4 Players the Twins Need to Outperform Their Steamer Projections

[Cody Christie]

Project systems can be flawed in overvaluing some players and not valuing others as highly. For the Twins to be successful, these four players need to outperform their projections.

Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Leading into the 2023 season, fans can analyze different projection systems to predict the performance of any big-league team. For this article, Steamer projections will be featured. According to MLB.com, Steamer uses past performance and aging trends to develop a future projection for players. It also uses pitch-tracking data to help forecast pitchers. 

Steamer projects the Twins' top five position players as Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Jose Miranda, and Christian Vazquez. On the mound, the top five pitchers are all starters, including Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, and Kenta Maeda. It would be easy to target any of those players and say they need to outperform their projections, but let's dig deeper into the roster. 

Joey Gallo, OF
2023 Steamer Projection: .188/.313/.393, 105 wRC+, 2.7 Off, -6.3 Def, 1.1 WAR
The Twins signed Gallo to a one-year, $11 million deal in hopes of him returning to the All-Star caliber player he was in previous seasons. He's coming off his worst professional season, as he posted a .638 OPS and a 79 OPS+ over 126 games for the Yankees and the Dodgers. His projected slugging percentage is 76 points below his career average, which is one area he will need to outperform his projection. His defensive total also seems extremely low for a player known as a strong defender. Last year, he posted a -1.3 Def, his lowest total since 2017. 

Trevor Larnach, OF
2023 Steamer Projection: .225/.306/.373, 96 wRC+, -1.9 OF, -5.3 Def, 0.3 WAR
Over the last two seasons, Larnach has dealt with multiple injuries, including a hand injury and a core muscle injury. When healthy, his powerful bat looks like it should be penciled into the middle of the Twins line-up. In 16 games last June, he posted a 1.077 OPS with six doubles and three home runs. Twins Daily's most recent roster projection has Larnach pegged to start the year at Triple-A. He will have to prove he is healthy and hit his way back to the big-league roster. Injuries will impact the Twins' outfield, and he needs to be ready when promoted. 

Jorge Alcala, RP
2023 Steamer Projection: 54 IP, 3.75 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.2 WAR
Alcala missed nearly all of the 2022 season after having arthroscopic debridement surgery on his throwing elbow. In 2021, Alcala posted a 3.92 ERA with 9.2 K/9 over 59 2/3 innings while earning opportunities in a late-inning role. The Twins didn't add anyone to the bullpen this winter, which makes Alcala's return even more critical. He's already produced more than 0.2 WAR in multiple big-league seasons, so that projection is the most significant discrepancy. If Alcala can outperform his projections, he may help to revitalize a core bullpen group that struggled through much of the first half of 2022. 

Jorge Lopez, RP
2023 Steamer Projection: 70 IP, 3.58 ERA, 9.2 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 0.4 WAR
Steamer projects Lopez to provide the fourth-highest WAR total among Twins relievers. It's reasonable to think that the Twins would be disappointed in that result. Minnesota surrendered four pitching prospects (including Cade Povich) because they felt Lopez could upgrade the bullpen for multiple seasons. He struggled after the trade with a 4.37 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP in 23 appearances. The Twins won't follow a traditional closer model, but Lopez will likely get save opportunities, primarily if Jhoan Duran is used in high-leverage situations earlier than the ninth inning. 

Which player is most likely to outperform their Steamer projection? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[Parfigliano]

Larnach and dare I say Gallo OPS comically low predictions.

[sweetmusicviola16]

I honestly don't know what more to expect from these 4 players than the projections they gave. I'm not real big on predicting what guys will do but these projections seem to line up fairly well with what these players have done in their careers thus far.

Lopez: Prior to 2022 Lopez by and large has stunk. The projections are saying to me that they don't feel he is as good as he was in April-July of last year and they state that he maybe better than his August and September that he put forth here. Overall numbers look reasonable to me and if I was the FO I'd swing the deal for Lopez every time considering what we gave up.

Alcala: The projections are right in line with what he has put up in game play during his brief career thus far. Frankly if his numbers in 2023 are the projections I'd be fine with that.

