College Season Kicks Off

[Jeremy Nygaard]

...and that means "Draft Season" is now upon us. 

The Twins have the 5th overall pick in the upcoming draft, so the biggest names in the sport are all prime candidates to be future Twins.

Throughout the next five months, we'll be doing all we can to help keep your informed on the player pool for the MLB Draft. The Twins were the biggest movers in the new lottery system and are now bound to select a player that should immediately become a Top 100 prospect in baseball. Last year's draft was especially hitter-heavy at the top as only four pitchers went in the top 19 picks, which included a huge surprise at #3 (Kumar Rocker) and another huge surprise at #7 (Cade Horton). This year's draft has a better mix. And that should be a lot of fun for Twins fans.

Chase Dollander, RHP, Tennessee
Dollander enters the season as most pundit's top collegiate pitching prospect and a likely Top 5 pick. As we've seen repeatedly in the past, trajectories of college pitchers can change in a hurry.  In his debut this past weekend, Dollander threw 81 pitches (only 47 strikes), but recorded seven strikeouts. His numbers weren't great in 4 2/3 innings, as he allowed two runs (including a home run) and walked and hit a batter. His impressive fastball was reportedly in the mid-90s consistently but never hit triple figures like it can. It's only his first start, though, so there is plenty of time left.

"Time" has been a huge friend to Dollander. As a 6' 3", 180 pound high-schooler, Dollander went undrafted and pitched his freshman year for Georgia Southern. That time as an Eagle taught Dollander how to eat and lift weights properly, improving his body (adding 20 pounds) and striking out 64 in 49 innings. He did walk 28, but got plenty of interest in the transfer portal, including from the team he shut down in his collegiate debut, Tennessee. 

Now entering his second season as a Volunteer, Dollander is considered by some to be the college pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg and that's high praise. The comp list beyond that is impressive: Gerrit Cole, Trevor Bauer, Jack Leiter. Any time you have the ability to add a potential top-of-the-rotation starter, you have to strongly consider it.

Paul Skenes, RHP LSU
Like Doogie says below, Skenes struck out 12 in six innings in his season debut.  Skenes (6'6", 235) also has a big mid-90s fastball which nearly reaches triple-digits. Since arriving at LSU, Skenes has changed his slider by working with noted slider-guy Wes Johnson (sound familiar?) and it's getting rave reviews.

Skenes, like current Twin Griffin Jax, attended the Air Force out of high school. While Jax remained at the academy through graduation and his commitment to the military delayed and interrupted his professional career, Skenes will not have any extenuating commitments. Cadets are allowed to leave before beginning classes their junior year without penalty. 

His professional future is brightest on the mound, but Skenes is also pretty good in the batters box. In those two years at Air Force, Skenes hit .367 while smacking 24 home runs with 81 RBI. You're probably thinking, "oh, so he plays first base too" and you're not completely wrong, because he's only done a little bit of that. Aside from pitching, he's been primarily a catcher(!) who committed to college to do just that. 

There is no doubt it will be interesting to follow Skenes through this season at LSU. If all goes well, there's no reason he wouldn't be in the conversation for the 5th pick (or the 1st pick for that matter). 

Hurston Waldrep, RHP, Florida
The final pitcher that will be mentioned today struck out six in five innings over the weekend, while allowing two runs on four hits and two walks. Waldrep transferred to Florida from Southern Miss and has an electric fastball (96-99 mph), a high-80s slider and a mid-80s 12-to-6 curveball.

Waldrep helped lead Southern Miss to the Super Regionals before fleeing to the SEC. An All-American, Waldrep struck out 156 in 106 1/3 innings in two seasons (one as a starter) as a Golden Eagle. Slightly smaller than Dollander and much smaller than Skenes, Waldrep still has good size (6' 2, 205) and hails from the noted hot-bed state of Georgia. 

Pitching for a Top-10 team, there's no reason to think that Waldrep won't get plenty of opportunities to pitch in front of big crowds, lots of scouts and in big games for the Gators this year. We could certainly see his trajectory trend upwards.

