Austin Martin: Square Peg, Round Hole

[Brock Beauchamp]

Excellent piece from Gleeman today, talking about how Martin is returning to his roots and no longer trying to elevate the ball with intentionality.

I don't like the undercurrent of what is being said here, that the Twins were trying to homogenize Martin and it simply failed. I'm not furious about it or anything but I think a team that had Luis Arraez on it for years should know better than to do this to a capable spray hitter.

There are different ways to become a capable baseball player and that's okay.

https://theathletic.com/4233049/2023/02/22/twins-prospect-austin-martin-2/

[chpettit19]

I think this is pretty typical stuff. Draft a guy with great bat to ball skills and see if you can get him to elevate the ball more. A Martin with high BA/high OBP/high SLG is better than a Martin with high BA/high OBP/low SLG. They weren't trying to turn him into a low BA/high SLG guy, they were trying to turn him into a high BA/high (or at least medium) SLG guy. They wanted to add power, not swap in power. That's what the minors are for. Clearly didn't work with Martin (to this point), but there's no reason not to try. People just have to remember it was adding power, not swapping in power. Adding abilities is what the minors are for.

[nicksaviking]

I get the intent, doubles and HR are better than singles, and the Twins did ship off Arraez after all, so even if it's not well received, I think we can see their train of thought. I know it's not a popular sentiment as plenty of folks are still hopeful station-to-station baseball will come back, but I'm of the opinion that these types of singles hitters may be fun to watch, but aren't actually as impactful in terms of wins and losses as the guys who crank out XBH but strikeout more than we'd like to see.

But if the Arraez route is Martin's only path to success, by all means, don't change it.

 

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

9 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I think this is pretty typical stuff. Draft a guy with great bat to ball skills and see if you can get him to elevate the ball more. A Martin with high BA/high OBP/high SLG is better than a Martin with high BA/high OBP/low SLG. They weren't trying to turn him into a low BA/high SLG guy, they were trying to turn him into a high BA/high (or at least medium) SLG guy. They wanted to add power, not swap in power. That's what the minors are for. Clearly didn't work with Martin (to this point), but there's no reason not to try. People just have to remember it was adding power, not swapping in power. Adding abilities is what the minors are for.

I do tend to agree with your point, but wouldn't it had been better to not mess with his hitting mechanics and lose a year of development and let the power come naturally later in his career like it always seems to.  I.e. like Brian Dozier.

There are several examples of where this went wrong.  They went the opposite way with Ortiz by asking him to hit the other way and he ended up going with pulling the ball and acquired power and he was proved right.  Same with Buxton when they wanted him to bunt and hit ground balls to utilize his speed.  At some point he said heck with it, I am doing what feels right and he also was proven correct.  Same with Mauer when they wanted him to generate more power.  Some players will never fit into the form the way management wants them to.  If you want that type of player, then draft/trade for them.

[Mike Sixel]

I have no issue with trying to get him to more power. Also, he was hurt some last year. Can't read the article, so maybe he wasn't going all in on "Twins suck because they tried this" that others might....

[tarheeltwinsfan]

42 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I get the intent, doubles and HR are better than singles, and the Twins did ship off Arraez after all so even if it's not well received, I think we can see their train of thought. I know it's not a popular sentiment as plenty of folks are still hopeful station-to-station baseball will come back, but I'm of the opinion that these types of singles hitters may be fun to watch, but aren't actually as impactful in terms of wins and losses as the guys who crank out XBH but strikeout more than we'd like to see.

But if the Arraez route is Martin's only path to success, by all means, don't change it.

 

Arraez was expendable more for his knees and defense and the availability of replacements, rather than for his lack of power at the plate. 

[nicksaviking]

31 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I do tend to agree with your point, but wouldn't it had been better to not mess with his hitting mechanics and lose a year of development and let the power come naturally later in his career like it always seems to.  I.e. like Brian Dozier.

There are several examples of where this went wrong.  They went the opposite way with Ortiz by asking him to hit the other way and he ended up going with pulling the ball and acquired power and he was proved right.  Same with Buxton when they wanted him to bunt and hit ground balls to utilize his speed.  At some point he said heck with it, I am doing what feels right and he also was proven correct.  Same with Mauer when they wanted him to generate more power.  Some players will never fit into the form the way management wants them to.  If you want that type of player, then draft/trade for them.

