The Grumpy Ace

[Matt Braun]

Corbin Burnes is down over $700,000 and is not happy. A feisty arbitration case between the ace and his employer, the Milwaukee Brewers, has morphed into a debacle, a spectacle rarely publicly available as the details regarding the hearing tell a strange, piddling tale.

Image courtesy of Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

Hurt feelings over arbitration are not a new phenomena; they are the byproduct of a system that pits the player’s capitalizing desires against a team’s inherent payroll conservatism, revealing the gross reality when neither player nor team owns sole control over one’s salary. It's a messy beast. While team and player can kiss and make up—indeed, bridges don’t always burn—it seems inevitable that grudges, minor and major, can brew resentment. There’s a reason why both parties dread the process.

Burnes’ arbitration case stands out as one of the messiest in recent memory. Milwaukee remained steadfast in their offer, forcing a day in court over a less than $750,000 difference in pay. While the Brewers technically offered a deal to avoid the meeting—a two-year pact that Burnes described as “pretty poor”— their arguments in the case revealed their intent.

“I mean, there’s no denying that the relationship was definitely hurt from what (transpired) over the last couple of weeks,” said the 2021 Cy Young winner following the decision. “There’s really no way to get around that.”

“You work hard for seven years in the organization and five years with the big-league team, and you get in there and basically they value you much different than what you thought you’d contributed to the organization.” 

 

Professionalism will keep Burnes from mutiny or internal sabotage, but his words tinge with hurt feelings and sourness. After all, Milwaukee apparently placed him in the forefront of reasons why they missed the playoffs. 

With two years of team control remaining, and a healthy PECOTA projection placing Milwaukee as the class of a weird NL Central, the Brewers have no reason to deal their starter. Burnes may be pissy, but athletes have been crabby for years; an upset star only matters when you start losing. 

But time can fritter and waste in an offhand way. Two years melt away, losses can pile up, and a team can suddenly find themselves staring at an extensive re-evaluation process as their assets’ years dwindle. It would not be a shock to see Christian Yelich and His Merry Men flail early, perhaps placing Milwaukee—a team always conscious about their stars—in a tough spot. Conversations may need to occur; tough decisions made. Could they afford to hold tight, banking that they reverse course in 2024 with enough vigor to make Burnes’ place on the team worthwhile?

The Twins must have their radar up. Aces—always such a rarity these days—almost never become available, especially for a team that lacks the monetary fortitude to pay for one in free agency. Trades are the great savior. When the market evolves, potentially offering a chance for the team to snag their guy, they must react.

But the timing must be right. The opportunity, perfect. Spring training is not the appropriate venue for such a deal to go down, but if the team holds their own through July, the trade deadline could be the time to strike. 

Other teams are thinking as well, wondering whether they can pull the same maneuver to swipe Burnes for themselves. Every team in baseball can use him; the only thing holding them back is themselves. They’ll battle with wondering if they have the gumption to bypass their desire to avoid risk and embrace owning the services of a unique starter. With an unambiguous stud in Burnes, that question becomes a lot easier. 

For Minnesota, their offer may not touch other teams; their prospect pool is ok, but acquiring Burnes’ services requires the best, not a heap pile of castaways. A combo likely requires Brooks Lee, Marco Raya, and more. It’ll hurt—especially after a plethora of prior trades drained their farm system—but it may be the most crucial step towards the glorious playoff run Derek Falvey and co have worked towards since taking over in 2016. It’s unlikely to happen, but so was signing Carlos Correa, and sometimes you need a little luck, or a grumpy ace, to put your team over the top.

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[Bigfork Twins Guy]

We need to always be open to even trading our best prospects for proven aces.  We do have plenty of MLB ready top non-pitching talent that can be offered.

My only concern is that Burnes may want a mega contract that the Twins are not willing to pay.  I would not want to lose our top talent for a year and a half of Burnes.

[PatPfund]

I'd say "no" to Lee/Raya for Burnes. Not because Burnes isn't good enough, but because the Twins haven't shown they are good enough yet, and Burnes won't likely fuel "a run" because he'll probably bolt via Free Agency.

It's spring, and people are gaga with hope, but this team finished 14 games back in a weak division last year, two presumed starters (Kepler and Gallo) are coming off horrible years, the hoped-for middle order bats at the corners (Miranda and Kirilloff) have maybe a combined season of experience, and several SPs have both injury-recovery questions, and are on expiring contracts.

As you say, mid-season is a better assessment time, but getting Burnes there would probably mean outbidding every playoff contender in baseball. I'd rather keep building this year, maybe win the division and a playoff game, and come back even better next year (very possibly with Lee in the lineup).

[Cory Engelhardt]

See, I'm thinking a deal for Burnes starts bigger than Raya/Lee. I have worries that the ask would start with Miranda.

