How Does the Twins Lineup Stack Up Against the Yankees This Year?

[Hans Birkeland]

The New York Yankees tend to set the benchmark for offensive greatness in the American League, and they've got the reigning MVP. However, a comparison to Minnesota's projected lineup brings the truth to light:

This Yankees’ lineup is patched together with scotch tape and dreams of 2017.

Image courtesy of Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

One of the quirks of the new MLB schedule is that the Twins end up playing all of their seven games against the New York Yankees in April. The Twins have had a bit of a hard time beating the Yankees in recent decades, and last year was no exception, with New York winning five of seven games.

One thing that stood out to me though, particularly in the September matchup between the teams, was how surprisingly thin New York’s lineup was. They had some key injuries by then, sure, but even when healthy only two qualified hitters posted an OPS above .800 for the year.

In the offseason, they re-signed Aaron Judge and acquired Carlos Rodón to slot in behind Gerrit Cole in their rotation. Their pitching certainly looks great, but the lineup looks exactly the same, with the team putting a lot of faith in its two young shortstop prospects settling in quickly. It almost feels like we take for granted that New York will have a powerhouse lineup. Reality paints a different picture, so I thought it would be fun to look at why the Twins lineup will outperform the supposed “top ten” lineup of the Yankees.

Looking at this position player group, the first thing you notice is they can’t start their best hitters if Giancarlo Stanton plays DH, his natural position. One of D.J. LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres and Anthony Rizzo need to sit unless you throw Stanton out to left field, and that doesn’t seem wise. Let’s run through their options in the lineup:

The Yankees’ best hitter is Judge, and he makes up for a lot of deficiencies. Last year, he played like two MVP candidates in one, finishing the year with a 10.6 bWAR season. He’s amazing.

Their second best hitter last year was Rizzo, who posted a 131 OPS+ with 32 home runs and mistake-free defense. He will turn 34 this summer, spent time on the IL last year, and hit .228.

Torres was next best. He got some of his power back after a few down years, but maybe at the expense of being selective at the plate, with a career-low .310 OBP to go along with his 24 home runs. Here you start to see the issue.

Jose Trevino fooled us for a little while, upselling a hot start into being the starting catcher in the All-Star game, but in the second half he settled back into who he is: an overly-aggressive hitter with little power but some decent contact ability who is good for an 85 OPS+.

LeMahieu wasn’t very good last year with a slugging of .377, an improvement on his .362 from a year before. He still gets on base, but the drop in power is a little alarming for a guy set to turn 36 next summer.

Center-fielder Harrison Bader played well for the Yankees in the playoffs, but got into only 14 games during the regular season due to a foot injury. He’s a New York guy, and he’s had a couple of 114 OPS+ seasons, but he’s not a good bet to stay healthy, having never come to the plate 450 times in a season.

As for Stanton, he’s the kind of player that the team may have cut bait with if money were no object (he is still owed 175M, 20M of that paid by the Marlins). He can no longer field and he can’t run, ranking in the bottom five percent in the league by sprint speed. He also can’t stay healthy, with leg injuries decimating his career. New for 2022? He can no longer get on base, with a .297 OBP.

Aaron Hicks and Josh Donaldson are albatrosses on this team, and they couldn’t find any takers for either contract this offseason. New York will presumably roll with the pair, who combined to hit to a .663 OPS and 23 home runs in 2022. The Yankees think both can bounce back, especially Donaldson. But he’s 37. Hicks hasn’t been good since the Rockies were making the playoffs.

Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza are big-time shortstop prospects who both figure to play roles for the team in 2023, hopefully in place of Isiah Kiner-Falefa who managed only an 84 OPS+ last year. But IKF figures to still start a lot of games, at least in April.

Add it all up and you have a solid-enough offense, but if Judge misses time, this lineup is listless and will rely heavily on its pitching staff to keep them in games. Even with Judge, the Twins have roughly as much top end talent with a lot more depth.

Let’s confirm that going player by player. Note that this assumes Stanton starts in left field, because I’m feeling charitable.

Leading off, Jorge Polanco beats out LeMahieu. Both have injury concerns but Polanco is much younger and had a much better year last year.

Judge beats out Carlos Correa. Can’t do much about that.

Byron Buxton beats out Rizzo, although that can change quickly based on availability.

I think José Miranda is a more valuable hitter than Stanton at this point, based on performance, diversity of approach and quality of at-bats. And while Stanton’s place in the lineup costs the Yankees a bat, Miranda allows the Twins to see more of what they have in Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach at first base and DH.

Torres beats out Joey Gallo pretty easily, unless you are a big believer in a Gallo bounce-back.

Donaldson is ahead of Kirilloff, but only slightly. This could swing really quickly if Donaldson continues to slide, and Kirilloff emerges from Spring Training healthy.

Bader beats Max Kepler, but Kepler also beats Hicks, who figures to play here whenever Stanton is DH. I’ll call this a tie.

Christian Vázquez is a better hitter than Trevino. Yankees fans can take solace that their catcher is probably a better defender.