Tom Brunansky greatly overhauled Brain Dozier's swing, it didn't come naturally. It probably came similarly to what they tried with Martin.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, nicksaviking said:

Tom Brunansky greatly overhauled Brain Dozier's swing, it didn't come naturally. It probably came similarly to what they tried with Martin.

It's likely a myth that big changes come naturally....

[Brock Beauchamp]

32 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I have no issue with trying to get him to more power. Also, he was hurt some last year. Can't read the article, so maybe he wasn't going all in on "Twins suck because they tried this" that others might....

That isn’t the tone of the piece at all, it’s entirely from Martin’s perspective. 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I do tend to agree with your point, but wouldn't it had been better to not mess with his hitting mechanics and lose a year of development and let the power come naturally later in his career like it always seems to.  I.e. like Brian Dozier.

There are several examples of where this went wrong.  They went the opposite way with Ortiz by asking him to hit the other way and he ended up going with pulling the ball and acquired power and he was proved right.  Same with Buxton when they wanted him to bunt and hit ground balls to utilize his speed.  At some point he said heck with it, I am doing what feels right and he also was proven correct.  Same with Mauer when they wanted him to generate more power.  Some players will never fit into the form the way management wants them to.  If you want that type of player, then draft/trade for them.

Did Dozier's power come naturally or did he make a tweak to his swing? "Natural" power development mostly comes from guys simply getting stronger. Doubles that 1 hopped the wall start going over the wall (Manny Machado for example). Guys like Arraez and Martin, who hit line drives without much launch angle, don't develop more power "naturally." It'd require a swing tweak to get that result. You can't hit a HR on a ball that barely clears the infielder's head. And he didn't "lose a year of development." If he/they'd done what you, and many other fans are asking, and made no attempts to add any skills he wouldn't have been developing. All "leaving him alone" would've done was ensure that he'd never add any skills, or develop.

Some hitters won't ever be that type of hitter, you're right. That doesn't mean you don't try. There are 0 major league hitters who never made an attempt to get more out of themselves. 0. Not 1 ever. They all work to improve and gain skills. This idea of just leaving a guy alone is really confusing to me. Because no player has ever just been left alone. This is what minor league baseball is.

[se7799]

He still may add the power in the future as well.  Sometimes things don't click.  2 -3 years down the road a light bulb may go off and it will be because a combination of his experiences both successful and failed.

[Dman]

 

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

I have no issue with trying to get him to more power. Also, he was hurt some last year. Can't read the article, so maybe he wasn't going all in on "Twins suck because they tried this" that others might....

FWIW Martin never once blamed the Twins for anything.  He put the responsibility for the suggested changes on his own shoulders. It sounded like they will still look for ways to improve power but want him to be "who he is" as a hitter right now. He seems to be a reactionary hitter to me and my take on the article was he was thinking too much when selling out for power.  It sounded to me like they will have to find another way for him to use power within that reactionary structure as what they tried just wasn't going to work.  He mentions being a utility player with his approach and being pesky on the bases.  it was a great article and I like his odds to do well this year.

[big dog]

He also mentioned that people have been trying to improve his power ever since he was drafted, so he included the Blue Jays and not just the Twins.

[gunnarthor]

I figure there are a few thoughts/ideas from this.

1) Did the Twins mess with something in a negative way? I'm inclined to think they so b/c a few players have sorta whispered that the Twins want certain things done. But I suspect that most teams do this and the Twins failure to develop Kiriloff, Sabato, Wallner, Larnich, etc into capable middle of the order bats highlights the problem a bit more than it otherwise would have. My guess is that this doesn't have any huge long-term negative effect on Martin but hopefully, the FO starts looking at why some guys are succeeding and others aren't a bit better.

2) Can Martin be a good ML player? I think so. He's sorta my sleeper prospect. I like him more than others. He had a tough year but still walked nearly as much as he struck out. He has a good eye at the plate and I think that type of player is more and more important now, as pitchers have dominated the game for a bit. I also like that he, as DMan points out, put the blame on himself and realized what kind of hitter he is. 

