The Twins Hitter Set to Benefit Most from Shift Ban Isn't Who You Think

[Ted Wiedmann]

A number of Twins’ hitters are likely to benefit from the rule change, but the hitter most impacted by the new shift ban might not be who you think it is.

Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

 

With the new shift ban coming into effect in 2023, several Minnesota Twins’ hitters could stand to benefit. Joey Gallo, perhaps the face of the new rule change, is certainly one player who could see increased production. Max Kepler is another very pull-heavy hitter who could potentially see his numbers increase with a now more open right side of the infield. A lot of the focus of the shift ban has been directed to left-handed hitters, and understandably so.

The shift against left-handed hitters was quite apparent, as it often involved a second baseman in right field and sometimes four outfielders, making baseball traditionalists sick to their stomachs as none of the players were seemingly in the spots they were supposed to be. 

There is one Twins hitter who might benefit most from the shift ban that I have rarely seen mentioned. He may not be an obvious shift victim candidate due to his physical profile and offensive production in the last couple of seasons, but he stands to gain more from the rule change more than players like Kepler and Gallo. That hitter is Byron Buxton.

Believe it or not, Byron Buxton is not only the most pull-heavy hitter on the Twins but also the most pull-heavy player in all of baseball. According to Statcast, in 2022, out of hitters with 300 plate appearances, Buxton had the highest pull% in MLB at 54.2%. Gallo was eighth in pull% at 48.4%, and the league average pull% is 45.9%.

 

 

 

Teams noticed this pull-happy tendency from Buxton and adjusted their defenses accordingly. In 2022 among hitters with 250 plate appearances, Buxton was shifted 78.8% of the time, good for 34th most in MLB but second most among right-handed hitters, only trailing Eugenio Suarez of the Seattle Mariners. 

The shift impacted Buxton dramatically. Contrary to standard thought, Buxton only hit .188 (13-for-69) on ground balls, despite his world-class speed. His shift and non-shift splits were jarring as well. In the 301 plate appearances against the shift, Buxton registered a .312 wOBA. When there was no shift, Buxton’s wOBA was .517 in only 81 plate appearances. The league average wOBA is .316, so a .517 wOBA in an 81 PA sample is astounding. His .205 difference in shift versus non-shift wOBA was the biggest in all of baseball among players who received at least 15 plate appearances against both the shift and no-shift.  

 

 

While it is impossible that Buxton can sustain a .517 wOBA, it may have been understated how much he can benefit from the shift ban. While the strikeout rate may limit him from reaching the elite tier of hitters in MLB, Buxton makes as consistent and hard contact as anyone. He ranked in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity, 97th percentile in barrel%, and 93rd percentile in hard hit%. 

His .224 batting average in 2022 may have disappointed some, but I would be shocked if it stays that low in 2023. Being able to hit ground balls again opens up new avenues for all hitters, particularly for ones like Byron Buxton, who runs like the wind. So while this new era of baseball defense may take some below-average hitters to average ones, it may also take the Twins’ superstar into a class of his own.  

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[Minderbinder]

Well done, nice piece of work, thanks.

[GKuehl]

Really interesting work, thanks! 100% agree — fielders will have to field his grounders on the move (if at all), forcing them to make more difficult, rushed plays to throw Buck out at 1st. 

[Dman]

Didn't see that coming but I guess when your slugging is 500 to 600 every year the shift doesn't seem to be as large a problem. Great analysis though.  Like I said I never picked up on it. How great would that be if Buck upped his average a little.

[RickOShea]

The way Buck was hitting last year, you wouldn't think too much about the shift.  He seemed to beat the shift by hitting the ball into the stands, on a lot of occasions.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Wow!  Nice digging for some unexpected information.  A few more batting average points for Buxton would be awesome. Let’s hope that happens!

[ToddlerHarmon]

Nice, unexpected observation! I wonder how many of those 16 infield dots in the spray chart were when he was shifted. Fun to imagine the havoc in opposing infields, and the frustration of pitchers deciding whether to pitch up to avoid a .400 average on grounders or down to avoid upper deck home runs.

Aside: can someone interpret the spray chart dots for me? Are they where the ball hit the ground first, or where it was fielded? I'm guessing number 1, but I don't want to assume...

[chpettit19]

39 minutes ago, ToddlerHarmon said:

Nice, unexpected observation! I wonder how many of those 16 infield dots in the spray chart were when he was shifted. Fun to imagine the havoc in opposing infields, and the frustration of pitchers deciding whether to pitch up to avoid a .400 average on grounders or down to avoid upper deck home runs.

Aside: can someone interpret the spray chart dots for me? Are they where the ball hit the ground first, or where it was fielded? I'm guessing number 1, but I don't want to assume...

They're likely a little of both. Grounders are marked where they're fielded/first touched. Line drives and popups are marked where they landed. So a bunch of those singles are likely groundballs showing where they were fielded. At least that's what the tracking systems I'm aware of do. Perhaps baseball savant is different, though.

[IndianaTwin]

Interesting. 