Larnach: What can we even say about him? He's done next to nothing since 2019 in AA ball. He's been injured alot and when he has played the numbers have been left wanting. I'd call 2023 a make or break year for him. He should start in St.Paul and if he was anyone other than Trevor Larnach we wouldn't even be discussing him and we'd be checking him out from Wichita. Same with Kiriloff, lets be honest.

Gallo: The average and OBP seem to not be out of reason. The slugging %? May well be low. But maybe their thought is he's older and on the decline. 

[High heat]

I believe Gallo is going to have a giant season.  The no shift pull happy Gallo helps his average tremendously ad he can just focus on hitting the ball hard.  Which will help him between the ears.  
 

boy I hope Jorge Lopez isn’t that bad.  Gave up a lot for him that’s worst the the Matt Capp trade yr ago

[Minderbinder]

Why are we stopping at four?

[Doctor Gast]

I'm not a firm believer of these projections. Projecting players by averaging their past stats without taking into consideration existing conditions are inaccurate. For example IMO 2020 should be thrown out because it's a false indicator of a regular season. Also Lopez's transformation from SP to RP, his past history as a SP isn't a true indicator of him being a RP. The shift ban, time clock & other rules will have significant impact on the players, how is that incorporated?

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Honestly, it would be fine if these were the guys that were outperforming the projections, but it really doesn't matter where the production comes from.  A Cy Youngish season from one of the pitchers (Lopez? Gray? Ryan?) or a big offensive season from one of the hitters (a 140 game season from Buxton, Kepler remembers how to hit the ball?) would have a big impact on the team's overall chances.  These four just seem like guys who could likely be poised to outperform, or maybe we just don't want them to be as bad as their projections.  I will say however, that this might be Larnach's (and maybe Kiriloff's) last shot if they want to stay in the mix for playing time.  If we hadn't seen such flashes of potential in the minors, we wouldn't be continuing to give them more opportunities this year. 

[DocBauer]

Not disagreeing with this list. I think it's accurate. But it should ABSOLUTELY be 5 guys with Kirilloff added.

GALLO: While I'm ambivalent about signing Gallo, I can see the reasoning. Is it possible he's just slipping, the league has figured him out, etc? Yes. But his production and power and OPS were well over .800 with Texas his previous 5yrs, despite one poor year. A look at his production shows a cliff once he was traded to the Yankees, and then the Dodgers to end 2022. The obvious discrepancies seem to indicate to me he was just never comfortable and never fit in. He now has a "reset" in Minnesota. I'm hesitant to offer expectations for his production in 2023, but I think it's very possible he reverts back to his Texas days and is suddenly back at his career numbers there where he still doesn't "hit", but has a very nice OB% and big time power and is a real threat in a 5-7 spot in the lineup. Here's hoping!

ALCALA: He's got to prove he's healthy and BACK. IIRC, his late season performance in 2021 wasn't just experience, but also a result to him adjusting a 3rd offering. I believe it was a form of change, but can't recall exactly. He looked pretty good to begin 2022 before his elbow acted up. The proposed numbers offered up would be just fine as the 5th-6th option in the pen. But I think he's got way more potential than that. I would expect solid numbers initially, and then get stronger, more confident, and better as the season goes on and he dusts off some rust. 

JORGE LOPEZ: I doubt he's as good as he was with Baltimore in early 2022. Those were HOF kind of numbers! But his pure stuff should make him better than his time with the Twins. I find it humorous that so many key on his years as a failed SP at the ML level. He's not that guy any longer. He's now a talented arm with some great stuff who has ONE YEAR converting to the pen. The STUFF has never been in question. While a RH and not a LH, I keep thinking about Perkins. Some great stuff, expectations, but poor results as a SP. He became a stud All Star reliever, but it still took him a year or so to adapt and figure it out. Lopez made the transition, but also had to pack up his stuff and move to a new team/city half way through his season. With time now to settle in and reset himself with the Twins, his projections aren't terrible, but I'd expect a lot more.

