Twins Daily 2023 Top Prospects: #1 Brooks Lee, SS

[jmlease1]

3 hours ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

Lee being forced to play 3rd with CC at short? How about the older guy with the bad wheel moving to 3rd to make room for the younger, healthier Lee?

How about leaving the guy who was a platinum glove winner 2 years ago stay at SS until he plays himself off it, especially not in favor of a guy who has never played SS as well as Correa? Don't get stuck on the supposed "bad wheel"; SF & NY were using that to try and forecast 8-10 years down the road, not 2-5.

Correa was willing to slide down to 3B in NY because they already had Lindor at SS. He's not going to move for Brooks Lee (or even Royce Lewis) any time soon.

There are real questions about whether Lee can stick at SS (making it in MLB as a SS is really really hard!), especially since his best tools are in his bat. It's no knock on Lee to think that his future is likely at 3B or 2B, and slotting him in at 3B in 2024 next to Correa could be the makings of a fantastic infield.

The only guys that are truly guaranteed of a starting job in MLB right now (assuming everyone is healthy) are Buxton, Correa, and Polanco. Everyone else is going to have to sing for their supper, even if their presumed to be the starter for now. Brooks Lee is one of the guys that's going to keep pushing everyone, and that's great. Maybe, just maybe he'll push Polanco too.

But Lee is also going to have to compete with Julien, Martin, and Lewis for a spot if/when it opens. Which is a good spot to be in too. Definitely eases any pain of trading Spenser Steer.

[Doctor Gast]

24 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

So much speed with Lewis...I have no idea why people want him at 2B.

With the shift ban a 2B man will need to have as much range as the SS. During the shift a 2B needed 0 range. Before Lewis's 2 torn ACL, I was probably Lewis biggest advocate in CF. But now any common full blast run with a leap & coming down on that leg with that force & angle would take Lewis out again. We have to not look at what looks good on paper & wake up to reality, keep Lewis away from the OF.

[Doctor Gast]

Just looking at what's on paper, it's easy to see why so many pundits have Lee so high in the rankings. Lee does everything well, but his bat is what really sticks out. A LH bat on the left side of the INF will be a very welcomed addition. I'm one of those who sees Lee as a fixture at 3B for many years. 

I see Lee with a superior bat & Lewis a superior glove. On paper looking at the tangibles it's very difficult to choose our #1 prospect, Lee could edge Lewis out but including the intangibles I choose Lewis.

[Mike Sixel]

16 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

With the shift ban a 2B man will need to have as much range as the SS. During the shift a 2B needed 0 range. Before Lewis's 2 torn ACL, I was probably Lewis biggest advocate in CF. But now any common full blast run with a leap & coming down on that leg with that force & angle would take Lewis out again. We have to not look at what looks good on paper & wake up to reality, keep Lewis away from the OF.

Can you point to any evidence OF is more dangerous than infield at all? I can't find any on line. 

[bird]

4 hours ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

Lee being forced to play 3rd with CC at short? How about the older guy with the bad wheel moving to 3rd to make room for the younger, healthier Lee?

My thoughts precisely. Perhaps the "plan" is to have Lewis, when ready, play all three spots (3B, SS, 2B), with the hope that Polanco has a healthy and productive season and Lee looks ready to go by September. Get a nice prospect haul for Polanco next winter, move Correa to 3B to protect his health, and have the better SS between Lewis and Lee get the nod there while the other slides over to 2B. Miranda becomes the DH and part time 1B when Kirilloff needs an off-day.

[miracleb]

Lee being forced to play 3rd with CC at short? How about the older guy with the bad wheel moving to 3rd to make room for the younger, healthier Lee?

**************************************

If Correa moves to third in the next couple of years, we WAY OVER paid for him!

We can't move Correa to 3rd because he makes too much to play there? Did I infer incorrectly?

**************************************

Yes, you infer correctly.  His value is as a shortstop.   His stats as a shortstop are awesome!!  His stats don't translate nearly as well as a 3rd baseman(middle of the pack?)

