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Can Nick Gordon Handle Third Base?


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25 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

He isn't a starter, he is a backup.  If Miranda goes down, Farmer will start.

IF Miranda can't handle 3B
IF Farmer gets pushed into that position
IF the Twins do not make a move for another 3B
IF Farmer puts up terrible numbers while playing 3B

Then we can talk...

Why not platoon Gordon and Farmer at third if Miranda isn't there? Farmer is excellent against lefties and Gordon is good against righties, and they both have EXTREME splits 

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18 hours ago, Ted Wiedmann said:

For his career Gordon has a 112 OPS+ vs. righties, even with regression he should still be a league average bat, my point is if we hit an injury situation there's no reason Farmer and Gordon can't platoon third base, at least until Gordon wants to stop hitting. 

I think Gordon's arm is fine and the range needed for third is quite a bit less than up the middle, so even if he's struggled in the infield he might be a better fit at 3B than SS or 2B

A 112 OPS+ built on a .344 BABIP. I find that to be a likely unsustainable number. In 2021, when his BABIP was .300 against righties he had an 88 OPS+. His BABIP against righties in 2022 was .364, and I think that's incredibly unlikely to be sustained. I mean that was 6th in baseball for hitters with at least 190 PAs against righties. Even a .344 BABIP would've put him top 25 in baseball. A .300 BABIP against righties is top 125ish.

I think the .300 BABIP is a more likely outcome than the .344, let alone .364. You may not agree. But if he's got a .300 BABIP against righties I'm taking Farmer in an everyday role at 3B over Gordon.

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I can see Ted's point of wanting a lefty bat to platoon at 3B. Two years ago I thought Gordon was all washed up because I knew Gordon wasn't a MLB SS. But he surprised me by playing passable MLB OF on the fly. He might surprise me again & have the glove (which isn't easy) to play 3B. But as much as I'd like Gordon's bat at 3B, I don't think he has the arm to play there. But who knows.

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Gallo and Gordon and Koskie and my mom are all very fleeting, short-term answers to filling in Miranda's position this year.

It should go Miranda backed up by Farmer and then to AAA guys for anything longer than 2-3 days. Lee should spend the spring at SS and 3B to cover the only two cases that matter: Correa gets hurt or Correa stays healthy. If Correa goes down then Farmer gets the job short-term until Lee proves he can carry it long-term. If Correa stays healthy for the next three years then Lee moves to 3B.   Lewis should spend the year at SS and 2B, and Martin should be at 2B and LF. Julien should be down at AA playing 1b, lf, dh and maybe some other infield spots. Discussing Gallo or Gordon at 3B is third catcher country. 

 

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20 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

A 122 OPS+ built on a .344 BABIP. I find that to be a likely unsustainable number. In 2021, when his BABIP was .300 against righties he had an 88 OPS+. His BABIP against righties in 2022 was .364, and I think that's incredibly unlikely to be sustained. I mean that was 6th in baseball for hitters with at least 190 PAs against righties. Even a .344 BABIP would've put him top 25 in baseball. A .300 BABIP against righties is top 125ish.

I think the .300 BABIP is a more likely outcome than the .344, let alone .364. You may not agree. But if he's got a .300 BABIP against righties I'm taking Farmer in an everyday role at 3B over Gordon.

Gordon also placed in the 80th percentile in average EV with a 61st percentile sprint speed which will help carry his babip. 

Also worth noting Gordon in 2022 had a .255 wOBA against the shift and a .395 wOBA with no shift. There may be room for Gordon to improve without making improvements. 

 

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6 minutes ago, Ted Wiedmann said:

Gordon also placed in the 80th percentile in average EV with a 61st percentile sprint speed which will help carry his babip. 

Also worth noting Gordon in 2022 had a .255 wOBA against the shift and a .395 wOBA with no shift. There may be room for Gordon to improve without making improvements. 

 

And that's why he'd be on my opening day roster. But I don't think he maintains those numbers, let alone improves on them. The projection systems don't think he improves either. Fangraphs has him at a 99 wRC+ this year. I don't love projection systems in the grand scheme of things, but I think he's closer to the .240 hitter he was in 2021 than the .272 hitter he was in 2022. I'd love to be wrong, and he's earned a chance to prove me wrong. But I think the .253/.301/.399 triple slash fangraphs has him projected for is about right. In that case I'm taking Farmer and his glove with their predicted .245/.301/.365 triple slash. 

