Starting pitchers 2023 - who will lead the Twins?

[Squirrel]

Hearing bits and blurbs from ST, I’m excited about our starting pitching. Maybe I’m a bit too excited but it’s a strong group, imo. And maybe I’m just thinking that because who is no longer here. But hearing that Ryan tweaked his slider and it’s looking good, Gray is strong. Mahle seems to have figured out his shoulder. Maeda has no restrictions. And new acquisition with Lopez. And we can’t discount Ober. While some say we need an ace and won’t win without one, something I don’t necessarily disagree with. But, I don’t think we need that one pitcher who is a career ace. We just need one or two of our pitchers to have a really great year, maybe even an ace-like season. I think the potential is there with this group. So, early yet, but intentionally so … and if I remember at the end of the season to check this poll, I will … who do you think will be the Twins best starting pitcher this coming season?

 

[CRF]

I'm going with Ryan. I don't think he's going to have any injury issues, and I'd expect him to build on his first full year and get better. I'm looking forward to seeing his slider improvement too. As a whole, I'm very optimistic about our overall starting pitching this season. 

[chpettit19]

I voted for Mahle. Was great to hear he was at Driveline working on his slider (like Ryan), and I think getting out of Cincinnati is going to be great for him. But I'm also optimistic about the group as a whole, and am excited to see how they feed off each other game after game with the standard for performance being raised.

[nicksaviking]

If Mahle is healthy, his numbers when he doesn't pitch in Cincinnati have me excited.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Squirrel said:

Hearing bits and blurbs from ST, I’m excited about our starting pitching. Maybe I’m a bit too excited but it’s a strong group, imo. And maybe I’m just thinking that because who is no longer here. But hearing that Ryan tweaked his slider and it’s looking good, Gray is strong. Mahle seems to have figured out his shoulder. Maeda has no restrictions. And new acquisition with Lopez. And we can’t discount Ober. While some say we need an ace and won’t win without one, something I don’t necessarily disagree with. But, I don’t think we need that one pitcher who is a career ace. We just need one or two of our pitchers to have a really great year, maybe even an ace-like season. I think the potential is there with this group. So, early yet, but intentionally so … and if I remember at the end of the season to check this poll, I will … who do you think will be the Twins best starting pitcher this coming season?

 

I voted Mahle because not pitching in the Cincinnati band box.

[Squirrel]

49 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I voted for Mahle. Was great to hear he was at Driveline working on his slider (like Ryan), and I think getting out of Cincinnati is going to be great for him. But I'm also optimistic about the group as a whole, and am excited to see how they feed off each other game after game with the standard for performance being raised.

I, too, cast my vote for Mahle. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I voted for Mahle. Was great to hear he was at Driveline working on his slider (like Ryan), and I think getting out of Cincinnati is going to be great for him. But I'm also optimistic about the group as a whole, and am excited to see how they feed off each other game after game with the standard for performance being raised.

If I was confident he'd be healthy, this would be my pick. I went with Ryan because I want to keep reminding people he's part of the pipeline.....what can I say? I'm not perfect.

[IndianaTwin]

I went with Lopez, mainly to see what others said, but my preferred answer is "All of the above." I'm pretty excited about the rotation as well. 

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

If I was confident he'd be healthy, this would be my pick. I went with Ryan because I want to keep reminding people he's part of the pipeline.....what can I say? I'm not perfect.

Him being able to go to driveline and do the work on his slider makes me confident he's healthy. If he wasn't right he wouldn't have gone out and worked on his pitches this offseason. He sounds like he's good to go to me.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, IndianaTwin said:

I went with Lopez, mainly to see what others said, but my preferred answer is "All of the above." I'm pretty excited about the rotation as well. 

The floor is so high, best depth I can recall ever for a Twins' staff. And, the ceiling isn't low, just unlikely to be hit by all of them at once. 

[IndianaTwin]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

The floor is so high, best depth I can recall ever for a Twins' staff. And, the ceiling isn't low, just unlikely to be hit by all of them at once. 

Exactly.

I see this as a team with a great floor and with a bunch of guys who "can pitch like a top-notch starter* for a period of time." With more potential in the wings.**

*Note that, as a way of trying to keep this thread from getting highjacked, I didn't use the A_e word.
**"Wings" used as a way of trying to avoid using the P_p_l_n_ word. 

 

 

[Squirrel]

5 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

Exactly.

I see this as a team with a great floor and with a bunch of guys who "can pitch like a top-notch starter* for a period of time." With more potential in the wings.**

*Note that, as a way of trying to keep this thread from getting highjacked, I didn't use the A_e word.
**"Wings" used as a way of trying to avoid using the P_p_l_n_ word. 

 

 

Lol, it’s okay … I used the a_c word in the op.

[Craig Arko]

I hear Rally Monkey has a heckuva changeup.

[wsnydes]

I voted Gray, but I'm hoping it's Ryan.  And I'm hoping it's Ryan because he's dominant, not because the rest of the rotation is hurt or pitching poorly.