In the end, if you can get a Burnes to front your rotation, you almost have to right? But if he is a Twin, the sting of who goes out will only hurt if Burnes doesn't perform like an ace here.

If Burnes does perform like an ace, then whatever you traded away will have been worth it.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

The Brewer/Burnes arbitration has brewed into a bruhaha with a brooding, feuding pitcher possibly bidding adieu to you know who. 

[jimbo92107]

PatPfund said it: This team has not yet demonstrated that it is just one key player from a deep playoff run. In fact, last season's late collapse looked like something from a perennial bottom-dweller, not a borderline playoff threat. 

For that and another reason, Twins should hang onto all their hitting prospects, especially including Lee. If he performs at an extremely high level, enough to force his way to the bigs, then he's a star on this team for a decade, versus a hired gun for one or two years. 

Money is the other reason, and it's the main motivator in a Burnes deal. He feels shortchanged by the Brewers, so he'll be looking for a monster payday. That means Yankees and Dodgers kind of loot, in the hundreds of millions of dollars in gold-pressed Latinum. Ferengi joke. 

Nope, the Twins are stuck with their odd ducks, their TJ survivors, their broken-jaw bar fighters, and the usual assortment of wannabes that can't quite throw strikes on 3 and 2 counts. Here we are hoping that Emilio Pagan will save the bullpen. AGAIN. 

[nicksaviking]

I think the reason the Brewers wouldn't offer Burns more is the same reason why they won't trade him.

The front office is desperately trying to make one more run at a championship before their players hit free agency, but have already been told by ownership that there's no more money to spend.

[Mike Sixel]

24 minutes ago, jimbo92107 said:

PatPfund said it: This team has not yet demonstrated that it is just one key player from a deep playoff run. In fact, last season's late collapse looked like something from a perennial bottom-dweller, not a borderline playoff threat. 

For that and another reason, Twins should hang onto all their hitting prospects, especially including Lee. If he performs at an extremely high level, enough to force his way to the bigs, then he's a star on this team for a decade, versus a hired gun for one or two years. 

Money is the other reason, and it's the main motivator in a Burnes deal. He feels shortchanged by the Brewers, so he'll be looking for a monster payday. That means Yankees and Dodgers kind of loot, in the hundreds of millions of dollars in gold-pressed Latinum. Ferengi joke. 

Nope, the Twins are stuck with their odd ducks, their TJ survivors, their broken-jaw bar fighters, and the usual assortment of wannabes that can't quite throw strikes on 3 and 2 counts. Here we are hoping that Emilio Pagan will save the bullpen. AGAIN. 

I have no idea where that last paragraph comes from at all, but the Ferengi joke is good.

[Parfigliano]

23 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I think the reason the Brewers wouldn't offer Burns more is the same reason why they won't trade him.

The front office is desperately trying to make one more run at a championship before their players hit free agency, but have already been told by ownership that there's no more money to spend.

Who knows what money there is to spend in the era of broadcaster bankruptcy.

[Shaitan]

Arbitration is known for this. He either didn't listen to his agent or has a bad one.

If he's so offended by this, what will set him off next time?

I wouldn't waste the resources.

[Jshubitz]

I'd rather we see how this season goes with our deep rotation depth. Then next year when 3 of our starter are available for free agency we let one (or maybe 2) go and we go out and sign aaron nola, a true ace which we obviously need.

[Trov]

So everyone is just agreeing Burns is an ace, but if you look at his numbers last year, and specifically his second half numbers maybe, just maybe his luster is wearing off.  I am not saying I would pass on him, but I think some may be overvaluing him a little.  

He would not be the first ace that burns out after age 27 season.  I will agree Burns had a very good 2020, and a crazy good 2021.  However, last year his walks were back up from his 2021 season, his k/9 were down to career low, to 10.8.  His HR were up a ton, giving up 23 compared to the 7 the year before.  His ERA was close to his FIP right around 3.00, much higher than the 2021 season.  If you look at the second half it was worse than his first half.  Maybe it was injury, maybe it was fatigue as he pitched more games and innings than any season prior.

However, take a look at Tim Lincecum, both started at age 23, both had ace type numbers over their first 5 seasons.  Burns 2021 was better than anything Lincecum did, but Lincecum overall numbers over those years where about the same, if not better.  Burns had more K/9 and less walks per 9 We do need to keep in mind Burns did not start full time until 2020, and really 2021 where he tore it up.  

Then year 28 and it all fell apart for Lincecum.  I am not saying Burns will fall apart, but other than a great 2021 and a very good 2020(9 starts only) are we really saying this guy is a top ace?  I mean in 5 seasons he has 74 starts, and if you remove the 2021 season his numbers are not ace like.  They are very good, but let me point you to Phil Hughes 2014 season.  It was not quite Burns 2021, but not a ton off overall.  

