How Good is the Twins Bullpen?

[Hunter McCall]

1 hour ago, LastOnePicked said:

"As the year progressed, Pagan slid further down the pecking order. Eventually, he found his footing and put on an excellent second half of the season. Most of his late-season work went unnoticed, as his reputation was already tarnished."

I have to admit, this often-repeated faint praise of Pagan confuses me. Wouldn't almost ANY MLB reliever appear to be an improved pitcher when placed exclusively in low-leverage situations? It's like having a special bench hitter you only give at-bats when the opponent's position players are pitching in a blowout. Of course they're going to look good.

Yes, that's the point. By leaving him in that middle relief, low-leverage role, he can be a valuable asset to the team. He was effective there which is why I like that they kept him. I never suggested that I thought he would regain his closer role, just that he found a role he could be successful in last year.

[Hunter McCall]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

I think there's an average amount of question marks here, so that seems about right. I'm surprised so many people think Jax is a question mark: he was more than solid last season, is in his prime, and the changes to his pitch mix and move the 'pen seems to suit him very well. I'm not too worried about Duran, Thielbar, and Jax.

Alcala has the talent, but needs to show he can recover from injury. Lopez needs to show he's first half guy not post-trade guy. So some questions, but serious upside.

Moran is middle relief until he shows better command/control, but he's certainly good enough to hold down that slot right now. that change-up is deadly, his splits are fine and he can pitch multiple innings. Only question is really his ceiling: middle relief if he's always this wild, higher leverage if he locks it down (and out of the league if he loses it entirely, but...that's every reliever, right?)

Megill & Pagan have the most questions, but they're also the most fringe parts of the 'pen. Megill has shown signs, but is a little too hittable to be a consistent reliever right now. If he locks it down, he'll be a guy, if not they'll cycle him out for Sands or someone like that. Pagan has the stuff, but no one in Twins fandom has any faith in him for high leverage situations. (for good reason) In middle relief, he's probably ok, but I still wouldn't have kept him.

the ceiling is pretty good on this group, the floor isn't bad, and Duran is the only one where it'd be particularly crushing if he flamed out/got hurt.

This is how I see things as well! Thank you for your comment!

[ashbury]

20 hours ago, Hunter McCall said:

As the year progressed, Pagan slid further down the pecking order. Eventually, he found his footing and put on an excellent second half of the season.

Maybe one would reach that conclusion by looking at ERA, but that's a dangerous stat for any reliever.  All stats for relievers will be small-sample, but IMO looking at the components that lead to runs scored, for example with OPS-against, is better, and from that I note that Pagan's July-October numbers were below average relative to MLB as a whole, just as his first half was.  His last month+ looked good but that followed a rather putrid August so (again on SSS grounds) I'm reluctant to let a 9-game blip (with low BABIP) convince me he suddenly turned things around once and for all.

Hoping for the best, given that we seem to be committed to the guy to start the season.

[jmlease1]

4 hours ago, Hunter McCall said:

Yes, that's the point. By leaving him in that middle relief, low-leverage role, he can be a valuable asset to the team. He was effective there which is why I like that they kept him. I never suggested that I thought he would regain his closer role, just that he found a role he could be successful in last year.

It's a fair way to look at it. I still wouldn't have kept Pagan for all the aggro he'll cause twins fans even before a pitch is thrown this season, but I can understand the logic. And I'm still concerned the team has talked themselves into his improvement being real more than it might actually be because of the sunk-cost fallacy...but as a fungible middle reliever it could work out. I hope I'm wrong and he does well and has turned the proverbial corner. But of all the players on this roster, he's the one I feel the least enthusiastic about making it work, he's the one that instinctively gives me the most heartburn.

[Hunter McCall]

9 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

It's a fair way to look at it. I still wouldn't have kept Pagan for all the aggro he'll cause twins fans even before a pitch is thrown this season, but I can understand the logic. And I'm still concerned the team has talked themselves into his improvement being real more than it might actually be because of the sunk-cost fallacy...but as a fungible middle reliever it could work out. I hope I'm wrong and he does well and has turned the proverbial corner. But of all the players on this roster, he's the one I feel the least enthusiastic about making it work, he's the one that instinctively gives me the most heartburn.

He can be a headache! Still, to keep him around with the experience he has to take on a lower leverage role, I think he’ll perform adequately.

[Jocko87]

This may be more of a pitching development observation but it also directly affects the bullpen.  With young starting pitching depth we should be looking for places to get them major league experience and it doesn't have to be starting.  Just like they build up their arms for length I think its just as important for most players to get built up to handling major league hitters. 

