Is a Deal with Chaska’s Brad Hand in the Cards?

[Lou Hennessy]

The Twins bullpen is mostly set for the start of the upcoming season. Should they roll with what they have, or make one last addition by bringing home a native Minnesotan for that last spot?

Image courtesy of Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins find themselves in a heated hand of five-card draw. They like most of the cards they’re holding in the bullpen, but they could take a chance on trading in their last piece for a fresh one in the hopes that it complements their hand better. 

There are plenty of face cards in this hand, including relief ace Jhoan Duran, veteran king Caleb Thielbar, and a young jack, or should I say Jax, rather. Other members in their relief corps such as Jorge Lopez or Jorge Alcala could find themselves in that high-value card class, but the jury is still out on if they can be counted on to be healthy and/or effective. 

Still, the club could be looking to add one last card in the hopes of landing a royal flush. But is it really worth it to go for a wild card, or should the Twins stick with the hand they were dealt?

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Imperfect analogies aside, the club has been tied by Darren Wolfson to veteran southpaw Brad Hand, who is coming off of a relatively successful, if uninspiring, 2022 season. Right now, the last member of the Twins’ bullpen is projected to be righty Trevor Megill, who showcased a blazing fastball in the last few months of the season but left much to be desired overall. 

 

Adding Hand to the mix carries a possibility that he continues to outshine his peripherals, as has been the case since he transitioned to a full-time reliever in 2016. Even just last season, he had a fantastic 2.80 ERA despite having a 4.40 xERA. The expected figure is due in large part to his unspectacular 1.65 K/BB rate, an unexciting 7.3% swinging strike rate, and diminishing values on his fastball as the season wore on. But aside from the discouraging numbers under the hood, he managed to throw 45 innings of mostly unproblematic baseball in 2022. So would the Twins be wise to bring him on board with an inexpensive one-year deal? 

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Let’s start with the upside of such a deal. As the last few years have shown us, you can never have too many options in a relief corps. Signing Hand likely moves Megill down to Triple-A for the time being, but the Twins wouldn’t be required to drop anyone from their 40-man roster. Both Chris Paddack and Royce Lewis are now eligible to be moved to the 60-day injured list, which would remove them from the 40-man roster until reinstatement. 

 

If Hand produces as expected, he’d be the third left-handed pitcher in the projected bullpen depth chart. Thielbar is a lock as a high-leverage option, and Jovani Moran is bound to get more time after impressing in 41 MLB innings last year. Sure, Moran has shown more success against right-handed batters thanks to his big changeup, but he’s had success against fellow lefties, as well (12 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 vs. LHH). So overall, it's not too much of a gamble just to have Hand aboard.

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The downside of such a move isn’t that someone like Megill misses MLB opportunities. There are bound to be multiple injuries throughout the season and surely the big-league club will have to tap into the depth stashed in St. Paul. The downside comes from the Twins’ recent track record of giving established MLB veterans too long of a leash when their performance underwhelms. From J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker, to Tyler Duffey and Joe Smith, sometimes it feels as if the decision-makers are more concerned with hurting their reputation as a veteran-friendly organization rather than the results on the field. 

Granted, sometimes that patience pays off. In 2021, Alex Colome had a brutal 8.31 ERA in April before turning things around (3.51 ERA from May 1st through the end of the season). But in that first month, the club was unable to remove him from high-leverage situations, whether due to a lack of MLB-quality replacements or an excess of confidence in Colome’s projected regression to the mean. That lack of action regarding the veteran (among other things) essentially derailed their hopes of contention by May. 

After two consecutive losing seasons, the Twins can’t afford to have that same mindset with someone like Hand, especially given the fact that he would likely be their sole addition to the bullpen.

Their efforts might be better suited to give their current cards more playing time and reevaluate their needs down the line. Maybe Kenta Maeda eventually transitions to the bullpen as he approaches an inning limit in his first season post-Tommy John surgery. Perhaps someone like Megill or Ronny Henriquez emerges as a relief weapon. Maybe one of their back-end starters such as Josh Winder or Bailey Ober gets a boost from moving to a relief role. 