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, miracleb said:

Lee being forced to play 3rd with CC at short? How about the older guy with the bad wheel moving to 3rd to make room for the younger, healthier Lee?

**************************************

If Correa moves to third in the next couple of years, we WAY OVER paid for him!

We can't move Correa to 3rd because he makes too much to play there? Did I infer incorrectly?

**************************************

Yes, you infer correctly.  His value is as a shortstop.   His stats as a shortstop are awesome!!  His stats don't translate nearly as well as a 3rd baseman(middle of the pack?)

to be clear, if Lewis is a better SS, they should do what? Also, why does it matter?

[miracleb]

It is Lee we are talking about.  And if Lewis is a better shortstop, you don't sign Correa for 6 years.  And....Lewis.... is not a better shortstop.  And....Lee..... is not a better shortstop.  Whew...glad we cleared that up.

:)

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Rosterman said:

Just look. Lee is 22, entering his first real season of pro ball. Austin Martin is 23 (soon to be 24) entering his third season. Royce Lewis is also only 23 and is on the verge of being a Twins regular. 

All three bring possible solid stats to the games, they just need to find a position of play...besides shortstop.

And, right now, all three could comfortably play a full season of minor league ball with no rush to the major leagues, giving the Twins to make hardcore decisions on the future of Kepler and Polanco. Gallo is a one-year fix. Kirilloff and Larnach will need to produce or be jumped. And miranda could easily move to first base, or jsut be a designated hitter who can also play the field.

Add in names like Julien, Wallner, Helman and the Twins seem pretty well set for the near future.

All they need is a catching prospect, although hopes are that Vasquez and Jeffers can hold down the fort for at least wo seasons. Camargo, Oliver, Isola are all guys to watch as backstops.

And looking 3-5 years out, names like Mercedes, Urbina and Rodriguez in the outfield, and Miller, Schobel, Severino, Salas, Acuna all show promise in the infield. The only weakness, perhaps, is future first basemen.

You gotta like the Twins prospects, once they can figure out positions to play.

Lewis (who I give a little break based on his injuries but if he isn't good enough to force his way to the majors this year, well...) turns 24 on June 5, Martin on March 23, and Julien April 30th, Wallner just turned 25, and Helman turns 27 may 23rd.

None of these guys can afford another year in the minors if they ever want to be regular starter in the majors.

I am not saying they can't be good major league players, guys that can't get to the majors until they are 25 end up with careers like Nick Gordon 27 a utility player or starting for a rebuilding team, sure there are the McNeils, Doziers, Merrifield and but they are few and far between.

Lee just turned 22 so he is the one guy that could spend the whole year in the minors and still end up really good, but he better be damn good.

[Doctor Gast]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

Can you point to any evidence OF is more dangerous than infield at all? I can't find any on line. 

A healthy Ronald Acuna Jr. tore his ACL on the same type of play. It does take a rocket scientist to see the immense pressure on the ACL on common OF play of running full blast, leaping and coming down on that leg at that angle as I explained before. I don't need any data from some authorized research to tell me that it's not a good idea to put a player that has torn his ACL twice under these conditions. If you don't want to use common sense & you have to have some evidence to prevent you making this mistake then do it, but if you don't find any authorized research on this specific matter doesn't automatically make you right.

[Jocko87]

 

Except for $20 insert shortstop and for peanuts insert starting pitcher or literally any other position.  Get to work meme makers.

What a great problem to have and a welcome change in approach from the organization.  Do not be surprised if the #5 pick this year is another shortstop either.  I don't know the draft board, maybe its the second round pick.  Get talent, turn it into what fits best.  I love it.

I also love Brooks.  I got to watch one of the AA playoff games from behind the dugout last year and the dude is impressive.  I'm speaking mostly from a body language standpoint here, many others will do the on field.  Hugely impressive to watch him interact with a new team in the playoffs after what had to be a whirlwind year.  Obvious coaches kid and carries an uncommon confidence that damn few would have in that situation.  Also took the loss hard, harder than his new teammates.  Selfishly I'm hoping to watch him play in Wichita for a good long time but want that to be because everyone on the big squad is healthy and raking.  I'm going to enjoy it while I can.