Sure, there will still be guys that can go straight to the rotation but unfortunately that's a huge jump that a lot of guys don't make well.  I look at it like the NFL and QBs.  Every year we see 2-6 guys drafted and thrown into the fire as some sort of savior and what happens?  Pass/Fail and Mahomes and Burrow are the outliers.  As much as I hate to say it, I expect Jordan Love to be good in Green Bay. 

Drew Rasmussen of the Rays, who develop pitching pretty well, is a great example of this.  He did a great hour long interview with MLB radio a couple of weeks ago that got me thinking.  He was a very highly touted prospect with injury issues that bounced around a bit.  I found a short audio clip of the relevant part but the whole hour was a good listen.

Basically he was put in the bullpen to figure things out and just developed into the rotation.  Had he stayed healthy he probably goes straight to the rotation as hes always been very talented-only 74 minor league innings.  Point is, every pitcher is figuring things out and they all develop differently.  The constant is that getting major leaguers out consistantly is hard and the gap from AAA is larger than any other gap in the path.

I think we should be embracing throwing prospects into the major league bullpen.  Winder Ober, Varland and SWR should all be in this mix.  We know they have good enough stuff to be successful in good situations.  Rocco can get them started with favorable match ups and build confidence and technique from there.  Doing well with one inning?  Heres two, now three.  Now one in high leverage and so on.  Maybe they add a tick in velocity and can keep it as they build up to starting.  Maybe they become Duran and they are stuck there.  Maybe we find out they can't hack and we can cut bait earlier.  All good outcomes in my opinion that are even worth starting a service clock early. 

I'm comfortable with the bullpen this year simply because the overall pitching depth is much better.  As long as the Twins are willing to use these resources to get outs regardless of what part of the game it is they will be fine. 

[Hunter McCall]

5 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

This may be more of a pitching development observation but it also directly affects the bullpen.  With young starting pitching depth we should be looking for places to get them major league experience and it doesn't have to be starting.  Just like they build up their arms for length I think its just as important for most players to get built up to handling major league hitters. 

Sure, there will still be guys that can go straight to the rotation but unfortunately that's a huge jump that a lot of guys don't make well.  I look at it like the NFL and QBs.  Every year we see 2-6 guys drafted and thrown into the fire as some sort of savior and what happens?  Pass/Fail and Mahomes and Burrow are the outliers.  As much as I hate to say it, I expect Jordan Love to be good in Green Bay. 

Drew Rasmussen of the Rays, who develop pitching pretty well, is a great example of this.  He did a great hour long interview with MLB radio a couple of weeks ago that got me thinking.  He was a very highly touted prospect with injury issues that bounced around a bit.  I found a short audio clip of the relevant part but the whole hour was a good listen.

Basically he was put in the bullpen to figure things out and just developed into the rotation.  Had he stayed healthy he probably goes straight to the rotation as hes always been very talented-only 74 minor league innings.  Point is, every pitcher is figuring things out and they all develop differently.  The constant is that getting major leaguers out consistantly is hard and the gap from AAA is larger than any other gap in the path.

I think we should be embracing throwing prospects into the major league bullpen.  Winder Ober, Varland and SWR should all be in this mix.  We know they have good enough stuff to be successful in good situations.  Rocco can get them started with favorable match ups and build confidence and technique from there.  Doing well with one inning?  Heres two, now three.  Now one in high leverage and so on.  Maybe they add a tick in velocity and can keep it as they build up to starting.  Maybe they become Duran and they are stuck there.  Maybe we find out they can't hack and we can cut bait earlier.  All good outcomes in my opinion that are even worth starting a service clock early. 

I'm comfortable with the bullpen this year simply because the overall pitching depth is much better.  As long as the Twins are willing to use these resources to get outs regardless of what part of the game it is they will be fine. 

I like this idea, especially when rosters expand in September. Could also be possible if one of the guys you mentioned is dominant in AAA. I think we see some of those young guys out of the pen at some point this year with the intention on keeping them starters in the long run.

[wabene]

If a guy, like Ober, is expected to be the next man up in the rotation, then he needs to be in St Paul working as a starter. Jacking these guys around like they did to Dobber a couple of year ago doesn't work. Now late in the year is a good time to work young starters into the pen for the stretch run. They can go back to being starters the next year. 

[Jocko87]

I'm not a scout by any means and some pitchers won't be good for this model.  I most often see Ober mentioned as someone who needs to stay a starter and thats fine.  Part of the development is sorting that out.  There is only a one or two spots for doing this any given year and AAA needs starters too.  For the same reasons they should be playing other sports growing up, they should be situationally flexible as pitchers.  It develops different muscles.