The team is bound to have a handful of options in 2023, and they need to put their chips behind those who will find the most success rather than trying to squeeze out as much value as they can from an aging veteran. 

But what do you think? Are the Twins better off sticking with the hand that they were dealt, or should they try for the Hand that's still available on the free agent market? Let us know what you think in the comments below. 

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[4twinsJA]

I look for Twins to add Hand after putting players on 60 day IL. Should be a good addition, experienced, LH pitcher. Will be plenty of opportunity for Megill and others that don't make opening day roster, likely to need another 8 bullpen arms through the year. Great to have depth, playing time will work its way out on the field over the year.

[Dman]

Not sure how the Twins want to spend the two roster spots they will have available once they can put guys on injured reserve.  They could opt for a  right handed bat for 1st base or could just add Garlick back onto the 40 man.  They could add Hand or they could rely more heavily on Coulumbe and the other young arms they have.  They could save a spot for the Sire of Fort Meyers.  Hard to say what they want to do, but we should find out fairly soon.

[chpettit19]

Minor league deal with an opt out at the end of May if he hasn't been called up to that point.

[roger]

Would depend on the contract and cost.

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Minor league deal with an opt out at the end of May if he hasn't been called up to that point.

This.

[MMMordabito]

Dodgers and Red Sox put guys on the 60-Day IL, so it appears to be open season on those transactions.

[DocBauer]

So the thing is, it's only money.

Nobody needs to be removed from the 40 man to sign him.

He won't cost a ton and might have a repeat of 2022, giving the pen a solid 3rd LH option.

He can be cut if he stinks. And even without options, there is always the IL "tired arm" symptom if he needs a re-set and a rehab before you eventually cut him. 

There is nothing to lose here except someone like Megill beginning the year at AAA instead of with the Twins. 

But as Dman mentions, maybe they want to add a RH bat instead? Maybe they just feel Coulombe is already as good of an option and might as well just add him. I mean, he's been pretty good the past few years for the Twins. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, 4twinsJA said:

I look for Twins to add Hand after putting players on 60 day IL.

They should add SOMEBODY. There is no reason to have empty roster spots at the beginning of the season. That's a waste of a resource.

[Dman]

13 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

They should add SOMEBODY. There is no reason to have empty roster spots at the beginning of the season. That's a waste of a resource.

They will use them but it might be picking up another player some other team drops.  Or they might like what one of the non roster invites looks like and add them at the end of spring training.  Maybe Dobnak looks good enough to add.  Maybe they just add Garlick or Coulombe back on.  Hard to say what the FO might want to do but those spots won't be open when the regular season starts. They will have to decide what gives them the biggest bang for the buck and given they are at an all time high payroll I am betting those spots end up being low cost options.

[DJL44]

8 minutes ago, Dman said:

Hard to say what the FO might want to do but those spots won't be open when the regular season starts. 

Upgrade the spot now and upgrade it again later if you want. There's no reason to leave 3 spots (Paddack, Lewis, Canterino) empty right now.

[danielp19653]

I guess I don't see the harm in letting Megill try and sort out pitch location to start the year in AAA that's not something that requires MLB innings, seems like he has good velocity but struggles with keeping it at the top of the zone and it falls into the belt area too often. I agree no one in the bullpen should have a long leash with the options on hand but why would that mean we wouldn't sign Hand with a shorter leash? Maybe I'm misunderstanding the end of the article but feels like you're saying don't sign Hand because a long leash could be bad, so give the current options a long leash instead. I'd rather take the extra option and give him the lower leverage spots and if he still performs above the xERA great we have an extra option as a setup guy, Otherwise cut him and bring up the best option from AAA and he gets the low leverage spots.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I don't see any compelling reason to not add Brad Hand to the 40 man roster and then see how the relievers look during spring training. He has been very good in the recent past and has potential to be really good this year, especially at home in Minnesota. He could invite all the Twins relievers to his Minnesota home for a BBQ.

[chpettit19]

19 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Upgrade the spot now and upgrade it again later if you want. There's no reason to leave 3 spots (Paddack, Lewis, Canterino) empty right now.

