Derek Falvey Isn't Wrong About the Bullpen

[Matt Braun]

He may be right; I may be crazy.

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Derek Falvey rustled some feathers the other day when, in an article written by Phil Miller of the Star Tribune, the exec said, "[i]f we were to do anything at this point, it would likely be to add depth in the middle [innings]. We'll keep an open mind, but [relief pitching is] not a priority." It’s a shockingly straightforward answer not saturated with Falvey’s typical lawyer-ish flourishes.

Falvey and Miller covered the gambit in reliever talk in that article; I recommend people read the entire piece before outraging (that will never happen).

Initially, it’s tough to accept Falvey’s evaluation. I watched the same 2022 Twins team he did, and that squad specialized in blowing games in the late innings. They often failed to hold leads in games that really should have won. Cleveland proved to be a special problem, as Minnesota handed out late wins like Costco free samples as Tyler Thornburg and his ilk tried their darndest to not be a part of the problem. It didn't work, and they finished with the seventh-most meltdowns, a quick-and-dirty Fangraphs stat that uses win probability to determine poor reliever performance. But you don’t need to hear it from a number: that bullpen stunk.

Perhaps we’re looking at the issue too broadly, though. Yes, the relief corps was terrible in the first half of the season—Fangraphs pegged them as the 2nd worst in MLB—but they didn’t remain static. Michael Fulmer and Jorge López joined the squad. Caleb Thielber emerged as a tremendous, reliable arm. People with eyes determined that Emilio Pagán should probably not pitch late in games. Evolution took its course.

Quietly, so silent that no one cared to notice, the Twins bullpen improved drastically in the second half. Sure, they couldn’t fall further than before, but their bullpen now ranked 4th in MLB in FIP, only sitting behind the blue-blood organizations who consistently dominate the pitching charts. Part of that may be the inherent randomness in reliever performance, but tangible changes appeared to afflict the Twins for the better.

Take it from Falvey: "I feel like we saw a lot of progress as last season went on, and within a group that still can make even more progress as they gain experience."

Bullpens aren’t made of numbers. People pitch those innings, at least for now. Minnesota’s group includes four arms dancing around one year of MLB service time with another, Jorge Alcalá, who is about as green as the others. Is it unreasonable to believe that Jovani Moran succeeds in an expanded role, Griffin Jax finds another gear, or Trevor Megill fully realizes his strikeout potential? Jhoan Duran will continue melting faces in the near future. The teams main worry will be the complimenting pieces always at risk for the bullpen randomness bug; there's nothing that signing Corey Knebel would do to alleviate that. 

The issue with the Twins bullpen is perhaps one of perception: because they seemingly blew an incalculable number of games in 2022, they appear incompetent, doomed to blow games again. But that may not be fair. As this author noted in July, relievers are an odd group, one whose jobs rely on the starting pitcher's effectiveness; it could be an all-hand-on-deck night, or Rocco Baldelli may only need the services of two arms the do the job. Given Minnesota’s dreadfully short starting pitching, the bullpen felt an extreme strain. Much of those games were technically the fault of the relief corps, but part of the battle is placing those arms in a position to succeed; Minnesota lost that fight consistently in 2022. 

And they likely won’t have to carry that weight in 2023. With plenty of wood knocking, the 2023 Twins rotation appears a more trustworthy bunch than their previous counterparts. Swapping Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer for Kenta Maeda and Pablo López gives them a deep rotation. No arm sticks out as truly dominant, but their reliability should feed into the bullpen, removing pressure and allowing its hierarchy to remain intact. The days of Jharel Cotton saving games are over. 

It is risky. Fewer outcomes in baseball are less aesthetically pleasing than a late blown lead; the win should have been in hand, after all. If López doesn’t regain his Orioles form, Alcalá fails to show the improvement he flashed in 2021, or if any of the breakout 2022 arms regress, it could be a tough summer to bear.

 

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[Fire Dan Gladden]

Defending Falvey or the bullpen?

[Looks up at the sky...]

...

I am not wearing a helmet.

[walks indoors]

[dberthia]

Any bullpen that contains Emilio Pagan immediately becomes a priority IMHO.

[Vanimal46]

Things that fueled the 2nd half surge:

- Getting rid of Joe Smith who has awful (-0.9 fWAR) and reducing Jharel Cotton to emergency call up (-0.5 fWAR)

- Caleb Thielbar and Jhoan Duran pitching like peak Mariano Rivera. 

- Pagan pitching the lowest leverage innings as humanly possible.

Baldelli can only work with the arms provided to him by the FO. My concern about being 2-3 good arms short in the bullpen is becoming an annual tradition. 

[Craig Arko]

1 hour ago, Matt Braun said:

He may be right; I may be crazy.

author-tracker.gifauthor-tracker.gif

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY

 

But it just might be a lunatic we’re looking for.

[Verified Member]

To Matt's opening position of, "He may be right; I may be crazy."

I reply:

You just may be a lunatic I'm looking for
Turn out the light
Don't try to save me
You may be wrong for all I know
But you may be right

Apologies to Billy Joel.

[nicksaviking]

Relievers are the kickers of MLB. When they step on the field they have one, short term duty. While the other players are evaluated based on work over multiple innings and could grade out from anywhere between an A and an F, it's pretty much always a pass/fail situation for a reliever. And these pitchers are in this position because for one reason or another, they aren't good enough to be starters. It's a finger crossing scenario by default.

Bottom line, I feel just as comfortable with a reliever holding a lead as I feel comfortable with a kicker aiming for a game winning field goal. Which is not at all. And it doesn't matter who the kicker or relief pitcher are, the voice in my head always says they're going to choke.