Gordon has earned a shot to prove last year wasn't fake, and he really can maintain that production, but I'm just not sold. Teams know he swings at everything now and he has to make real adjustments to just maintain his 2022 production. We'll see if he can do it. I hope he can. Just wouldn't bet on it. But that's why they play the games and don't just go on my estimations.

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1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

FDG, are you sold on Kepler, Gallo and Taylor? Do you think those three have the potential to add more value to the Twins over the next several years than Gordon?

So, if Gordon has a rough spring at the plate (which btw still might be a better spring than the other three), do you just DFA him?  Or trade him for junk?  What if the any or all of the trio of one year rental OFs have a bad spring at the plate? Do they get DFA’d or traded as well? Or are they “defensively” so strong it makes up for their anemia at the plate?

By his actual play last season - at the plate, in the field, on the bases, and in the dugout/clubhouse - Gordon should be considered our incumbent LFer until he’s dethroned by someone playing clearly better. 

I think you are asking the wrong question.  At the moment, Kepler, Gallo, and Kepler do not figure into the Twins long term plans (though I could easily see Gallo playing his way into those plans).  That being said, Kepler and Gallo could easily provide more value than Gordon next year.   Taylor doesn't really factor into this discussion as his role is pretty much defined as 4th OF and CF backup.

Gordan's track record in the minors is very underwhelming.  His major league career OPS+ is 101.  Not a lot to write home about.  At best he is a league average player.  At best.  The Twins have a handful of guys on the 40-man that could push Gordon out of the picture. 

To answer your questions in the 2nd paragraph:
- Probably not
- No, probably a low level prospect
- Except Taylor, a relatively short leash, yes.  But all three have a longer track record than Gordon.  
- Traded possibly.  DFA'd doubtful (see previous answer). 
- Anemia being a relative term, yes.  

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4 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I think you are asking the wrong question.  At the moment, Kepler, Gallo, and Kepler do not figure into the Twins long term plans (though I could easily see Gallo playing his way into those plans).  That being said, Kepler and Gallo could easily provide more value than Gordon next year.   Taylor doesn't really factor into this discussion as his role is pretty much defined as 4th OF and CF backup.

Gordan's track record in the minors is very underwhelming.  His major league career OPS+ is 101.  Not a lot to write home about.  At best he is a league average player.  At best.  The Twins have a handful of guys on the 40-man that could push Gordon out of the picture. 

To answer your questions in the 2nd paragraph:
- Probably not
- No, probably a low level prospect
- Except Taylor, a relatively short leash, yes.  But all three have a longer track record than Gordon.  
- Traded possibly.  DFA'd doubtful (see previous answer). 
- Anemia being a relative term, yes.  

Fair enough!  Let’s just hope role ultimately can get settled on the field by the quality of play.

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I’m not sure I’ve ever seen such an inconsequential player be obsessed over at this level.

Jose Miranda isn’t giving way to Gordon at third base, for crying out loud.  Why are we trying so hard to shoehorn this guy into the lineup?

Miranda was just one of the best hitters in all of minor league baseball before his promotion.  A top 100 prospect.  He showed great promise at the plate last year.  He has a sustained track record of being a good hitter in the high minors.  Gordon has struggled to drag his OPS over .750 going back to rookie ball, has shown a little doubles power for about 5 minutes, and is a poor defender.  He’s also 28 years old and people talk about him like he’s still a prospect.

But…for some reason we’re very concerned about Miranda not cutting it…so maybe we should get NICK GORDON ready for the 3rd base after signing Joey Gallo, trading for Kyle Farmer, have Royce Lewis returning, and Brooks Lee a stones throw from the majors.  

Hang on, I need to make sure I haven’t gotten reeled in by Randball….Nope, this is serious.