Larnach and Nick Gordon both are better hitters than IKF by quite a bit. If Volpe or Peraza have strong rookie seasons and IKF heads to the bench, this is a different story.

You can quibble about a few of these in both directions, but the Twins take at least five of nine, if not seven. The fact is, the Yankees are forced to play a lot of guys with a sub .700 OPS. Worse yet, none of them have any remaining upside, outside of maybe a mild bounce-back from Donaldson.

The Twins have injury issues, but their depth has improved to the point that all four of their bench players could capably start on other teams, including the Yankees- outside of Ryan Jeffers. That helps. The Yankees can’t say the same, with only the shortstop prospects and Oswaldo Cabrera available as reinforcements.

The Yankees, with their resources, have the luxury of deciding when they need to stop investing in their offense. The Twins don’t, and still have a better projected lineup with better fallback options. The top end pitching is a different story, however. Maybe the Twins should call Corbin Burnes to tell him they’re there for him.

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[TwinsDr2021]

Great write up, if salary isn't taken into consideration, I think Stanton is proven, and Miranda is just hope at this point. Who in real life would I want, Miranda because of the cost, but if the Yanks offered Stanton straight up for Miranda and pick up all the cost on Stanton, I am taking Stanton.

[Dave The Dastardly]

Interesting, but I find it confusing when you used different statistical categories to evaluate Yankee hitters; bWar for Judge, OPS+ for Rizzo, OBP for Torres for example, then went totally subjective when comparing Yankee hitters to Twins hitters. Regardless of methodology, I agree with your overall assumption. There is no reason, other than a self-constructed mental barrier in the minds of Twins players and coaches, for their continued embarrassment at the hands of the Evil Empire. But that's my totally data-deprived personal opinion. In other words, probably not worth much.

On another matter, I find your comments concerning Donaldson being an "albatross" for the Yankees and the organization unable to find any other team willing to take him off the Yankees' hands telling. Sometimes the best trade a team can make isn't so much what the team "gained" but what they got rid of. Kudos to the FO for sticking the Evil Empire with Donaldson.

[chpettit19]

I think the Astros set the benchmark for offensive greatness in the American League this year. Unless we're expecting another historic year from Judge. And a player for player comparison with them would be a really bad look for the Twins right now.

I agree with @TwinsDr2021 that Stanton is a better hitter right now than Miranda. Contract and health concerns keep it close, but if you're picking 1 of them in a vacuum for the 2023 season I think Stanton is a pretty easy choice. 

I'd actually take Kirilloff over Donaldson for 2023, though. That's me being a believer that his wrist is healthy, and will stay healthy. But I think a healthy Kirilloff is significantly better than Donaldson at this point of their careers. 

I'd mostly agree with the rest of the comparisons, though. I just don't think the Yankees offense is that great without an historic year from Judge. Lots of holes in that lineup.

[blindeke]

Too soon

[Trov]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Great write up, if salary isn't taken into consideration, I think Stanton is proven, and Miranda is just hope at this point. Who in real life would I want, Miranda because of the cost, but if the Yanks offered Stanton straight up for Miranda and pick up all the cost on Stanton, I am taking Stanton.

Have you looked at the home road splits for Stanton?  Also, after the all star break he was terrible. Sure, he was hot the first half, but even if money was equal, I would not take Stanton over Miranda because Stanton you cannot count on anymore. 

[farmerguychris]

Gee..... thats too bad that Stanton can't get on base and still owed that kind of money.... Shucks!  😄

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I think the Astros set the benchmark for offensive greatness in the American League this year. Unless we're expecting another historic year from Judge. And a player for player comparison with them would be a really bad look for the Twins right now.

I agree with @TwinsDr2021 that Stanton is a better hitter right now than Miranda. Contract and health concerns keep it close, but if you're picking 1 of them in a vacuum for the 2023 season I think Stanton is a pretty easy choice. 

I'd actually take Kirilloff over Donaldson for 2023, though. That's me being a believer that his wrist is healthy, and will stay healthy. But I think a healthy Kirilloff is significantly better than Donaldson at this point of their careers. 

I'd mostly agree with the rest of the comparisons, though. I just don't think the Yankees offense is that great without an historic year from Judge. Lots of holes in that lineup.

Yankees did win 99 games last season. more importantly, they're in our heads in a way that the Astros are not (even though we actually performed better against the Yankees than we did against the Astros last season). but your point is taken.

i don't know if Miranda is better than Stanton right now or not. Stanton is more proven, but coming off what looks like a worse year (even if the OPS+ is comparable, Stanton was worse in the 2nd half and missed a lot of time; Miranda recovered from a rocky start and finished out the year pretty well) and with some serious injury issues...maybe, maybe not.

Yankees have kind of a weird lineup.