Hughes threw 209 innings, had a FIP of 2.65 with a much lower K rate of only 8.0, but much better walk to k rate of 11.63.  Hughes never came close to those numbers any other season.  Again, not saying they are the same. 

My point is, we have 1.5 very good to great seasons out of 5.  1 good season where he faded down stretch.  You want your ace to pick it up on second half in in playoffs.  He did fine in his 1 playoff start in 2021, going 6 allowing 0 but walking 3 with 6 strikeouts.  Maybe Burns is not 2021 guy, but closer to 2022 guy, who is good, but are you willing to give up the farm for?  

Really Pablo Lopez, was not much worse overall last year compared to Burns.  Some did not want to give up Arraez straight up for Lopez, but is willing to give up everything for Burns.  

[RickOShea]

Too much value placed on pitchers in MLB.  They're all one ulnar nerve away from being a flop.

[mikelink45]

How can I get excited about a player who makes the line of money he has and chooses to have hurt feelings instead of going out and proving the team wrong and setting himself up for the next big contract. Sorry but just kind of tantrum just simply well with me

[specialiststeve]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

How can I get excited about a player who makes the line of money he has and chooses to have hurt feelings instead of going out and proving the team wrong and setting himself up for the next big contract. Sorry but just kind of tantrum just simply well with me

So... if you are worth 30 million on the market or more... and they go to arbitration over 700 K while making 10 million and are underpaid by nearly 20 million... 

So, if you at your job is worth 30 dollars an hour and they offer you 10 dollar and hour but would settle for 11 dollars an our and they go to court (arbitrator) to get that dollar... ridiculous and REALLY dumb of the Brewers. 

[specialiststeve]

I would trade Lee, Raya and others in a heartbeat for Burnes IF he would sign an extension for say 4 years. Otherwise just can't go there. 

[JD-TWINS]

1st - Can’t move Lewis or Lee!

Dreaming a bit here:

If we get to the break and Kirilof is healthy, and we’re in the mix, Miranda may be worth moving for an Ace? Along with Ober - prospect Martin.

Maybe Walner - Ober - Martin……Ober under control & takes rotation spot from the jump…..Walner & Martin under control for years. Julien could be a guy in the mix? Maybe Salas, depending upon what Milwaukee is looking for in everyday guys. Maybe Polanco?

(Polanco - Ober - Walner for Burns)

We’ll have $$$$ to sign Burns with Gallo/Kepler/Gray/Mahle/Polanco ($11M - $9M - $13M - $10M - $12M) gone in ‘24!! Burns gets $28M & López gets $19M. Burns for 3 years …….Lopez extended 2 additional years. Could be exciting!

2024 Potential Staff:

Burns/Ryan/Lopez/Varland/Paddack

Lopez - Duran - Jax - Balazovic - Moran - SWR - Megill - Alcala

Maeda - if average in 2023, is worth extending at $8 - $11M a year with an ERA under 4.00.

If Thielbar holds up, keep bringing him back!!

Have some other arms left for relief depth & starter depth……..

Buxton - Larnach - Gordon - Rodríguez - Taylor

Correa - Miranda - Lewis - Lee - Kirilof - Farmer

Vazquez - Jeffers

Mix of experienced depth & youth - really good staff……….affordable!!!!

2nd round of playoffs?!?!!

[tony&rodney]

Burnes and others are worth keeping an eye open but at this time the Twins have to see how their roster works. Let's check back around the All Star Game.

[TopGunn#22]

It's nice to dream, but I've said this before, Burnes will be a Dodger, Met or Yankee.  As much as the Twins have accomplished this offseason  (I mean who REALLY thought we'd end up with Correa)?  If the Brewers are put into a position that they must deal Burnes, I would expect one of the aforementioned teams to put a better trade package together and then to sign Burnes to an incredibly heavy contract.  I have written about a couple trades for Woodruff, but as good as he is, he's not in the same class as Burnes.  Honestly, I wish Burnes could stay a Brewer but those days ended with the advent of free agency.  

[weitz41]

I'd rather not part with the prospect and mlb players we'd have to give up getting Burns.

Baseball trade value puts it in the range of Ryan, Raya and 1 of Lee or Lewis range. They're usually pretty close on trades. That IMO is way too much to part with for two seasons of Burns. Sure, extend him and then it's probably worth it. I have my doubts that would happen.

[miracleb]

I think we had this same conversation about Buxton 3-4 years ago regarding service time(?)  He was bitter because he didn't get called back up (or am I mis-remembering?)  Bottom line......he signed an extension with the Twins.  Same will happen here.

[Otaknam]

A Burnes trade would only make sense if he is the missing piece to a serious WS run. But right now the rotation has solid veterans, with young and capable arms waiting for their chance. I’d roll with that right now and see how the season goes.