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2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

A 122 OPS+ built on a .344 BABIP. I find that to be a likely unsustainable number. In 2021, when his BABIP was .300 against righties he had an 88 OPS+. His BABIP against righties in 2022 was .364, and I think that's incredibly unlikely to be sustained. I mean that was 6th in baseball for hitters with at least 190 PAs against righties. Even a .344 BABIP would've put him top 25 in baseball. A .300 BABIP against righties is top 125ish.

I think the .300 BABIP is a more likely outcome than the .344, let alone .364. You may not agree. But if he's got a .300 BABIP against righties I'm taking Farmer in an everyday role at 3B over Gordon.

'21 was Gordon's 1st season in MLB & he was used everywhere except C & 1B so he was learning many positions while at the same time adapting to MLB pitching. In '22 he was again used all over, but this time he had a year of experience in the field and at the plate. He showed a dramatic improvement at the plate going from an OPS+ of 79 to 113.  His wOBA was .321 & est wOBA .333. I see nothing that indicates we should be worried about his production going forward. Also, with a young player I'm far more concerned that they are showing improvement & by any measure as I said earlier, Gordon showed a dramatic improvement in '22.

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24 minutes ago, Beast said:

I’m not sure I’ve ever seen such an inconsequential player be obsessed over at this level.

Jose Miranda isn’t giving way to Gordon at third base, for crying out loud.  Why are we trying so hard to shoehorn this guy into the lineup?

Miranda was just one of the best hitters in all of minor league baseball before his promotion.  A top 100 prospect.  He showed great promise at the plate last year.  He has a sustained track record of being a good hitter in the high minors.  Gordon has struggled to drag his OPS over .750 going back to rookie ball, has shown a little doubles power for about 5 minutes, and is a poor defender.  He’s also 28 years old and people talk about him like he’s still a prospect.

But…for some reason we’re very concerned about Miranda not cutting it…so maybe we should get NICK GORDON ready for the 3rd base after signing Joey Gallo, trading for Kyle Farmer, have Royce Lewis returning, and Brooks Lee a stones throw from the majors.  

Hang on, I need to make sure I haven’t gotten reeled in by Randball….Nope, this is serious.

Beast, most of the discussion here wasnt to actively replace Miranda, just conjecture over whether or not Gordon would be his backup.

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11 minutes ago, MGX said:

'21 was Gordon's 1st season in MLB & he was used everywhere except C & 1B so he was learning many positions while at the same time adapting to MLB pitching. In '22 he was again used all over, but this time he had a year of experience & in the field and at the plate. He showed a dramatic improvement at the plate going from an OPS+ of 79 to 113.  His wOBA was .321 & est wOBA .333. I see nothing that indicates we should be worried about his production going forward. Also, with a young player I'm far more concerned that they are showing improvement & by any measure as I said earlier, Gordon showed a dramatic improvement in '22.

I hope you're right. His 7th percentile BB rate, 6th percentile chase rate, 28th percentile whiff rate, and 34th percentile K rate (along with the BABIP numbers I already pointed out) are indications to me that we should be worried about his performance going forward.

He swings way more than the average hitter. He swings and misses way more than the average hitter. He chases pitches way more than the average hitter. The league knows that now. He swings at the first pitch significantly more than the average hitter. Over 40% of the time. Teams know that now. The league is going to adjust and he's going to have to adjust to them. He's going to see a bunch of pitches outside the zone moving forward and he's going to have to learn to lay off them or his numbers will absolutely go down significantly. It is hard to maintain big time production when you swing at everything, and you swing and miss a lot.

I hope you're right. I hope there's no dip in his production at all. But I'm not betting on it, and there are very real reasons to have concerns about it. The key is going to be learning to lay off low breaking balls. I'm sure he's been made aware of that, and hopefully he's prepared to do it. Only time will tell.

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1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

I hope you're right. His 7th percentile BB rate, 6th percentile chase rate, 28th percentile whiff rate, and 34th percentile K rate (along with the BABIP numbers I already pointed out) are indications to me that we should be worried about his performance going forward.

