The Twins Can Be Patient in Waiting to Add Their Missing Piece

[Alex Boxwell]

Spring is around the corner, and so are projections for the 2023 season. The Twins are better, and they are healthy (for now). What is holding them back from being a consensus contender for a World Series?

 

With players now in camp, it’s always fun to see what experts say about your favorite ball club. The Twins have improved the roster from last season. That’s an objective truth. However, they are projected to win between 80-87 ball games, depending on where you look. So what is the squeaky wheel that needs the grease?

Health was the clear hitch in our giddy-up last year. The depth of this team has been addressed to the point that we could see another trade of a big-league player before the start of the regular season. Our cup runneth over with solid big league position players, and some would argue with arms as well, a far cry from what we saw last season.

There has been plenty of clamoring for a left-handed bullpen arm. I fancied what I saw from Jovani Moran last year, and Caleb Thielbar was a big reason the wheels stayed on the bus as long as they did in the second half last season. I don’t see a huge need for a left-handed arm, but after last season’s horror show, finding another veteran southpaw to add to the mix would be welcomed. Especially with how we handle our starters.

The other move that everyone wants to see is that we finally add the ace. We declared our six-year window started when Carlos Correa signed his deal. The league knows that, and other general managers can follow what’s happening. The Twins are a prime candidate for overspending on an expiring contract of an ace.

The grease needed for this Twins team to compete for a championship is that ace. With that being said, sacrificing our depth and the health of this six-year window by trading away future key pieces would be a grave error. How it needs to unfold is we go into the season with roughly the roster we have now or a small move or two.

Waiting gives our roster a chance to play out and organically have guys win or lose jobs at crowded positions. It also gives time for the unfortunate reality of the injury situation to play out. The idea of jumping at the first top-tier starter being shopped is very seductive, but we need to be more calculated than that.

Sacrificing years four through six to go all in on year one of our window is not a calculated gamble; it’s just gambling.

We can see this rearing its ugly head with the Yankees and Frankie Montas—the arm we all coveted at this time last year. If the ‘where Frankie?’ meme (which was fantastic by the way) paid off; we’d be much worse off in the starting pitching department, with Montas likely being shelved for the year due to shoulder surgery.

The Front Office isn’t in the business of making moves to make moves, it has to be the move.

The Twins’ time is now, and another move is coming. They need to keep playing their hand as best they can and wait to make the move. It hedges their bet against the health situation and ‘The Gallo Gamble’ (patent pending). 

Correa does not sign with the Twins if they don’t have a conversation about winning a championship. The cherry on top of this roster and the wild offseason would be the ace, but we will have to wait for mid-summer Christmas, the trade deadline.

 

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[Hubie29]

We still don't have enough bats.  Lineup is weak, with Kiriloff, Kepler, Gallo, Gordon, Larnach etc., etc.  I wouldn't worry so much about pitching.  We are going to have too many games where we are going to struggle to score.  We need one more BIG bat in the middle of the lineup. 

[miracleb]

I think Kiriloff and Larnach are finally going to live up to their first round pick status!

[Aaron Weiland]

1 hour ago, Hubie29 said:

We still don't have enough bats.  Lineup is weak, with Kiriloff, Kepler, Gallo, Gordon, Larnach etc., etc.  I wouldn't worry so much about pitching.  We are going to have too many games where we are going to struggle to score.  We need one more BIG bat in the middle of the lineup. 

The lineup is in fact not "weak". If AK and Larnach are healthy, they are above average bats. AK especially, he could be a 130 wRC+ guy if right and hitting near his ceiling. Gordon was an above average bat last year. Kepler/Gallo are lotto tickets, if one of them clicks that's a huge win, but with their defense if one of them even grade out league average at the plate, that's a good player.

Buxton - Polanco - Correa - Miranda - Healthy Kirilloff is the best top half of any lineup in the AL Central, and top 10 in the MLB. And we're not even talking about the impact Julien/Lee/Lewis could have this year. One more big bat would be a nice-to-have, and would put them more on par with the big juggernaut/top 5 teams like the Astros, but they don't need one more bat to be a top 10 offense this year. Hell, they were almost a top 10 offense last year trotting out the likes of Celly, Palacios, Contreras and Cave nearly every day in the second half.

The question isn't talent, it's health. 