While these are just three names to follow for the season, there will be many, many more. The SEC, specifically and as seen above, is littered with potential top-10 picks. 

Dylan Crews, OF, LSU and Wyatt Langford, OF, Florida are largely considered to be the two best draft-eligible college hitting prospects. Jacob Gonzalez, SS, Ole Miss is arguably the top shortstop prospect. Enrique Bradfield Jr., OF, Vanderbilt is the most exciting prospect in all of college baseball with elite speed and the ability to put bat on ball, but Ben Revere-type power. (Heck, that might not be a terrible floor comp for Bradfield). The whole conference seems abnormally loaded (and not just for the 2023 draft either).

Twins Daily will keep pumping out draft content through the spring and into the summer leading up to the mid-July draft.

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[jishfish]

Love the analysis and update! It will be interesting to see if the Twins would consider breaking from their trend of position players early, given there appear to be 3-4 college arms that could be top 10 picks. My gut says no, but I hope if they fall in love with an arm they would be willing to take them high despite the demographic. 

I doubt Dollander will be there at 5 given his pedigree, but I am highly intrigued by Skenes. He really impressed me this weekend, and I think his combination of size/athleticism on the mound is really intriguing. I thought this article on FanGraphs today really highlighted his mentality and work ethic as well. It will be interesting to see how his work with Wes impacts his growth over the coming months.

Right now I think I would be happy with any of: Crews/Langford/Clark/Dollander/Skenes, but obviously a lot of time before the draft for that to change.

[Dman]

Jeremy curious if you know if this is a fairly deep class for pitching?  Will have to see how the pitcher's do and if they get injured but those three appear to be the best at the moment.

I am starting to be torn on what the Twins should do at number 5. If those 3 pitchers pan out there is a good chance one of them falls to 5.  Still there are 5 to 7 hitters that are really good and I like the top 4 hitters a lot (Crews, Clark, Langford, Wilson for me). Beyond that Gonzalez, Jenkins Bradford.  The Twins would have gotten a good player all the way down at 13 this year if you ask me they just would have had to have taken what was left.  They need to pick well because I doubt they get back to number 5 anytime soon.

I still think they will go with a bat as there are some really good ones at the top.  Arms are just so tough to gauge but if you want an elite power arm the top is a good place to get one.

I like Dollander's pitch mix but Skene's has had a monster start so far. Waldrep I am not sold on just yet but he has the pitches to change my mind.  I still think one of the top two pitchers goes to Washington as they need pitching and it should be there for them at the top this year.  Pittsburgh should go elite pitcher in my mind as it is the only way for them to grab an ace but they could grab Crews and then trade Reynolds for more established pitching from another teams farm. So they have options.  Detroit could use more outfield depth in their system but if Dollander or Skene's is there that could be their next Verlander type pitcher. Texas took pitching last year and they could use more outfield depth as well.  Still it is hard to say how this draft will fall.

At any rate I don't envy the Twins as they will have about 6 guys or so worthy at number 5.  Hopefully they grab the right  one.

[tony&rodney]

Max Clark is one guy I hope to see some video or read articles about in the next few months. 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

25 minutes ago, Dman said:

Jeremy curious if you know if this is a fairly deep class for pitching?  Will have to see how the pitcher's do and if they get injured but those three appear to be the best at the moment.

This is always a hard question to answer (unless it's a definite "no"). At this point last year, there were very few pitchers that weren't question marks. And even fewer high-end guys.

So at the very top of the draft, it's certainly better. There's also considerably better depth in the next tier. Two SEC pitchers that would figure into the top couple of rounds are already done for the year. But the next few months will give more definitive answers. 

I think at this point, the pitching class is going to be viewed favorably by teams as far as quality and depth (but that might be skewed by the lack of it last year). I also think that the hitting class is pretty good, too. 

But so much can change in five months.

