What Are Realistic Expectations for Randy Dobnak?

[Cody Christie]

Randy Dobnak had a fairytale start to his professional career, but the last two seasons have turned into nightmares. What can the Twins expect from Dobnak during the 2023 season?

Image courtesy of Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

Randy Dobnak was never supposed to make it to the big leagues. His journey began at Alderson-Broaddus University, a Division II baseball program in West Virginia. Despite some impressive numbers, teams didn't draft him after his junior or senior seasons, so he headed to an independent league team called the Utica Unicorns. At the time, Dobnak needed to make ends meet and famously drove Uber to help supplement his baseball salary. His Uber driving story followed him as he drove his way into the Twins organization. 

Minnesota signed him for $500 during the 2017 season, and he made six appearances between rookie ball and Low-A. He posted solid numbers (2.43 ERA, 0.96 WHIP), but he was older than the average age of the competition at both levels. Dobnak pitched the entire 2018 campaign in Cedar Rapids, but one coach changed his career. Justin Willard (now the Twins Minor League Pitching Coordinator) was the pitching coach at the time, and he suggested that Dobnak start throwing a new sinker. Dobnak used the pitch to skyrocket through the Twins organization in 2019. 

Armed with his new sinker, Dobnak pitched at three different minor-league levels in 2019 before making his big-league debut. In 135 minor league innings, he posted a 2.07 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP. He was impressive after his call-up by limiting opponents to five earned runs in 28 1/3 innings. In October, the Twins thrust him into the national spotlight by having him start a playoff game at Yankee Stadium. It didn't go well, as he allowed four earned runs on six hits in two innings. Even with a sour ending, it was a tremendous debut. 

It was tough for Dobnak to repeat his 2019 numbers, but he made ten starts in 2020 with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. Following the season, the Twins signed Dobnak to a five-year extension worth $9.25 million, which includes club options for 2026-28. The deal can be worth nearly $30 million if all three options are exercised. At the time, it was an interesting move by the Twins because Dobnak was going to be under team control for multiple seasons. In hindsight, the deal doesn't look good from the Twins' perspective because Dobnak has been injured over the last two seasons. However, over those two seasons, he made a combined $1.5 million.

Dobnak's finger injury is complex, especially for a pitcher that relies heavily on a sinker. He has ruptured two of the pulleys in his finger, which means he relies on three instead of five. This causes pain and stiffness when he is trying to throw. His rehab process has been frustrating as he attempted to come back before suffering another setback. Dobnak made 11 appearances in the minors last season, but there were some control problems as he learned to pitch through the injury. He posted a 5.8 BB/9, significantly higher than his career average of 2.3 BB/9.

In September, the Twins placed Dobnak on outright waivers to clear his spot from the 40-man roster. His focus for the 2023 campaign is to show he is healthy, and it will be an added bonus if he makes it back to the big-league level. He will start the year at Triple-A, and his pitching repertoire will be altered from what fans have previously seen. His slider and sinker are the two pitches to keep an eye on this spring. Previously, he has thrown his sinker has been his most-used pitch, but that might need to change as he compensates for his injury. His slider was the talk of spring training in 2021 before his finger injury reared its ugly head. Will this pitch be his ticket back to the big leagues?

Do you think Dobnak will return to the big-league level in 2023? What kind of impact can he have on the pitching staff? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[DJL44]

Will he start the season at AAA? There isn't any room for him in the rotation if they keep Winder and Sands as starters.

There are no expectations for Randy Dobnak this season. He's an afterthought.

[CRF]

Imo...anything we can get from him would be a plus. I don't think he figures into any plans for this season. He's WAY down the list right now. I hope he can make it back from the finger injury, but I doubt he jumps any of the pitchers we already have.

[rwilfong86]

He's a AAA level relief pitcher.

[Blyleven2011]

He's under team control  and most likely won't walk away from it  , twins can place him anywhere they like ...

If he is pitching well he deserves another shot but it might not be this year as a starting pitcher unless there is an abundance of injuries , could possibly see some relief in 2023 in the MLB ...

[GKuehl]

Feels similar to the spot Smeltzer was in last year — a long way from the bigs. Smeltzer got a shot (and performed pretty admirably), but it took a glut of injuries for him to get a chance. 
 

With the added rotation depth this year, it would probably take 6 or more SP injuries for Dobnak to get a spot start this year. 

[old nurse]

The team has gone through about 35 pitchers every year. Players will get their shot at a cup of coffee. For Dobnak the chance will come if the pitches come back. If the hand remains too stiff he is on to his next career. 

[rv78]

A trip down the same path of Tyler Duffey would be fine with me. Over-rated, and yes, over-paid cup of coffee who's ship has sailed. Move on please. 5 years at $9.25M isn't much in todays world of over-paid atheletes but in this case it's still like pouring money down a rat hole. 

[theBOMisthebomb]

His career has hit rock bottom. There might still be some potential for Dobnak to contribute at the big league level. Anything he adds as a positive going forward is an unexpected bonus for the Twins.

[roger]

Such an interesting story.  How can you not cheer for this young man?  Does he find a way back?  Count me among those who are cheering for him.

[adjacent]

From the article: "Dobnak's finger injury is complex, especially for a pitcher that relies heavily on a sinker. He has ruptured two of the pulleys in his finger, which means he relies on three instead of five"

Then, he is not healthy. He is trying to pitch nursing his injury the best he can. So, unfortunately, the chances that he will be back are really low.

[mikelink45]

He got a nice contract - more than independent ball players can dream of.  He seems like a great guy.  So my prediction is that he pitches out his contract in the minor leagues, saves money and enjoys a great life with lots of stories to share.

