How Good is the Twins Bullpen?

[Hunter McCall]

Maybe it doesn't need any more help?

Image courtesy of © Aaron Josefczyk-USA TODAY Sports

Derek Falvey stated last week that, despite widespread speculation, the Twins weren't in the market for adding another relief pitcher in free agency. There are still a few quality names on the market, such as Andrew Chafin and the familiar Michael Fulmer, but for the time being, the Twins seem content rolling with the crew they have now out of the bullpen. Starting at the back end, what is the outlook for potential relievers for the Twins?

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Closer
Jhoan Duran
Like last year, I expect Rocco Baldelli to use Duran in a non-traditional closer role. This turned off many fans, but the logic is sound. Stick Duran on the opposing team's best hitters late in the game. The situation could be in the 7th, 8th, or 9th inning. Duran was as nasty as they came in 2022, mixing top-end velocity (103 mph) with filthy off-speed stuff.

After only one season, Duran has proven himself to be one of the best in baseball. On the year, Duran had a 1.86 ERA, 89 punch-outs in 67.2 innings, and produced 2.8 WAR. Duran should continue to hold down the back of the bullpen and be among the most reliable guys to toe the rubber in high-leverage situations.

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Set-Up Guys
Jorge Lopez
Lopez came over from Baltimore at the deadline in 2022 and had a disappointing second half of the year in Minnesota. 2022 was Lopez's first year in the bullpen, as he was a failed starter asked to embrace a new role. In this new role, Baltimore had themselves a dominant closer who gave them 19 saves in the first half of the season, striking out 54 hitters in 48.1 innings to the tune of a 1.68 ERA.

At the time of the trade, Lopez was considered one of the best closers in baseball. It was a small sample size, but what he did was legit. Lopez is another high-velocity guy who will hit triple digits and overwhelm hitters with his filthy stuff. His problem in Minnesota was; he just walked too many batters. In just 22.2 innings with the Twins, Lopez walked 14 batters. The good news here is that the walks weren't a problem in the first half of the season, so if the Twins can make the proper adjustments to limit the walks, Lopez should be fine. With his talent, he has all the makings of being one of the best set-up men in baseball and form a nightmare 1-2 punch with Duran.

Caleb Thielbar
Old-reliable himself. Overcoming some early season jitters, Thielbar went on to provide another excellent season for the Twins. The 35-year-old lefty produced a 2.42 FIP on the year, showing his ability to limit walks and home runs. Thielbar will continue to be a staple in the Twins pen, often being asked to take the ball in a spot late in games where the opposing team has a couple of left-handed hitters due up. The years may come and go, but Thielbar's ability to be productive in his role will stay the same. Thielbar will continue to be a solid and reliable arm for Rocco to call on late in games.

Griffin Jax
Joining Duran and Lopez as starters finding a new role in the bullpen, Jax had an excellent 2022 campaign. Jax was one of the heavier-used pitchers out of the Twins bullpen, throwing 72.1 innings and sometimes asked to eat up multiple innings. Armed with a filthy slider that produced a 36.8% whiff rate, Jax finished the season with a 3.17 FIP and struck out more than a batter per inning. The success of Jax in his new role was one of the highlights of the 2022 season, and he will look to continue his growth there in 2023.

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Middle Relievers
Jovani Moran
Jovani Moran was an excellent left-handed bullpen arm in 2022. Moran was so good, and it's possible by the end of 2023, he could be asked to take on more high-leverage situations. In 2022, Moran had a 1.78 FIP and struck out 54 in 40.2 innings. At the moment, Moran is a solid left-handed middle-relief option with a ton of upside.

Trevor Megill
On the surface, Megill's numbers could have been more inspiring in 2022. However, there was a sizeable discrepancy between Megill's ERA (4.80) and his FIP (3.29), meaning he was a little unlucky in 2022 and is a good candidate for some positive regression in 2023. The massive Megill won't be the Twins' most reliable reliever, but he has a chance to be a solid option to eat innings in the middle of games.