[Alex Boxwell]

2 hours ago, Hubie29 said:

We still don't have enough bats.  Lineup is weak, with Kiriloff, Kepler, Gallo, Gordon, Larnach etc., etc.  I wouldn't worry so much about pitching.  We are going to have too many games where we are going to struggle to score.  We need one more BIG bat in the middle of the lineup. 

I'd love to bring in a big bat but I don't think that's what would push this team over the top. It would be a nice piece but this lineup is going to score IF (big if) they stay relatively healthy.

I think Mitch Haniger would've been a great add as a right handed run producer at a semi- discount rate. Even then, the bomba squad won a 100. The bats aren't going to be what gets it done.

[Tjwalsh65]

I think we should call it the Gallo Gambit.

[Alex Boxwell]

1 minute ago, Tjwalsh65 said:

I think we should call it the Gallo Gambit.

Haha someone's gotta make that a tshirt

[South Dakota Tom]

2 hours ago, Aaron Weiland said:

Buxton - Polanco - Correa - Miranda - Healthy Kirilloff is the best top half of any lineup in the AL Central,

Gallo belongs in that list as a candidate for top half of the order (whether that's leading off or clean-up in some situations, he makes runs happen).  So does Gordon, or Farmer when he starts games versus LH pitchers.  Feels like versatility and depth to me.  I see so much talent (with all the normal caveats), just excited for this time of year and the hope I have for this team.

[wsnydes]

I think they're more than just a piece away from being legitimate contenders for anything aside from the division, but I tend to agree that they can afford to be patient when it comes to making a move for the division.  If some of the young guys can stay healthy and produce, they may surprise some people, but I'm still lery of what they can do in October.  But with this division, yes, they can afford to wait.  

[Alex Boxwell]

54 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

I think they're more than just a piece away from being legitimate contenders for anything aside from the division, but I tend to agree that they can afford to be patient when it comes to making a move for the division.  If some of the young guys can stay healthy and produce, they may surprise some people, but I'm still lery of what they can do in October.  But with this division, yes, they can afford to wait.  

That's fair. I think if some of the young players take a step forward or even just Kepler or Gallo recapture some of the 2019 magic that they're an arm away. 
 

The pitching is relatively deep but lacks an element of being able to dominate outside of Duran. 

[wsnydes]

11 minutes ago, Alex Boxwell said:

That's fair. I think if some of the young players take a step forward or even just Kepler or Gallo recapture some of the 2019 magic that they're an arm away. 
 

The pitching is relatively deep but lacks an element of being able to dominate outside of Duran. 

Agreed on the pitching   I'm still questioning whether they can hang with a legit postseason pitching staff.  I'm not convinced of that yet.  Even then, they'd need to be healthy come playoff time.  Could they match up?  I wouldn't be shocked by it if they did, but I don't expect it.  And that's what is holding them back from something greater than winning a poor division, in my opinion.

[sun]

I'm not sure that an ace is even available this year that would take the Twins to contender status. But Rocco is on the hot seat since BARRING INJURIES, if he wants the credit for wins then he needs to also take the blame for losses. He simply needs to find a way to win with the players that we have. We can't blame it on aces that we don't have or necessarily need. We need to win with a combination of good ball play and good moves. Bench the players that don't produce and let someone else play. Rocco needs to act and players need to play like their jobs depend on it. Develop the winning formula, that's how pro baseball is supposed to work without any excuses.

[Reptevia]

Oh please. To pretend that this team is one piece away from even competing in this division is pure fantasy. I’ll be listening, but if everything falls into place, they finish 2nd. Prolonged injuries to any of Buxton, Correa or Polanco, and the season is probably lost. Beyond those three, there are legitimate question marks at every other position. They are either hoping for vast improvement and health or no regression to players who had a modicum of success in their short careers. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

3 hours ago, wsnydes said:

I think they're more than just a piece away from being legitimate contenders for anything aside from the division, but I tend to agree that they can afford to be patient when it comes to making a move for the division.  If some of the young guys can stay healthy and produce, they may surprise some people, but I'm still lery of what they can do in October.  But with this division, yes, they can afford to wait.  

