Is Now the Right Time for a Royce Lewis Extension?

[Nick Nelson]

The former No. 1 overall draft pick faces an uncertain road ahead coming off back-to-back major knee injuries. 

The Twins are in position to alleviate that uncertainty with the security of a long-term deal. Is there a framework that makes sense for both sides?

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker, USA Today Sports

 

Last week at The Athletic, Dan Hayes wrote a great story about Chris Paddack and why the right-hander was open to a three-year contract extension with the Twins as he rehabs from Tommy John surgery. On the surface, the $12.5 million pact seems immensely team-friendly, locking him down at $2.5 million in 2024 -- when he will ostensibly be back to full health -- and buying out his first free agent year for a mere $7.5 million.

If Paddack, who recently turned 27, can return to pitching anywhere near the level he was at prior to surgery, he'll be an incredible bargain and an ultra-valuable asset for the rotation in 2024/25. But that can't be safely assumed coming off a second TJ surgery, and he gets it.

“I’m always kind of gambling on myself,” he told Hayes. “If this was my first one, maybe we’re talking just a one- or two-year deal with risk and gambling on myself going into my contract year. But this is something I couldn’t pass up, man. It’s a win-win for me."

Which brings us to Royce Lewis, who is facing his own version of Paddack's journey, and happens to have the same agent (Scott Boras).

Lewis is rehabbing from a second consecutive tear of the same right ACL. His odds of returning to the field as an impact player are probably much higher than Paddack's, given the murky history of double-TJ pitchers, but the risks of going through this ordeal cannot be downplayed, especially for a player whose game is based on springy athleticism.  

Of course, the Twins' No. 2 prospect is in a very different situation career-wise compared to Paddack. By virtue of MLB's service system, Minnesota controls Lewis' rights for the next six years, including at a league-minimum salary for the next three. 

Many teams have exercised their leverage in this position to work out long-term contracts with highly touted young players who've barely played in the majors, if at all. (The Rays have become famous for it and the Braves just did it with Michael Harris II.)

In the case of Harris, Atlanta locked down the 21-year-old outfielder for eight years and $72 million last August, midway through a Rookie of the Year debut. The contract buys out his first two free agency years with a pair of team options after that. Here's how it shakes out: 

• 2023: $5 million
• 2024: $5 million
• 2025: $8 million
• 2026: $8 million
• 2027: $9 million
• 2028: $10 million
• 2029: $10 million
• 2030: $12 million
• 2031: $15 million club option ($5 million buyout)
• 2032: $20 million club option ($5 million buyout)

The big draw for Harris in this arrangement, aside from the ultimate security of guaranteeing himself $72 million, is the elevation of his income in the next few years. Rather than earning the league minimum each year in 2023-25, he'll make $18 million total over those campaigns. 

Compared to Harris, Lewis obviously has a lot less bargaining power at the moment. He's three years older. He briefly debuted in the majors and looked good, but didn't make nearly so emphatic and convincing a statement as Harris. And of course, there's the knee injuries.

Still, Harris contract might provide a helpful framework for thinking about a Lewis extension that makes sense for both sides: increased pre-arb paydays, as part of a total sum of guaranteed money that assures generational wealth, in return for cost-controlled years of arbitration and free agency, plus the flexibility of some team options at the back end.

The proposal below amounts to roughly a seven-year, $34 million contract, buying out one year of free agency with an additional two team options on the back end (not entirely dissimilar from the extensions given to Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco, albeit further along in their development):

• 2023: $1M
• 2024: $3M
• 2025: $3M
• 2026: $5M
• 2027: $5M
• 2028: $7M
• 2029: $10M
• 2030: $12M team option ($1M buyout)
• 2031: $15M team option ($1M buyout)

For the Twins, the incentive here is obvious -- adding a star-caliber talent in Lewis to the entrenched long-term core alongside Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa -- with cost certainty that fits nicely alongside their progressive salary allocations. (Notably, by the time Lewis reaches even a $10 million salary in this framework, Correa would already be into his option years with declining salaries.)

The team downside is nominal: if Lewis completely fails to make it back and pan out as an effective MLB player, the Twins would be on the hook for a total sum of money slightly below Correa's 2023 salary. 

For Lewis, the incentive also should be obvious, but it might not be quite enough. Very possibly, he's inclined to bet on himself and aim for bigger paydays, especially if he's feeling really good at this stage of his recovery. No one would begrudge him. 