Emilio Pagan
Sit down, take deep breaths, and relax. What I suggest next may trigger you. The Twins were absolutely right to give Pagan another shot. At the start of 2022, Pagan was the Twins' closer, which is crazy when you think about it. In those high-leverage situations, Pagan imploded. As the year progressed, Pagan slid further down the pecking order. Eventually, he found his footing and put on an excellent second half of the season. Most of his late-season work went unnoticed, as his reputation was already tarnished.

In a middle relief role, Pagan has the potential to be a valuable asset to the Minnesota Twins. Pagan was, at one time, one of the best closers in the game. At 32 years old, if he can continue to fine-tune his splitter and limit the long ball, there's no reason he can't be worth the second chance.

Jorge Alcala
Alcala is a true wildcard. Thought to be the favorite to take over the closer job after the Twins dealt Taylor Rogers for Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan last spring, Alcala suffered a season-ending elbow injury after appearing in just two games. Alcala is young and very talented. If he can return to pre-injury form, he may see more high-leverage situations. There's also the chance that Alcala losses a step and struggles. When he returns, Twins fans will have to wait to see where Alcala is.

This bullpen has loads of talent and plenty of reliable arms. If guys like Jorge Lopez and Emilio Pagan can sure a couple of things up, which I think they will, and Jorge Alcala returns to be the fireballer he was before his surgery, this bullpen has some real potential to be a top 10 bullpen in the MLB.

What are your thoughts? Should the Twins add another arm, or is the bullpen ready to roll? Let me know! 

 

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[Doctor Gast]

On paper they look pretty good & deep, except Pagan but he could prove useful in the middle innings. As long they keep him there and not so quick to promote him again.

BP can be so volatile, you never know for sure how Alcala will respond coming back from surgery. I'd also like to see a piggy-backing with Maeda with Ober to at least start '23, I think it could help both. Like Pineda/ Perez in '19.

[oregontwin]

No argument from me. Not even concerning Pagan. Watching him pitch last year I thought he had great stuff that wasn't playing well. That seems like a combination of pitch selection and location. Fixable.

[Parfigliano]

Fulmer signed with the Cubs

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Agreed with Duran being a non-traditional closer.  Expect closer by committee.

[FlyingFinn]

1 hour ago, Parfigliano said:

Fulmer signed with the Cubs

Chafin is signed as well.

Maybe the Twins have about hit their internal salary cap and won't sign anyone unless they think he's better than what we've got and is willing to play for $1 million this year.

[twinstalker]

Not all that good.  Was that the question?

[Hunter McCall]

1 hour ago, Parfigliano said:

Fulmer signed with the Cubs

Yes, this article has been queued up for about a week, so prior to Fulmer and Chafin signing.

[Hunter McCall]

Also, for more information on how the bullpen position battle could play out, @Cody Christiewrote a great article yesterday!

[D.C Twins]

Outside of Duran... lots of question marks, albeit for different reasons.... which makes it an overall liability in my opinion until proven otherwise

[Hunter McCall]

4 minutes ago, D.C Twins said:

Outside of Duran... lots of question marks, albeit for different reasons.... which makes it an overall liability in my opinion until proven otherwise

I personally think it’s a much better pen than the Twins have had. I think the top four is really solid and they have a litany of solid middle relief options behind them.

[rwilfong86]

I think Jorge Lopez bounces back and has a better season. I think the full off season with the Twins and being around other guys like Correa, Vazquez, and the other Puerto Ricans will help him feel more comfortable ad confident. On a side note his little son who has significant health problems just started playing on a basketball team. One of the nicest things I've seen in the off-season.

[D.C Twins]

2 minutes ago, Hunter McCall said:

I personally think it’s a much better pen than the Twins have had. I think the top four is really solid and they have a litany of solid middle relief options behind them.

It certainly could be (and I hope so) but....

Lopez and Griffin need to demonstrate sustained success. I have more confidence in Griffin that Lopez actually. 

