Is There More to Trevor Megill?

[Cody Pirkl]

Once again the Twins have essentially foregone any bullpen upgrades this offseason. With young arms hopefully nearing, this choice could turn out to be justified. One low profile reliever could factor into the equation too.

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika/USA Today

Trevor Megill could be called a relative success when compared to the other acquisitions the Twins made to the 2022 bullpen. Megill debuted with the Cubs in 2021 but was DFAd after the season. The Twins claimed him and soon after they DFAd him and he was outrighted to Triple-A. Megill found his way onto the roster in late May. He returned to the Saints for one appearance in early July but was able to stick with the big-league club for the remainder of the season. He may remain there as we head into the 2023 campaign. 

Megill threw 45 innings with a 4.80 ERA. He struck out over a batter per inning, kept walks to a respectable level and was incredibly stingy in the longball department. This led to FIP and xFIP painting the picture of a mid to low 3s ERA reliever, even if xERA disagreed. Averaging 98 mph on the fastball, the raw stuff alone was probably enough to justify Megill remaining in a low-leverage role throughout the season. After bouncing around a few organizations with little MLB experience, some may assume that at 28, Megill may not have much development left. But what if they were wrong?

For much of the season, Megill was a two-pitch pitcher. Plenty of relievers get by on a limited repertoire, but typically one of their pitches are an equalizer against same-handed hitters. Megill, who threw almost exclusively a high 90s fastball and a big overhand curve, didn’t have such a repertoire. In fact, Megill performed significantly better against left-handed hitters than right. His strikeout-to-walk rate was three times higher against lefties than righties. His OPS against was nearly .150 points lower. He was actually more of a lefty specialist, and a dominant one at that. Still though, there isn’t much reason that Megill shouldn’t be getting right-handed hitters out consistently.

The Twins undoubtedly took note of this along the way, as Megill started throwing a pitch that was classified as a slider in August around 27% of the time, and this became his second-most used pitch for the final two months of the season. It’s easy to assume that the Twins were trying to provide Megill with a pitch to match up better against right-handed hitters, as any kind of improvement in that department would have raised Megill’s game to a whole new level. Their midseason attempt to make an adjustment doesn’t show up well on paper with Megill posting his worst two months of the season with this new pitch, but it’s likely been a focal point of his offseason and could have much better results come spring.

Another issue with Megill is that for all of the spin and velocity he gets on his fastball, it’s one of his most-hittable pitches. Opponents hit nearly .300 on the pitch, and while they didn’t slug well against it, the expected numbers say Megill got lucky. Looking at where he threw his heater gives an obvious answer as to what’s going on here.

Averaging 98 mph is a huge plus for Megill, but the days of even a triple-digit fastball overpowering lineups are gone. Hitters were bound to get around on it every so often, and when they did, the fastball was often right where they could drive it. We’ve seen the Twins fix this with pitchers such as Tyler Duffey. Dropping the fastball at the top of the zone consistently keeps it out of the danger zone and allows it to play up a few miles per hour. It worked with Tyler Duffey working low-to-mid 90s. For Megill, it may make the pitch unhittable if he has the command to make a change.

It’s possible that Megill remains the low-leverage middle reliever he was in 2022. The fact that he remains on the roster, and the Twins didn’t push hard to replace him, however, hopefully means that they have hopes that he has more ceiling to reach and a plan to get him there. They began the process midseason in 2022 but with a full offseason to develop a new pitch, Megill could wind up with a devastating pitch to pair with his high-octane fastball against right-handed hitters. In 2023, Trevor Megill could factor into the bullpen mix in a surprisingly big way. Do you agree?

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[Cory Engelhardt]

I admit, I forget to list him quite often when writing up potential opening day 26 man rosters. But the stuff is there, and it's not like he is old. If he is getting a pitch in his arsenal that can get right handed hitters out, that would REALLY help for the bullpen this year. Good article!

[Dman]

I am hoping he is the real deal this year.  Love that HR suppression. Still he gave up way to many hits and seemed like he put men on base way too often making his outings far from stress free.  Frankly I am surprised he fared as well as he did with his 1.51 WHIP. 

