Twins Prospect Austin Martin Still Has Plenty to Offer

[TwinsDr2021]

10 hours ago, se7799 said:

I'm guessing you were not big on somebody like Buxton to start.  Considering he was all defense/glove and no bat first few years.

Buxton was 21 when he was first called up and his minor league stats are .301 average, OBP of .376 and SLG .507.  These two players are nothing like each other, at 24 Martin doesn't have the time to come in the league and hit like Buxton did, if he does his career will be real, real short.

[miracleb]

On base guy....yep we need that!  Who is going to bat lead-off for the Twins this year?  Polanco? (maybe not 100% healthy?)  Kepler? (If I see Kepler leading off again I might throw-up!)   An injury or two and Martin has a hot Spring.....maybe him?

[Hunter McCall]

17 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I was a huge fan of Martin coming out of Vandy, and him being part of the Berrios trade made that move sting a little less. I think Keith Law was onto something when he was worried about Martin's injury with Toronto changing his approach too dramatically to the "slap it the other way" approach. The swings he was letting off in the AFL looked far better than the swings he'd been showing when he came over from Toronto, and to start last year.

There was a very clear change in his stance, and he looked to be attacking the ball with more authority in September and the AFL. I don't know if that was him finally feeling healthy again, or him being frustrated with the way his season had gone and finally starting to just let it rip. It was great to see him make some changes when he came back at the end of the season, and gives me real hope for him going into 2023. Kirilloff and Martin are the 2 guys who's swings I'll be watching the closest come this weekend when the games start.

It's going to be a massive spring for those two! Very excited to see how they perform!

[Hunter McCall]

17 hours ago, MGX said:

It seems in todays world with the never ending amount of data we have access to people have very little patience with prospects/players in general.

In Martin's case he supposedly had one bad year - '22 in the minors & dropped in the prospect rankings. In his "disappointing" season he played the year at AA & had a .368 OBP with 35 SB's. Then he went on to play in the Arizona Fall league & hit .374 with a .936 OPS in 97 PA's, he also added 10 more SB's. In AA his BA was only .241 & his OPS only .683 so I guess that is what is being called disappointing. For a guy who is known for getting on base & being a very good base runner I'm not sure I see it as a disappointing season. IMO seems he's on track to be a good ballplayer.

You're absolutely correct! While Martin took a dip in some stats, he also added a ton in other departments. You mentioned the 35 steals which was massive, but he also cut down his strikeouts pretty dramatically as well. Martin's 2022 wasn't as disappointing as some people lead on. That is why it will be interesting to see how he performs in spring training!

[Hunter McCall]

16 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Other than his supposedly lack of power - which can be overcome at the plate with BA, OBP, BARISP and SBs - there is no reason that Martin is not in the mix for a starting corner OF job next season along with Gordon, Larnach, and Wallner. 2B is more of a long shot if Lee/Lewis and Julien are ahead of him in the queue.

Martin has top of the order plate and running skills. Also, I agree with Dave the Dastardly - get him a position and let him run with it.

Martin, in my book, remains at this moment, a better overall prospect than Salas.

I just think he will struggle to find at bats if he isn't used as a super utility guy. In that role, he can be a plus defender all over and play three out of every four days. This role is so important, especially with a manager like Rocco Baldelli who values giving his players rest days. Martin is athletic and versatile enough to embrace this role. I don't think sticking him in right field and not letting him play anywhere else would be beneficial to him or the Twins.

This is of course just my opinion. I do understand where you're coming from in the sense of mastering a position, and in most cases I would agree that that would be a wise path to take with a up-and-coming prospect. I just think Martin falls in a different category than most prospects.

[Hunter McCall]

16 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I think it's disappointing because those OBP numbers are likely impossible to maintain as he moves up the ladder if he can't hit higher than .241 and/or slug more than .317. Major league pitchers won't walk him at the kind of rates he'd need to be walked to be a useful player if he's only hitting .241 with no power. That's the disappointing part. What it means for his projections if he can't hit better than .241. He won't get on base at those clips against major league pitchers if he can't impact the ball significantly better than he did during most of the season. That's why the AFL stint was so encouraging.