Theilbar is old with questionable stuff that could fall off at anytime

Who knows about Acala's health.

I seem the remember that Moran has a problem with walks which is definitely a problem with relief pitchers and...

Pagan is... er.... um... Pagan. 

An argument could be made that all bullpens have similar issues but I would argue that bullpens for teams that intend to compete for deep playoff runs tend to have a few more reliable relievers with track records of more sustained success. 

[Parfigliano]

2 minutes ago, D.C Twins said:

It certainly could be (and I hope so) but....

Lopez and Griffin need to demonstrate sustained success. I have more confidence in Griffin that Lopez actually. 

Theilbar is old with questionable stuff that could fall off at anytime

Who knows about Acala's health.

I seem the remember that Moran has a problem with walks which is definitely a problem with relief pitchers and...

Pagan is... er.... um... Pagan. 

An argument could be made that all bullpens have similar issues but I would argue that bullpens for teams that intend to compete for deep playoff runs tend to have a few more reliable relievers with track records of more sustained success. 

Im not expecting a deep playoff run.  Truthfully with all the SP and BP questions I'd be happy with a division and at least one playoff game win.

[Hunter McCall]

31 minutes ago, rwilfong86 said:

I think Jorge Lopez bounces back and has a better season. I think the full off season with the Twins and being around other guys like Correa, Vazquez, and the other Puerto Ricans will help him feel more comfortable ad confident. On a side note his little son who has significant health problems just started playing on a basketball team. One of the nicest things I've seen in the off-season.

Agreed! I think Jorge Lopez bounces back big time and gives the Twins a phenomenal 1-2 punch with Duran!

[PatPfund]

I think they have the makings of a solid 'pen if it isn't overused.

But it seems the rose-colored glasses might have been worn too much here, though. Thielbar had a great (fabulous) second half, but the first half was pretty rough (he entered July with an ERA over 5, and no it wasn't all April), and he's in the back half of his 30s. Trevor Megill may have been unlucky, or he just might be one of the pitchers whose FIP (which is a bit of analytics more than a real stat) never syncs up with his ERA. Griffin Jax was prone to getting thumped when overused.

But I guess what I like about the 'pen and the whole pitching staff is that they are far deeper in the rotation, and that means more quality arms pushed back to help elsewhere, because at least two of the pitchers you mention are likely to melt down at some point or get hurt, or both. And probably more than two. But the help in St Paul should be much better than recent years.

[Oldtimer]

It seems Ober is the odd man out if they go with a five man rotation. Where will he fit in or how will he be used throughout the season.

[Hunter McCall]

12 minutes ago, PatPfund said:

I think they have the makings of a solid 'pen if it isn't overused.

But it seems the rose-colored glasses might have been worn too much here, though. Thielbar had a great (fabulous) second half, but the first half was pretty rough (he entered July with an ERA over 5, and no it wasn't all April), and he's in the back half of his 30s. Trevor Megill may have been unlucky, or he just might be one of the pitchers whose FIP (which is a bit of analytics more than a real stat) never syncs up with his ERA. Griffin Jax was prone to getting thumped when overused.

But I guess what I like about the 'pen and the whole pitching staff is that they are far deeper in the rotation, and that means more quality arms pushed back to help elsewhere, because at least two of the pitchers you mention are likely to melt down at some point or get hurt, or both. And probably more than two. But the help in St Paul should be much better than recent years.

I agree! As far as Thielbar is concerned, I’m still a believer. His statcast page remains very solid, and even when he was seemingly struggling his underlying numbers indicated positive regression which eventually came. I do agree that the depth feels more promising and lessens the chance of overusing some guys!

[Hunter McCall]

12 minutes ago, Oldtimer said:

It seems Ober is the odd man out if they go with a five man rotation. Where will he fit in or how will he be used throughout the season.