If the Twins can help him miss more bats he could be a real find.  I love the velocity as it helps us build a power pen, but at this point he still seems like a wild card to me.  Hoping for the best though and will be watching how he does this spring.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think that Megill is the potential surprise candidate for a breakout - not a Duran type breakout, but more like a Tyler Duffy breakout from a few years ago.  As indicated, the stuff is definitely there, and he seems to be willing to keep working on his pitches as well.  It would be great if he were really solid in a lower leverage role in the bullpen.  That would mean that everyone else is doing their job and things are going well.  Where it gets a little scary is if he is forced into a higher leverage situation than he is comfortable being in.  That probably means that some of the rest of the bullpen is either injured or ineffective. 

[ashbury]

57 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I think that Megill is the potential surprise candidate for a breakout - not a Duran type breakout, but more like a Tyler Duffy breakout from a few years ago.  As indicated, the stuff is definitely there, and he seems to be willing to keep working on his pitches as well.  It would be great if he were really solid in a lower leverage role in the bullpen.  That would mean that everyone else is doing their job and things are going well.  Where it gets a little scary is if he is forced into a higher leverage situation than he is comfortable being in.  That probably means that some of the rest of the bullpen is either injured or ineffective. 

No bullpen is going to be composed of 8 Mariano Riveras.  Still, when you go into a season thinking that the key to a particular reliever's success is how he's managed in order to dodge the big bats with the game on the line, he's a pretty good candidate for replacement if at all possible.

[mike8791]

Nice optimistic article!  But this guy couldn't last w/Cubs and so far is below replacement level w/twins.  If he were with a rebuilding club, then sure, he is worth a risk.  But the Twins are not rebuilding.  Can they risk sending this guy out at the major league level?   This optimism for the pen is based on hope for improvement,  not  performance.  Not a bad thing if he were #8 in the pecking order with the 1-7 guys fairly solid.  Unfortunately, half the bullpen, as it stands today, is in a similar category - Pagan, Moran, and Lopez.  This currently does not have the look of a playoff-type bullpen.  

 

[Karbo]

I would rather see Ober than Megill.

[Cody Pirkl]

1 hour ago, mike8791 said:

Nice optimistic article!  But this guy couldn't last w/Cubs and so far is below replacement level w/twins.  If he were with a rebuilding club, then sure, he is worth a risk.  But the Twins are not rebuilding.  Can they risk sending this guy out at the major league level?   This optimism for the pen is based on hope for improvement,  not  performance.  Not a bad thing if he were #8 in the pecking order with the 1-7 guys fairly solid.  Unfortunately, half the bullpen, as it stands today, is in a similar category - Pagan, Moran, and Lopez.  This currently does not have the look of a playoff-type bullpen.  

 

In my opinion he showed enough last year to be the last guy in the bullpen of a competing team. His numbers are also weighed down heavily by the last two months where he appears to have been trying to work a brand new pitch into his second most used offering which is tough. Even if he's a low to mid 4s ERA guy that's a decent win for someone snagged off waivers. With his stuff there's always the possibility he can be even better though.

[miracleb]

Ober will be in the starting 5-man rotation.  I like Megill over Pagan....but it looks like both will make the team.

[chpettit19]

Fastball location, and spin efficiency, improvements could be huge for him. He's got the stuff that makes him worth holding onto and seeing what he becomes, but the performance that says he shouldn't be expected to be a big part of a competing bullpen until he shows he can use that stuff effectively.

[LewFordLives]

Good article, but I'm not as optimistic as some. The results just haven't been there. Management must see something they like. Maybe he can make the adjustments and turn it around.

[PatPfund]

If he isn't substantially better, he shouldn't go north with the team. I think Ober either makes the 5-man rotation, or goes to St Paul to stay in starter mode as the first call-up. But Winder's repeated shoulder issues as a starter may mean the Twins try him in relief, and he'd be far better than we've seen from Megill. If Alcala looks healthy this spring, I'd be trying to flip Megill to a KC/Detroit type team for a prospect.

[MTV]

With Lopez-Gray-Ryan-Mahle-Maeda-Ober as the 6-man rotation (they aren’t gonna option Ober down) that leaves 7 bullpen spots for 8 major league-ready relievers: Duran, Lopez, Thielbar, Jax, and Pagan (No MILB options) are locks for 5 spots, the remaining 2 have to be fought over by Megill, Moran and Alcala. The only world where I see Alcala not being one of the 2 is if he gets injured in spring training or shows too much regression, which I doubt will happen. I would pick Moran over Megill for variation, along with the fact that Megill has Multiple MILB options while Moran only has 1.
 