[nicksaviking]

56 minutes ago, Dman said:

 

FWIW Martin never once blamed the Twins for anything.  He put the responsibility for the suggested changes on his own shoulders. It sounded like they will still look for ways to improve power but want him to be "who he is" as a hitter right now. He seems to be a reactionary hitter to me and my take on the article was he was thinking too much when selling out for power.  It sounded to me like they will have to find another way for him to use power within that reactionary structure as what they tried just wasn't going to work.  He mentions being a utility player with his approach and being pesky on the bases.  it was a great article and I like his odds to do well this year.

Thanks for sharing. Martin's no dummy, he and every other prospect know that adding power is the most likely way to add to his paycheck. Glad to hear he was on board with any changes, even if they didn't work. Yet.

[Dman]

1 minute ago, nicksaviking said:

Thanks for sharing. Martin's no dummy, he and every other prospect know that adding power is the most likely way to add to his paycheck. Glad to hear he was on board with any changes, even if they didn't work. Yet.

Have to say I was surprised by his response in the article as it seems to me it would have been very easy to blame the Twins org for the poor year. I think you nailed it for the reason why he didn't blame the Twins.  They do all know that teams want players with hitting skill and power.  Those players move the fastest and make the most money.  I am sure he welcomed what ideas might help him achieve that.

He tried some things they didn't work out and he is back to who he is more traditionally as a hitter. I think with a few tweaks to his current approach he could find more doubles power but I don't know if he ever will hit many HR's.  First things first he needs his swagger\confidence back and then maybe they can look at what more power in that approach might look like.,

[Brad.dahlen]

This sure is a stark difference from the Terry Ryan led Twins. Taking more natural power hitters like Plouffe, Dozier, Kubel, ect and asking them to be a piranha 🤣

[jdgoin]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Did Dozier's power come naturally or did he make a tweak to his swing? "Natural" power development mostly comes from guys simply getting stronger. Doubles that 1 hopped the wall start going over the wall (Manny Machado for example). Guys like Arraez and Martin, who hit line drives without much launch angle, don't develop more power "naturally." It'd require a swing tweak to get that result. You can't hit a HR on a ball that barely clears the infielder's head. And he didn't "lose a year of development." If he/they'd done what you, and many other fans are asking, and made no attempts to add any skills he wouldn't have been developing. All "leaving him alone" would've done was ensure that he'd never add any skills, or develop.

Some hitters won't ever be that type of hitter, you're right. That doesn't mean you don't try. There are 0 major league hitters who never made an attempt to get more out of themselves. 0. Not 1 ever. They all work to improve and gain skills. This idea of just leaving a guy alone is really confusing to me. Because no player has ever just been left alone. This is what minor league baseball is.

Dozier’s power came in two waves. He started to show signs of power potential in 2011 when he played in High-A and AA. I’m not sure he completely changed who he was a hitter though. He was already hitting fly balls to the pull side. Dozier also showed good plate skills, making contact, & walking as much or more than he struck out. 
His next power wave showed up after we signed Josh Willingham. Willingham was an extreme pull hitter and Brian realized the pulling the ball was the easiest way to hit HRs. You can see in his bathed ball profile the jumps in fly ball and Pull% beginning in 2013. 
Dozier was a good hitter in college and the MiL who eventually sold out for power but was still productive. Martin hasn’t had the chance to find his power yet. He was traded in his first season of pro ball. His next season his swing/approach was altered greatly. He may or not find his power as he understands when and how to pull the ball better rather than trying to maximize his power through a different swing.

[jdgoin]

17 minutes ago, Brad.dahlen said:

This sure is a stark difference from the Terry Ryan led Twins. Taking more natural power hitters like Plouffe, Dozier, Kubel, ect and asking them to be a piranha 🤣

Dozier became one of the more productive hitters in the game from 2014 to 2017, posting ISOs well above league average and hitting 23, 28, 42, and 34 HRs in that time. 
Kubel posted ISOs well above league average from 2007 until 2010 (.177, .199, .239, .178 vs league avg of roughly .155) after returning from a knee injury when he shredded his knee the 2004 AFL.

Plouffe posted ISOs of .154, .220, .165, .190, .160 while the league average was around .145. 