There were 32 qualified major leaguers with an OBP of .350 or higher last year. The lowest batting average amongst them was .242 by Juan Soto. But he slugged .452, is a feared MLB star, and is known for having one of the best eyes in the history of baseball (his 20.3% walk rate last year is astronomical. For reference, Martin was at 11.8% in AA). The next lowest BA was .252 for Christian Yelich. The average OPS for that group was .846. Average BA for that group was .289. So I think it's pretty reasonable to call him hitting .241 and OPSing .683 in AA disappointing.

Edited to add: None of that means he's doomed or we should give up on him. Simply that he did have a disappointing season.

Excellent analysis! Thank you for your post!

[Hunter McCall]

13 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Many pundits believed Martin would never stick at SS, so why did the Twins make Martin suffer there & waste his time. They should have stuck him in CF to begin with, where he could have excelled & improved his value. Also last season he tinkered  too much with his swing, towards the end of the season into AFL he found his groove & shown surprising pop.

His RH bat is much welcomed in the OF. Even though it's crowded with his tool box full, he'll be a valuable asset. Which cannot be denied especially with his flexibility to be able to admirably fill in at 2B. His RH bat will also prevent someone that shouldn't be playing the OF from playing there.

There is spot for Martin in the future winning Twins roster don't sell him short.

Let's not forget that 365 days ago the shortstop position was much less sure than it is now. It's easy to look back and say they should have moved Austin Martin off of shortstop, but at the time, Correa was on a short-term deal and Royce Lewis hadn't played since 2019 (and then tore his ACL again in May). They also didn't have Brooks Lee or Jose Salas.

My point being, there was reason to believe if the Twins could make Austin Martin an average fielding shortstop, he would be the shortstop of the future. It's crazy how much has changed since then, but as I said in the article, that is why moving Martin around this year would be wise and valuable move for his future in the MLB!

[Hunter McCall]

10 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Don't give up on Martin having extra base power. Kirby Puckett went homerless as a rookie and only hit four until he was 26. That's a rather severe example, but power often develops later in a career.

It seems to me that Martin should have the tools to be a good defender at second, or in the outfield. It doesn't make sense to continue him at short IMHO. However, limiting him to one position just would limit his chances to break through to the majors. If he is strong enough offensively, he will find a place to play and stay there. 

I think the clearest path to the majors is in the outfield, particularly since the Twins are lacking in right handed corner outfielders at this point. Further, the club can use his on-base skills, no matter what position he plays.

The thought has always been that there's power in there to be tapped into. I agree with you, it's far too early to give up on it after one season in the system.

[Trov]

I do not understand why people keep wanting Martin to increase his power so much?  I get we are in the hit HR world for value, but there still should be some value in a guy that can get on base at high level, steal bases, and can get hits at a high level.  We loved Arraez for that, but still wished he hit with a little more power, but still loved his ability to get hits.  Martin has the speed to turn singles into doubles, and walks into stolen bases, unlike Arraez.  

I am still bullish on Martin, just do not look to make him something he is not.  The more you try to tinker with guys sometimes the results are the opposite of what you are seeking, then people will say see we knew he would be a bust, but you take away what made them great.  

It is like in football, when you have a running QB and tell them, we need you to be a pocket passer to stay healthy, but if you take away what makes them great, their ability to run, you have a sub par player.  For Martin, if you sacrifice some on-base percentage for hopeful increased power, you take away what makes him great, in hopes of improving something he may not be great at.  It is not like he is Jason Tyner or something, he can hit some HR. 

[se7799]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Buxton was 21 when he was first called up and his minor league stats are .301 average, OBP of .376 and SLG .507.  These two players are nothing like each other, at 24 Martin doesn't have the time to come in the league and hit like Buxton did, if he does his career will be real, real short.

You maybe did not read the context of this response to a comment.  I surely know and agree they are not a like.

[Otaknam]

16 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Benintendi has never been an MVP candidate. Not a single vote, even in his one good year. 