Last year, by draft day, it felt like the Twins were drafting one spot too low. And lucked out that teams reached for pitchers and Lee fell into their laps.

This year, on February 21, it doesn't feel like a 4-man class yet... so I really like the Twins chances of drafting a stud. Even if you like Crews and Dollander the most and they're gone, you still have a college pitcher (Skenes) and both demographics of hitters (Clark and Langford/Gonzalez/Wilson).

I'd still lean the Twins going hitter, but it's going to be a tough call!

[davidborton]

Taking in college ball out here. Will offer scouting (sic) report on Jacob Wilson, SS at Grand Canyon. He is ranked 9th (some places 11th) best college ballplayer. Grand Canyon comes to Univ Arizona Tues Mar 7. Notes to follow.

One article on him: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/drawing-a-crowd-grand-canyon-shortstop-jacob-wilson-follows-in-his-fathers-footsteps/

db

=====

"What makes Wilson so attractive in this year’s draft is an extreme contact-oriented bat that has drawn plus-plus grades from area scouts. The righthanded hitter hit an impressive .358/.418/.585 with 12 home runs in his sophomore season, followed by a strong summer stint with USA Baseball’s Collegiate National Team.

It’s the elite contact skills that separate Wilson. Per Synergy, Wilson has swung and missed just 9% of the time in his 96 games with GCU, last year drawing 25 walks while fanning just seven times in 275 plate appearances.

Wilson’s aversion to striking out comes in part from the influence of his father Jack, a 12-year major league shortstop and now an assistant coach at Grand Canyon. The elder Wilson struck out just 11.6% of the time..."

[sweetmusicviola16]

Skenes is the guy I have been most intrigued over. I hope he makes it to the Twins 5th choice. He could be our Ohtani. If he were available at #5 and wasn't taken by us it would be a huge disappointment.

[Doctor Gast]

This will be an awesome year! It's still very early. I like all 3 pitchers but who knows, like most I feel the Twins will lean towards an athletic 2 way position player. Skenes is the most interesting to me because of his character make up, his athleticism, his size, his arm & he's from LSU.

Last year I was following Brady Neal a HS senior catcher draftee, he skipped the draft & went to LSU where he starts as a freshman. Then on I became interested in LSU. With Wes Johnson heading the program, I became a fan. Of course if our Gophers face off against  LSU, my loyalty goes to my alma mater. 

As I stated in the Wes Johnson thread, I hope Wes can give us some heads up and pull in this & future drafts.

[MMMordabito]

Some of these top guys will be on display at US Bank for the Cambria Classic in a little over a week.  Ole Miss, Vandy, Maryland and Nebraska are all participating and all have at least one top 50 player.

 

[Dman]

1 hour ago, davidborton said:

Taking in college ball out here. Will offer scouting (sic) report on Jacob Wilson, SS at Grand Canyon. He is ranked 9th (some places 11th) best college ballplayer. Grand Canyon comes to Univ Arizona Tues Mar 7. Notes to follow.

One article on him: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/drawing-a-crowd-grand-canyon-shortstop-jacob-wilson-follows-in-his-fathers-footsteps/

db

=====

"What makes Wilson so attractive in this year’s draft is an extreme contact-oriented bat that has drawn plus-plus grades from area scouts. The righthanded hitter hit an impressive .358/.418/.585 with 12 home runs in his sophomore season, followed by a strong summer stint with USA Baseball’s Collegiate National Team.

It’s the elite contact skills that separate Wilson. Per Synergy, Wilson has swung and missed just 9% of the time in his 96 games with GCU, last year drawing 25 walks while fanning just seven times in 275 plate appearances.

Wilson’s aversion to striking out comes in part from the influence of his father Jack, a 12-year major league shortstop and now an assistant coach at Grand Canyon. The elder Wilson struck out just 11.6% of the time..."

Yeah Wilson would be a great Arraez replacement and he would be a better runner with a better arm and more position flexibility as well. Not sure why but right now most have Gonzalaz ahead of him.  If Wilson shows more power this year he probably won't make it to number 5.