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, jdgoin said:

Dozier’s power came in two waves. He started to show signs of power potential in 2011 when he played in High-A and AA. I’m not sure he completely changed who he was a hitter though. He was already hitting fly balls to the pull side. Dozier also showed good plate skills, making contact, & walking as much or more than he struck out. 
His next power wave showed up after we signed Josh Willingham. Willingham was an extreme pull hitter and Brian realized the pulling the ball was the easiest way to hit HRs. You can see in his bathed ball profile the jumps in fly ball and Pull% beginning in 2013. 
Dozier was a good hitter in college and the MiL who eventually sold out for power but was still productive. Martin hasn’t had the chance to find his power yet. He was traded in his first season of pro ball. His next season his swing/approach was altered greatly. He may or not find his power as he understands when and how to pull the ball better rather than trying to maximize his power through a different swing.

His approach was likely changed with Toronto. Or they at least suggested him looking to pull more. Even in the article he speaks to people wanting to get to more power as soon as he got to pro ball. They didn't draft him #5 overall hoping he'd be a slap hitter with speed. They drafted him there because they thought they could get more power out of him. That's why I don't get why people think the Twins did something crazy, or that they shouldn't attempt to tweak players swings after they're drafted. Literally every team does it.

The most noticeable change Martin has made since his days at Vandy came after his injury last year. He changed his stance dramatically when he came back in August. That's another reason I don't understand people complaining about tweaking his swing. The best he's done since coming to the Twins was after he made the biggest noticeable change of his college and pro career. Making tweaks is what every hitter does. Even Trout comes back after the offseason and says things like "I had a hole in my swing at the top of the zone so I worked this winter to close that hole." That's the best hitter on the planet saying he tweaked his swing. That's what baseball is about. Pitchers find your holes and either you close them, or you fail.

[jdgoin]

9 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

His approach was likely changed with Toronto. Or they at least suggested him looking to pull more. Even in the article he speaks to people wanting to get to more power as soon as he got to pro ball. They didn't draft him #5 overall hoping he'd be a slap hitter with speed. They drafted him there because they thought they could get more power out of him. That's why I don't get why people think the Twins did something crazy, or that they shouldn't attempt to tweak players swings after they're drafted. Literally every team does it.

The most noticeable change Martin has made since his days at Vandy came after his injury last year. He changed his stance dramatically when he came back in August. That's another reason I don't understand people complaining about tweaking his swing. The best he's done since coming to the Twins was after he made the biggest noticeable change of his college and pro career. Making tweaks is what every hitter does. Even Trout comes back after the offseason and says things like "I had a hole in my swing at the top of the zone so I worked this winter to close that hole." That's the best hitter on the planet saying he tweaked his swing. That's what baseball is about. Pitchers find your holes and either you close them, or you fail.

Yes, I understand that and I agree with you. My point was Martin had not been able to establish his pro career and figure out who he was as a professional hitter yet before these changes came about. Maybe it was just too soon in his development process. My bet is eventually he figures out how to get to some power.

[Brad.dahlen]

37 minutes ago, jdgoin said:

Dozier became one of the more productive hitters in the game from 2014 to 2017, posting ISOs well above league average and hitting 23, 28, 42, and 34 HRs in that time. 
Kubel posted ISOs well above league average from 2007 until 2010 (.177, .199, .239, .178 vs league avg of roughly .155) after returning from a knee injury when he shredded his knee the 2004 AFL.

Plouffe posted ISOs of .154, .220, .165, .190, .160 while the league average was around .145. 

Right, but Plouffe has spoken at length about the Twins trying to basically make him a slap hitter before he ignored that and said he was going to swing how he wanted. 

[jdgoin]

10 minutes ago, Brad.dahlen said:

Right, but Plouffe has spoken at length about the Twins trying to basically make him a slap hitter before he ignored that and said he was going to swing how he wanted. 

We drafted Plouffe thinking he was going to be a SS who hit for some power. I don’t recall anyone trying to make him a slap hitter. Maybe use the opposite field (Parker wrote an article on that in 2015) but not a slap hitter.

[Doctor Gast]

Thank you Brock for this article. I knew that I'd heard it before. What's important is that he discovered it in time & stayed true to himself. Any modification of his swing needs to come without any change in what's natural to him & what works for him. IMO he'll hit more HRs now than if he'd stick to what he tried to adapt to be more of a slugger.

Martin played only 2 games at SS in college (while he caught 4 games in summer league). But TOR & MN wanted to convert him there. It's easy to convert a SS to another position but another position to SS is a long shot. 

OF is more natural for him, & we could use another RH bat there.