 I don't care what a guy does on offense AND defense. Tell me what the guy does on offense, THEN tell me what he does on defense. Offense is >>>>>>> important than defense, so get me a good bat, then we find out if his glove plays in the field. If it doesn't, get me another good bat and we'll see if his glove plays in the field. Good defense does not make up for being an offensive liability. Offense and defense shouldn't be one combined metric using a sliding scale based on an arbitrary percentage of the weight being given to defense.

I'm all for analytics, but the modern era has this part all wrong. Offensive statistics are concrete and calculable. Defensive statistics are arbitrary, largely based on estimates and often proven fallible. We know the guy will have a chance to show his worth on offense every ninth at bat, but he may not have the ball hit to him all game long. Two separate and very different evaluations, not one. Offense first, defense second.

You have stated the obvious. If a player can hit the team will find at bats, regardless of his defense. Arraez is a good example. But if he has a solid glove but isn’t a good hitter, at best he will be a twice a week utility player on the team to give better offensive player a day off. Pro baseball has been littered with these kinds of players forever. For the Twins Al Newman and Denny Hocking come to mind, but Martin is a much better prospect and I think will prove that he is. 

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

The Twins need the type of player Martin is.  He is what Arreaz was.  A guy who can lead off, get hits (albeit not HR's), and steal bases which Arreaz could not do.  Similar to Luis, Martin has no position but as others have stated, he has the skillset to be a super utility guy.

I am very excited to see how he does this year.  If the low average OF's (e.g. Kepler, Gallo, Taylor) falter, maybe Martin can step in and make a difference.

[Heiny]

Is Martin a trade chip?

We Have:

Correa  Buxton for at least 6 years.

Polanco, Kepler as veteran starters with value.

Miranda, Kirilloff, Larnach, Gordon all young players with multiple years of control.

Lewis, Lee, Julian, Wallner, Martin all highly touted prospects we would like to see as full time major leaguers as soon as next year.  With Rodriguez, Rodriguez, Salas in two to three years.

That's 16 position players for 7 positions.  I like them all and want them all to succeed at a high level in MLB.  But I don't see it happening for one team.  I think someone is going to be traded and Martin may be highly sought after if he should have an above average year.  Would love to see him with the Twins, But I wouldn't be surprised to see two or three of these guys traded.

 

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

3 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

3 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

The Twins need the type of player Martin is.  He is what Arreaz was.  A guy who can lead off, get hits (albeit not HR's), and steal bases which Arreaz could not do.  Similar to Luis, Martin has no position but as others have stated, he has the skillset to be a super utility guy.

I am very excited to see how he does this year.  If the low average OF's (e.g. Kepler, Gallo, Taylor) falter, maybe Martin can step in and make a difference.

Martin and Arraez might profile as similar types of hitters, but Martin hasn’t shown the contact skill. Maybe it’s there, maybe he’ll develop some power too, but he’d be a late bloomer.

I hope he does take those skills to the next level. I’m rooting for him.

[TwinsDr2021]

17 hours ago, Heiny said:

Is Martin a trade chip?

We Have:

Correa  Buxton for at least 6 years.

Polanco, Kepler as veteran starters with value.

Miranda, Kirilloff, Larnach, Gordon all young players with multiple years of control.

Lewis, Lee, Julian, Wallner, Martin all highly touted prospects we would like to see as full time major leaguers as soon as next year.  With Rodriguez, Rodriguez, Salas in two to three years.

That's 16 position players for 7 positions.  I like them all and want them all to succeed at a high level in MLB.  But I don't see it happening for one team.  I think someone is going to be traded and Martin may be highly sought after if he should have an above average year.  Would love to see him with the Twins, But I wouldn't be surprised to see two or three of these guys traded.

 

 

Miranda turns 25 in June,  AK just turned 25, Larnach turns 26 in 4 days, Gordon will play the season at 27, Wallner just turned 25, Julien turns 24 in April, Martin turns 24 next month, Lewis turns 24 in June, Lee just turned 22. So I agree the Twins have multiple years of control of these guys, only Lee is young, the others aren't old but generally players this age with little or no experience aren't blocking younger players with more potential.

