Will Max Kepler and Joey Gallo have higher averages now that shift ban is in effect?

[TaterTot]

As we all know, many rule changes are coming to MLB in 2023, including banning the shift. That could greatly impact players like Max Kepler or Joey Gallo, who are extreme pull hitters. Kepler and Gallo had outstanding 2019 seasons, the year of the juiced ball. But they have both been sub-par since, albeit Kepler has struggled with injures. The twins took a risk on Gallo this off-season, singing him to an 11m$ deal, betting that he would hit for a higher average now that the shift is banned, after hitting only 160 last year. The shift being banned will most likely give Kepler and Gallo a few more hits, but how much will it improve their play? 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think that just having less defenders in the way of the ball will give them a little better batting average. . . maybe 20 points or so, but I think Kepler's issues run deeper than that. The last couple of years when we all complained about Miguel Sano's excessive strikeouts, Kepler was essentially doing the same thing with weak contact and easy ground balls and the shift wasn't taking away any home runs.  Joey Gallo we know less about, so I'm not as confident with the predictions.  It would be amazing if we could get him back to vintage Gallo with lots of strikeouts but lots of run producing as well, but I would be exceedingly happy (as would the Twins) with a return to the "pretty good" Joey Gallo of a couple of years ago.  That would be a fine addition to the lineup.

[USAFChief]

I doubt the shift ban has much effect on offense anywhere. 

 

Getting strikeouts down to something resembling historical levels would.

[old nurse]

3 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I think that just having less defenders in the way of the ball will give them a little better batting average. . . maybe 20 points or so, but I think Kepler's issues run deeper than that. The last couple of years when we all complained about Miguel Sano's excessive strikeouts, Kepler was essentially doing the same thing with weak contact and easy ground balls and the shift wasn't taking away any home runs.  Joey Gallo we know less about, so I'm not as confident with the predictions.  It would be amazing if we could get him back to vintage Gallo with lots of strikeouts but lots of run producing as well, but I would be exceedingly happy (as would the Twins) with a return to the "pretty good" Joey Gallo of a couple of years ago.  That would be a fine addition to the lineup.

Shifts do not take away home runs. That would be a heck of a great rune by the 2b to rob a hr from starting in short right.

[old nurse]

I wonder if they tinkered so much with Kepler’s swing that it is now off. Hopefully he spent time over winter workin on it

[Muppet]

Last year was one of his worst. He’s likely to be at least slightly better this year. The end of the shift will get the credit even if it has nothing to do with it.

[Brad.dahlen]

I think one way that it helps out Kepler is with his attitude. I've heard that he gets frustrated with being shifted on so much. Hopefully he can now hit with a clear mind and just put the barrel on the ball. So many young MLBers have good starts to their hitting careers because they take a much simpler approach to hitting, HIT IT HARD. I have noticed over the last couple years that Kepler seems to be constantly tinkering with his swing.

 

I think the shift ban could raise his batting average by 20-30 points, if he stays healthy and has a clear mind. I think it will also help that he will be asked to play CF much less than years prior. 

[dxpavelka]

Maybe.  Same might be said for Miguel Sano.

 

[Taildragger8791]

18 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

Maybe.  Same might be said for Miguel Sano.

 

I don't see the relationship between a shift and a 37% K-rate and a bunch of fly balls and pop outs.

[Trov]

The only way it will affect their averages is if it changes their mindsets.  Both have stated the shifts effected their head a bit.  Gallo actually may see a little increase, more than Kepler would, because he was facing 4 man outfields more than anyone.  We never talked a ton about it, Polanco faced them some, but Gallo faced them a lot.  When you have been trained to hit fly balls and try to hit "gaps" and teams took away gaps, it would mess with heads.  I mean some defenses against Gallo had the 1st baseman way off the line, the 2nd baseman deep in right, and one other guy on infield to right of second.  There was not 1 guy on left of 2nd.  Gallo had no idea how to hit the ball there to get the free hit, and hell if you bunt it hard enough you could have a double.  

If they can clear their heads of the shift affecting them, then that is only way it will help.  As far as infield shifts went, I have long said the new rule will do very little to help get more hits.  Middle infielders will still play up the middle just behind the bag basically, and the corner guys will still play well off the line, depending on runners.  The other middle infield guy will still play as deep as they can and close to where they think the ball will be hit.  

I could see maybe 5 to 10 balls that will be hits now, that the infield shift would have taken away.  

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Brad.dahlen said:

I think one way that it helps out Kepler is with his attitude. I've heard that he gets frustrated with being shifted on so much. Hopefully he can now hit with a clear mind and just put the barrel on the ball. So many young MLBers have good starts to their hitting careers because they take a much simpler approach to hitting, HIT IT HARD. I have noticed over the last couple years that Kepler seems to be constantly tinkering with his swing.

