Rumor: Twins interested in Brad Hand?

[Trov]

If he is willing to sign minor league offer at this point, I would bring him in, but I would not offer him full major league contract.  He used to be one of the best, but has had some rough years.  As the article points out, even his numbers last year looked good, but may have been more smoke and mirror kind of thing.  

The fact AAA is in MN where he is from this could lead to him willing to make that agreement.  I am sure he will hold out hoping for major league contract as teams starting dealing with injuries or poor spring trainings. 

[DJL44]

12 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

No depth? Go Winder, Varland, SWR, Sands, Headrick, Stashak, Coulombe, Balazovic, Funderburk, Bentley, Cabezas, Gross, Enlow, Legumina, Lawyerson, Sammons, Schuffler, Scherff. Ober or which ever other starter is left out of the rotation.

I think you're confused about the process, you don't have to "cut" any of these guys, if they mess up you can send them back to St. Paul. Even after one outing. ESPECIALLY  after one outing. You really think they'll pull the plug on Brad Hand after a few bad outings? They won't. They won't pull the plug on him after five bad outings. Maybe not even 10. You seriously think Hand will be better than ALL of those guys listed? It never works that way. The guy has lost the ability to miss bats and he's lost the ability to avoid walks. Who wants a smoke and mirrors guy in the pen? Who wants a guy who's making the infielders get all of his outs for him when the game is on the line? With no shift allowed?

People need to stop thinking veterans are better than unknown rookies. If they were, they probably would still have jobs with their current clubs, and they certainly wouldn't still be free agents when Spring Training opens. And you know what, if the rookies aren't cutting it, they can get a reliever 5x better than Hand by dealing a guy like Legumina. Like they did last year when they traded Gipson-Long for Michael Fulmer.

Falvey stated he wants Ober, Winder, Varland, SWR, Sands and Balazovic stretched out and starting. That means they're not options for the bullpen. I mean, they could be but that would mean they're not going to develop as a starter and they need to replace 3 starters this offseason.

Stashak and Legumina are gone.

Headrick (4.81 ERA), Laweryson (1.02 ERA), Funderburk (2.94 ERA), Bentley (3.79 ERA), Cabezas (3.13 ERA), Gross (4.03 ERA), Enlow (4.40 ERA), Sammons (5.76 ERA), Scherrf (5.27 ERA) - none of them have pitched above Double-A and most of them kinda sucked at Double-A. I'm not big on giving scholarships to minor leaguers who haven't proven themselves at AAA. Austin Schulfer (0.39 ERA in AA, 5.23 ERA in AAA) is a good example of why that's a bad idea. 

So you're left with Danny Coulombe. If the Twins like him better than Hand, that's fine (I don't). Oliver Ortega is a guy they grabbed and waived as a AAA stash. They still need to go get one (or more) of the other veteran relievers on the market because their bullpen is 3 pitchers deep off the 26 player roster.

And I think you're actually confused about the process. They have 2 spots open on the 40 man roster once they put Paddack and Canterino on the 60 day injured list. They have a unique opportunity now because there are decent veteran pitchers available and they have an open roster spot. This opportunity goes away before the season begins.

If they add one of those Double-A guys they can option him if he sucks, but then then he's on the 40 man and they can't remove him without allowing the league to grab a young pitcher for free. If they remove Enlow again he can elect free agency. You don't add pitchers with a future to the 40 man roster until they're ready to contribute or you're forced to because they are at risk of being taken in the Rule 5 draft. It's better to cycle through veterans.

[DJL44]

20 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Yes, but why would you sign the veteran to a major league deal when he's so easily passed up for the 40th man on the roster? If he's the first guy you'd cut it means you wouldn't have him on your 26-man roster. In that case signing him to a major league deal is a bad idea since you'd just have to DFA him at the end of spring anyways. That's kind of the point here. Signing a veteran to a major league deal to fill your 40th spot is bad roster management. You sign that guy to a minor league deal with an opt out date so the player can leave in May or June or whatever if he hasn't been called up yet. You don't tie yourself to a major league contract for a guy who isn't one of your 26 best players, and doesn't have options, if you're trying to win a division that year.

It's a good idea if the major league deal is what you need to do to win the bid. A player will prefer a big league deal to a minor league deal with an opt-out. Everyone would rather be in the majors than not. I wouldn't throw big money at a reliever but I would offer the roster spot, which is open and costs literally nothing.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

It's a good idea if the major league deal is what you need to do to win the bid. A player will prefer a big league deal to a minor league deal with an opt-out. Everyone would rather be in the majors than not. I wouldn't throw big money at a reliever but I would offer the roster spot, which is open and costs literally nothing.