I agree that he’s the odd man out. I think he starts in AAA. Might be a good place for him anyhow. Let him get his legs under him. The rotation has injury issues (Ober not being exempt from that) so if the need arises, Ober would be among the best 6th rotational arm in the MLB. We’ll see how the Twins play this but they’ve already said he’s not going to the bullpen and they aren’t going with a 6 man rotation, so I really don’t see another option.

[DocBauer]

On paper and potential, I like this pen a lot. Agreed there are some IF's, but to begin a season, I'm not sure anyone just KNOWS they've got a tremendous, world-beating pen in place. 

Duran is special. Only injury or some "yips" will derail him. His arm is that special.

I don't know that Lopez is as good as his 1st half with Baltimore was. Those numbers were a half season of HOF caliber. But he's just not as mediocre as he was with the Twins. The STUFF is there! I find it humorous that so many are down on him after the trade...SSS as a RP...when considering how many great closers and BP arms the Twins have had after their conversion. But they were developed, not traded for mid season. How about we allow a "settling down" period for him. What a 1-2 punch is possible with him and Duran!

Thelbar is going to run out of gas at some point. But I don't think it's going to happen in 2023. From what I've read...don't ask me for a link...even when he's struggled a bit, his underlying numbers said he wasn't bad.

Moran is a Wild Card. He's been pretty much outstanding in his milb career, but stunk at St Paul in 2022. But he was pretty much outstanding with the Twins. He may fight BB a bit, but K's and soft contact mitigate that. I think he's got a bright future if he can learn to handle LH a bit better.

Alcala is also a WC. Is he now 100%? I have to believe so based on the FO attitude towards the pen. He was really good to finish 2021, looked good initially in 2022 ST, and IIRC, he had dusted off or tweaked a 3rd offering late in 2021 to alow his strong finish. He could be HUGE in 2023 and going forward....potentially. 

Jax was pretty damn good as a virtual rookie making the conversion to the pen. His inherited runners numbers don't look so good. And he needs to improve on that. But inherited runners is one of those things that can come from experience, but also a random or luck factor. Again, like a lot of this pen, we're talking about good arms with good production still learning and adapting to their role.

I Iiked what I saw of Megill in ST and his first few appearances in 2022. His stuff is nasty at times. He might be a late bloomer as a quality mid guy, but I would have been OK letting him off the 40 man for a better option. Still am.

I would have dumped Pagan mid season last year. But right or wrong, smart or stubborn, the FO still sees value in him with numbers and his "new pitch" as a middle man, based on his end to 2022. I would have spent his $3.5M plus more on someone else. I sure hope the FO is right on this one.

I LOVE the potential depth here though. The FO might still see Winder as a rotation arm, but they kept him as a long/middle man to begin 2022. Might they do so again? I think Sands has some nice stuff, but I could see him being a much better RP than starter. I don't know that I'd give up the very young Henriquez as a SP just yet, but his mix just screams out as an excellent BP piece.

There's actually a lot to like here, and be optimistic about, even in regard to Pagan...which makes me shudder. I wouldn't be shocked if someone like Megill is sent to AAA once ST is done for Coulombe to be added as a 3rd LH BP arm. Nor would I be shocked for someone like Winder to be added for a role. I love the potential, and the depth. But I would have spent some $ for one more add to the pen that might pay off. 

[miracleb]

I am really looking forward to seeing Moran....I think he will end up towards the top of this list if he stays healthy.  Same with Alcala....but I am more concerned about him making it thru Spring training healthy. 

[TwinsDr2021]

9 hours ago, Hunter McCall said:

I agree that he’s the odd man out. I think he starts in AAA. Might be a good place for him anyhow. Let him get his legs under him. The rotation has injury issues (Ober not being exempt from that) so if the need arises, Ober would be among the best 6th rotational arm in the MLB. We’ll see how the Twins play this but they’ve already said he’s not going to the bullpen and they aren’t going with a 6 man rotation, so I really don’t see another option.

Ober will be 28 in July, there is no reason he should be pitching in the minors, NONE!