At the same time, should anyone be surprised if he and Boras are open to this kind of extension? Not only has Lewis seen his outlook become shrouded in doubt by two straight freak injuries to the same knee, but at a higher level, he's experienced the way this game can cruelly take things away from you, in ways that are completely out of your control. For what it's worth, he also seems to genuinely enjoy being a part of this organization, which could factor as well.

If Lewis is looking for long-term security, the Twins should be welcoming that conversation with open arms. Even if the terms above are not agreeable, there's a lot of room for flexibility to still find a framework that makes a ton of sense for both sides.

 

View full article

[Vanimal46]

If Lewis is indeed a star in the making that I’ve been reading on this site for 6 years, this contract proposal is selling himself extremely short of his earning potential. I don’t see why he would entertain this right now. 

[rwilfong86]

With his injury history if they can buy low I would be in favor.

[heresthething]

The Paddack extension I can see taking the risk because it's pitching.  While Royce has shown flashes at the MLB level I think we need to see if his knees can hold up.  Doesn't seem like there is any rush to get it done this year.

[twinstalker]

Other than Boras clients never doing these things, this would be a relevant topic.  I've often thought over the past years (given Kirilloff and Lewis) that it will be Boras non-extensions that will be the breakup of Falvine and Boras.

This front office sold its soul to Boras, and they will find out why this is a bad thing, though apparently the weirdest scenario ever could play out (see Correa).

[sweetmusicviola16]

If Lewis was to take this deal, then he's not a competitor. imo if he took this then he's likely to have just a so so career. Just those last 3 years alone he'd be losing 60mil. If he's as good as everyone, including himself thinks he is.

[Heistyman]

If management is confident in the ACL rehab and recovery I think it should be pursued.  If you want to be a place where players want to go, then treating athletes you respect with respect goes along way.  I know it is a business, but the team should know the nitty gritty about their stars or potential stars.  Reaching out to a player that is going through a tough time and saying we got you, we trust you and let's help your cash flow and buyout those pesky arbitration years.  

[Doctor Gast]

The contract is very team friendly, Nick. I usually don't like these kind of early extension but in Lewis's case & this contract to lock up Lewis for some extra control. He loves it here, we love him,  I'm all for it.

I can also see why the FO extended Paddack. Last year was lost, this year will be a wash. next year will be finding himself, his control, what he can & can't do. If everything is set to go in '25 should be his best year to prove himself before FA and FO would salvage at least one year.

[sweetmusicviola16]

Not sure if signing Solano has anything to do with where Lewis is at right now, but maybe he isn't as far along as was hoped for.

[chpettit19]

If the Twins could get him to sign that deal they should do it immediately. If Royce is offered that deal he should turn it down immediately. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

3 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

The contract is very team friendly, Nick. I usually don't like these kind of early extension but in Lewis's case & this contract to lock up Lewis for some extra control. I'm all for it.

I can also see why the FO extended Paddack. Last year was lost, this year will be a wash. next year will be finding himself, his control, what he can & can't do. If everything is set to go in '25 should be his best year to prove himself and FO would salvage at least one year.

I agree. But I just don't see Lewis biting on this deal. Unless he really didn't feel good about himself at this point. 

[Mike Sixel]

Hasn't he blown out his knee multiple times, including walking out his door? Also, that's not enough money to buy him out, IMO. If he thinks there is any chance he's healthy, no way he takes that deal. He already has a big signing bonus.....

I can't see either side doing this deal.

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

The contract is very team friendly, Nick. I usually don't like these kind of early extension but in Lewis's case & this contract to lock up Lewis for some extra control. He loves it here, we love him,  I'm all for it.

I can also see why the FO extended Paddack. Last year was lost, this year will be a wash. next year will be finding himself, his control, what he can & can't do. If everything is set to go in '25 should be his best year to prove himself and FO would salvage at least one year.

Ya, there is no comparison between this deal and Paddock's deal, imo. Neither in terms of risk or reward.

[Rosterman]

Well, he got a pretty full season of service time last year. Have to see how he does out-of-the-gate in St. Paul, and what position they wish to play him. 

The Twins will be evaluating him and Martin closely now - which one to keep in the long term. And also where does Lee fit into the bigger picture going forth.