Patience is a virtue.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Wonderful article Alex. Your proposed plan of patiently waiting for the trade deadline to approach in all it's majesty, and, if the Twins are serious contenders,  (which they should be with the deep, strong team that has been built in Minnesota) then  just before the trade deadline, trade for an ace to be used the first game of each series in the playoffs, sounds logical. But please do not trade any good pitching prospects and no catching prospects. (Not that the Twins have any catching prospects to trade anyway.) 

[Beast]

Correa did not sign here to win championships.  Give all the cliche press conference lip service you want.  He’d say the same thing if Pittsburgh or Kansas City signed him.  We were the only option offering the kind of money he was looking for.  That’s it.  He literally tried to sign with 2 other teams first.  I’ll take it, not going to complain, but it is what it is.

I’d like nothing more than this team winning a championship.  But, we’re nowhere near that right now.  Our payroll is maxed out (by choice).  We have no high-end starting pitching, and nothing in the “pipeline” that projects near the top end of a rotation.  A bunch of mediocre position player (outside if Correa and Buxton).  Half the 40 man has significant injury concerns.  According to the Athletic, we don’t have a single prospect in the top 50 (pitcher or hitter). 

Correa is a stat head.  He knows the numbers, odds, etc inside and out.  Hes been a champion.  He’s not looking at this roster and prospect pool and thinking about Championships.  That’s just not happening.

[Hubie29]

4 hours ago, Reptevia said:

Oh please. To pretend that this team is one piece away from even competing in this division is pure fantasy. I’ll be listening, but if everything falls into place, they finish 2nd. Prolonged injuries to any of Buxton, Correa or Polanco, and the season is probably lost. Beyond those three, there are legitimate question marks at every other position. They are either hoping for vast improvement and health or no regression to players who had a modicum of success in their short careers. 

Agree.  We traded our most consistent hitter from a team that really hasn't added any offense from last year.  We have about 3 proven hitters and then a bunch of question marks with hope.  As mentioned earlier, we could have used a Haniger type bat in the lineup.  Could be alot of 3-2, and 4-3 losses this year. 

[Mark G]

"The Twins have improved the roster from last season. That’s an objective truth."

Now that is not an opinion; it is not even a prediction.  It is a declaration.  A statement that someone feels in unarguable.  Now, I am not saying it is right or wrong, the jury is still out on that, but I am wondering how the roster has improved. 

I know I will probably miss something here, but my memory tells me we let one catcher go and signed another, who is predicted to be a little better with the bat.  We let go or traded our highest and third highest average hitters.  We lost two infielders and added two outfielders who have not hit at or near the two guys we lost, and we added a utility guy in Farmer.  We added a #2 or #3 pitcher, hoping he will rise above that even.  We appear to be standing pat with most of the rest of the pitching staff, and the rest of the position guys as well.  As Alex pointed out, there may be another move coming, but the declaration was the roster as it currently stands is improved.  Definitively.  It surely hasn't regressed, but how much has it truly improved?  Again, the jury is still a long ways from giving us a verdict, but I think a lot of people are counting on guys staying healthy more of the time and contributing what they couldn't before.  If they all are right, the declaration will probably be true.  But, as Beast pointed out, we have an enormous number of guys on the 40 who have yet to prove that will be the case.  I hope they do.  I hope the jury finds Alex innocent of any charges of over reaching.  I hope for a WS.  But, then, I do that every year.  😉

[Mark G]

16 hours ago, Aaron Weiland said:

The lineup is in fact not "weak". If AK and Larnach are healthy, they are above average bats. AK especially, he could be a 130 wRC+ guy if right and hitting near his ceiling. Gordon was an above average bat last year. Kepler/Gallo are lotto tickets, if one of them clicks that's a huge win, but with their defense if one of them even grade out league average at the plate, that's a good player.

Buxton - Polanco - Correa - Miranda - Healthy Kirilloff is the best top half of any lineup in the AL Central, and top 10 in the MLB. And we're not even talking about the impact Julien/Lee/Lewis could have this year. One more big bat would be a nice-to-have, and would put them more on par with the big juggernaut/top 5 teams like the Astros, but they don't need one more bat to be a top 10 offense this year. Hell, they were almost a top 10 offense last year trotting out the likes of Celly, Palacios, Contreras and Cave nearly every day in the second half.

The question isn't talent, it's health. 