[JoeCool]

I think he might be a Carl Willis style middle reliever.  He doesn’t have the lights out velocity to his pitches, but a lot of movement and deception. I would be all for us converting him to a relief role. If he starts the season in AAA and gets a track record going I see a chance.  
 

I think Bailey Ober, Josh Winder, Simeon Woods-Richardson, Jordan Balazovic, Connor Prielipp, Louis Varland, even Marco Raya have so much more upside as a starter than him.  
 

Within that list above I see ace potential. It’s a very deep list of starters with upside and I expect a few of them to be dominant relievers if they don’t make it as a starter. 
 

I am all for Dobnak to be Carl Willis 2.0. For those of you that don’t remember Willis was our second most dominant relief option to Rick Aguilera in our last title team in 1991. There is a place for that in a bullpen today as a change of pace to our 95mph + relievers. 

[miracleb]

A spot start once in a while(because we all know it will be needed at some point.)  I am still hopeful he can at least be "that guy."

[Rosterman]

I would love to see him comeback as long relief.

That said, I hope he is not Joe Mays or Nick Blackburn 2.0.

[James]

3 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

I would love to see him comeback as long relief.

This is what I think to be his most realistic path back to the majors.  If he can't get all his pitches back, then maybe he's just going to be a minor league guy. I'm hoping he reclaims some of that mojo and ends up a decent bullpen piece.

[Johnny Ringo]

Randy seems to be too nice of a guy to make jokes. But if he ever misbehaves, I've got some teed up.

Mauer is going into the Twins' HOF this year. Rumor has it that Dobnak's agent is going in in 2024. 

[dxpavelka]

1 hour ago, GKuehl said:

Feels similar to the spot Smeltzer was in last year — a long way from the bigs. Smeltzer got a shot (and performed pretty admirably), but it took a glut of injuries for him to get a chance. 
 

With the added rotation depth this year, it would probably take 6 or more SP injuries for Dobnak to get a spot start this year. 

Luckily, something like THAT will NEVER happen..

[dxpavelka]

I just want to know, has there ever been a player who went undrafted after his senior season in college that got to the big leagues quicker than Dobnak?

[saviking]

I have no expectations for Dobnak. That said, he's a great kid and a great story. I kind of like that he parlayed part of one good season into lifechanging money .. LOL

[Dman]

Looking back at his stats he never was a strike out pitcher he was more of a pitch to contact pitcher with batters driving it into the ground.  The only problem he had IMO was he had no put away pitch.  Guys would foul lots of stuff off and he could end up with high pitch counts and long innings.  

If he can't use the sinker anymore I have no idea who he is as a pitcher.  Many players have reinvented themselves to great success in this game and Randy is a worker so I wouldn't count him out.  If the finger holds up I like his chances in the pen.  With his finger issue can't see him putting extra strain on it starting.

As far as the money goes when he came in that spring he looked like he had found his K pitch and might be a dominant pitcher.  The contract was a small risk for potential great gain for the Twins.  Randy had beaten the odds all the way to MLB it didn't seem prudent to bet against him.  Injuries happen to lots of players and this contract risked peanuts compared to most.  I didn't think it was terrible at the time in fact I thought Dobnak might be selling himself short. So far it has worked out better for Randy than the Twins but that happens all the time in baseball especially with pitchers (just ask the Dodgers).

I bet against Randy pretty much all the way up the ladder and ridiculed the Twins for using him so much in A ball and then he took off.  One thing I learned was never bet against Randy Dobnak.  This time I am betting on the comeback.

[eric grundmeier]

Knuckleball

[MTV]

At this point, find out if there’s anything there. Try him out as a starter in Saint Paul and see if he succeeds. If not, push him to a reliever role and try him there. Unless the twins somehow get more injured than last year he’s likely out of the picture in 2023. If he can prove to be a strong starter or elite reliever in AAA, he could factor in as a part of the depth chart in 2024, but he has to show he can handle a full year. I would say if he has an ERA over 3.50 as a starter or an ERA over 2.50 as a reliever than he doesn’t deserve a call up.

[DJL44]

47 minutes ago, Dman said:

If he can't use the sinker anymore I have no idea who he is as a pitcher.  Many players have reinvented themselves to great success in this game and Randy is a worker so I wouldn't count him out.

It's hard to throw any movement pitch if you can't use your fingers effectively. It's impossible to be an effective major league pitcher without a movement pitch.

[joefish]

I will be surprised if we see him pitch again. I have doubted him all the way. 

[Ricky Vaughn]

He's not on the 40 man. That's a big hurdle, but if he's effective and looks like he can help, the FO will find him a spot. If they have to pay him he'll get a shot if he looks good.

[Nine of twelve]

Give him a chance to start in AAA. If there's no room in the St. Paul rotation start him in AA. He needs some time to see what's there. Then depending on how things go make any appropriate moves.

[Doctor Gast]

Could he ever regain these 2 ruptured pulleys in his finger? If not I doubt it but hope he can regain his old form of high GB rate. Rockies could use his caliber of pitching, I no longer think the Twins will.

[darin617]

Maybe they try converting him into a relief pitcher this year. He is owed $7,750,000 through 2026 so there is no reason to just cut him and move on. It's not big money but if he can come back it's worth hanging onto him especially since he's not taking a spot on the 40 man roster.

[Parfigliano]

4 hours ago, theBOMisthebomb said:

His career has hit rock bottom. There might still be some potential for Dobnak to contribute at the big league level. Anything he adds as a positive going forward is an unexpected bonus for the Twins.

His only comeback route to MLB is as a relief pitcher.