[PatPfund]

I think the rotation actually makes the bullpen stronger in two ways. One you covered (more starter innings means fewer 'pen innings meaning fresher arms). The other is that really good arms that were filling starting last year are potential bullpen material. Winder and Ober are actually good, and if they aren't starting, they probably can be better than Griffen Jax was last year (and that was pretty great when he wasn't over-used).

[LastOnePicked]

"Fewer outcomes in baseball are less aesthetically pleasing than a late blown lead." Oh, it's not just aesthetics - it carries a mental toll, too. The first save/hold that Pagan blows this year could take the wind out of this team's sails pretty quickly.

[Jocko87]

Brad Hand rumor, DFA Pagan. Off-season done?

[Danchat]

35 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Brad Hand rumor, DFA Pagan. Off-season done?

That would be a perfect way to end the offseason!

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Jocko87 said:

Brad Hand rumor, DFA Pagan. Off-season done?

Trying to say this without vomiting....I think I'd rather have Pagan? Hand doesn't strike anyone out anymore and walks anything that can resist chasing his slider. Which now seems to be nearly every batter he faces.

But at least Pagan is certainly on thin ice, where as Hand is more likely to get a long leash as a local hero free agent. I'd rather have neither, but prefer the guy who's more likely to be released by June?

Pardon me while I look for the mop.

[Lasorda_This_Out]

Derek Falvey is President of Baseball Operations for a MLB team.

We're not. 

It stands to reason that Mr. Falvey knows more how to build a succesful MLB bullpen than any of us on TD?

Let's see how things play out in the first half...

Trade deadline can always be interesting...

Go Twins!!

 

[joemama]

4 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

"Fewer outcomes in baseball are less aesthetically pleasing than a late blown lead." Oh, it's not just aesthetics - it carries a mental toll, too. The first save/hold that Pagan blows this year could take the wind out of this team's sails pretty quickly.

Totally agree on the mental toll it takes out of the team. That series (or was it two?) in late June against Cleveland was really when the season turned. Before that, we had confidence we could weather some bad fortune. After that, we felt like most of the bullpen was operating with smoke & mirrors. There were stretches when we still had hope, but the confidence was gone.

[MGX]

Good article

My feeling is the bullpen is in good shape & if an issue arises during the season it can be addressed by the deadline.

As the author noted the consistent short starts (at least partially falls on Baldelli, some was caused by who was in the rotation) put added strain on the bullpen. I agree that should be better in '23.

I have a bigger concern with the offense - if this great defensive OF fails to produce at the plate that could put a strain on the staff as a whole. On the bright side we do have a lot of young guys who look like they could take a step forward if they get the opportunity. If Correa & Buxton give us what we expect & we get a positive step from Miranda, Gordon, Larnach & Kiriloff & maybe a small bounce back from Kepler, this could be a fun year.

   

[Karbo]

12 hours ago, PatPfund said:

I think the rotation actually makes the bullpen stronger in two ways. One you covered (more starter innings means fewer 'pen innings meaning fresher arms). The other is that really good arms that were filling starting last year are potential bullpen material. Winder and Ober are actually good, and if they aren't starting, they probably can be better than Griffen Jax was last year (and that was pretty great when he wasn't over-used).

I agree that the starters should be able to go longer this year. Now the question becomes if Rocco has enough confidence to let them pitch longer, or if he still thinks a fresh relief pitcher has a better chance. Last season he was caught between a rock and a hard place that way, though IMO he was persuaded to heavily by stat sheets and odds etc. He should have the horses this year, will he let them run?

[rv78]

9 hours ago, Lasorda_This_Out said:

Derek Falvey is President of Baseball Operations for a MLB team.

We're not. 

It stands to reason that Mr. Falvey knows more how to build a succesful MLB bullpen than any of us on TD?

Let's see how things play out in the first half...

Trade deadline can always be interesting...

Go Twins!!

 

Is this the same Derek Falvey that built the bullpen in 2022?  You are only as successful as what your record indicates and how far you go in the playoffs. Isn't this year 7 of his regime with really nothing to show for it? It stands to reason that so far, it doesn't look like he knows a lot about what he is doing.

[saviking]

I think you nailed it. Our bullpen is relying on Lopez and Alcala. If they are both at top form we'll be okay.

[Minny505]

16 hours ago, PatPfund said:

Winder and Ober are actually good, and if they aren't starting, they probably can be better than Griffen Jax was last year (and that was pretty great when he wasn't over-used).

Being that Ober is the 6th SP right now, I'd prefer they keep him stretched out as he'll likely be needed in the Twins's rotation before the calendar flips to May...possibly before it flips to April. 

But I completely agree on Winder. I would peg him as no higher than 8th on the SP depth chart. Due to the youth behind him, he could easily end the season 10th or so. It's time to transition him to the BP and see what he can do in short bursts.

[old nurse]

19 hours ago, Craig Arko said:

But it just might be a lunatic we’re looking for.

I think Al Hrabowki retired a few years ago

[old nurse]

Trying to assess a bullpen is a tricky thing. You really can’t look at win/losses/blown saves. The bullpens of bad teams do not get that chance as often. The game is over before they get a chance. Most other numbers will get skewed by a bad outing or two. It makes it hard to fully assess. Does this current bullpen have potential? Yup. Then again, so didn’t Duffey up until last year. 

[adorduan]

Well, if the FO sticks with their "no 3rd time through the order" philosophy, the bullpen with be rode hard and put up wet again this year. I don't see how that doesn't end badly.

[Reptevia]

10 hours ago, MGX said:

If Correa & Buxton give us what we expect & we get a positive step from Miranda, Gordon, Larnach & Kiriloff & maybe a small bounce back from Kepler, this could be a fun year.

If seven things fall into place, it could be a good year!  Unfortunately, that list is far from comprehensive. It’s probably more like 12 things…That said, Go Twins!  I’ll be listening…