"Hell, they were almost a top 10 offense last year"

And an offense that scored 3 runs or less in just over 48% of their games. (I know, because of the trotting out of the guys you mentioned, but still a concern)

Every one of those guys healthy and producing?  Definitely a top 10 offense.  Problem is, it hasn't happened yet.  I hope it does; I hope the optimism a lot of the folks are showing comes to fruition.  But forgive me if I am more than a little cautious.  

[Major League Ready]

5 hours ago, Mark G said:

"The Twins have improved the roster from last season. That’s an objective truth."

Now that is not an opinion; it is not even a prediction.  It is a declaration.  A statement that someone feels in unarguable.  Now, I am not saying it is right or wrong, the jury is still out on that, but I am wondering how the roster has improved. 

I know I will probably miss something here, but my memory tells me we let one catcher go and signed another, who is predicted to be a little better with the bat.  We let go or traded our highest and third highest average hitters.  We lost two infielders and added two outfielders who have not hit at or near the two guys we lost, and we added a utility guy in Farmer.  We added a #2 or #3 pitcher, hoping he will rise above that even.  We appear to be standing pat with most of the rest of the pitching staff, and the rest of the position guys as well.  As Alex pointed out, there may be another move coming, but the declaration was the roster as it currently stands is improved.  Definitively.  It surely hasn't regressed, but how much has it truly improved?  Again, the jury is still a long ways from giving us a verdict, but I think a lot of people are counting on guys staying healthy more of the time and contributing what they couldn't before.  If they all are right, the declaration will probably be true.  But, as Beast pointed out, we have an enormous number of guys on the 40 who have yet to prove that will be the case.  I hope they do.  I hope the jury finds Alex innocent of any charges of over reaching.  I hope for a WS.  But, then, I do that every year.  😉

No doubt, what was presented in this article does not constitute fact.  Predicting the success of a team requires a great deal of projection that is far from fact.  Further complicating the issue is that we all interpret the elements of these projections differently.  For example, most people would not measure the offensive value of a hitter purely by BA as you have here.  Miranda will replace Urshela at 3B.  He will likely not have as high of an average but will likely produce better than Urshela when measures that consider total production are utilized.  

IDK if I would call it “missing something” or just differing interpretations of what’s changed.  Kirilloff is a good example.  A healthy Kirilloff coming back as a huge boost.  You are apparently assuming he is not healthy or won’t perform.  I sway towards optimism here.  You see Farmer as strictly a utility guy.  I see a very good bat against LH pitching.  That’s a net gain over last year.  The biggest net gain of all could come from health.  We were playing our 6th, 7th, and 8th OFers a significant part of last year.  That I would say is something you are missing.

On the pitching side, we added two guys who are capable of being our best SP.  When is that not a net gain?  We added Jorge Lopez to the BP.  I guess that one is open to debate but it’s hard to imagine that he does not represent a gain.  Alcala is back.  Not sure how much he adds but it could be a considerable boost.

I will miss the entertainment Luis Arraez provided.  However, it just makes no sense to play Arraez in the field with the group they have now, especially considering Lewis and Lee are close.  As a DH, I would prefer they rotate Buxton, Correa, Larnach, and perhaps Julien.  Give Farmer the Abs he took against LH pitching.   Farmers OPS against LH pitching is 167 points higher than Arraez.  

I see this team as far from the same team that took the field last April.
 

[Alex Boxwell]

13 hours ago, sun said:

I'm not sure that an ace is even available this year that would take the Twins to contender status. But Rocco is on the hot seat since BARRING INJURIES, if he wants the credit for wins then he needs to also take the blame for losses. He simply needs to find a way to win with the players that we have. We can't blame it on aces that we don't have or necessarily need. We need to win with a combination of good ball play and good moves. Bench the players that don't produce and let someone else play. Rocco needs to act and players need to play like their jobs depend on it. Develop the winning formula, that's how pro baseball is supposed to work without any excuses.

Rocco does have a winning record as a manager. He's an easy target but not the issue.