There is absolutely a good pitcher here, Megill had a 2.25 ERA before the All-Star break and had a solid ERA in the 6th (2.08) and 7th (4.26) but had an ERA over 8.5 in the 8th/9th. If he can start moving his fastball out of the heart of the plate this could be a seriously effective reliever for the twins for the next few years.

[jorgenswest]

I am pretty sure we can’t count on the stingy with the long ball part. His HR/FB rate of 9.5% is based on 42 fly balls (stabilization rate is 400). Look at his HR/FB rate and it varies tremendously due to his many small samples. In 2021 with the Cubs it was 24.1%. In AAA with St. Paul in 2022 it was 28%. His ML career number is 15.5%. That is probably close to his skill level though it was greater than that in his recent minors so maybe 16-17%.

There still may be something there but I would not count on him to be stingy with the long ball.

[Brandon]

Megill has a nice floor of being a solid 8th man out of the pen.  can he be more?  developing a new pitch can take a while, maybe even another year.  so I think if he makes strides and pitches to a low 4 era in the 8th spot in the pen why not?  he is making the minimum or close to it for this season and next right?  especially if he is throwing 98 and making progress on pitches.  I would rather his issue be pitch sequencing.  That would be an easier and faster fix.  getting a new pitch down can be hard and may not even take hold.  Will be a fun development to watch.  does he stay at floor level or move up a few rungs this year and next.  I imagine if he hasn't made enough strides by the time he reaches arbitration he will be gone.  maybe one year of arb but definitely not 2.  

[tony&rodney]

Megill is a great example of a guy who benefits from the relatively recent practice of teams carrying large bullpens. MLB had to limit the size to 13 last year because teams were overloaded with pitchers.

Thus, with more opportunities an unfinished raw pitcher who has good velocity can get chances that did not exist even a decade ago. With some minor refinements and a good spring, Megill will get his innings and he could be an important factor in the pen. Every year we see an arm emerge  who can effectively pitch an inning in middle inning relief. Megill is a guy to watch early.

[Danchat]

Eh, his fastball doesn't have enough movement and it's too hittable, and he hung too many breaking balls right down the middle, leading to the poor results we saw last year. I get why they're giving him another go-around, but this reeks of a May DFA after he bottoms out. 

[JD-TWINS]

On 2/15/2023 at 2:52 PM, mike8791 said:

Nice optimistic article!  But this guy couldn't last w/Cubs and so far is below replacement level w/twins.  If he were with a rebuilding club, then sure, he is worth a risk.  But the Twins are not rebuilding.  Can they risk sending this guy out at the major league level?   This optimism for the pen is based on hope for improvement,  not  performance.  Not a bad thing if he were #8 in the pecking order with the 1-7 guys fairly solid.  Unfortunately, half the bullpen, as it stands today, is in a similar category - Pagan, Moran, and Lopez.  This currently does not have the look of a playoff-type bullpen.  

 

Unfair to lump Moran in with Pagan & López. He’s. it a problem!

[JD-TWINS]

On 2/15/2023 at 8:16 PM, MTV said:

With Lopez-Gray-Ryan-Mahle-Maeda-Ober as the 6-man rotation (they aren’t gonna option Ober down) that leaves 7 bullpen spots for 8 major league-ready relievers: Duran, Lopez, Thielbar, Jax, and Pagan (No MILB options) are locks for 5 spots, the remaining 2 have to be fought over by Megill, Moran and Alcala. The only world where I see Alcala not being one of the 2 is if he gets injured in spring training or shows too much regression, which I doubt will happen. I would pick Moran over Megill for variation, along with the fact that Megill has Multiple MILB options while Moran only has 1.
 

There is absolutely a good pitcher here, Megill had a 2.25 ERA before the All-Star break and had a solid ERA in the 6th (2.08) and 7th (4.26) but had an ERA over 8.5 in the 8th/9th. If he can start moving his fastball out of the heart of the plate this could be a seriously effective reliever for the twins for the next few years.

3rd pitch development is key. Guys get ahead in the count & sit on his curve or fastball. If you’re looking exclusively fastball - you can hit it, even at 98MPH

3rd pitch can just be for show 15% of the time. Needs to be an expectation with hitter that something other than curve/fastball is on the way.

His curve is good - 98MPH is good…..needs 3rd pitch and a well called game from Vázquez/Jeffers!!