The Twins Forgotten Stud Pitcher

[Cody Pirkl]

Tyler Mahle has become a bit of an afterthought when considering the team’s success in 2023. Given his season-ending injury, this may be fair. It’s easy to forget, however, that if Tyler Mahle is healthy, he could make a huge impact.

Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

 

The Twins would probably like a redo on the Tyler Mahle trade at this point given how 2022 ended up. They paid a premium for pitching help at the deadline, shipping out three solid prospects in Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Steve Hajjar to try to hold onto first place in the AL Central. The Twins would get just 16 1/3 innings from Mahle who immediately wound up on the IL with shoulder issues. It’s impossible to argue that his stock has dropped precipitously, likely to the point where had Mahle remained in Cincinnati, an offseason trade likely wouldn’t even be on the table for teams across the league.

Despite Mahle’s remaining questions on the shoulder, he still has an entire season to make good on the Twins investment. Though not what they were focused on when they acquired the right-hander last summer, 2023 could easily turn a 180 on the perception of that trade.

People seem to forget that Tyler Mahle was blossoming into a very good pitcher prior to injury. Some might argue that he had already emerged as a top of the rotation option. After a few years of struggles, Mahle quietly broke out in the shortened 2020 season. In just under 50 innings pitched, he posted a near 30% K rate and a 3.59 ERA which was supported by his peripherals. His 1.1 Fangraphs WAR projected out to a 3+ win pitcher. The Twins leader by this measure in 2023 was Sonny Gray with 2.4 WAR.

Mahle carried his success over to 2021, setting a career high in innings with 180 and posting a 3.75 ERA and nearing the 4 WAR mark. In 2022 Mahle got off to a rough start with an ERA over 6.00 in the first month, but was otherwise on track to finish as the same level of pitcher down the stretch.

In regard to his skill set when on the mound, the Twins had good reason to pay up for him, as he’s rock solid as is and may have some untouched ceiling from his days in Cincinnati. Despite pitching in one of baseball's premier offensive stadiums, he’s been a premium starting pitcher. The big blemish in his profile has always been the longball, which should surprise no one as Cincinnati’s park has ranked top 3 in homers in each of the last three seasons. By Statcast measures, the 18 expected homers allowed by Mahle in Cincinnati’s ballpark in 2023 drops all the way down to 11 at Target Field. Not only can we expect a healthy Tyler Mahle to post a mid to high 3s ERA when he’s on the mound, it’s incredibly easy to dream of his game finding another level just by a few more fly balls staying in the park.

The Twins current construction of their roster also points to further improvement in Tyler Mahle’s game. As is the case with most pitchers who allow a healthy amount of homers, a majority of balls in play off of him are hit in the air. In 2022 Mahle had a 46.8% fly ball rate. The Twins would love to see a repeat given the depth of defensive outfield options on the roster including Buxton, Gallo, Kepler, Michael A. Taylor etc. Not only should Target Field keep a few more homers in the ballpark, but it’s easy to see a few more singles and extra base hits finding the glove with how the Twins have put together their outfield.

It’s been interesting to see references to a solid Twins rotation with limited mention of Tyler Mahle. His end to 2022 was disappointing and left a lot of question marks, but nothing was acutely wrong with his then ailing shoulder. On one hand this could be bad news as there’s nothing specific to fix, but on the other he’s had an offseason to correct the issue and there would likely be more reason to worry had the fix been something like shoulder surgery.

Mahle is certainly a risk to have a recurring injury, but why does his shoulder get so much more attention than Sonny Gray’s rash of ailments that kept him from reaching even 120 innings? Recently acquired Pablo López has an even more colorful history of shoulder injuries, and while he reached 180 innings in 2022, he noticeably was not the same pitcher in the second half as he wore down.

At the very least, Mahle is on the same level skill wise as these pitchers, and it can be argued that he’s shown more consistency and has a better argument to show further improvement. The first step, as is the case with so many players on the Twins roster, is health for Tyler Mahle. If he provides us with a favorable answer, he’s going to be one of the biggest contributors to a pitching staff that desperately needs a rebound season. Do you agree?