 

I think the shift ban could raise his batting average by 20-30 points, if he stays healthy and has a clear mind. I think it will also help that he will be asked to play CF much less than years prior. 

Hopefully that extra 20-30 points is all via XBH'S.

[Brady]

Assuming both Kepler and Gallo rebound from poor seasons last year (which I'm not convinced is a sure thing), it will be interesting to see how much of the improvement will be attributed to favorable outcome variance, the shift ban, and a better mental approach. If analytic techniques can parse out specific hits that would've likely been outs with a shift then we will have at least some answer, but overall I think it will be difficult to say. It's long been said that Kepler is an extraordinarily unlucky hitter (relative to his batted-ball metrics) so you'd think at some point the math would turn in his favor, but it hasn't since 2019. For Gallo, I think much of the improvement (again, that I'm assuming will come) will be the product of lapping a down year at the plate in 2022, so I'll be looking at how he does relative to his more successful campaigns.

I'm hopeful for both and love what they bring defensively, but I don't think the shift ban will be a significant factor one way or another.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

It can't hurt!

[chpettit19]

As others have mentioned, Kepler's problems were far less about the shift than weak contact. If he doesn't start hitting the ball harder more consistently the shift won't matter that much. The shift allowed teams to take away the missiles that would've found their way through, not the 20 hoppers or lazy fly balls. Kepler hits a lot of 20 hoppers and lazy fly balls. That's been his problem. The "unlucky" narrative about him has been pretty well debunked by his quality of contact stats. He simply hits too many lazy flyballs. Maybe the shift ban does allow him to loosen up and just swing to hit the ball hard now. But that's the best bet on truly improving his numbers.

[wsnydes]

16 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I doubt the shift ban has much effect on offense anywhere. 

 

Getting strikeouts down to something resembling historical levels would.

Yeah, banning the shift will help some individual players but I don't know that it'll cure much on an overall view with K rates where they are.

And really, teams are just going to camp the SS or 2B behind 2B and they'll sprint to wherever they'd have lined up before as the pitch is delivered anyway.  I'll be interested to see if there ends up being any real impact at all.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

17 hours ago, old nurse said:

Shifts do not take away home runs. That would be a heck of a great rune by the 2b to rob a hr from starting in short right.

I believe I said that.  I was cautioning those who may think that getting rid of the shift would magically return Kepler to 2019.  

[chpettit19]

43 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

Yeah, banning the shift will help some individual players but I don't know that it'll cure much on an overall view with K rates where they are.

And really, teams are just going to camp the SS or 2B behind 2B and they'll sprint to wherever they'd have lined up before as the pitch is delivered anyway.  I'll be interested to see if there ends up being any real impact at all.

FYI, they're not allowed to be moving while the pitch is delivered. They'll line them up a step to the left or right of 2nd, but they're not allowed to jump to the other side like you're suggesting.

[wsnydes]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

FYI, they're not allowed to be moving while the pitch is delivered. They'll line them up a step to the left or right of 2nd, but they're not allowed to jump to the other side like you're suggesting.

Ah, I was under the impression that they couldn't move until the pitcher was in his windup.  Thanks for the clarification! 

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, wsnydes said:

Ah, I was under the impression that they couldn't move until the pitcher was in his windup.  Thanks for the clarification! 

That was my initial understanding as well, but MLB Network had a "new rules" special last week and they explained that there's no "sending a guy in motion" before the pitch. So they will be more or less stationary. I still don't think it has as big of an impact as some seem to think it will. Even the "highlights" they showed on that show were softly hit balls that are outs with an 2B with reasonable range. It'll help some, but you still have to hit the ball hard to really make it matter.

[wsnydes]

5 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

That was my initial understanding as well, but MLB Network had a "new rules" special last week and they explained that there's no "sending a guy in motion" before the pitch. So they will be more or less stationary. I still don't think it has as big of an impact as some seem to think it will. Even the "highlights" they showed on that show were softly hit balls that are outs with an 2B with reasonable range. It'll help some, but you still have to hit the ball hard to really make it matter.

Agreed.  I agree with @USAFChief in that dropping the K % is what would really help offenses.  That's the biggest reason why I didn't really care about the shift in the first place.  

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I believe I said that.  I was cautioning those who may think that getting rid of the shift would magically return Kepler to 2019.  

Your own typing

The shift wasn't taking away any home runs.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Exactly.  If the shift wasn’t taking away home runs, it would be foolish to think that not having the shift would restore Kepler’s home run power.  That will require something more.  

[nicksaviking]

I don't care about Kepler's average. I care that he's become a slap hitter. I doubt the shift isgoing to help him add more doubles and HR to his game.

[dxpavelka]

15 hours ago, Taildragger8791 said:

I don't see the relationship between a shift and a 37% K-rate and a bunch of fly balls and pop outs.

Actually, Gallo strikes out 37.2% of the time.  Sano only 36