 

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

A healthy Ronald Acuna Jr. tore his ACL on the same type of play. It does take a rocket scientist to see the immense pressure on the ACL on common OF play of running full blast, leaping and coming down on that leg at that angle as I explained before. I don't need any data from some authorized research to tell me that it's not a good idea to put a player that has torn his ACL twice under these conditions. If you don't want to use common sense & you have to have some evidence to prevent you making this mistake then do it, but if you don't find any authorized research on this specific matter doesn't automatically make you right.

And we don't need any data from some authorized research to tell us that it's not a good idea to put a player that has torn his ACL twice under conditions that have him running full blast, stopping and planting on that leg in a lateral movement, then twisting and throwing across his body. Since, you know, the vast majority of ACL tears we see in professional sports are non-contact injuries that take place while trying to plant after going full speed and making a lateral move. Like a SS does far more than an OFer jumps and lands awkwardly at the wall. Guess Lewis should just retire.

[rv78]

For 2024 and beyond? = Lee, Lewis, Julien, Salas, Martin, Correa, Polanco, Miranda, all tied to 3 infield positions. Let's face it, that's too many players to get quality at bats for on a regular basis. I see Martin moving to the outfield if he continues to develop. Still leaves 7 players for 3 infield spots. My guess is Polanco will be traded at the deadline in 2023 unless he is raking it and the Twins are leading the division. If they aren't in contention they'll get a better haul for him if he is raking it. Otherwise I don't see the Twins picking up his option for 2024 and 2025. Salas would be a stretch for making it to the show in 2024 so he can probably be scratched from the list but needs to be figured long term. If Kirilloff and Larnach become legit players which is a high probablility that I, and a lot of others are hoping for, then 1B and a CO spot are tied up as well. If Buxton can stay healthy that only leaves 1 OF spot to fill. Wouldn't it be great if Wallner, Lewis or Martin can fill it? Then again Emmanuel Rodriguez may only be a couple years away as well. Who's the odd man out? Salas? Julien? Miranda? What about Gordon? Still too many players for positions available. Good problem to have but eventually it means someone or two or more will probably be traded. 

[chpettit19]

43 minutes ago, miracleb said:

Lee being forced to play 3rd with CC at short? How about the older guy with the bad wheel moving to 3rd to make room for the younger, healthier Lee?

**************************************

If Correa moves to third in the next couple of years, we WAY OVER paid for him!

We can't move Correa to 3rd because he makes too much to play there? Did I infer incorrectly?

**************************************

Yes, you infer correctly.  His value is as a shortstop.   His stats as a shortstop are awesome!!  His stats don't translate nearly as well as a 3rd baseman(middle of the pack?)

FYI, Correa would've been 11th in HRs, 5th in BA, 3rd in OBP, 7th in SLG, and tied for 5th in wRC+ amongst qualified 3Bs last year. He was tied with Devers for wRC+. Devers just got 10 years, 313.5 million. Correa would certainly be a better fielder. Machado got 10, 300 that he's going to opt out of cuz he's going to get even more. Arenado got 8/260. Correa would be a top 5 3B, and they all get the same kind of money as he did.

[Beast]

6 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Lee is as close to a “can’t miss” prospect as the Twins have had in several years - son of a coach, high baseball acumen, raked at every level with both power and OBP, and plenty good in the field. Baseball flows through this kid’s veins.

I can’t wait to cheer for this kid and tune in to watch every one of his ABs.

This is almost word for word what was said about Kirilloff a few years back.

Not saying it’s good or bad, that Kirilloff is cooked, etc.  Just an observation.

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, Beast said:

This is almost word for word what was said about Kirilloff a few years back.

Not saying it’s good or bad, that Kirilloff is cooked, etc.  Just an observation.

I think that's actually pretty encouraging. I assume Lee doesn't have a bone in his wrist that is too long, and, when healthy, Kirilloff has looked like a future star. Let's hope Lee can stay healthy, and Kirilloff returns healthy, and these 2 can be our version of Arenado and Goldschmidt in St Louis!