I've seen some models projecting how teams might address not being able to shift against lefties by putting one of the outfielders in the short right field where the "shifted" infielder used to play. The SS would play pretty close to that magical line up the middle. The CF and RF would play reasonably close to their normal positions, shading as appropriate for fly balls. That does leave LF considerably more open than in the past, but I could see it happening with certain hitters, particularly those with less power, since in that situation the CF could actually shade toward left. 

BUT..., think of how that would NOT work with Buxton. If you mirrored that on the right side, that double in RF is likely a triple, and the quartet of singles in CF likely turn into doubles. And no infielder is going to be able to throw him out from short left.

Interesting indeed. But as RickOS notes, Byron also has another pretty effective way of beating the shift.

 

[Minny505]

This has got to be an early leader in the TwinsDaily clubhouse for best entry of the year. Absolutely incredible analysis that came out of nowhere.

I have heard a lot of analysis on the impact of the new shift limitations on individual players, but I never considered a RHB, especially one with speed, seeing an uptick in hits. I wonder if the studies we all have heard/read are also only using LHB in their data sets.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Thanks for bringing a different discussion POV to this Ted.  The Gallo/Kepler portion has been buried into the ground.
 

[sun]

If he has a healthy season and hits well, Buxton can make big bonus money depending on how many  MVP votes that he receives. The shift ban could eventually help to reward him with many millions of $$, so he has plenty of incentive. In the past, he's placed 18th & 16th in MVP voting.

Annual MVP Bonuses:

1st: $8M
2nd: $7M
3rd: $6M
4th: $5M
5th: $4M
6th-10th: $3M

[sweetmusicviola16]

If only he could just stay on the field......

[2wins87]

This is really interesting and surprising.

I am wondering how much different the shifts on him will actually be under the new rules though.  I don't really recall what opposing defenses did against him, but RH shifts are usually less extreme. I can't recall many times the SS was actually playing on the grass, and they wouldn't throw him out from there anyway. It should probably open slightly larger holes on the left side, but I don't think it'll be a huge difference.

[Doctor Gast]

Thanks Ted, you made my day. I'm really excited what kind of #s Buck will come up with this season. I love his philosophy, hit the ball hard, nothing very complicated.

[JD-TWINS]

He needs to stay healthy & maybe he can pick up an extra $3 million for MVP votes! If he plays 80 games in OF & 50 games at DH I’ll be ecstatic. That would be his 2nd highest total in career & would get him 500 AB’s - at same HR % as last year it gives him a real shot at a 40 HR season.

He doesn’t need to be a superstar - just needs to be in the line-up - this team is built around good to very good. This represents our staff & our everyday line-up! His career BA is .248, so if he plays 130 games or approaches that number, I’ll take a .260 average (12 point uptick w/o the shift) and 28-30 HR. We just need him available in the playoffs!

Career averages for most:

.260 from Buxton - .255 from Kepler - .270 from Polanco - .265 from Miranda - .275 from Correa - .280 from Kirilof - .270 from Vázquez - .270 from Gordon - .260 from Larnach - .210 from Gallo…….no stars, lots of good!

[jkcarew]

Come on. Small sample, small sample, small sample. Buxton only hits the ball on the ground by accident. He beats the shift with fly balls and deep drives.

I predict a MUCH more muted impact regarding the shift rules. And Buxton will fit right into that category. He’s not going to start trying to hit the ball on the ground…his GB rate is low and headed lower every year, and the FB rate is high and headed higher every year. When he accidentally hits the ball on the ground…and it’s accidentally up the middle…he’ll be more likely to get a single. Won’t happen nearly of frequently as people think it will. The pull side fielder will play in the hole and these guys aren’t going to change their swings to try and hit line drives up the middle. They’re not. Lefties like Kepler have a better chance to see something significant IF the second basemen play significantly shallower. But I’m not expecting much.

Still, the typical lefty can now do nothing but pull and launch, striking out at ever increasing rates in the effort…all while raising his BA from 220 to 225. This rule has ‘law of unintended consequences’ written all over it.

[Doctor Evil]

Great article. Buck should be our primary DH and his numbers will explode along with staying healthy imo.

[Ted Wiedmann]

2 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

Come on. Small sample, small sample, small sample. Buxton hit a TOTAL of 32 singles last year. And how many of them were not even ground balls? There’s very little to be derived by these numbers, IMO.

I predict a MUCH more muted impact regarding the shift rules. And Buxton will fit right into that category. He’s not going to start trying to hit the ball on the ground…his GB rate is low and headed lower every year, and the FB rate is high and headed higher every year. When he accidentally hits the ball on the ground…and it’s accidentally up the middle…he’ll be more likely to get a single. Won’t happen nearly of frequently as people think it will. The pull side fielder will play in the hole and these guys aren’t going to change their swings to try and hit line drives up the middle. They’re not. Lefties like Kepler have a better chance to see something significant IF the second basemen play significantly shallower. But I’m not expecting much.

Still, the typical lefty can now do nothing but pull and launch, striking out at ever increasing rates in the effort…all while raising his BA from 220 to 225. This rule has ‘law of unintended consequences’ written all over it.