[sun]

I went with Maeda because I think that he has the highest ceiling. He has the experience & track record & is pitching to prove that he's able to make a complete comeback. He's a dedicated pro that worked hard to recover, and I think that his stuff will remain elite enough to win. He also had an extra long recovery time and a better surgical procedure. I'll be surprised if he doesn't regain all of his form by the end of the season if not from the start. He's pitching for all of his Japanese fans too.  Don't count him out, he has tons of pitching talent. 

[Major League Ready]

It's great that 4 different guys have a shot at being our best SP but it would be even better if we had those 4 guys and a guy we expected would be better than all of them.

[Cory Engelhardt]

My vote is Mahle, with Lopez at 1a for this rotation. Then Ryan. Then Gray and Maeda. All are solid though, and all are (in my opinion) at least mid-rotation level. 

I view Mahle and Lopez both as good #2 starters. 

[Fatbat]

I picked Mahle in the hopes that his shoulder issue is over with. I agree that the floor is high if everyone is healthy. Its a deeeeeep rotation with a couple young kids coming soon. With some positive progression of everyone feeding off each other’s’ success, we could have a top 5 rotation in 2023. That should translate into a dozen more wins than the so called experts are predicting. 

[JD-TWINS]

8 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

If Mahle is healthy, his numbers when he doesn't pitch in Cincinnati have me excited.

I live in Cincinnati……that’s all I heard last summer out of the Minnesota nice fans/writers, “wait til Mahle gets out of that ballpark….” Pretty sure he gave up 3 taters in his first start in Minneapolis!!

He gets behind trying to strike out everyone - then he walks a guy or two. After that - center cut & gone. Tough to watch because if he pitched to contact more when ahead in counts he’d throw less pitches & deeper into games!!

He’s got talent - not that bright.

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, sun said:

I went with Maeda because I think that he has the highest ceiling. He has the experience & track record & is pitching to prove that he's able to make a complete comeback. He's a dedicated pro, worked out in Minny through recovery, and I think that his stuff will remain elite enough to win. He also had an extra long recovery time and a better surgical procedure. I'll be surprised if he doesn't regain all of his form by the end of the season if not from the start. He's pitching for all of his Japanese fans too.  Don't count him out, he has tons of pitching talent. 

Rosie view of Maeda’s stuff. Good guy but……I like him but he has to grind to get guys out. He may throw 90-91 so control is a big deal. His change/screwball is unique and he does have good movement. Will he be able to control his off speed well enough is the question? 19 months off from competition. Hope you’re right - Fingers crossed on this guy!!

[JD-TWINS]

Joe Ryan has a great demeanor on the field but I think he may want to win more than anyone. Great news he’s worked on 2 new pitches over off season & that the coaching staff is impressed with them.

Young, strong, will battle & new improved slider along with splitter……..he’s my guy for best year.

Lopez - Gray - Mahle could all be in the mix though!!

[bird]

8 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I voted for Mahle. Was great to hear he was at Driveline working on his slider (like Ryan), and I think getting out of Cincinnati is going to be great for him. But I'm also optimistic about the group as a whole, and am excited to see how they feed off each other game after game with the standard for performance being raised.

Pretty much exactly how I see it. I mean, think about what we've heard so far. Granted, some of it fits into the standard "best condition" category.  Gray, Lopez, and maybe even Maeda fit in that category. Mahle, (my pick as well), and Ryan both appear to be sporting improved pitches/skills. It's spring training. Therefore I choose to believe that all five of them reported in the absolute best conditions of their lives.

 

[Squirrel]

What I find interesting about this poll so far is two things … 1) every pitcher has votes; 2) there are no ‘run away’ choices with two pitchers having 13, one 12 and another 9. This goes back to (and I think supports) my original comment … that, imo, I think we have a strong group of starters, and that any one of them has the potential to turn in a great year, and I hope that they all do, and that one of them turns in an ace-like year.

[tony&rodney]

16 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

It's great that 4 different guys have a shot at being our best SP but it would be even better if we had those 4 guys and a guy we expected would be better than all of them.

Gray, Mahle, Ryan, and Maeda are the four guys I'm hoping have career years. I expect that Pablo Lopez will be better than those four pitchers. 

[Twodogs]

I voted for Lopez.  I mean if you are going to lead a rotation with a best season of the 5, then I think I'm looking for the guy who is going to actually start 32 - 33 times and average 6 - 7 innings per start.  Lopez showed last season that he can do that.  No one else in the rotation showed that last year.  Mahle has thrown 180 innings in the past and Gray threw over 200 innings before but that was in 2015.  Ryan only threw 147 innings last year.  So those other guys may have better peripherals but at this point Lopez has shown he can get it done over the course of a season.  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I voted for Lopez. Last year he would have led the starters in FWAR, IP, WPA and second in FIP.

