around 85 wins for the Twins

No, it's not a big difference at all. No team sees a big difference in the difficulty of their schedules with the new format. It really all balances out.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I'm joining the optimistic homer crowd with 90-95 wins as well.  Although I think the offense may struggle a bit from time to time, having five or six good to excellent starters is a dramatic uptick from having maybe two at the beginning of last year and combined with improved defense will make up for the difference.  Go Twins!

[LA VIkes Fan]

4 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

I picked 80-85. Starting pitching looks much better, but still look like they’ll struggle to score runs. The floor is raised, not the ceiling.

 

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

No, it's not a big difference at all. No team sees a big difference in the difficulty of their schedules with the new format. It really all balances out.

I wanted to be an enthusiastic homer and go 90-95 wins but I just can't quite get there, Perhaps it's my Scottish thrift combining with my aversion to the same emotional pain I've gone through the last two years rising to the surface, but I predict 88-74, second place to a 90 win Cleveland team, coupled with a postseason berth. Floor is higher but the lineup scares me a little. I just don't think we'll score enough runs to get to 90 wins. By the way, I did predict 78-84 last year so maybe I'll get lucky again. 

[Major League Ready]

I don't quite know what to think.  The SP depth bodes well for an above 500 team.  The rest of the team has depth as well but with lots of question marks.  If things come together this could be a 90 win team.  KIrilloff, Gallo, and Larnach all have some serious upside and one of the prospects (Lewis/Martin/Julien) could have an Arraez like impact.

[Nine of twelve]

This poll is an example of why over/under betting lines are usually set higher than the impartial estimate if bets made by fans of a team are expected. They usually tend to be over-optimistic (like me and my 90-94 vote) and consequently tend to bet the over. (Except I don't bet on sports.)

[Vanimal46]

First team to 85 wins is the AL Central Champion. I don’t think that’s the Twins this year. 80-85 wins as it stands right now. If I had to bet the current over/under of 82.5 wins I would bet the under. Sorry.

If I felt comfortable about Buxton playing over 100 games (I don’t) I’d bet over. 

[Parfigliano]

On 2/22/2023 at 11:09 AM, cHawk said:

In the two previous seasons, our Minnesota Twins have fallen dramatically short of our expectations. Sought as a division-winner, possible World Series contender in 2021 and a potential division winner in 2022, the Twins have finished under .500 both seasons, leaving us fans in disappointment, disgust, and disarray.

Our favorite team hopes to break its two-year playoff drought in 2023, and they've demonstrated that by making several additions to the team this past offseason. Offseason additions include SP Pablo Lopez, OF Joey Gallo, and OF Michael A. Taylor. The team was also able to resign SS Carlos Correa. Finally, SP/RP Kenta Maeda, SS Royce Lewis, OF Alex Kirilloff, and others will be healthy and ready to contribute again in 2023. However, they did lose one major piece this past offseason: IF Luis Arraez. Arraez is reigning American League Batting Champion, and the Twins lineup could possibly suffer without him. That being said, they could also receive a boost from Lewis, Kirilloff, and others who will return healthy.

How many games do you see your favorite baseball team winning in 2023 and why?

cHawk's prediction: More than 95 (because I'm an optimistic homer)

3 games into spring training...to early to predict.

[Major League Ready]

I will take the over on 82.5 wins.  They are going to send a quality SP to the mound every game and they have depth provided they are not decimated by injury like they were last year.  

[sampleSizeOfOne]

Optimism.

 

Optimize me!

[a-wan]

I'm a masochist, and ended up choosing 90-94. I think they'll be better than .500 and with a little luck can win those 9 extra games to get to 90.

[Mike Sixel]

87 wins. 

[dxpavelka]

83.  Offense stayed the same.  HOPING for health from Kirilloff & Larnach.  Pitching is deeper but our ace is still pitching at the end of games instead of the beginning.

[Fatbat]

Potentially the best team we have had in decades. Gotta play the games to find out tho. 97 win season. 

[weitz41]

This years team is basically the same one that was on pace for 90+ wins last season, before being torpedoed by injuries. Much better starting pitching, better depth at just about every position, but balanced schedule will cost them a few W's..85-89 wins.

[CRF]

I went with 85-89. Still too many unknowns for my liking. I'd love it to be more than that. We got rid of some of the dead wood, but there's still one or two chunks laying around. Let's play ball and see what happens!

[Puckett34]

anywhere from 75-105.  Can't get a read on this team

[gunnarthor]

I went with 75-79 wins. This is basically the same team as last year and that team was a bad team. The Twins are really hoping on health. If everything breaks right, you can see the Twins winning the central but a lot has to break right. I don't like this pitching staff although I do like some of our young and upcoming hitters. My guess is that we end up trading off some vets at the deadline. I do hope I'm wrong.