[rv78]

Waiting isn't the problem. Having the FO trade away good prospects for broken down pitchers or 1 year wonders is. After-all, isn't that what the Twins did last year? How did trading for a broken Mahle help this team in 2022. How did trading for a 1/2 year wonder in Jorge Lopez help the Twins in 2022? How is signing a .190 hitter in Gallo to an $11M contract good when a Wallner, Cave, Larnach, Celestino, Gordon, Garlick can all hit for a higher average for pennies on the dollar compared to his contract? How many at bats will he and Kepler, who should have been traded due to his own ineptness at the plate, take away from the guys who can actually hit? I don't trust Rocco to be smart enough to use the guys that can hit on an everyday basis when Gallo and Kepler are the veterans getting paid the big bucks. They'll play way more than they should. 

You have more confidence in this FO making "the" move than a lot of us do. They haven't shown the ability yet to do "the" move that actually helps! Up to this point, I'm more afraid of what move they'll make.

[Alex Boxwell]

12 hours ago, Reptevia said:

Oh please. To pretend that this team is one piece away from even competing in this division is pure fantasy. I’ll be listening, but if everything falls into place, they finish 2nd. Prolonged injuries to any of Buxton, Correa or Polanco, and the season is probably lost. Beyond those three, there are legitimate question marks at every other position. They are either hoping for vast improvement and health or no regression to players who had a modicum of success in their short careers. 

The Twins a good team as it stands right now. Contending for an AL central crown is very realistic for this roster.

[Alex Boxwell]

5 minutes ago, rv78 said:

Waiting isn't the problem. Having the FO trade away good prospects for broken down pitchers or 1 year wonders is. After-all, isn't that what the Twins did last year? How did trading for a broken Mahle help this team in 2022. How did trading for a 1/2 year wonder in Jorge Lopez help the Twins in 2022? How is signing a .190 hitter in Gallo to an $11M contract good when a Wallner, Cave, Larnach, Celestino, Gordon, Garlick can all hit for a higher average for pennies on the dollar compared to his contract? How many at bats will he and Kepler, who should have been traded due to his own ineptness at the plate, take away from the guys who can actually hit? I don't trust Rocco to be smart enough to use the guys that can hit on an everyday basis when Gallo and Kepler are the veterans getting paid the big bucks. They'll play way more than they should. 

You have more confidence in this FO making "the" move than a lot of us do. They haven't shown the ability yet to do "the" move that actually helps! Up to this point, I'm more afraid of what move they'll make.

Mahle and Lopez will have huge impacts on the Twins success this. I'm willing to hold out on calling those moves disasters because I like their stuff a lot and in baseball terms it was a very small sample of both. 
 

Rocco still has a winning record as a manager after dealing with scraps last year. I'm a little tired of him as the scapegoat.

 

The moves this front office makes are master class compared to what the previous regime was doing. Give me Falvey and Levine everyday of the week over what we've seen in the past..

[tony&rodney]

I would echo most of what MLR has posted above. My optimism is much higher this year than it was a year ago.

There has been more than enough discussion about health. I would say simply suggest that players like Kirilloff, Polanco, Correa, and Buxton have the talent needed to carry this team, and there are sufficient numbers of others to supplement the lineup.

Houston has Yordan Alvarez and New York has Aaron Judge. Each are superstars. When individuals suggest adding a significant bat the player often mentioned was Mitch Hanniger, who is not exactly a superstar. Trading for Trouts and the sort just doesn't happen. Do we wait and sign Machado? I don't think so. 

I was not so hot on guys like  Gray and Mahle, but they were good additions. It was tough to see Petty get traded but I don't believe the Twins lost much in the other trades. Pablo Lopez makes the rotation much better.

The Twins are in a pretty good position right now, about as good as could be expected. Sano never became that superstar that we all hoped he would become, so we hope that the next group of guys deliver on their promise. 85 wins AL Central.

[Alex Boxwell]

11 hours ago, Beast said:

Correa did not sign here to win championships.  Give all the cliche press conference lip service you want.  He’d say the same thing if Pittsburgh or Kansas City signed him.  We were the only option offering the kind of money he was looking for.  That’s it.  He literally tried to sign with 2 other teams first.  I’ll take it, not going to complain, but it is what it is.

I’d like nothing more than this team winning a championship.  But, we’re nowhere near that right now.  Our payroll is maxed out (by choice).  We have no high-end starting pitching, and nothing in the “pipeline” that projects near the top end of a rotation.  A bunch of mediocre position player (outside if Correa and Buxton).  Half the 40 man has significant injury concerns.  According to the Athletic, we don’t have a single prospect in the top 50 (pitcher or hitter). 