If he's not good enough to be on your major league roster who cares if you win the bid? Of course they prefer a big league deal, but doesn't mean they're worth a big league deal. But if you're not going to carry them on your major league roster on opening day giving them that roster spot for spring training is completely useless. And they're smart enough to know that, so it being a major league deal isn't the boost you may think it is in their bid.

Brad Hand and his agent can look at the Twins roster and know he's likely not making the opening day roster as a 3rd lefty out of the pen. Getting a ceremonial 40-man spot for a month (at max) doesn't mean anything to him. All it really does is take his control away when he gets DFA'd and put on waivers. A minor league deal with an opt out at least gets him paid and a some control on his future. Waiting for an injury to a lefty on a team without a good replacement may even be a better option for him if he's so set on getting a major league deal. Signing a major league deal knowing the most likely outcome is a DFA in a month likely isn't all that intriguing.

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

Brad Hand and his agent can look at the Twins roster and know he's likely not making the opening day roster as a 3rd lefty out of the pen. 

No, he'd be the 2nd lefty on Opening Day and Moran would get optioned for 2 weeks until the first reliever gets injured. A month in the big leagues beats the hell out of spending a month in the minors. MLB travel and per diems are a LOT better. A month extra toward vesting his pension is a big deal. Hand is at 9 years and 92 days and full vesting happens at 10 years. If he makes it until June he's fully vested.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

No, he'd be the 2nd lefty on Opening Day and Moran would get optioned for 2 weeks until the first reliever gets injured. A month in the big leagues beats the hell out of spending a month in the minors. MLB travel and per diems are a LOT better. A month extra toward vesting his pension is a big deal. Hand is at 9 years and 92 days and full vesting happens at 10 years. If he makes it until June he's fully vested.

He's not as good as Moran is right now. And maybe that's the core of our disagreement here. Brad Hand isn't good enough to demand a roster spot on a team that's trying to win the division. The Twins need to bring their best roster to Kansas City, not the ones without options left (unless they're the same talent level). You build in Hand's option by signing him to a minor league deal and he's the guy who gets called up when he's the best option to be called up. Putting a guy who may be your 50th best player on the opening day roster simply because you're going to need more pitchers during the year makes no sense to me. And maybe you think Hand is as good as Moran and that's why you're in favor of that kind of move. I don't think Hand is good enough.

[DJL44]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

He's not as good as Moran is right now. And maybe that's the core of our disagreement here. Brad Hand isn't good enough to demand a roster spot on a team that's trying to win the division. The Twins need to bring their best roster to Kansas City, not the ones without options left (unless they're the same talent level). You build in Hand's option by signing him to a minor league deal and he's the guy who gets called up when he's the best option to be called up. Putting a guy who may be your 50th best player on the opening day roster simply because you're going to need more pitchers during the year makes no sense to me. And maybe you think Hand is as good as Moran and that's why you're in favor of that kind of move. I don't think Hand is good enough.

They need to win in May, not just April. They need more depth. The difference between Hand and Moran is small but the difference between either and Sammons is huge.

If you don't think Hand is good enough that's fine. I think he'd be in their top 10 relief pitchers. There's definitely SOMEONE available right now (Hand, Smith, Britton, Harris, Bradley) who is good enough to sign and they won't be around for much longer.

[saviking]

He could come in Handy ..

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

They need to win in May, not just April. They need more depth. The difference between Hand and Moran is small but the difference between either and Sammons is huge.

If you don't think Hand is good enough that's fine. I think he'd be in their top 10 relief pitchers. There's definitely SOMEONE available right now (Hand, Smith, Britton, Harris, Bradley) who is good enough to sign and they won't be around for much longer.

I think their depth is Balazovich, Coulombe, Dobnak, Henriquez, Ober, Paddack (at mid-season), Sanchez, Sands, Varland, Winder, and SWR. I know they're stretching most of them out as starters, but that doesn't mean they'd skip over them and go down to the next group as their first call ups. Or that they'll all succeed as starters and not be shifted to the pen pretty early. They went to those types of guys in the pen last year so I'm not sure why we think they wouldn't do it this year. To me he's not better than any of those guys. He's in the De Leon, Enlow, Headrick, Lawyerson, Murphy, Ortega, Schulfer, Stewart group. Which, by my count, puts him somewhere in the 20s on the list of best pitcher options. They'll need that many throughout the year for sure. But I'm not forcing my 25th (or whatever he is) best pitcher onto my opening day roster just because I have an open 40-man spot. I'd rather take a shot at younger waiver claims with much more upside.