LARNACH/KIRILLOFF: Let's just be honest, these 2 have a HUGE potential impact on 2023 and the future. BOTH were top draft choices and TOP prospects. BOTH offer quality bats, decent OB, and power and run production potential. BOTH seem to offer good split production as well. It's really easy for someone to look at the production numbers from each and be pessimistic. BUT, when you watch and look/read what they did when HEALTHY over the last 2yrs, they BOTH basically raked, as hoped and expected.

Where they diverge is the injury history. Larnach hurt his hand, and then had an abdominal issue. There is nothing chronic in regard to Larnach. If Larnach has spent the remainder of 2022 and his offseason just working on his core, he could be ready for a breakout as an OF/DH until he takes over a corner spot full time in the near future. Kirilloff is in a very different situation with a chronic issue that MAYBE/HOPEFULLY is fixed now. Early reports are he's ready to go with soreness, but not pain, as he just gets his wrist back to "normal" post surgery. And you'd have to expect that. 

I expect Larnach to be 100% and be a difference maker, though still inexperienced and not hitting his ceiling just yet.

I expect Kirilloff to be nursed a little bit and take 75 swings daily instead of 100 just to get his wrist adjusted and ready. Just giving him time to build up and adjust. If his procedure has worked, he's a difference maker for 2023 and beyond, even if it takes him a little while to get in to a confident groove.

[Melissa]

Great analysis, Dr. Bauer!

[mikelink45]

These projections actually seem pretty well in line with my personal thoughts (I don't make projections).  I am happy to see someone else feel that Gallo's defense is not gold glove like so many argue.  I have been too outspoken on too many forums about Gallo so I will just absorb the fact that this is my expectation too and I am sorry if they and I are both right.

Alcala is hard to project.  Injured pitchers have such different roads back to recovery.  If he can move forward from his previous time on the mound I expect him too be much better than this and much better than the last projection - Lopez.  I can see Alcala move up next to Duran in the rankings if his recovery is finished.

Lopez is a puzzle - 1/2 good year is all he has to make us think he will be good.  I hope he can find that magic again, but I would not project it.

Larnach is a sad story.  Like Lewis I kept thinking "this will be his year" and like Lewis we keep seeing injuries that take him out of the lineup.  Does he stay healthy.  Does he reach what we dream for him?  I don't know how you project from his last two years. 

[miracleb]

Alcala (someone can clarify if he has options left) will probably be at AAA to start the season.  Injured all last season....he will need to re-establish himself.  I would anticipate a rough Spring training due to all the time off..... but he will eventually be able to prove himself again.

[sweetmusicviola16]

1 hour ago, miracleb said:

Alcala (someone can clarify if he has options left) will probably be at AAA to start the season.  Injured all last season....he will need to re-establish himself.  I would anticipate a rough Spring training due to all the time off..... but he will eventually be able to prove himself again.

I don't know, he sure looks pretty darn sharp in the short video attached to the article.

[JD-TWINS]

On 2/18/2023 at 5:52 PM, DocBauer said:

Not disagreeing with this list. I think it's accurate. But it should ABSOLUTELY be 5 guys with Kirilloff added.

GALLO: While I'm ambivalent about signing Gallo, I can see the reasoning. Is it possible he's just slipping, the league has figured him out, etc? Yes. But his production and power and OPS were well over .800 with Texas his previous 5yrs, despite one poor year. A look at his production shows a cliff once he was traded to the Yankees, and then the Dodgers to end 2022. The obvious discrepancies seem to indicate to me he was just never comfortable and never fit in. He now has a "reset" in Minnesota. I'm hesitant to offer expectations for his production in 2023, but I think it's very possible he reverts back to his Texas days and is suddenly back at his career numbers there where he still doesn't "hit", but has a very nice OB% and big time power and is a real threat in a 5-7 spot in the lineup. Here's hoping!

ALCALA: He's got to prove he's healthy and BACK. IIRC, his late season performance in 2021 wasn't just experience, but also a result to him adjusting a 3rd offering. I believe it was a form of change, but can't recall exactly. He looked pretty good to begin 2022 before his elbow acted up. The proposed numbers offered up would be just fine as the 5th-6th option in the pen. But I think he's got way more potential than that. I would expect solid numbers initially, and then get stronger, more confident, and better as the season goes on and he dusts off some rust. 