[Mike Sixel]

51 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

A healthy Ronald Acuna Jr. tore his ACL on the same type of play. It does take a rocket scientist to see the immense pressure on the ACL on common OF play of running full blast, leaping and coming down on that leg at that angle as I explained before. I don't need any data from some authorized research to tell me that it's not a good idea to put a player that has torn his ACL twice under these conditions. If you don't want to use common sense & you have to have some evidence to prevent you making this mistake then do it, but if you don't find any authorized research on this specific matter doesn't automatically make you right.

n/m this is a Lee thread.

[Doctor Gast]

27 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

n/m this is a Lee thread.

I'm just responding to your Lewis statements, If you hadn't questioned something about Lewis, I wouldn't have responded.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

And we don't need any data from some authorized research to tell us that it's not a good idea to put a player that has torn his ACL twice under conditions that have him running full blast, stopping and planting on that leg in a lateral movement, then twisting and throwing across his body. Since, you know, the vast majority of ACL tears we see in professional sports are non-contact injuries that take place while trying to plant after going full speed and making a lateral move. Like a SS does far more than an OFer jumps and lands awkwardly at the wall. Guess Lewis should just retire.

Good point chpettit, here's a research conclusion.

Conclusions: The overwhelming majority of baseball players that sustain ACL injuries do so while fielding or base running. Outfielders are significantly more likely than infielders to suffer ACL injuries while fielding versus base running.Anterior Cruciate Ligament Injuries in Baseball Players

 

I'd assume also that SS could be more stressful on his ACL. So maybe Lewis starting at 2B could be a blessing in disquise.

 

 

[chpettit19]

44 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Good point chpettit, here's a research conclusion.

Conclusions: The overwhelming majority of baseball players that sustain ACL injuries do so while fielding or base running. Outfielders are significantly more likely than infielders to suffer ACL injuries while fielding versus base running.Anterior Cruciate Ligament Injuries in Baseball Players

 

I'd assume also that SS could be more stressful on his ACL. So maybe Lewis starting at 2B could be a blessing in disquise.

 

 

Interesting find there. I'll start by saying any study with only 42 data points means next to nothing for me. 32% of those players were outfielders, and 32% were infielders. Now we're down to 26 players in this comparative sample. I'm going to need more than 26 data points to call anything useful. There's no real data in 13 outfielders hurt their knee more in the field than on the bases than 13 infielders did. Especially when those 26 players range from youth athletes (data means literally nothing to MLB athletes), to high school (still useless), to college (somewhat useful), and then the pros (useful). Were those 13 outfielders all 6th graders or high school kids? I appreciate the effort here, but that study means nothing in this context.

Adalberto Mondesi tore his ACL on either a pick off play trying to get back to 1st, or a fake steal he did on the next pitch. Daniel Hudson tore his ACL trying to get off the mound to field a dribbler. Wilson Ramos tore his fielding a weak grounder in front of the plate. Kyle Schwarber tore his in a collision with another player. Marcus Stroman tore his doing fielding drills in spring training. Mariano River tore his just shagging fly balls. Dexter Fowler tore his running the bases. Adam Eaton tore his in a collision running to first. Acuna tore his chasing a fly ball. Royce tore his making a play against the wall. Mauricio Dubon tore his in a rundown after getting picked off. Antonio Senzatela tore his trying to cover first on a grounder to the 1B. There's a bunch of the recent MLB torn ACLs. I'm not seeing anything screaming "don't play guys in the OF!" there. Just a bunch of randomness. Which is what this is. A really big bummer of a random event.

Edit: Sorry, I wasn't paying attention to what thread we were discussing this in. I appreciate the back and forth, and the effort to finding data, but let's get this back to Lee. I think we can both agree that Lee taking an infield spot is a very good idea!

[sweetmusicviola16]

Correa is the best SS we have. Period. Leave him at SS. 

Lee is an amazing prospect. Thrilled to have him. I'm in the move him to 3B camp.