Correa is a stat head.  He knows the numbers, odds, etc inside and out.  Hes been a champion.  He’s not looking at this roster and prospect pool and thinking about Championships.  That’s just not happening.

So given that take... why would the Twins give him the largest FA contract in the history of the franchise? To do Correa a favor? Keep the fans from rioting? Trick people into thinking we're not cheap?

Correa has a brand image, that is very important to most athletes. Even if he didn't believe this roster was good, I agree he wouldn't say that it sucks.

However, it makes no sense to sign him if the front office doesn't plan on pushing the budget and making the Correa/Buxton window as fruitful as possible. 

[JD-TWINS]

15 hours ago, South Dakota Tom said:

Gallo belongs in that list as a candidate for top half of the order (whether that's leading off or clean-up in some situations, he makes runs happen).  So does Gordon, or Farmer when he starts games versus LH pitchers.  Feels like versatility and depth to me.  I see so much talent (with all the normal caveats), just excited for this time of year and the hope I have for this team.

Farmer - Taylor - Jeffers - Miranda - Buxton - CC core group v. LH pitching 20-25% of the games.

Gordon - Larnach - Keppler - Gallo - Kiriloff core group v, RH pitching 75-80% of games.

Polanco hits from both sides.

I don’t see the weak offense concerns …….health yes…….hitting talent no.

[Hubie29]

2 hours ago, Mark G said:

"Hell, they were almost a top 10 offense last year"

And an offense that scored 3 runs or less in just over 48% of their games. (I know, because of the trotting out of the guys you mentioned, but still a concern)

Every one of those guys healthy and producing?  Definitely a top 10 offense.  Problem is, it hasn't happened yet.  I hope it does; I hope the optimism a lot of the folks are showing comes to fruition.  But forgive me if I am more than a little cautious.  

Bingo.  I just don't have the optimism I see others have. Terrible last year with runners in scoring position game after game.  Plus too lefty dominant.  Need a big right handed bat. Could have had Haniger for little or nothing. I hope the kids we have prove me wrong. 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Hubie29 said:

Bingo.  I just don't have the optimism I see others have. Terrible last year with runners in scoring position game after game.  Plus too lefty dominant.  Need a big right handed bat. Could have had Haniger for little or nothing. I hope the kids we have prove me wrong. 

Mitch Haniger signed a $43.5 million deal. Between his signing bonus (6 million) and 2023 salary (5 million) he will make 11 million this year. Makes 17 million next year. Then has an opt out or can accept 15.5 million in 2025. I'm not sure I'd call that "little or nothing." Especially when he's topped 100 games played in only 2 of his MLB seasons. 

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

2 hours ago, rv78 said:

Waiting isn't the problem. Having the FO trade away good prospects for broken down pitchers or 1 year wonders is. After-all, isn't that what the Twins did last year? How did trading for a broken Mahle help this team in 2022. How did trading for a 1/2 year wonder in Jorge Lopez help the Twins in 2022? How is signing a .190 hitter in Gallo to an $11M contract good when a Wallner, Cave, Larnach, Celestino, Gordon, Garlick can all hit for a higher average for pennies on the dollar compared to his contract? How many at bats will he and Kepler, who should have been traded due to his own ineptness at the plate, take away from the guys who can actually hit? I don't trust Rocco to be smart enough to use the guys that can hit on an everyday basis when Gallo and Kepler are the veterans getting paid the big bucks. They'll play way more than they should. 

You have more confidence in this FO making "the" move than a lot of us do. They haven't shown the ability yet to do "the" move that actually helps! Up to this point, I'm more afraid of what move they'll make.

We did not trade for Mahle and Jorge Lopez for only 2022.  You can say it was a bad trade for last season but we still have them for this season.

You can complain that Gallo is a bad contract and hitter (I'll give you some of that) and is worse than Cave, Celestineo, Garlick, etc. but what we did last year with the AAAA OF talent sure did not work nor inspire me when they came up with RISP.  It was time to try something new.

Lastly, I think many of you are looking at the lineup only and not taking into account the defense that we added.  DRS can immensely improve outcomes of games.

Let's see what we have before tanking the season based only on hitting.