The Twins Are Making High-Stakes Bets on Their 2023 Bullpen

[Nick Nelson]

Relief pitchers have a quantitatively small job – pitch one or two innings a couple times per week – but they have an outsized impact on a team's fortunes, as we've seen.

Is the front office playing with fire in its passive approach to the bullpen this offseason?

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

 

The impact of the bullpen on a team's fate can often be overstated by fans, which is understandable. Not to get into specifics, but ... a certain reliever melting down several times in close games against a division rival lingers in memory more starkly than, say, the offense that couldn't build a sufficient lead, or the starter who couldn't go deep enough to prevent that scenario. 

Many fans will tell you the bullpen was the primary downfall of the 2022 Twins. Is that true? Not really. Their bullpen ranked 20th among MLB teams in fWAR, 16th in ERA, 14th in FIP, compared to a rotation that ranked 21st, 20th, and 18th respectively. The offense, which was supposed to be the engine driving a competitive team, ranked 17th in the majors in runs scored.

Notably, the Twins bullpen ranked 29th in fWAR in the first half last year, but improved to FOURTH in the second half, once they'd parted ways with the likes of Tyler Duffey and Joe Smith. They weren't just improved in the latter portion of the campaign, after ironing out an uninspiring opening group – they were elite. 

All of which is to say they're not working from as lousy of an existing base as many seem to perceive or assume. The front office's decision to bypass any significant offseason RP additions – which now seems all but affirmed, with Michael Fulmer and Andrew Chafin both coming off the market in the past few days – is justifiable on merit.

That said, failing to properly build a deep and resilient bullpen can be a costly misstep that fans won't be eager to forgive. Even if it's sometimes exaggerated, there's no question that the bullpen plays a vital role in any team's success, and is often a key differentiator between the good and the great. 

Is this group up to snuff?

The team is placing it's chips on a series of outcomes shaking out mostly the right way, in order to fulfill the vision of a bullpen suited to a World Series contender:

The Twins are betting on Jhoan Durán holding up.

He's one of the best relievers in baseball, so Durán would serve as a linchpin in almost any bullpen makeup. But the Twins are set to once again lean hard on him for the late innings, because there is so much uncertainty surrounding him (as we'll discuss).

The big right-hander was remarkably healthy and durable last year, but he was limited to 16 total innings in 2021 by an elbow strain. He throws about as hard as any pitcher in history, so the injury concerns are self-evident and unignorable. 

The Twins can't do much about that other than manage and protect his arm to their best ability, but if they wanted some peace of mind, they might've shelled out or traded for a big-name reliever to serve as co-ace of the bullpen. The Rafael Montero to their Ryan Pressly, if you will.

Alas, it's possible – maybe even probable – that the front office feels it already accomplished this at the deadline last year: 

The Twins are betting on Jorge López getting back on track.

If López and Durán are both pitching at a level approximating their work in the first half last year, they provide Minnesota with one of the most dominant 1-2 punches at the back end of any bullpen. This no doubt played a major role in the front office's strategy during a 2022 deadline that seemed as much oriented toward strengthening the '23 club as boosting their chances for the stretch run.

The plan can still work, and the Twins are counting on it. López's results dropped off big-time after the trade last year, but it was only 23 innings and the stuff was still there. If his drop-off didn't coincide directly with switching teams, it probably would've been less noticeable, and we'd have been more inclined to judge his overall body of work – 71 IP, 2.54 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 4 HR allowed – as a tremendously encouraging first go as a full-time reliever.

Merely replicating that overall level of performance for the full season would make López a worthy setup man or closer. But if getting comfortable while making adjustments brings him back closer to the level of his All-Star first half, the Twins have two powerhouses lurking at the back of the bullpen. They'll be the envy of almost every team in the league.

The Twins are betting on Emilio Pagán proving doubters wrong.

The doubters are many, and they have ample evidence to support their stance. Pagán authored from the mound some of this team's lowest moments in 2022. His propensity for hanging meatballs that got launched 450 feet at dire moments was legendary ... and it's a rep that's now been following him around for a while.

And yet. The Twins believe in the quality of his stuff and they are not alone. Perhaps they feel it started to shine through in the second half and down the stretch, with help from a new breaking ball swapped in for the cutter. After posting a 5.23 ERA in the first half, Pagán lowered that figure to 3.56 in the second half – including 2.16 ERA in his final 16 ⅔ innings, during which he held opponents to a .170/.279/.288 with only one home run allowed.

The overpowering arsenal is undeniable, and in the latter stage of the season – under tutelage from a rearranged coaching staff featuring Pete Maki and Colby Suggs – Pagán finally started to unlock it. Or so the Twins are betting.

The Twins are betting on unproven middle relief options coming through.

Griffin Jax looked very good last year in his transition to relief, but posted a 6.37 ERA the prior season as a rookie. Caleb Thielbar was phenomenal following a rocky start, but he's 36 and was out of pro baseball a few years ago. Jorge Alcalá undoubtedly has the stuff to dominate righties, but missed nearly all of last season with an elbow injury.

Add in the likes of Trevor Megill and Jovani Moran, and you've got a great deal of high-end potential within the middle tier of his bullpen mix – including some very viable setup candidates – but also substantial question marks relating to age, injury, track record, or otherwise. 

The argument for adding another veteran reliever is that you can mitigate some of this uncertainty with more of a proven commodity. The argument against it is that you might be limiting well-earned opportunities for some of the guys lower on the list. 