[chpettit19]

I'm typically a bat at the top of the draft guy because they're easier to predict and turn out more often than pitchers, but Skenes may be my pick if I had pick 1:1 right now. He's got the stuff, and athleticism, to be an absolute stud on the mound. One of the biggest hurdles pitchers face as they move up the levels of pro ball is being able to repeat their delivery to truly master all their pitches and increase their control. A guy who throws 99 with that slide piece, but is also athletic enough to be a position player (I don't love the idea of a pitcher catching, though. Way too much stress on their knees) should be ultra coachable and give him the best chance to advance quickly and front a rotation in the bigs.

The Wes connection there is nice as well. If Skenes is available at 5 and they don't take him (assuming he dominates the rest of the year and stays healthy) I'll assume they got some inside info from Wes and they didn't think he'd be a good fit. But a good word from Wes could also be enough for them to take an arm at #5 instead of a bat. Right now he's the guy I'm most hoping they get at #5.

[Seth Stohs]

I watched a few innings of Skenes last weekend. He just made throwing 99 look easy. Nice slider too. . 

[2wins87]

14 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

The Wes connection there is nice as well. If Skenes is available at 5 and they don't take him (assuming he dominates the rest of the year and stays healthy) I'll assume they got some inside info from Wes and they didn't think he'd be a good fit. But a good word from Wes could also be enough for them to take an arm at #5 instead of a bat. Right now he's the guy I'm most hoping they get at #5.

From what I know of his personality, kind of hard for me to see Wes not having positive things to say about one of his pitchers.  Not sure he'd have the inclination or be in the position to give the Twins' scouts anything different than other teams either.

But at the very least, I would think that the developmental philosophy he's brought to LSU will still be very similar to the Twins'.  So that probably would give them more confidence that he's being developed in a similar direction that they will take, or maybe they could see if he's not taking as well to the coaching.  But yeah, in some way the connection will probably make it more likely that they will take Skenes than they would be to take a clone without such connections.

I also don't know if this is a connection or not, but there is also the Air Force angle with Griffin Jax being the first and best player developed out of the Academy, though he was drafted by the prior regime.  Going from Air Force to Wes Johnson it almost seems like he's angling to be drafted by the Twins.

[2wins87]

I usually start researching the draft looking at college position players just because of recent draft tendencies.

It seems like they could be all over Wyatt Langford based on what I've seen reported on his exit velos and his strong college performance in general.  It also sounds like Brayden Taylor has some quality data behind him, and Fangraphs recently rated him #2 on their updated board, though he's more just outside the top 10 at most other outlets at least for now.

I can kind of see them going a different direction this year.  It sounds like there is quality depth in the draft this year for most types except maybe HS pitching?

[chpettit19]

35 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

From what I know of his personality, kind of hard for me to see Wes not having positive things to say about one of his pitchers.  Not sure he'd have the inclination or be in the position to give the Twins' scouts anything different than other teams either.

But at the very least, I would think that the developmental philosophy he's brought to LSU will still be very similar to the Twins'.  So that probably would give them more confidence that he's being developed in a similar direction that they will take, or maybe they could see if he's not taking as well to the coaching.  But yeah, in some way the connection will probably make it more likely that they will take Skenes than they would be to take a clone without such connections.

I also don't know if this is a connection or not, but there is also the Air Force angle with Griffin Jax being the first and best player developed out of the Academy, though he was drafted by the prior regime.  Going from Air Force to Wes Johnson it almost seems like he's angling to be drafted by the Twins.

I think Wes knowing what this particular FO looks for in pitchers means he can give them more specific information than the average team. Every team will ask the same character, work ethic, coachability, etc. questions (and have their scouts watching for clues on those questions as well), but Wes knows the specifics of what the Twins look for in pitchers so Wes can more easily thumbs up or thumbs down whether or not he really fits their philosophies. It's likely not a huge thing, but I think the Wes connection at least helps ensure they're 100% speaking the same language and he's answering the questions more specifically I'd think.