1 minute ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I don't see any compelling reason to not add Brad Hand to the 40 man roster and then see how the relievers look during spring training. He has been very good in the recent past and has potential to be really good this year, especially at home in Minnesota. He could invite all the Twins relievers to his Minnesota home for a BBQ.

Legitimate question, how do you think Hand, or any veteran for that matter, would feel being signed to the 40-man and then DFA'd before spring is done? I see that as the likely outcome if you sign one of these guys now simply because you have open spots. You add a veteran as the 40th man and the second someone you'd rather have gets waived you claim them and cut the veteran you just signed. Do you think they're just happy to be able to get into a camp and get some spring innings in, or are they annoyed with being bounced around as they try to hold onto the tail end of a career?

[DJL44]

9 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I don't see any compelling reason to not add Brad Hand to the 40 man roster and then see how the relievers look during spring training. He has been very good in the recent past and has potential to be really good this year, especially at home in Minnesota. He could invite all the Twins relievers to his Minnesota home for a BBQ.

If he's cheap enough to sign his mom might buy enough tickets to make it profitable.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

33 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Legitimate question, how do you think Hand, or any veteran for that matter, would feel being signed to the 40-man and then DFA'd before spring is done? I see that as the likely outcome if you sign one of these guys now simply because you have open spots. You add a veteran as the 40th man and the second someone you'd rather have gets waived you claim them and cut the veteran you just signed. Do you think they're just happy to be able to get into a camp and get some spring innings in, or are they annoyed with being bounced around as they try to hold onto the tail end of a career?

Good question. If he makes the team in his home town, he will be thrilled. If he gets a real chance to show the Twins what he's got and he gets DFA'd, he will not be happy about it, but he got his chance. It will not hurt the Twins, if they decide to cut him. He had a legitimate chance to make this team. Or if the signed veteran has a chance to make the team, there are others who can be DFA'd. Which of these two relievers would you rather take a chance on: Pagan or Hand or Magill? That is the real question. 

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Good question. If he makes the team in his home town, he will be thrilled. If he gets a real chance to show the Twins what he's got and he gets DFA'd, he will not be happy about it, but he got his chance. It will not hurt the Twins, if they decide to cut him. He had a legitimate chance to make this team. Or if the signed veteran has a chance to make the team, there are others who can be DFA'd. Which of these two relievers would you rather take a chance on: Pagan or Hand or Magill? That is the real question. 

Honestly? Pagan and Megill. I think Hand is toast. Hand wouldn't be in my top 25 Twins pitchers as of today.

But what you and I think of their pen doesn't really matter. The Twins have been pretty clear that they think they have a good pen, and it's pretty well set barring injury. We may not like Pagan or Megill, but the Twins seem to. So my question really is about him not having a real chance to make this team outside of an injury. Many MLB teams are carrying only 1 lefty. The Twins have 2 who are better, and 1 (Coulombe) who is a likely washed up veteran like Hand. How much can a reliever do in a handful of spring innings to truly overtake guys the FO already thinks are good enough to be on the opening day roster? If the Twins didn't think they were set in the pen, I'd hope they were shooting for someone higher than Hand if they're forcing a veteran onto the opening day roster. It doesn't sound to me like the Twins are looking at him, or any currently available relievers, as more than depth, not opening day options. And if that's the case I don't see the point in signing any vet to a major league deal. And I can't imagine the players see a reason to sign a major league deal knowing their only real shot at making the roster is someone getting hurt, and that it's far more likely they're just DFA'd in a month.

[Doctor Gast]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Minor league deal with an opt out at the end of May if he hasn't been called up to that point.

That's Doogie's assumption that makes a lot of sense, IMO that's why this FO is so coy. They are willing to wait out Hand and maybe others to see if they pick them up on MiLB contract for decent depth. It'd be nice to bring Hand home

[DocBauer]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Legitimate question, how do you think Hand, or any veteran for that matter, would feel being signed to the 40-man and then DFA'd before spring is done? I see that as the likely outcome if you sign one of these guys now simply because you have open spots. You add a veteran as the 40th man and the second someone you'd rather have gets waived you claim them and cut the veteran you just signed. Do you think they're just happy to be able to get into a camp and get some spring innings in, or are they annoyed with being bounced around as they try to hold onto the tail end of a career?