 

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[TiberTwins]

This makes sense that if healthy he will be solid. Has anyone heard what he's been doing or any programs he's been given by the Twins health staff to help this issue?

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

We're in kind of a no-win situation with him.  If he comes out of the gate healthy and has a good first half, then his agent will probably want him to finish out the year and go into FA for a big contract.

If he still has shoulder injuries this year and is not effective, then we probably will not give a QO and it would not make sense for the Twins to sign him long-term and we will have gotten little value for the prospects we sent for him.

The only path if he excels is to offer him a fair in-season contract.  If he and his agent decline, the we must shop him at the deadline to recoup some of our prospect capital.

[Parfigliano]

More so then most the Twins season sure seems to hang on more then a couple pitchers bouncing back from shoulder-arm issues.

[Craig Arko]

Hope so.

[eric grundmeier]

I'd argue that Mahle has the highest 2023 ceiling of the Twins starting rotation.  But he also may have the lowest floor - given the injury risk.

 

[gil4]

49 minutes ago, eric grundmeier said:

I'd argue that Mahle has the highest 2023 ceiling of the Twins starting rotation.  But he also may have the lowest floor - given the injury risk.

 

All pitchers have that same floor, and all of them are one awkward pitch away from reaching it.  Some guys have been healthy for a long time, but that usually means they are that much closer to the big one that shuts them down for a year.  

I will grant that having a shoulder injury without a specific diagnosis that was just treated with rest has a pretty high chance of recurring.

[CRF]

Has anyone seen, or heard, anything about his shoulder? I don't recall seeing anything. For that matter, all I can remember reading, is that he was dealing with "inflammation". That's what the story was last season. If he's healthy, he could be a real big boost to the rotation. 

[jishfish]

3 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

The only path if he excels is to offer him a fair in-season contract.  If he and his agent decline, the we must shop him at the deadline to recoup some of our prospect capital.

I think 'we must' is maybe a little strong here. If he's pitching well and the Twins are anywhere near contention, they would be off their rocker to shop him. I think you see how the first few months go, and if he's pitching well you try to extend him mid-season. If not, offer him the QO at the end of the year or try to sign him as a FA.

Steer and CES were both nice players and quality prospects, but neither really had a locked in future here since they're both questionable on the defensive spectrum. Personally I like the prospect we got back in Arraez trade more than either of those two, but I'm sure others would probably disagree.

[SkyBlueWaters]

"Huge impact"? I hope you're right. We have a deeper rotation now, but we lack an ace. Aside from Maeda's pitching in '20, pre-TJ, and Berrios in '21, the front of our rotation hasn't been stellar recently, meaning two to three guys pitching well, keeping the team in games through at least 5-6 innings, limiting wear on the bullpen so relievers can be used where most effective. 

Mahle turns 29 in September. He's pitched all or part of six seasons, so it seems to me the track record is pretty well established. A career ERA of 4.35, career WHIP of 1.315.  In seasons where he has lasted 50 or more IP, his best is managing an ERA of 3.75 ('21), and a solid WHIP of 1,218 ('22). 

But hey, maybe he's on the verge of putting it all together. Maybe Twins coaching and the trainer will maximize his talent. "Stud"? I'm not seeing it yet. But I'm ready to be convinced. I'd love to see a Twin among the league leaders in ERA, K's, WHIP, K/BB, ERA+, or even a staid old stat like "wins."

[tony&rodney]

49 minutes ago, jishfish said:

Steer and CES were both nice players and quality prospects, but neither really had a locked in future here since they're both questionable on the defensive spectrum. Personally I like the prospect we got back in Arraez trade more than either of those two,

I agree, Steer and CES are nice players but where do they fit in this pile: Kirilloff, Julien, Polanco, Martin, Salas, Miranda, Lewis, Lee, Correa, Gordon? We know that Correa and Polanco are fixtures or not younger players at least. So Steer and CES, both talented, were reasonable guys to trade for a good pitcher. I'm wondering how the Twins package two position guys and two pitchers to pry Burnes away from Milwaukee. There is a fine balance between using your system to make the main squad better and stripping down the farm. Mahle was a fair addition and could be really good this year. I do not see him as a solid choice to be extended because he doesn't project as good gamble for 5/$100M and if he returns to full health and effectiveness he is not looking for 3/$40M. I'm hoping for 180 innings of 3.25 ERA pitching this summer from Mahle.