I think the point is more Buxton pulls the ball at a higher rate than anyone in baseball, and we have a sizable sample on that. Regardless of the batted ball type I think the defense not being able to position themselves accordingly is likely to help Buxton. 

[Ted Wiedmann]

12 minutes ago, Doctor Evil said:

Great article. Buck should be our primary DH and his numbers will explode along with staying healthy imo.

He would certainly carry value as a DH but it’s so much fun to watch him in centerfield. I would imagine the Twins plan to DH him a fair amount this upcoming season. 

[jkcarew]

8 minutes ago, Ted Wiedmann said:

I think the point is more Buxton pulls the ball at a higher rate than anyone in baseball, and we have a sizable sample on that. Regardless of the batted ball type I think the defense not being able to position themselves accordingly is likely to help Buxton. 

I’ll respectfully disagree. Last year, only 52% of Buxton’s PA’s even resulted in a ball in-play. The large majority of those were in the air. The Outfielders will continue to shift him. The new rules for the infielders will have minimal impact.

[Ted Wiedmann]

2 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

I’ll respectfully disagree. Last year, only 52% of Buxton’s PA’s even resulted in a ball in-play. The large majority of those were in the air. The Outfielders will continue to shift him. The new rules for the infielders will have minimal impact.

Fair enough. I guess we’ll find out

[AceWrigley]

Gotta love those 2 infield doubles.

[sun]

5 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

He needs to stay healthy & maybe he can pick up an extra $3 million for MVP votes! If he plays 80 games in OF & 50 games at DH I’ll be ecstatic. That would be his 2nd highest total in career & would get him 500 AB’s - at same HR % as last year it gives him a real shot at a 40 HR season.

He doesn’t need to be a superstar - just needs to be in the line-up - this team is built around good to very good. This represents our staff & our everyday line-up! His career BA is .248, so if he plays 130 games or approaches that number, I’ll take a .260 average (12 point uptick w/o the shift) and 28-30 HR. We just need him available in the playoffs!

Career averages for most:

.260 from Buxton - .255 from Kepler - .270 from Polanco - .265 from Miranda - .275 from Correa - .280 from Kirilof - .270 from Vázquez - .270 from Gordon - .260 from Larnach - .210 from Gallo…….no stars, lots of good!

Yes, Buck does need to stay healthy. But he also needs to be allowed to play to earn his bonus money for plate appearances. Last year he only had 382 plate appearances and didn't earn any bonus money. If Rocco is too conservative with him, then he's going to be disappointed if it's due to Rocco keeping him off the field. As long as he's healthy he should play. And the Twins will have a better chance of winning the Division with him being in the lineup. 

• Plate Appearances
  $500,000 each for 502, 533, 567, 600, 625

[rv78]

12 hours ago, Doctor Evil said:

Great article. Buck should be our primary DH and his numbers will explode along with staying healthy imo.

His last 2 injuries were from sliding into 2nd base and getting hit on the hand with a pitch. Playing DH would have not prevented either one.

[Whitey333]

Awesome article.  Well researched and written.  To me it won't matter at all if Buxton cannot play more.  His career .244 BA does not make him a superstar.  But the potential is there.  It's always there.  It has been for 8 seasons now.  We just rarely see it.  I hope this is his year but the previous 7 years have told me not to hold my breath.

[Whitey333]

Awesome article.  Well researched and written.  To me it won't matter at all if Buxton cannot play more.  His career .244 BA does not make him a superstar.  But the potential is there.  It's always there.  It has been for 8 seasons now.  We just rarely see it.  I hope this is his year but the previous 7 years have told me not to hold my breath

[Trov]

This is one of the few times I would agree the anti shift rule will benefit a player.  Buck hits the ball so hard, when you take away that 3rd guy defending on that side of the infield it will greatly limit the range on that side. Hopefully there will be more balls hit through the left side now. 

[old nurse]

The proper analysis for wether or not the shift ban will help Buxton is not a spray chart of hits but of outs.  Do those outs fall witching where the shortstop could be positioned?  Answer that and you will know wether or not a shift cost him

[2wins87]

13 hours ago, Ted Wiedmann said:

I think the point is more Buxton pulls the ball at a higher rate than anyone in baseball, and we have a sizable sample on that. Regardless of the batted ball type I think the defense not being able to position themselves accordingly is likely to help Buxton. 

I did end up watching some random videos of Buxton batting on Baseball Savant, and the shifts were not too extreme.

I never saw the shortstop playing deeper than the edge of the grass, so the new rule is irrelevant there.  I did see the second baseman playing maybe 5-10 feet to the left of the new line behind second base sometimes, but other times they were already positioned basically up the middle on the right side.

So some teams will have to change their preferred defensive alignments against him a little bit, and he will probably get a hole up the middle to the left side of second base more often, and maybe a slightly bigger seam between the SS and third baseman.  I think he can still be shifted somewhat effectively.

Overall, the new rule doesn't affect RH shifts too much.  The biggest change will still be for LH hitters who get the second baseman in right field all the time.  Still not sure how much of a difference that will make in the final stats either.