[Hunter McCall]

5 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Ober will be 28 in July, there is no reason he should be pitching in the minors, NONE!

Except for the fact that the Twins have 5 guys better than him and he’s coming off a season in which he threw 56 innings and has never thrown more than 92 innings in a season in his life. I understand the want to have him in the majors right away, but it may be good to let him slowly work up. Maybe they can preserve him a little longer that way.

[Hunter McCall]

8 hours ago, DocBauer said:

On paper and potential, I like this pen a lot. Agreed there are some IF's, but to begin a season, I'm not sure anyone just KNOWS they've got a tremendous, world-beating pen in place. 

Duran is special. Only injury or some "yips" will derail him. His arm is that special.

I don't know that Lopez is as good as his 1st half with Baltimore was. Those numbers were a half season of HOF caliber. But he's just not as mediocre as he was with the Twins. The STUFF is there! I find it humorous that so many are down on him after the trade...SSS as a RP...when considering how many great closers and BP arms the Twins have had after their conversion. But they were developed, not traded for mid season. How about we allow a "settling down" period for him. What a 1-2 punch is possible with him and Duran!

Thelbar is going to run out of gas at some point. But I don't think it's going to happen in 2023. From what I've read...don't ask me for a link...even when he's struggled a bit, his underlying numbers said he wasn't bad.

Moran is a Wild Card. He's been pretty much outstanding in his milb career, but stunk at St Paul in 2022. But he was pretty much outstanding with the Twins. He may fight BB a bit, but K's and soft contact mitigate that. I think he's got a bright future if he can learn to handle LH a bit better.

Alcala is also a WC. Is he now 100%? I have to believe so based on the FO attitude towards the pen. He was really good to finish 2021, looked good initially in 2022 ST, and IIRC, he had dusted off or tweaked a 3rd offering late in 2021 to alow his strong finish. He could be HUGE in 2023 and going forward....potentially. 

Jax was pretty damn good as a virtual rookie making the conversion to the pen. His inherited runners numbers don't look so good. And he needs to improve on that. But inherited runners is one of those things that can come from experience, but also a random or luck factor. Again, like a lot of this pen, we're talking about good arms with good production still learning and adapting to their role.

I Iiked what I saw of Megill in ST and his first few appearances in 2022. His stuff is nasty at times. He might be a late bloomer as a quality mid guy, but I would have been OK letting him off the 40 man for a better option. Still am.

I would have dumped Pagan mid season last year. But right or wrong, smart or stubborn, the FO still sees value in him with numbers and his "new pitch" as a middle man, based on his end to 2022. I would have spent his $3.5M plus more on someone else. I sure hope the FO is right on this one.

I LOVE the potential depth here though. The FO might still see Winder as a rotation arm, but they kept him as a long/middle man to begin 2022. Might they do so again? I think Sands has some nice stuff, but I could see him being a much better RP than starter. I don't know that I'd give up the very young Henriquez as a SP just yet, but his mix just screams out as an excellent BP piece.

There's actually a lot to like here, and be optimistic about, even in regard to Pagan...which makes me shudder. I wouldn't be shocked if someone like Megill is sent to AAA once ST is done for Coulombe to be added as a 3rd LH BP arm. Nor would I be shocked for someone like Winder to be added for a role. I love the potential, and the depth. But I would have spent some $ for one more add to the pen that might pay off. 

Nice post! Yes, I agree with most everything you said. The Twins did say yesterday they don’t plan to convert any starters to bullpen arms, and expect all of them to build up as starters. I think that’s a good thing as I don’t think any have shown a need to transition to the pen. Jordan Balazovic could be an option if he disappoints again this year, but that would be likely in 2024. There’s a lot more promise to this pen than last year when we had a battle between Alcala and Duffey for the closer job!

[TwinsDr2021]

32 minutes ago, Hunter McCall said:

Except for the fact that the Twins have 5 guys better than him and he’s coming off a season in which he threw 56 innings and has never thrown more than 92 innings in a season in his life. I understand the want to have him in the majors right away, but it may be good to let him slowly work up. Maybe they can preserve him a little longer that way.