 

[Brandon]

I don't know man.  Pete Incaviglia had a much faster rise to MLB.  If he can't surpass Pete how is he even a top prospect?

(for those wondering Pete debuted in the majors right out of college and hit 30 HRs as a rookie.  He was also an average at best hitter for his career).  

[rationalfan]

8 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

What does this even mean? If he isn't wildly successful in AA he won't be rushed because he isn't even on the 40 man, if he is wildly successful and there is room on the major league roster he should be put on the 40 man and moved up. 

I like Lee and love that he just turned 22 at the beginning of February, which means he has some time before he just becomes another 24 year old minor league prospect. I believe by mid summer we here on TD will be begging the Twins to bring him up because he is doing so well!

To me, it means the Twins are ideally not in the "what do we have to lose" situation of calling up a young player early on a bad and/or injury-ladled team.  Correa is ideally playing 90% of the games at SS.  Hopefully, Miranda and Kiriloff and Larnach are staying healthy and playing well enough to earn more time out there.  We all want Polanco to have another really good odd-numbered year.  As summer wears on, hopefully Royce is ready.  If someone told me that Lee would be having a great year, but still in the minors in August, it would be good news because it should mean there's no room on the winning major league roster.

[sweetmusicviola16]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

A healthy Ronald Acuna Jr. tore his ACL on the same type of play. It does take a rocket scientist to see the immense pressure on the ACL on common OF play of running full blast, leaping and coming down on that leg at that angle as I explained before. I don't need any data from some authorized research to tell me that it's not a good idea to put a player that has torn his ACL twice under these conditions. If you don't want to use common sense & you have to have some evidence to prevent you making this mistake then do it, but if you don't find any authorized research on this specific matter doesn't automatically make you right.

Very well put. My problem with playing him in CF last season is also that he had spent almost zero time at the position. 7 games. Add to this very little time in the ML and the flow of adrenaline and playing a position that was new to him.

[DocBauer]

5 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

So much speed with Lewis...I have no idea why people want him at 2B.

Mike, it's not about wanting to move him to 2B. Until Correa, I wanted Lewis to work out at SS and stay there for 10yrs and make multiple All Star games. It's about placing the right guys in the right 8/9 spots to create the best lineup you can. I couldn't care less if Lewis played 3B and Lee played 2B. I believe Lewis has more pure quickness and speed than Lee, therefore I believe he's better at 2B...where he might become the best in all of MLB...and can cover more ground, whereas I believe 3B is a little more reaction and arm based. More range is always good, of course.

Should Lewis move to the OF, I'm fine with that as well. But as of now, he's not replacing Buxton on a full time basis. If Martin really has a ML future, it's going to be in the OF and not 3B/2B. Neither Larnach or Wallner are going to be infielders. So while Lewis could make a great full time OF, who does he replace? And who replaces him in the infield,? Is the team better with Lewis in the OF instead of someone else and a lesser player at 2B instead. (Lesser being relative, of course). 

So it's not about Lewis playing 2B instead of Lee, or anyone else. It's just putting the pieces in to place to complete the best puzzle possible. And Lewis at 2B, with the potential to be one of the very best defensively and offensively, might just be the best fit.

 

[JD-TWINS]

Looks like we got our 2nd baseman……Mr. Lee

as well as our 3B …….Mr. Lewis starting in ‘24.

With these two guys developing and the ability to roll Larnach - Miranda - Kirilof principally through the 1B - DH rolls is pretty exciting.

Kirilof plays 1B 100 games - DH 30 games

Miranda plays 3B 30 games - 1B 60 games - DH 30 games

Larnach at DH 50 games - LF 80 games

Buxton in CF 80 games - DH 50 games

Gordon LF 80 games - CF 50 games

Same 2 Catchers

I’d keep Farmer for ‘24 for veteran depth at SS & 2B

RF is up in the air…. Maybe a platoon of Walner & Rodriguez OR dare I say, an improved version of Max Kepler from ‘23?