He swings way more than the average hitter. He swings and misses way more than the average hitter. He chases pitches way more than the average hitter. The league knows that now. He swings at the first pitch significantly more than the average hitter. Over 40% of the time. Teams know that now. The league is going to adjust and he's going to have to adjust to them. He's going to see a bunch of pitches outside the zone moving forward and he's going to have to learn to lay off them or his numbers will absolutely go down significantly. It is hard to maintain big time production when you swing at everything, and you swing and miss a lot.

I hope you're right. I hope there's no dip in his production at all. But I'm not betting on it, and there are very real reasons to have concerns about it. The key is going to be learning to lay off low breaking balls. I'm sure he's been made aware of that, and hopefully he's prepared to do it. Only time will tell.

Fair enough - valid points, but to me that's a part of any young hitters maturation process.

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1 minute ago, MGX said:

Fair enough - valid points, but to me that's a part of any young hitters maturation process.

He's young in terms of MLB experience, but he's not young in general. He's 27. To me that's not young in terms of his maturation process. 2017 was his only minor league season that showed any real patience at the plate. Otherwise, he's basically been a 5% BB% guy throughout his career. Which is the bottom 10% of the league type of stuff. It's certainly not impossible that he makes a major shift at the age of 27, but it's also not likely. It's far more likely that this is just the type of hitter he is, and he'll rely heavily on needing to maximize every ball he puts in play. Thus his sky high BABIP is one of the biggest keys to his success, and I don't think he can maintain top 10 in all of baseball BABIPs.

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4 hours ago, Ted Wiedmann said:

Gallo in 724 3B innings: -7 drs, -3.5 uzr, -2 oaa, 18 errors.  
 

You’re right to be worried about Gordon’s plate discipline, but the babip could stick stick if his exit velocities from last year continue, and those tend to be more sustainable. Maybe the Twins don’t see him as an infielder long term his best position is 2B imo. I’m not a fan of Gordon in the outfield especially with Taylor on the roster now. 

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Yup. 3rd is his worst position statistically.

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OK, I'll bite after reading everyone's opinion. 

I absolutely agree Gordon still has to prove he can adapt to swing issues and his BABIP numbers. I've been a supporter of his previously, and his 2021 and 2022 numbers indicate patience, opportunity, and continued development seemed to turn him in to a nice utility option. It was his nature to do the same thing in milb, start slow, and then adapt and produce better. He's done the same thing in his 1st 2 ML seasons. SUSTAINABILITY is a question we don't know until 2023 actually gets underway. Not sure that can be doubted by anyone.

And despite Gordon being drafted as a top SS prospect, for whatever reason(s), he's clearly better as an OF with the ability to cover SS/2B here and there without embarrassing himself. And frankly, unless his bat/offense grows/maintains, I'm not sure how long he remains a Twin simply due to the number of options in the INF and OF available and arriving to a ballpark near you soon.

That's up to Gordon.

But I have to admit I see the logic in Ted's OP. Despite having virtually ZERO experience at the milb or ML level at 3B, Gordon does have a vast number of games played in the INF. Theoretically, he has the speed, quickness, and athleticism at 3B to just "get in front of the damn ball" and then make a throw with an arm that is still debatable, IMO. And just fielding the ball is #1. 

He is NO ANSWER to 3B in any manner. And I don't think Ted is saying that. I believe what's been said here is: if he continues to show he can hit RHP, and can cover 3B OK, shouldn't he be considered as an option if Miranda needs a day off or has a IL stint where he and Farmer can cover the spot for a week or so?

I'd argue that Julien, on the 40 man, would be brought up if there was an actual IL stint. But I'd also argue that it would be smart to actually play Gordon at 3B in ST to just SEE if he could handle it. I have no doubt Farmer is the better defender. And I'm not of the belief Gordon has any future at the spot. But I'm also of the belief you try to maximize your roster to the greatest extent that you can.

So yeah, I'd toss Gordon out at 3B in ST to just see if he can play it to any acceptable level. And if he can, and if he actually continues to hit and make a few things happen offensively, then I have another way to adjust my roster on a daily basis. 

A lot of IF's with Gordon to be sure, including this idea. But why not see if you can find a way to maximize your 13 man player roster in a new way? Isn't part of ST just seeing what you have?

 

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2 hours ago, DocBauer said:

OK, I'll bite after reading everyone's opinion. 