That's a very interesting question.

But should a move like this happen...reminding ST is here and the hot stove league is well over... it's not happening because either party is going in just expecting to be waived. The veteran is looking for a shot to prove himself and make a club. And if he doesn't, then like any other athlete, he's auditioning for anyone else watching. For the ballclub, it's the possibility of adding another good player, probably on the cheap, for undoubtedly a 1yr deal only, in hopes of gaining a "steal" of a potential asset. In other words, a solid veteran who might have one more good year in the sun inside of him and it's low cost and low risk to take the shot.

So I don't think either party looks at a late deal like this as any sort of slight or insult if it doesn't work out.

[Squirrel]

3 hours ago, MMMordabito said:

Dodgers and Red Sox put guys on the 60-Day IL, so it appears to be open season on those transactions.

Yes ... when ST opens, which is the first day of 'pitchers and catchers' is when teams can put players on the 60-day IL

[chpettit19]

19 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

That's a very interesting question.

But should a move like this happen...reminding ST is here and the hot stove league is well over... it's not happening because either party is going in just expecting to be waived. The veteran is looking for a shot to prove himself and make a club. And if he doesn't, then like any other athlete, he's auditioning for anyone else watching. For the ballclub, it's the possibility of adding another good player, probably on the cheap, for undoubtedly a 1yr deal only, in hopes of gaining a "steal" of a potential asset. In other words, a solid veteran who might have one more good year in the sun inside of him and it's low cost and low risk to take the shot.

So I don't think either party looks at a late deal like this as any sort of slight or insult if it doesn't work out.

I question whether or not he would have a real shot at making the team. If the Twins didn't feel their pen was set I'd think they'd be out there being more aggressive at bringing players in, don't you? Why would the Twins hand out 40-man spots to veterans with no options left who aren't likely to make the opening day roster? I don't know how much a reliever can really do in spring to impress enough, and unseat someone expected to make the roster already. Maybe their pen work really can be a battle for a roster spot, but, if not, having to DFA them, to me, is a worse spot (for the team) than having them on a minor league deal and being able to know you have them in AAA if needed.

And I'd think a player would be happier taking a well paid minor league deal (nothing, that I know of, says they can't pay him the same amount without giving him a 40-man spot) with an opt out so they don't have to worry about playing the waiver game. But I could be wrong about that. I'd rather take a minor league deal with an opt out so I don't have to play the waiver game and risk going somewhere I don't want to go through the claims process. But maybe he doesn't care where he goes and just wants to keep pitching in the bigs. I don't know. It's why I question what is actually preferable for a player. Likely depends on the player.

But I'm not in the "you have 40-man spots so just use them" boat. I think there's far more thought that should go into it than that.

[DocBauer]

34 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I question whether or not he would have a real shot at making the team. If the Twins didn't feel their pen was set I'd think they'd be out there being more aggressive at bringing players in, don't you? Why would the Twins hand out 40-man spots to veterans with no options left who aren't likely to make the opening day roster? I don't know how much a reliever can really do in spring to impress enough, and unseat someone expected to make the roster already. Maybe their pen work really can be a battle for a roster spot, but, if not, having to DFA them, to me, is a worse spot (for the team) than having them on a minor league deal and being able to know you have them in AAA if needed.

And I'd think a player would be happier taking a well paid minor league deal (nothing, that I know of, says they can't pay him the same amount without giving him a 40-man spot) with an opt out so they don't have to worry about playing the waiver game. But I could be wrong about that. I'd rather take a minor league deal with an opt out so I don't have to play the waiver game and risk going somewhere I don't want to go through the claims process. But maybe he doesn't care where he goes and just wants to keep pitching in the bigs. I don't know. It's why I question what is actually preferable for a player. Likely depends on the player.

But I'm not in the "you have 40-man spots so just use them" boat. I think there's far more thought that should go into it than that.