Hopefully Lewis will get going by June 1 at St. Paul.

 

[Doctor Gast]

22 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

I agree. But I just don't see Lewis biting on this deal. Unless he really didn't feel good about himself at this point. 

Buxton agreed to a very friendly long term extension. Contrary to the hype, he loved it here. that's why he signed it.

I can see Lewis turning it down & I'm pretty sure he will because this contract is similar to the Kepler & Polanco (international signings that IMO they took advantage of that) contracts but Lewis isn't an international and Boras is his agent. If does sign it's because he really really likes it here. not because he doubts himself. And I'd be very very happy

[PatPfund]

It is a worthy idea, but my guess is that Royce would rather play the season betting on himself, then maybe look into something similar afterward (but if his bet comes in, bigger annual numbers, and maybe no team options at the end, or the proverbial "mutual option" that never gets exercised).

[Vanimal46]

47 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

If the Twins could get him to sign that deal they should do it immediately. If Royce is offered that deal he should turn it down immediately. 

Pretty much. The terms Nick proposed would require a boat load of incentives. Otherwise he’s losing a ton of future compensation. 

[sorney]

I can understand the Twins reasoning behind it...but guessing no way Lewis would be open to it.  He literally is at his lowest value. Perhaps revisiting next year makes sense for him.  

[Nick Nelson]

I think the extent to which this proposed deal is team-friendly is being a little overblown. I know you hear "7 years, $34 million" for a player of Lewis' caliber and it seems egregious but in terms of baseball economics it's (sadly) really not.

As things stand, Lewis will make like $2 million over the next three seasons as a pre-arb player. In the extension scenario, he's making $7 million during that span. 

The proposal has him making $17 million during this 3 arbitration seasons. If things go really well for him, he could make more than that? Hardly a lock. 

What it comes down to is the first year free agency buyout ($10M) and those two team options. I'm open to the idea of reworking the salaries or options at the back end, but the Twins are taking a huge leap of faith by guaranteeing $25M over the first 6 years given his current situation so they'd need to recoup some value potential there for it to make sense.

Basically I tried to start with the Michael Harris framework and then scale down appropriately, from a healthy 21-year-old Rookie of the Year and MVP contender, to a soon-to-be 24-year-old with two weeks of MLB experience (and very little game action the past 3 years) coming off two straight reconstructive knee surgeries. Maybe I scaled down too much but ... realistically, it should be significant. 

[adorduan]

I want to see a whole season healthy from him before I would do anything. still 5 years of control after this one, it wouldn't cost that much more than doing it now. He still has a lot to prove IMO.

[Vanimal46]

3 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

I think the extent to which this proposed deal is team-friendly is being a little overblown. I know you hear "7 years, $34 million" for a player of Lewis' caliber and it seems egregious but in terms of baseball economics it's (sadly) really not.

As things stand, Lewis will make like $2 million over the next three seasons as a pre-arb player. In the extension scenario, he's making $7 million during that span. 

The proposal has him making $17 million during this 3 arbitration seasons. If things go really well for him, he could make more than that? Hardly a lock. 

What it comes down to is the first year free agency buyout ($10M) and those two team options. I'm open to the idea of reworking the salaries or options at the back end, but the Twins are taking a huge leap of faith by guaranteeing $25M over the first 6 years given his current situation so they'd need to recoup some value potential there for it to make sense.

Basically I tried to start with the Michael Harris framework and then scale down appropriately, from a healthy 21-year-old Rookie of the Year and MVP contender, to a soon-to-be 24-year-old with two weeks of MLB experience (and very little game action the past 3 years) coming off two straight reconstructive knee surgeries. Maybe I scaled down too much but ... realistically, it should be significant. 

I understand the reasoning you did. It’s still not a great deal for Lewis. He could make $17+ million in one arbitration season if he indeed becomes the star player TD has touted since he was drafted. This is the type of deal that a role player like Max Kepler takes. 

[Nick Nelson]

I assume the Twins can option Lewis before they place him back on IL? Is that accurate?

In that case he'd only get like half a season of MLB service this year (at most) and his free agency would be delayed by yet another season. Another incentive for him in accepting a deal like this. Eliminates having to worry about any of that at all.