I'd sign any of those guys you listed. To minor league deals. I'm not crossing my fingers and hoping washed up vets who aren't in my top 20 options can smoke and mirrors their way through the first month or 2 without blowing a handful of games for me, or only being willing to use them in mop up duty that really limits the usefulness of a roster spot.

If Gray, Lopez, Ryan, Mahle, Maeda, Duran, Jax, Lopez, Alcala, Moran, Ober, Pagan, Thielbar, Balazovich, Headrick, Henriquez, Megill, Paddack, Sands, Varland, Winder, SWR, Coulombe, Dobnak, and Sanchez aren't enough to cover the vast majority of important innings for the Twins they're doomed and Brad Hand isn't going to save them. I listed 25 guys there. I don't care so much about starter vs reliever in terms of pitching depth in season. Most of the guys used beyond your top 15-20 are up for very short stints, and get very little work, so a AAA starter can be called up for a week in the pen if he's the best arm available. Hand wouldn't be in my top 20.

The top 20 pitchers for the Twins last year covered 88% of the Twins innings. And that's with losing 2 starters in their first 5 starts with the team (Paddack and Mahle). So the other 18 guys they used (2 were position players) covered just 12% of the innings. 165 total innings amongst 18 guys. That's less than 10 innings a guy. I'm not forcing someone I don't see as one of their top 20 pitchers onto the opening day roster because I may need 10 innings out of someone of his talent level.

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Falvey stated he wants Ober, Winder, Varland, SWR, Sands and Balazovic stretched out and starting. That means they're not options for the bullpen. I mean, they could be but that would mean they're not going to develop as a starter and they need to replace 3 starters this offseason.

Stashak and Legumina are gone.

Headrick (4.81 ERA), Laweryson (1.02 ERA), Funderburk (2.94 ERA), Bentley (3.79 ERA), Cabezas (3.13 ERA), Gross (4.03 ERA), Enlow (4.40 ERA), Sammons (5.76 ERA), Scherrf (5.27 ERA) - none of them have pitched above Double-A and most of them kinda sucked at Double-A. I'm not big on giving scholarships to minor leaguers who haven't proven themselves at AAA. Austin Schulfer (0.39 ERA in AA, 5.23 ERA in AAA) is a good example of why that's a bad idea. 

So you're left with Danny Coulombe. If the Twins like him better than Hand, that's fine (I don't). Oliver Ortega is a guy they grabbed and waived as a AAA stash. They still need to go get one (or more) of the other veteran relievers on the market because their bullpen is 3 pitchers deep off the 26 player roster.

And I think you're actually confused about the process. They have 2 spots open on the 40 man roster once they put Paddack and Canterino on the 60 day injured list. They have a unique opportunity now because there are decent veteran pitchers available and they have an open roster spot. This opportunity goes away before the season begins.

If they add one of those Double-A guys they can option him if he sucks, but then then he's on the 40 man and they can't remove him without allowing the league to grab a young pitcher for free. If they remove Enlow again he can elect free agency. You don't add pitchers with a future to the 40 man roster until they're ready to contribute or you're forced to because they are at risk of being taken in the Rule 5 draft. It's better to cycle through veterans.

You think the front office is confused about the process? Ridiculous.

[MMMordabito]

It appears to be 60-Day IL day.  I think we'll find out soon whether there is any traction on this Hand deal.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/02/dodgers-buehler-treinen-feyereisen-60-day-injured-list.html

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/02/red-sox-sign-yu-chang-major-league-contract.html

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

You think the front office is confused about the process? Ridiculous.

nicksaviking works in the front office?

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

If Gray, Lopez, Ryan, Mahle, Maeda, Duran, Jax, Lopez, Alcala, Moran, Ober, Pagan, Thielbar, Balazovich, Headrick, Henriquez, Megill, Paddack, Sands, Varland, Winder, SWR, Coulombe, Dobnak, and Sanchez aren't enough to cover the vast majority of important innings for the Twins they're doomed

I think they are doomed if they need to count on Dobnak, Balazovic, Sanchez, Henriquez, Sands or Headrick this season. That's 6 guys I don't want to see pitching for the Twins this season if they pitch anything like they did last season (which should be the default expectation). I'm not a big fan of Pagan, Megill or Coulombe either. I like the available free agents (including Hand) over that field.

Their starting pitching depth is improved but the bullpen depth is terrible unless they eat their seed corn and convert the AAA starters into relievers. They moved Duran to the bullpen last year and now he's "too valuable" to move back to the rotation.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I think they are doomed if they need to count on Dobnak, Balazovic, Sanchez, Henriquez, Sands or Headrick this season. That's 6 guys I don't want to see pitching for the Twins this season if they pitch anything like they did last season (which should be the default expectation). I'm not a big fan of Pagan, Megill or Coulombe either. I like the available free agents (including Hand) over that field.