[Cris E]

Mahle is better than his raw career numbers because his home park was CIN, a complete launching pad. He was a different guy there versus the road: "In the past three seasons, when Mahle started entering his peak at age-25, he’s pitched 156.2 innings on the road. He owns a 2.93 ERA over that time, 12th among 84 qualifying pitchers."   https://zonecoverage.com/2022/mn-twins-news/twins-are-betting-on-a-literal-change-of-scenery-to-unlock-mahle/

There's more in that article, especially digging into his HR rate dropping by half when not pitching at Great America. Former Red Sonny Grey makes an appearance too. I am optimistic about Mahle in 2023.

[rv78]

The Twins FO is banking on a lot of "IF's". Good health has to be the biggest "IF" of all, from Buxton, Larnach, Kirilloff, Polanco, and even Correa to Mahle, Maeda, Ober, Gray, Lopez, and half a dozen others that could popup out of the blue ay any time. Not that other clubs couldn't have that happen as well but the FO hasn't done a very good job of staying away from the injured easily type of players. Then there's the "IF" of can this team score runs? Or if the bullpen can hold a lead until they get to Duran? If Rocco will manage a game by sight, feel and logic instead of by a spreadsheet? A lot of things can go right for this team, but it won't take a lot of things to go wrong to wreck it.

[mikelink45]

I don't understand - I see his name in just about every essay about this year.  How is he forgotten?

[Original_JB]

It is what it is, but part of me is utterly exhausted with the constant train of "If/Could"  starting pitchers on this team, going back to I'd say, the Phil Hughes era. The number of articles written about the rotation where almost every single starter's writeup included an If/Could disclaimer...

[Karbo]

16 hours ago, SkyBlueWaters said:

"Huge impact"? I hope you're right. We have a deeper rotation now, but we lack an ace. Aside from Maeda's pitching in '20, pre-TJ, and Berrios in '21, the front of our rotation hasn't been stellar recently, meaning two to three guys pitching well, keeping the team in games through at least 5-6 innings, limiting wear on the bullpen so relievers can be used where most effective. 

Mahle turns 29 in September. He's pitched all or part of six seasons, so it seems to me the track record is pretty well established. A career ERA of 4.35, career WHIP of 1.315.  In seasons where he has lasted 50 or more IP, his best is managing an ERA of 3.75 ('21), and a solid WHIP of 1,218 ('22). 

But hey, maybe he's on the verge of putting it all together. Maybe Twins coaching and the trainer will maximize his talent. "Stud"? I'm not seeing it yet. But I'm ready to be convinced. I'd love to see a Twin among the league leaders in ERA, K's, WHIP, K/BB, ERA+, or even a staid old stat like "wins."

IMO his stats will improve at Target field just due to the ballpark, if he stays healthy of course.

[TwinsDr2021]

12 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I don't understand - I see his name in just about every essay about this year.  How is he forgotten?

I would add, Stud pitcher? What has Mahle ever done to be considered a stud pitcher? He has been decent to good (in 2021 he started 33 games and pitched 180 innings, that isn't stud that is durable), and I hope he is amazing this year, but lets stop with the exaggerating of things, please.

[h2oface]

Mahle has never been a stud. Especially when he broke Buxton's wrist with his horrible control.

Now he chose to do nothing to rehab except rest. Good luck to us all with Mahle.

[DocBauer]

A healthy Mahle, out of Cincinnati, has a good chance to be our best starter this season. And if that happens, I'd expect a quality extension offer.

[jkcarew]

Good reminders here that the career results are probably better than they first appear due to the home park.

I remain skeptical for no reason other than the big question on the health of the arm/shoulder.