All valid points. And I don't disagree that Hand wouldn't be a given to make the team. And again, maybe the Twins aren't really interested, or only interested in a milb deal with an opt out. And I have no problem with that either. In fact, I might even prefer it. 

I like the option game. But I don't know that its necessarily always an absolute for me. And for argument sake, we'll just continue to use Hand. We could just as easily be talking about a 1B, OF, UTIL, etc. So Hand signs for $2M with some incentives that could push him to $3M based on appearances. IP, etc. His addition doesn't cost anyone a job, or place on the 40 man, he simply fills a temporary 40 man spot due to someone going on the 60 man. If he performs well, you have an inexpensive, wily veteran LH to help in the middle innings, giving you a luxury of 3 LH arms in the pen for matchups. And if he doesn't look good...or starts OK and then disappears...much like Joe Smith in our 2022 pen...your "option" is to just cut bait, open up another 40 man spot for someone else, and promote someone like Megill, already on the 40 man, back up to the parent club. The only thing lost is the $2M given to Hand in this theoretical signing. 

I also don't believe you just fill the empty 40 man spots simply to fill them. But, still using the Hand scenario as we're already in that neighborhood, the Twins will have Coulombe at St Paul. They might look at Hand and his peripherals and whatnot and feel he's worth a looksee. So they bring him in, and keep him or cut him as they see fit, and when they see fit. And then Coulombe is still sitting there ready to be added to the 40 man if you want to bring him up. 

Again, all hypothetical. But why not take a flier or two, or make an addition or two, with those empty 40 man spots if there is someone out there you think might actually help you? Of course, there might not be anyone you actually like out there well enough to bring in over and above anyone you already have available. And I'm fine with that.

Personally, I would have spent $6-7M on someone that I liked better than Pagan and his $3.5M instead of even considering Hand, but that's just me. But the Twins have 2 or 3 open 40 man spots now, depending on what they decide to do with Canterino. And they can easily promote Helman, Garlick, Coulombe, or whoever. And they can wait to do so until they see other teams' cuts and see if there is someone they'd like to take a flier on. And, of course, this discussion is about more than just Hand. But to me, one "option" we never talk about is the option to just cut someone if you take a shot and it doesn't work. 

[Althebum82]

It would surprise me to see any pursuit of a low-strikeout pitcher.  That profile is just not consistent with what gets this FO attention.  Hence the love affair with Pagan and Megill.  Clearly Coloumbe is an exception, but note that he is presently on the outside looking in, too.

[jkcarew]

Doesn’t do anything for me. More evidence that he was lucky last year than that he was good. And 2021 was nothing to write home about either. Minor league deal would be good.

[JD-TWINS]

4 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Good question. If he makes the team in his home town, he will be thrilled. If he gets a real chance to show the Twins what he's got and he gets DFA'd, he will not be happy about it, but he got his chance. It will not hurt the Twins, if they decide to cut him. He had a legitimate chance to make this team. Or if the signed veteran has a chance to make the team, there are others who can be DFA'd. Which of these two relievers would you rather take a chance on: Pagan or Hand or Magill? That is the real question. 

Not Pagan!

[JD-TWINS]

Pitching isn’t all about spin rates or velocity or strike outs. Gotta have decent stuff but Hand’s attraction is his experience & what he has between the ears!

Pagan - López - Hand in the 8th with RH, LH, RH batters coming up. Who do you pick? 

Not close for me - sign Hand!!

[Greglw3]

I would definitely sign Hand.

[Brandon]

Signing hand vs Megill can’t hurt to have them earn that spot in the pen.

[miracleb]

Spending Pohlad money (increasing the payroll) is never an issue for me.  I view Hand as a similar reliever to Fulmer.  There are always 1-2 relievers injured during Spring training....... so Megill and Hand would probably both make the roster anyhow.

[Trov]

I either try to get him to agree to minor league deal with opt out if not on MLB roster by certain days, or wait until we can put guys on 60 day IL.  I do not see anyone on the 40 man I am willing to pass through waivers right now to go with Hand.  He used to be a top guy, but over recent years he is more so a vet that is getting by on smoke and mirrors and very will may blow up at any moment.