I absolutely agree Gordon still has to prove he can adapt to swing issues and his BABIP numbers. I've been a supporter of his previously, and his 2021 and 2022 numbers indicate patience, opportunity, and continued development seemed to turn him in to a nice utility option. It was his nature to do the same thing in milb, start slow, and then adapt and produce better. He's done the same thing in his 1st 2 ML seasons. SUSTAINABILITY is a question we don't know until 2023 actually gets underway. Not sure that can be doubted by anyone.

And despite Gordon being drafted as a top SS prospect, for whatever reason(s), he's clearly better as an OF with the ability to cover SS/2B here and there without embarrassing himself. And frankly, unless his bat/offense grows/maintains, I'm not sure how long he remains a Twin simply due to the number of options in the INF and OF available and arriving to a ballpark near you soon.

That's up to Gordon.

But I have to admit I see the logic in Ted's OP. Despite having virtually ZERO experience at the milb or ML level at 3B, Gordon does have a vast number of games played in the INF. Theoretically, he has the speed, quickness, and athleticism at 3B to just "get in front of the damn ball" and then make a throw with an arm that is still debatable, IMO. And just fielding the ball is #1. 

He is NO ANSWER to 3B in any manner. And I don't think Ted is saying that. I believe what's been said here is: if he continues to show he can hit RHP, and can cover 3B OK, shouldn't he be considered as an option if Miranda needs a day off or has a IL stint where he and Farmer can cover the spot for a week or so?

I'd argue that Julien, on the 40 man, would be brought up if there was an actual IL stint. But I'd also argue that it would be smart to actually play Gordon at 3B in ST to just SEE if he could handle it. I have no doubt Farmer is the better defender. And I'm not of the belief Gordon has any future at the spot. But I'm also of the belief you try to maximize your roster to the greatest extent that you can.

So yeah, I'd toss Gordon out at 3B in ST to just see if he can play it to any acceptable level. And if he can, and if he actually continues to hit and make a few things happen offensively, then I have another way to adjust my roster on a daily basis. 

A lot of IF's with Gordon to be sure, including this idea. But why not see if you can find a way to maximize your 13 man player roster in a new way? Isn't part of ST just seeing what you have?

 

I agree.  And I would not bet against him.  May never be an everyday starter...not everyone can.  But he has real value to the team. He has improved many times in his minor league career.  Just because he has a high BABIP does not mean he can not adjust or continue to be an above average player.  Solid utility player and good teammate.  He has already proven many wrong..and I believe will continue to do so.

 

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I think it's silly to compare his throws from 2B to throws from 3B because 2nd basemen don't need to throw hard. But his arm from SS was just fine as was his nearly 100 mph throws from the OF.

Any SS worth his salt can play 3B. There's not one credible source for the statements that are being made that Nick will never play the infield again. That's pure honkey-tonk. If Farmer, Polanco, Correa or Miranda get injured then Nick can play anywhere in the infield. If any player in the OF gets injured then Nick can play anywhere in the outfield.

Why in the world would the Twins trade Arraez if Gordon couldn't fill his shoes and more.

The negative comments about Nick's many talents just don't make any sense. He adjusted his swing to provide more power as he was asked to do, and he has one of the nicest swings on the team. And he knows how to bunt and run the bases. IMO too many fans are looking at a gift horse in the mouth. He was a bona fide 1st round pick that had a slow track of development that's finally paying off. Maybe some fans simply don't like that he now displays more talent and durability than some of their favorite prospects. I guess we'll see who produces, plays which positions and gets traded first.

I like Nick's hair color and I'm not going to trash him over it  it took some getting used to but it grew on me and doesn't bother me any more. I like it more than ever because I realized his talents are worth their weight in gold.

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12 hours ago, DocBauer said:

OK, I'll bite after reading everyone's opinion. 

I absolutely agree Gordon still has to prove he can adapt to swing issues and his BABIP numbers. I've been a supporter of his previously, and his 2021 and 2022 numbers indicate patience, opportunity, and continued development seemed to turn him in to a nice utility option. It was his nature to do the same thing in milb, start slow, and then adapt and produce better. He's done the same thing in his 1st 2 ML seasons. SUSTAINABILITY is a question we don't know until 2023 actually gets underway. Not sure that can be doubted by anyone.