I see Kepler gone after this year unless his is amazing, And I don't see the Club picking up Polanco in 25, so if he isn't back to himself this year and somebody else picks it up he could be moved to the bench. Wallner, AK and Larnach this seems like their last big chance if their play doesn't demand playing time this year, there really is no reason to keep guys this age around.

So could there be trades? yes, best case scenario so many play well that they are able to flip a couple for pitcher and a prospect or two. Worst case guys like Martin, Wallner, Larnach, AK don't play great and they will have little to no trade value.

I really, really hope for the best case.

[Steve71]

I think in fairness you realistically have to deduct one year from each of these players "ages" due to CV19 and 2020.

That makes it look a bit better, 21-25 for this list.

[Hunter McCall]

16 hours ago, Heiny said:

Is Martin a trade chip?

We Have:

Correa  Buxton for at least 6 years.

Polanco, Kepler as veteran starters with value.

Miranda, Kirilloff, Larnach, Gordon all young players with multiple years of control.

Lewis, Lee, Julian, Wallner, Martin all highly touted prospects we would like to see as full time major leaguers as soon as next year.  With Rodriguez, Rodriguez, Salas in two to three years.

That's 16 position players for 7 positions.  I like them all and want them all to succeed at a high level in MLB.  But I don't see it happening for one team.  I think someone is going to be traded and Martin may be highly sought after if he should have an above average year.  Would love to see him with the Twins, But I wouldn't be surprised to see two or three of these guys traded.

 

 

I like where your head's at! About a month ago I wrote an article about trading some of the wealth of talent in the upper minors for an ace

To sum it up, if the Twins are in contention in July, I think they're great candidates to swing a deal for an ace! In here I mention Zac Gallen and Corbin Burnes as a couple potential targets.

I do, however, believe the Twins will likely part with one of their more valuable prospects in the scenario. Unless Martin lights it up in the first half, he just doesn't have the value on the trade market necessary to headline a package for a difference making player, so the Twins may as well hold onto him and develop him. I think Lee, Lewis, and Salas (in order from most valuable to least valuable according to baseballtradevalues.com) are all possibilities to headline a deal.

I am 1000% on board with something like this. Losing these prospects would be hard, but it is really tough to win in the MLB. If you have a chance to make a play at a deep playoff run, you have to take it. The Twins have put themselves in really good position with top-end minor league depth at a premium position (that's all without mentioning they have the number 5 overall pick in the 2023 draft), it might be wise of them to consider putting their chips in the middle of the table at the deadline!

Thanks for the comment! It got me going on one of my fun little tangents!

[Hunter McCall]

3 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Miranda turns 25 in June,  AK just turned 25, Larnach turns 26 in 4 days, Gordon will play the season at 27, Wallner just turned 25, Julien turns 24 in April, Martin turns 24 next month, Lewis turns 24 in June, Lee just turned 22. So I agree the Twins have multiple years of control of these guys, only Lee is young, the others aren't old but generally players this age with little or no experience aren't blocking younger players with more potential.

I see Kepler gone after this year unless his is amazing, And I don't see the Club picking up Polanco in 25, so if he isn't back to himself this year and somebody else picks it up he could be moved to the bench. If Wallner, AK and Larnach this seems like their last big chance if their play doesn't demand playing time this year, there really is no reason to get guys this age around.

So could there be trades? yes, best case scenario so many play well that they are able to flip a couple of pitcher and a prospect or two. Worst case guys like Martin, Wallner, Larnach, AK don't play great and they will have little to no trade value.

I really, really hope for the best case.

To add to this list, Jose Salas' ETA is 2024 and Emmanuel Rodriguez's ETA is 2025, so you could probably factor them in as high-end prospects reaching the majors in the not-so-distant future. For what it's worth, I do think if the Twins are competitive at the deadline (I think they will be), they should go all in on a trade by moving a top-tier prospect or two. Keep in mind the Twins also have the number 5 overall pick in the draft and they've had an affinity for college-age bats, so if that pattern holds true, they will likely add another bat to the "be here soon" list.