Their starting pitching depth is improved but the bullpen depth is terrible unless they eat their seed corn and convert the AAA starters into relievers. They moved Duran to the bullpen last year and now he's "too valuable" to move back to the rotation.

We clearly see Hand differently, which is totally fine. I disagree that expecting guys to perform the same as the season before should be the default expectation. It's how you end up with Colome as your closer despite there being numerous signs he couldn't sustain that performance. There's far more to projecting this season's reasonable outcomes than that. But I'd take Henriquez with a 2.31 ERA, and .94 WHIP, out of the Twins pen if all we're doing is penciling in their stats from last year for this year. I'm not a huge fan of those 3 either, but I don't like any of the free agents better than them.

Have the Twins said Duran is "too valuable" to move back to the rotation? It's possible I missed that, but I thought they moved him to the pen because they didn't think his arm could hold up to being a starter, and the reason they wouldn't put him back in the rotation is still just that they don't think his arm would hold up. Certainly possible I missed them saying it's him being "too valuable" in the pen, though. Sands is my best candidate for being this year's Jax. He looks like Duffey to me. Has the breaking balls to unleash effectively for an inning at a time, but not be a starter. I don't expect all of the young potential starters to stick as starters through this season even. And most of them are not particularly young. So transitioning a couple to the pen if they can perform much better there is a completely acceptable, and desirable, outcome to me. Build the pen for the next 5 years on pre-arb and arb eligible, homegrown failed starters? Yes, please. Save a whole lot of money to put towards a star that way.

And that's even with the idea of not turning them into fulltime relievers in April or May. Reliever injuries, and replacements, are far different than starters. You can call Varland up for a week in the pen to cover for reliever X going down, and then call Winder up for the next week. That doesn't make Varland and Winder fulltime relievers now. They just go back to St Paul and rejoin the rotation. Like they did with Smeltzer last year. And Winder. And Sands. And Rodriguez. And Henriquez. And Sanchez. You don't have to "eat your seed corn" to use your AAA starters as injury fill-ins for relievers on the MLB team. That's why I don't care where Hand ranks in their reliever list, but I do care about where he ranks in their pitcher list.

[DJL44]

14 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

 I'd take Henriquez with a 2.31 ERA, and .94 WHIP, out of the Twins pen if all we're doing is penciling in their stats from last year for this year.

The 5.66 ERA in AAA is more valuable when predicting this season. You can't count on everyone to be better than last year. As many will be worse as are better.

I will go on record as saying that I think Winder and Sands should be converted to relief immediately. I'd still start them in AAA if possible.

[Mike Sixel]

47 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

nicksaviking works in the front office?

clearly I misread that! I thought you said "they" not "you". My bad!

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, saviking said:

He could come in Handy ..

[Azviking101]

Why can't they just make one move to fortify the bullpen? Last year, Twins gave Bundy 5 million and I think Archer got close to 7 after incentives and buyout. Neither did anything for the team last year, but two legit setup men got 5.5 and 7.5 (Chafin and Moore) and the Twins scoffed at that. 

Brad Hand appears to be close to done in this league and would likely be a waste of money.

Someone needs to have a quality over quantity conversation with the Twins brass when it comes to pitching FA deals, 

[chpettit19]

19 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The 5.66 ERA in AAA is more valuable when predicting this season. You can't count on everyone to be better than last year. As many will be worse as are better.

I will go on record as saying that I think Winder and Sands should be converted to relief immediately. I'd still start them in AAA if possible.

I think Henriquez is a reliever, and the Twins staff was much better at getting him to sequence his pitches better out of the pen. Not predicting a Duran type result in the pen, but I think he's somewhere between the 5.66 in AAA and the 2.31 in MLB. But he's, hopefully, on his way up, while Hand is very clearly on his way down. I'm not counting on everyone being better than last year. Many will be worse. And I think Hand is one. I don't want that kind of forced depth right now. I want guys with significantly higher ceilings than "can maybe hold on for another 30 innings through smoke and mirrors while missing basically no bats, walking a bunch, and not striking many out."

I'd move Sands to the pen immediately as well, and also start him in AAA. I think Winder can be really good so I hesitate on the move to the pen just yet, but if I'm betting my house on it I'd guess that's where he ends up. I'd start them both in AAA, though. But I'd take both their upside, and chances of 2023 pen success, over Hand holding on.