And despite Gordon being drafted as a top SS prospect, for whatever reason(s), he's clearly better as an OF with the ability to cover SS/2B here and there without embarrassing himself. And frankly, unless his bat/offense grows/maintains, I'm not sure how long he remains a Twin simply due to the number of options in the INF and OF available and arriving to a ballpark near you soon.

That's up to Gordon.

But I have to admit I see the logic in Ted's OP. Despite having virtually ZERO experience at the milb or ML level at 3B, Gordon does have a vast number of games played in the INF. Theoretically, he has the speed, quickness, and athleticism at 3B to just "get in front of the damn ball" and then make a throw with an arm that is still debatable, IMO. And just fielding the ball is #1. 

He is NO ANSWER to 3B in any manner. And I don't think Ted is saying that. I believe what's been said here is: if he continues to show he can hit RHP, and can cover 3B OK, shouldn't he be considered as an option if Miranda needs a day off or has a IL stint where he and Farmer can cover the spot for a week or so?

I'd argue that Julien, on the 40 man, would be brought up if there was an actual IL stint. But I'd also argue that it would be smart to actually play Gordon at 3B in ST to just SEE if he could handle it. I have no doubt Farmer is the better defender. And I'm not of the belief Gordon has any future at the spot. But I'm also of the belief you try to maximize your roster to the greatest extent that you can.

So yeah, I'd toss Gordon out at 3B in ST to just see if he can play it to any acceptable level. And if he can, and if he actually continues to hit and make a few things happen offensively, then I have another way to adjust my roster on a daily basis. 

A lot of IF's with Gordon to be sure, including this idea. But why not see if you can find a way to maximize your 13 man player roster in a new way? Isn't part of ST just seeing what you have?

 

agree 100%. If Gordon can be passable at 3b, then he becomes an option for if Miranda needs a day off or if there's a particularly nasty RHP coming up, etc. the more positional flexibility Gordon has, the better off he is, and the better off the Twins are in maximizing the utility of their bench.

I don't think he'll be a pick to be a regular at 3B. Ever. I think if Miranda goes to the IL for any length of time, they will call up Julien, or Martin, or Lee (or possibly Lewis, depending on where we are in the season) and manage time at 3B primarily with the call-up and/or Farmer. But as a LH bat option off the bench who could slide in at 3B if needed...that would be helpful.

I would also test Gordon at 3B in Spring Training. We know he can play LF. He can be the emergency backup in CF. He's not going to be good defensively in the infield, but if he can be not-awful then it opens up options even for pinch-hitting. He's out of options, he's got a decent hit tool that's improved now that he's finally got his health in order (that gastro-intestinal stuff was pretty rough on him) that makes him a useful player, especially if he can pass at as many positions as possible.

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18 hours ago, Ted Wiedmann said:

He’s out of options so his leash is until the Twins are ready to lose him on waivers to another team, they have prospects ready but Gordon definitely has some appealing traits 

I see a good chance that Gordon is a trade chip in spring training with the addition of Taylor and some prospects that aren't far away over in St. Paul

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Gordon is a utility (super-utility if you prefer) player who happens to have speed/range. Up to now, the roster has provided nearly every-day opportunities to play in spots that benefit from the range…outfield and middle infield. I think the club would not hesitate to give him 3B starts going forward if circumstances change. He has the arm, no problem there.

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There are several scenarios in which Miranda is no longer the Twins’ regular third baseman—1) he is injured 2) he is needed as the everyday first baseman 3) he fails to field the position well enough and 4) someone forces their way into the lineup at third base. 
 

If Miranda is not in the conversation long term, it is possible the Twins turn to Gordon at third. Nick would appear to have the skills to be an adequate defender there, despite having very limited experience. There are a bunch of high profile infield prospects (Lee, Lewis and Julien) who have been projected as possible third basemen. None of them would be considered experienced at the hot corner. 
 

I expect a short-term absence for Miranda would be covered by Kyle Farmer, with Gordon as the backup. 

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