[chpettit19]

28 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Yankees did win 99 games last season. more importantly, they're in our heads in a way that the Astros are not (even though we actually performed better against the Yankees than we did against the Astros last season). but your point is taken.

i don't know if Miranda is better than Stanton right now or not. Stanton is more proven, but coming off what looks like a worse year (even if the OPS+ is comparable, Stanton was worse in the 2nd half and missed a lot of time; Miranda recovered from a rocky start and finished out the year pretty well) and with some serious injury issues...maybe, maybe not.

Yankees have kind of a weird lineup.

I think the Yankees are in fan's heads more than player's heads. I think they just typically have a much better team than the Twins so they tend to beat the Twins a lot. And if I'm wrong about the player's heads then I hope Correa gets their heads straightened up.

For the rest of their careers I'll take Miranda, but for 1 season I'd bet on the guy whos done it way more. Miranda actually faded down the stretch. It's why he changed his diet and workout routine to get his new "sexy" body. I will grant that Stanton's dip in production last year could've been the start of his decline, but I think he's got at least 1 more 130+ OPS+ in him. And I generally question rookie year performances. The majors is all about adapting, and the league is going to adapt to Miranda. It's why I'm not sold on the Guardians being all that great again offensively. A bunch of no name rookies hit the ground running last year, but it's much harder to maintain your production once the league gets an idea on how to get you out. I believe in Miranda overall, but when just discussing him vs Stanton I'd bet on Stanton for this 1 season.

The Yankees are hoping for just as much youth production, and veteran bounce back, this year as the Twins. Lemahieu and Donaldson with a sprinkling of Hicks for the Yankees. Polanco and Gallo with a sprinkling of Kepler for the Twins. Peraza, Volpe, and Cabrera for the Yanks. Lewis, Larnach, and Kirilloff for the Twins. I think the Twins lineup matches up well on paper with the Yankees. I think the Astros make them both look like little league teams on paper. (That's some exaggeration, but the Astros are absolutely loaded)

[ashbury]

The existence of this article shows that the Yankees are getting free rent in our heads.

[Rosterman]

The bigger question is how each team's bats will do against the rotation arms that are thrown against them, as well as the short-term bullpen arms. 

[Minny505]

23 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I think the Astros set the benchmark for offensive greatness in the American League this year. Unless we're expecting another historic year from Judge. And a player for player comparison with them would be a really bad look for the Twins right now.

I don't think that's just this year. The Astros took that bench from the Yanks years ago and have run away with it.

That said, the Blue Jays are catching up fast to take it from the 'Stros.

According to Fangraphs offensive run values, take Judge off the team and the Doodles essentially become league average. 

[Minny505]

17 hours ago, Rosterman said:

The bigger question is how each team's bats will do against the rotation arms that are thrown against them, as well as the short-term bullpen arms. 

👆 That is actually what I was expecting to read when I opened the entry. 

The answer to the lineup is rather easy.

Yankees with Judge > Twins with Buxton > Yankees without Judge = Twins without Buxton

[Hans Birkeland]

The Yankees definitely live rent free in my head. It's an illness.

Stanton is toast, and the eye test confirms it. His stance has gotten increasingly awkward, he's easy to pitch to, and offers nothing outside of his bat. I think its unfortunate because I really liked Stanton and he was a top five player prior to joining the Yankees, but his descent reminds of how Miguel Cabrera turned into a slap hitter the past few years. And like Cabrera, he torches any flexibility the lineup would have without him.

I'm not sure Miranda is a future All-Star, but he has power and contact ability, and Stanton is only power at this point.

[Hans Birkeland]

45 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

👆 That is actually what I was expecting to read when I opened the entry. 

The answer to the lineup is rather easy.

Yankees with Judge > Twins with Buxton > Yankees without Judge = Twins without Buxton

Its a good point, speaking to their over-reliance on Judge being amazing. But I'd rather have Correa, Polanco, Miranda and Kirilloff over Rizzo, Torres, LeMahieu or Stanton. Match their Volpe and Peraza with Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis. Throw in some Ed Julien. Plus we don't have to play Donaldson, Hicks and Trevino in our lineup.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

All of us at Twins daily are here for you, Corbin. 24/7.

[21bdp21]

I do want to say that DJ Lemeihui was injured for the back end of last year and was playing with a broken foot. 

[JD-TWINS]

On 2/21/2023 at 1:10 PM, Dave The Dastardly said:

Interesting, but I find it confusing when you used different statistical categories to evaluate Yankee hitters; bWar for Judge, OPS+ for Rizzo, OBP for Torres for example, then went totally subjective when comparing Yankee hitters to Twins hitters. Regardless of methodology, I agree with your overall assumption. There is no reason, other than a self-constructed mental barrier in the minds of Twins players and coaches, for their continued embarrassment at the hands of the Evil Empire. But that's my totally data-deprived personal opinion. In other words, probably not worth much.

On another matter, I find your comments concerning Donaldson being an "albatross" for the Yankees and the organization unable to find any other team willing to take him off the Yankees' hands telling. Sometimes the best trade a team can make isn't so much what the team "gained" but what they got rid of. Kudos to the FO for sticking the Evil Empire with Donaldson.

It’s called addition by subtraction.