Mahle I believe will be a close second. He was 3rd of the starters in FWAR and .02 WPA behind Ryan for second place and he was injured a huge chunk of the season. Add in the improved secondary offering…. Man, oh man…

[Twodogs]

On 2/22/2023 at 2:40 PM, Fatbat said:

I picked Mahle in the hopes that his shoulder issue is over with. I agree that the floor is high if everyone is healthy. Its a deeeeeep rotation with a couple young kids coming soon. With some positive progression of everyone feeding off each other’s’ success, we could have a top 5 rotation in 2023. That should translate into a dozen more wins than the so called experts are predicting. 

I hope everything goes right for this rotation.  But I'd say the ceiling is high and they could be great, but the floor of any rotation with injuries and whatnot is almost always really low.  Because when things go wrong with rotations they tend to go really wrong. 

If they all have career years I feel the twins would be world series contenders.  But I remember in 2015 the Twins had a rotation of Nolasco, Hughes, Santana, Gibson, and Pelfrey/Milone.  Now that year the Twins won 83 games, but could you imagine if all 6 of those guys had career years that season.  They'd have probably won 100 games.  Nolasco delt with injuries, I think Santana had a suspension for PEDs, I think Hughes started to deal with injuries, and that quickly the floor got pretty low.  

 

So let's all pray that this group of starters all stay healthy and have close to career years.  

[Rosterman]

We have a solid rotation that could all pitch with ERAs less than 4.00 and easily get 12-15 wins each. All up to the bats to keep us in the game, and for the bullpen to hold. With 8 strong relief arms, the Twins look set.

I am thinking of how the Twins bullpen can handle extra inning situations with that danged runner on second. Seemed to be an issue last year.

Ober, Varland, Woods Richardson in the wings. The Twins can easily let two of the three free agents walk. Who should they extend, and when should they start talking? I would like to keep Sonny Gray around as the veteran arm for 2-3 more seasons, if applicable, just to lessen the price we paid of Chase Petty.

[DocBauer]

Carol, first of all, this should be a front page post. :)

Secondly, I wouldn't be me if I didn't do a breakdown, LOL. I absolutely LOVE the potential of this rotation, despite the absence of the proverbial ACE, of which there are so very few.

I absolutely love Gray for his stuff, and his career. Everyone talks about what a great leader Correa is. And he IS. But I didn't know how great a leader Gray was until he became a Twin. He "forced" all pitchers to watch bullpen warm ups pre-game to see better how to approach the competition, how to prepare, and to be ready next turn. And, obviously, this was to build camaraderie. The guy is a leader. He's seldom been a bastion of health and huge IP, but they guy is really, really good when healthy. Pitches like a #1 most days, but can't select him as "leading the rotation" in 2023 other than being a leader. But if healthy, he's at the top of the list.

Ryan has everything going for him. He's got the attitude and FB and determination. He's not my #1 right now only based on inexperience. He harnesses is slider and change just a little more, watch out.

If Lopez can be 100% for a full season, LOOK OUT. I'm so tempted to make him my #1, but can't do so just yet.

I don't expect Maeda to be as good as he was in 2020. But I actually expect him to be close to what he was then, and ST 2021, and what he was with the Dodgers. He's throwing well, and reports are the control has been surprisingly good even late in 2022. I think he could make a difference, but I don't expect him to lead the rotation. 

Mahle is my choice. His "tired arm" seems to be explained due to the weird offseason last year. He was more than healthy enough to go to Driveline to work on his slider, with no restrictions. He's been solid and better than that outside of pitching in the band box of Cincinnati. I believe he will be the #1 SP for the Twins in 2023. And if I'm right, I hope he's an extension candidate. He's at the perfect place with age and experience to become a true #1.

Lopez is a very, very close candidate. He's coming off the best year of his career, but faded somewhat the second half. Is he also an extension candidate?

I just have to put Ryan number 3 only due to ML experience and wanting to see the improvement we hope and expect.

How can I put Gray #4? When he's healthy, he's about as good as anyone. But I just have to look at age and injury history and put him at #4 knowing he might be might still be the best arm on the mound any given day.

So I guess that leaves Maeda as #5. Do any of us really believe a fully healthy Maeda is a #5 SP? Well, he might be with this potential rotation.

And please, don't anyone fall asleep on a healthy Ober. He might be as good as at least a couple of the other penciled in starters.

[ashbury]

On 2/22/2023 at 4:13 PM, JD-TWINS said:

I live in Cincinnati……that’s all I heard last summer out of the Minnesota nice fans/writers, “wait til Mahle gets out of that ballpark….” Pretty sure he gave up 3 taters in his first start in Minneapolis!!

He gets behind trying to strike out everyone - then he walks a guy or two. After that - center cut & gone. Tough to watch because if he pitched to contact more when ahead in counts he’d throw less pitches & deeper into games!!

He’s got talent - not that bright.

He did give up 3 HR in that first game in a Twins uni.  Went on to complete 6 innings and got the credit for the win.  That was against a playoff-bound team, incidentally - his next game against a lesser foe, he threw 6 shutout innings.   And then the ailment resurfaced.

His short time with our team hasn't given me reason to think there's anything wrong between the ears.  Inside the shoulder, maybe.