[sweetmusicviola16]

54 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

I think the extent to which this proposed deal is team-friendly is being a little overblown. I know you hear "7 years, $34 million" for a player of Lewis' caliber and it seems egregious but in terms of baseball economics it's (sadly) really not.

As things stand, Lewis will make like $2 million over the next three seasons as a pre-arb player. In the extension scenario, he's making $7 million during that span. 

The proposal has him making $17 million during this 3 arbitration seasons. If things go really well for him, he could make more than that? Hardly a lock. 

 

2mil over the next 3 seasons is league minimum, what the team HAS to pay him. But if he performs and is healthy in good faith the team likely gives him a fair raise over that minimum. Same with year 3. Decent players are getting 3 mil in their 3rd seasons. So with your offer of 7mil in those first 3 seasons if he performs well he'd likely gain nothing, or very little. But as you say it is a guarantee.

As for his arb seasons, Vlad Guerrero is getting over 14 mil in this his 1st arb season, I believe. So if Lewis is the player that was argued about being the top Twin prospect this year then he should easily make 40mil through arb. 13mil avg. You're offering him less than half.

The 3 FA seasons you offer him 37mil. He'd get in excess of 90-100 mil if he's the player you predict him to be. No way he'd even consider your offer. Unless he knew he was toast because of that knee. He would stand to lose 85mil with your offer, actually worse because losing those 3 FA seasons would knock down his FA contract as an older player. Very likely. I doubt he does become this player, because of that kne. I hope I'm wrong.

[DocBauer]

I hadn't thought about this idea, but I like it. On the surface, the Twins are betting on Lewis. Also on the surface, if you're Lewis, coming off a pair of knee surgeries, no matter how confident you are in yourself, there has to be a part of you that looks at a guarantee of life changing $34M in case things just "happen", or "happen again" and things just don't turn out like you dreamed/expected. 

And I don't think the $ numbers and terms presented here are insulting or out of place.

But while I believe Lewis loves being a Twin, and wants to be part of the organization, and as much as the Twins love him and believe in him, I think he believes in himself enough that the numbers are too low to get the deal done.

To get something like this done, I believe the deal would either:

1] Have more guaranteed $, probably closer to $50M

...OR...

2] Contain bonuses or escalators. And I don't necessarily mean mirroring Buxton's deal with MVP clauses and the such. And I'm not up on what is or is not allowed pertaining to the collective bargaining deal and contracts, but how about bumps in regard to games played or PA? 

I would think Lewis being healthy enough to meet games played and PA and bump his AAV up another $5M...for example purposes only...would thrill the Twins as it means he turns in to the healthy and productive player everyone is hoping for.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

I understand the reasoning you did. It’s still not a great deal for Lewis. He could make $17+ million in one arbitration season if he indeed becomes the star player TD has touted since he was drafted. This is the type of deal that a role player like Max Kepler takes. 

Could be the kind of deal a guy who has played 2 weeks and blown out the same knee twice takes.  Only he really knows how healthy that knee is and how little it takes to injure it and lose millions of $$$ he has no way to make other then MLB. That kind of sure thing money wise might look good.

[Lasorda_This_Out]

To answer the Headline: Yes!

[terrydactyls]

DocBauer, you beat me to it.  Adding incentives might remove "betting on himself" as a reason not to sign an extension.  He would have a base salary for the next 6-8 years that would provide a financially secure future PLUS the opportunity to add on a boatload of cash if he performs at the level he believes he can obtain.  Sign him now.

[cmoss84]

9/100

[se7799]

6 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

If Lewis was to take this deal, then he's not a competitor. imo if he took this then he's likely to have just a so so career. Just those last 3 years alone he'd be losing 60mil. If he's as good as everyone, including himself thinks he is.

I agree probably wouldn't take this deal and his agent would advise him to pass as well.  However if he did accept a deal like this or similar. Simply does not mean he isn't a competitor.  Not sure of that reasoning.  I think we all have seen just how competitive this young man is.  If he wasn't a competitor he wouldn't have made it this far.

[jmlease1]

It's an interesting idea. While Lewis got a big signing bonus and hasn't been running broke like so many minor leaguers, that was quite a few years ago and it's not the kind of generational money that a deal like this would be. There might be some attraction for Lewis after the second surgery, no matter how confident he is in his abilities. I feel like it's worth exploring. I think the numbers are probably a little light, just considering where Lewis' upside is and where baseball economics have gone in the past few years?