JORGE LOPEZ: I doubt he's as good as he was with Baltimore in early 2022. Those were HOF kind of numbers! But his pure stuff should make him better than his time with the Twins. I find it humorous that so many key on his years as a failed SP at the ML level. He's not that guy any longer. He's now a talented arm with some great stuff who has ONE YEAR converting to the pen. The STUFF has never been in question. While a RH and not a LH, I keep thinking about Perkins. Some great stuff, expectations, but poor results as a SP. He became a stud All Star reliever, but it still took him a year or so to adapt and figure it out. Lopez made the transition, but also had to pack up his stuff and move to a new team/city half way through his season. With time now to settle in and reset himself with the Twins, his projections aren't terrible, but I'd expect a lot more.

LARNACH/KIRILLOFF: Let's just be honest, these 2 have a HUGE potential impact on 2023 and the future. BOTH were top draft choices and TOP prospects. BOTH offer quality bats, decent OB, and power and run production potential. BOTH seem to offer good split production as well. It's really easy for someone to look at the production numbers from each and be pessimistic. BUT, when you watch and look/read what they did when HEALTHY over the last 2yrs, they BOTH basically raked, as hoped and expected.

Where they diverge is the injury history. Larnach hurt his hand, and then had an abdominal issue. There is nothing chronic in regard to Larnach. If Larnach has spent the remainder of 2022 and his offseason just working on his core, he could be ready for a breakout as an OF/DH until he takes over a corner spot full time in the near future. Kirilloff is in a very different situation with a chronic issue that MAYBE/HOPEFULLY is fixed now. Early reports are he's ready to go with soreness, but not pain, as he just gets his wrist back to "normal" post surgery. And you'd have to expect that. 

I expect Larnach to be 100% and be a difference maker, though still inexperienced and not hitting his ceiling just yet.

I expect Kirilloff to be nursed a little bit and take 75 swings daily instead of 100 just to get his wrist adjusted and ready. Just giving him time to build up and adjust. If his procedure has worked, he's a difference maker for 2023 and beyond, even if it takes him a little while to get in to a confident groove.

Doc - I get the ambivalence with the Gallo signing & probably not worth too much energy here - you’re being nice with “the league’s figured him out….” comment. With the .199 career BA I don’t know if he’s ever figured out the league?

……………

Alcala is talented but too on the edge for me without a month or three in St Paul……would prefer he starts across the river with a FA signing of Hand!

Hoping to see LF split 80 games Gordon - 50 games Larnach - 30 games Gallo……….80 games for Larnach at DH.

Kirilof should get 110 games at 1B …..Slow with Kirilof but still e….Gallo there 20 games……..Miranda 30 games.

……………….

Lopez has been in the SHOW essentially, since 2018. I don’t think he’s very good between the ears……sure seems to have a good pitch mix & velocity to succeed. First year as a reliever in 2022.

ERA’s - 5.03, 6.33, 6.69, 6.07, & 2.54 in ‘22 (4.37 in MN) Not sure he should be our choice to make the club before Pagan……that’s a BIG SHIFT for me!!

Pagan numbers since 2017 - ERA’s 3.22, 4.35, 2.31, 4.50, 4.83, & 4.43. Equally as good of stuff as compared to López.

I don’t need to see either of these guys progress from our 6th-8th guy in the Pen …….not needed to be high leverage guys. Just keep us in the game ………keep the ERA’s under 3.75 and walks in a normal range of 2  - 3 walks/inning. HR down to 1 per 9 innings. If one of them can be in Jax company we’ll be in great shape.

[Twins33]

On 2/19/2023 at 8:08 AM, miracleb said:

Alcala (someone can clarify if he has options left) will probably be at AAA to start the season.  Injured all last season....he will need to re-establish himself.  I would anticipate a rough Spring training due to all the time off..... but he will eventually be able to prove himself again.

Alcala has 3 options remaining.