First besides 8 starts in 2020, I would disagree that Maeda has proven to be better than him. Second I didn't say he had to be in the rotation, What are you preserving a 28 year old pitcher for?

[Hunter McCall]

1 minute ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

First besides 8 starts in 2020, I would disagree that Maeda has proven to be better than him. Second I didn't say he had to be in the rotation, What are you preserving a 28 year old pitcher for?

I think since he’s been an effective starter and has plenty of team control they want to keep him there. He just doesn’t fit in the rotation to start 2023. That’s why St. Paul is the best place for him to start.

[Karbo]

10 hours ago, PatPfund said:

I think they have the makings of a solid 'pen if it isn't overused.

But it seems the rose-colored glasses might have been worn too much here, though. Thielbar had a great (fabulous) second half, but the first half was pretty rough (he entered July with an ERA over 5, and no it wasn't all April), and he's in the back half of his 30s. Trevor Megill may have been unlucky, or he just might be one of the pitchers whose FIP (which is a bit of analytics more than a real stat) never syncs up with his ERA. Griffin Jax was prone to getting thumped when overused.

But I guess what I like about the 'pen and the whole pitching staff is that they are far deeper in the rotation, and that means more quality arms pushed back to help elsewhere, because at least two of the pitchers you mention are likely to melt down at some point or get hurt, or both. And probably more than two. But the help in St Paul should be much better than recent years.

I am very interested to see how Rocco handles the staff this year. Last year the bullpen was overused, mostly because of 2 guys that had a hard time getting thru the 5th, but also partly due to the "3 times thru the lineup" decisions Rocco made.

[Hunter McCall]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

I am very interested to see how Rocco handles the staff this year. Last year the bullpen was overused, mostly because of 2 guys that had a hard time getting thru the 5th, but also partly due to the "3 times thru the lineup" decisions Rocco made.

I think the over utilization will be much less of a factor this year for that exact reason. Without Bundy and Archer in the rotation, the Twins have starters that should push to give six innings every day. Plus, I like the depth of the pen much more this year. You’re absolutely right!

[jmlease1]

I think there's an average amount of question marks here, so that seems about right. I'm surprised so many people think Jax is a question mark: he was more than solid last season, is in his prime, and the changes to his pitch mix and move the 'pen seems to suit him very well. I'm not too worried about Duran, Thielbar, and Jax.

Alcala has the talent, but needs to show he can recover from injury. Lopez needs to show he's first half guy not post-trade guy. So some questions, but serious upside.

Moran is middle relief until he shows better command/control, but he's certainly good enough to hold down that slot right now. that change-up is deadly, his splits are fine and he can pitch multiple innings. Only question is really his ceiling: middle relief if he's always this wild, higher leverage if he locks it down (and out of the league if he loses it entirely, but...that's every reliever, right?)

Megill & Pagan have the most questions, but they're also the most fringe parts of the 'pen. Megill has shown signs, but is a little too hittable to be a consistent reliever right now. If he locks it down, he'll be a guy, if not they'll cycle him out for Sands or someone like that. Pagan has the stuff, but no one in Twins fandom has any faith in him for high leverage situations. (for good reason) In middle relief, he's probably ok, but I still wouldn't have kept him.

the ceiling is pretty good on this group, the floor isn't bad, and Duran is the only one where it'd be particularly crushing if he flamed out/got hurt.

[LastOnePicked]

"As the year progressed, Pagan slid further down the pecking order. Eventually, he found his footing and put on an excellent second half of the season. Most of his late-season work went unnoticed, as his reputation was already tarnished."

I have to admit, this often-repeated faint praise of Pagan confuses me. Wouldn't almost ANY MLB reliever appear to be an improved pitcher when placed exclusively in low-leverage situations? It's like having a special bench hitter you only give at-bats when the opponent's position players are pitching in a blowout. Of course they're going to look good.