[MN_ExPat]

16 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

This will be an awesome year! It's still very early. I like all 3 pitchers but who knows, like most I feel the Twins will lean towards an athletic 2 way position player. Skenes is the most interesting to me because of his character make up, his athleticism, his size, his arm & he's from LSU.

Last year I was following Brady Neal a HS senior catcher draftee, he skipped the draft & went to LSU where he starts as a freshman. Then on I became interested in LSU. With Wes Johnson heading the program, I became a fan. Of course if our Gophers face off against  LSU, my loyalty goes to my alma mater. 

As I stated in the Wes Johnson thread, I hope Wes can give us some heads up and pull in this & future drafts.

As much as it pains me to admit, LSU looks really good this year (🤢🤮).  It's going to be really fun to watch the college ball season pan out.  My wife is already shaking her head in dismay as it is not uncommon at all to have multiple games on in the house (college and MLB) at once.

Of course this year I now have to plan out my sons games as well (both in person and live-streamed).  I'm pretty sure the wife might have me committed at some point. 

[Mike Sixel]

I don't see them going pitcher......they could have taken Greene and took Lewis instead......(remember when everyone said hitters were safer.....).

I want the best pitcher, but I don't see it.

[Blyleven2011]

On 2/21/2023 at 4:59 PM, Doctor Gast said:

This will be an awesome year! It's still very early. I like all 3 pitchers but who knows, like most I feel the Twins will lean towards an athletic 2 way position player. Skenes is the most interesting to me because of his character make up, his athleticism, his size, his arm & he's from LSU.

Last year I was following Brady Neal a HS senior catcher draftee, he skipped the draft & went to LSU where he starts as a freshman. Then on I became interested in LSU. With Wes Johnson heading the program, I became a fan. Of course if our Gophers face off against  LSU, my loyalty goes to my alma mater. 

As I stated in the Wes Johnson thread, I hope Wes can give us some heads up and pull in this & future drafts.

I'd agree after reading the article  that scenes would be a super pick , maybe a 2 way player * wishful thinking ) ...

Wilson as a position player looks very good and his father coached him , sounds similar to last year's pick ...

[Major League Ready]

On 2/22/2023 at 10:53 AM, Mike Sixel said:

I don't see them going pitcher......they could have taken Greene and took Lewis instead......(remember when everyone said hitters were safer.....).

I want the best pitcher, but I don't see it.

Greene being a HS pitcher was riskier.  If a college pitcher like Dollander or Skenes is available, I could see that being attractive.  We have SP depth but one of these guys could make us a different team, especially in the playoffs.  I like the idea of a 2025 starting rotation of Skenes / Prelipp / Ryan / Raya / Canterino or SWR.  What do ya think?

[Mike Sixel]

48 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Greene being a HS pitcher was riskier.  If a college pitcher like Dollander or Skenes is available, I could see that being attractive.  We have SP depth but one of these guys could make us a different team, especially in the playoffs.  I like the idea of a 2025 starting rotation of Skenes / Prelipp / Ryan / Raya / Canterino or SWR.  What do ya think?

I'd love that.....or, you know, Nola in there ( no chance).

The rating services are definitely down on Prelipp for some reason. 

[Major League Ready]

41 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'd love that.....or, you know, Nola in there ( no chance).

The rating services are definitely down on Prelipp for some reason. 

I want Nola bad but Philly has plenty of payroll space.  It will be tough to get him.  A healthy Severino and a Yankee team trying to manage their luxury tax could make him a possibility as well.  They have a ton of pitching prospects so they might not go as hard for Severino as Philly will for Nola.  Obviously, all pure speculation on my part.  On Prelipp, I think he has to prove he is healthy and still has that 65-70 grade slider.  I look forward to him shooting up the rankings this summer.

I am just glad there appears to be a very strong top 10 this year and we should end up with a great player.