Rodriguez - Buxton - Gordon - CC - Larnach - Kiriloff - Lee - Lewis - Vazquez

Bench: Miranda - Jeffers - Kepler - Farmer

Martin/Polanco/Walner are options …..even Gallo, if he goes off this year. We’ll have to see what ‘23 brings!

Mr. Lee will be in the line-up in ‘24!!

[Beast]

All of this arguing about “no, he’ll get hurt there, he’s got to play here.”

The fact that we’re even having that conversation indicates a huge problem.  We’re talking about a 21 year old kid playing baseball, here.  If you can’t play centerfield or SS without blowing your knee every year, your body is broken and your career is over.  Putting him in left or second base isn’t solving anything.  It’s irrationally giving into paranoia over a situation you can’t control.  

Tryng to hide him in a place he doesn’t use his knees isn’t going to work.  He’ll blow it running the bases, or jumping down the dug out stairs, or slipping on some ice, or whatever.  He’ll still have to run and pivot at second base or left field.

He’s either got knees that can handle a semi-athletic (baseball) sport or he doesn’t.  There’s only so much bubble wrap and off days until he’s just not a that useful anymore.

Not saying his career is over, but that no amount of micromanagement is going to change the outcome.  Same with Buxton, and everyone else on this roster that can’t seem to play a game that drunk 40 year old guys play all the time without a debilitating injury.

The only possibilities are their body is broken permanently and chronically, it’s a fluke, or the strength/training staff is doing something egregiously wrong.  It’s not because they’re playing the wrong position.

[DocBauer]

16 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Looks like we got our 2nd baseman……Mr. Lee

as well as our 3B …….Mr. Lewis starting in ‘24.

With these two guys developing and the ability to roll Larnach - Miranda - Kirilof principally through the 1B - DH rolls is pretty exciting.

Kirilof plays 1B 100 games - DH 30 games

Miranda plays 3B 30 games - 1B 60 games - DH 30 games

Larnach at DH 50 games - LF 80 games

Buxton in CF 80 games - DH 50 games

Gordon LF 80 games - CF 50 games

Same 2 Catchers

I’d keep Farmer for ‘24 for veteran depth at SS & 2B

RF is up in the air…. Maybe a platoon of Walner & Rodriguez OR dare I say, an improved version of Max Kepler from ‘23?

Rodriguez - Buxton - Gordon - CC - Larnach - Kiriloff - Lee - Lewis - Vazquez

Bench: Miranda - Jeffers - Kepler - Farmer

Martin/Polanco/Walner are options …..even Gallo, if he goes off this year. We’ll have to see what ‘23 brings!

Mr. Lee will be in the line-up in ‘24!!

Not going to disagree with your basic setup there, but looks like you missed Julien. He's absolutely got to be in the mix at DH and a handful of other spots.

I think Larnach becomes a full time OF, and Rodriguez is probably a couple years away just based on youth and depth. Hoping Martin becomes part of the equation as well.

But Lee and Lewis seem to set a lot of things in to motion don't they?

[jkcarew]

5 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Can you point to any evidence OF is more dangerous than infield at all? I can't find any on line. 

Exactly. Carew, among others, got his ACL playing second base…countless others on the base paths.

The second you take your most athletic guys out of the middle of the field, you compromise their value. Is Lewis likely to hit like an above average 1B or DH? No. Are corner infielders with wRC+ of 110 game-changers? Not really. Is a good center fielder or shortstop with the same wRC+ a game changer? Yes.

Let’s have the 23 year old prospect with speed put up a 900 OPS season or two before we move him to DH. Until then, we’ll have to live with the risk of reinjury no matter where he plays.

[jkcarew]

I’m a little skeptical of the abundance of confidence in Lee’s power projections…particularly comments like “he already shows above average power”. He hit 4 home runs last year in 139 PA.

The +power is still a projection at this point, IMO. Having said that, I have no problem giving the nod to the hit-first guy (Lee) over the ‘toolsy’ guy (Lewis). It’s usually the other way around. Besides, it looks like Lee will come with plenty of defensive flexibility in his own right.