[Trov]

I get why the team tried to change him, but sometimes changing what works just messes everything up.  If something is going well, trying to make better is not always the best path.  Sometimes it does make it better, but not always.  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

5 hours ago, jdgoin said:

We drafted Plouffe thinking he was going to be a SS who hit for some power. I don’t recall anyone trying to make him a slap hitter. Maybe use the opposite field (Parker wrote an article on that in 2015) but not a slap hitter.

Jack, it is so awesome getting your nuggets in the threads

[dxpavelka]

9 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Arraez was expendable more for his knees and defense and the availability of replacements, rather than for his lack of power at the plate. 

If he'd had more power at the plate his knees & defense might have been less expendable.  He won a batting title with a sub .800 OPS.  That's hard to do.

[DocBauer]

I can't read the whole article, but Gleeman hit on some high points in a recent podcast, so I have the jist if it. But I think there a few salient points to address, as well as a couple of misunderstood points that also need to be tackled.

1] Athletically, Martin is a mix of Lewis and Lee. That's to say, when drafted, he was a college hitter VERY comparable to Lee with bat to ball skills. But probably a better overall athlete than Lee, more akin to Lewis. And like Lee, he was seen as perhaps the best "hitter" in the entire draft class, and was drafted a few spots later than expected. He did not play milb in 2020. He was then pushed to AA as a professional rookie. And while he didn't stink, he wasn't exactly great. Toronto did him no favor pushing him that hard, AND, they put him at SS, despite it not being his college position.

We can argue if the Twins should have done something different at the time of the trade, but he wasn't drowning at AA, so should they have demoted him? 

Imagine, for a moment, that Lee wasn't allowed to play in 2022, and then was placed directly at AA in the forthcoming 2023 season. 

2] I'm still not certain why the Jay's decided to place him at SS, which he'd barely played previously, but from what I understand, the Twins basically decided to let him continue playing there to be in the middle of the action, and get as much infield time and experience as he could. They have also stated previously that he could move to the OF tomorrow and be very good there. Now, arguements could be made he should have been moved off SS the moment he was acquired to play his natural 3B/2B spots, or moved directly to the OF,  but they wanted him to spend as much time on the dirt as possible. Hence, they decided to leave him at SS for the time being.

3] While Martin was done no good service missing a year post draft and being tossed in to AA, and is probably a MUCH better hitter than what he's shown thus far as a pro, you CAN'T hit in the .240 range in milb, even with an outstanding eye and OB% ability, and expect that to translate to MLB. Pitchers would eat that kind of hitter alive. The OB would die as ML pitchers would challenge, with no threat available. Chpettit19 has broken this down in great detail in other articles.

The good news is that Martin has the ability to hit the ball HARD, despite poor XB and SLG numbers thus far. The Twins were never trying to turn him in to a 30HR hitter, they were trying to find a way to develop natural talent in a way that would allow Martin to hit a few dingers, more doubles, and just DRIVE the ball so he wasn't just a slap ball hitter, in order to succeed. 

When has ANY organization NOT tried to improve a BA or power from a prospect? If they didn't, how many prospects would EVER reach MLB based on natural ability and "self coaching"?

4] There also needs to be a stop to the Twins trying to "pigeon hole" everyone to be the same type of hitter. Even if that was close to being true in the past, it hasn't been the same since the current FO has been in charge. Someone mentioned Plouffe, and his early coaching. Well, Plouffe has been on record praising the current Twins administration and process for working on individual improvements with their milb players, INSTEAD of the old approach. Martin included, as they've just been trying to develop and maximize his potential, as any organization would. So can we just stop comparisons to a decade ago?

5] Again, hearing the jist of the interview from Gleeman, without reading the article, Martin places no blame on the Twins for trying to improve him. There just appears to be a consensus for him to do what feels natural, take a few things that have been tried, and incorporate those in to his approach and swing. 

I wouldn't doubt that experience, comfort, and a few tweaks won't allow for a better SLG % and more XBH naturally in the future. 

LASTLY: I don't think he's a square peg at all! I think he's a potentially round peg who fits in many different holes. He's going to be a quality OF, who can cover 3B/2B who SHOULD eventually "hit" and keep his OB % high because he can not only hit but barrel up on the ball with natural ability for doubles, some triples, and a few HR, and might just turn out to be a 15-20HR hitter with time.