Moran for example posted a 2.21 ERA while averaging 12.0 K/9 and allowing zero homers in 41 innings for the Twins last year, and he's about to turn 26. Does he really deserve to be buried back in Triple-A with another vet of questionable superiority stacked above him on the depth chart?

The Twins are betting on manufacturing relief arms over the course of the season.

Even if the Twins are mostly right about the pitchers mentioned above, they'll need to rely on an influx of talent throughout the course of the season, because that's always the case. The underlying premise seems to be one guiding this front office philosophically from a bullpen standpoint: we can find them.

Maybe that means extracting good performances out of minor-league signings and waiver claims, such as Danny Coulombe and Oliver Ortega. They've been okay at that, on the fringes. But really, it comes down to identifying pitchers from a wide-ranging pool of flawed starters who can elevate into true relief weapons. 

We saw this last year with Durán and Jax, and I suspect the Twins feel they're only scratching the surface. Keep a close eye on names like Josh Winder, Ronny Henriquez, Jordan Balazovic, Blayne Enlow, and Brent Headrick as candidates to shift to relief and make a major big-league impact. 

This philosophy that basically boils down to, "Capable relievers are everywhere, but volatile, why pay a premium?" is not exactly unique to the Twins, but it's one they're embracing with all their might. And it might ultimately play a huge role in defining their success this season.

Let's hope they're right on that bet, and the others inherent to a status quo offseason for the Minnesota bullpen.

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[ashbury]

Betting is exactly the right word.  And ultimately, the FO it betting on themselves, and their talent evaluation skills.  Like you, I hope they win this overall bet; losing would be costly.

[Jocko87]

Also Maeda as an experienced option if by some miracle all the starter options stay healthy.  The overall pitching depth is much better than last year and that has to flow to the bullpen somehow.  I don't know that they are betting on this any differently than they are betting on any other position group.  Its a plan and as plans go I'm OK with it-first fire inbound. 

Well, OK except for the Pagan part, unless they see him as a low leverage rubber arm I'll be nervous.

[CRF]

If they somehow use Pagan in anything other than mop up roles, in blow out games...then something is really wrong with whatever the master plan is. 

[wsnydes]

It's kind of this FOs MO to make these sorts of bets, so I agree entirely.  It's hard to argue with the results of that approach in the 2nd half of last season.  I only hope that playing with fire twice doesn't end up burning them.

[lukeduke1980]

There will still be a lot of 6th innings to pitch so I'm guessing that's Pagans role

[Old Twins Cap]

MLB bullpens are the easiest piece to remake during the season.

Individual performances vary quite a bit year to year.  No need to put together a perfect bullpen for the beginning of the year.

If your team is in it in July, then you go out and add.

[big dog]

When is any front office not betting on a bullpen? I don't see many bullpens where I think "wow, they're set for the year because nothing can possibly go wrong".

I don't know that having Fulmer would have made me all that happy- he wouldn't make up for a Duran/JLopez problem. Maybe a lack of improvement by Pagan. And will he be better than last year or worse?

A new pitcher would change the odds a bit, but it's always a bet.

[In My La Z boy]

24 minutes ago, lukeduke1980 said:

There will still be a lot of 6th innings to pitch so I'm guessing that's Pagans role

I'll be interested in the starter strategy, and if Rocco does indeed protect these guys like last year. Quite taboo to let anyone get near 100 pitches, especially early in the season last year. I am hoping for such starter depth that we see Maeda and Balazovic in the pen, with SWR coming fast, and big young guys like Ryan/Ober & Lopez stepping into 35 start/200 innings roles. 

[miracleb]

I feel like Lopez can and will bounce back.  Not as confident with Pagan (because we can look at the track record.)  Wes Johnson back to "turn him around!"  LOL!

[umterp23]

Pagan and low leverage situations was the mantra last year after he blew lead after lead vs Cleveland.  Pagan in mop up duty in potential blowouts is the maximum exposure we should be seeing him in.  Sure hope he proves me wrong, just don't see it happening.

[RJA]

The FO may be right that the bullpen is fine, and I certainly hope that is the case.  But, I suspect Twins fans will get restless real quick if Pagan and Lopez come out and blow some games early.  Hopefully, they both start out strong and Duran remains other worldly in his performance.  

[mike8791]

I don't get it!  To their credit, the FO added some real talent in the offseason - Correa, Lopez, Gallo, Vazquez, Taylor.  As many have noted, barring a rerun of injuries like last year, the team's rotation has been greatly improved, the starting lineup looks capable of improvement, and the bench is much  deeper.  

So why stop with the bullpen.? Any team that is committed to a successful run in the postseason should aim for a shutdown bulletin - 3 late-inning relievers who can do just that, even against teams like Houston and the Yanks.  As you pointed out, Nick, we currently have Duran and lots of question marks.  Lopez has shown great potential, but in one half of a season.  No one else in this pen has shown that shutdown ability consistently.  Jax allowed 42% of inherited runners to score, Thielbar is at an age where he could fall off the cliff, and the rest are just big question marks.  After seeing the last 2 seasons torpedoed by ineffective relief, is it hubris that prevents this FO from spending an extra $5 -10MM to sign an established reliever like Chafin or Moore?  Would either of these two bolster a pen that includes Pagan?

Defending Falvey for doing nothing about the pen because of a better second half misses the point:  the current Twins bullpen is relying very heavily on one reliever, Duran, to repeat last year's performance.  An injury to him would be disastrous to hope for returning to the playoffs - and winning at least one game!  I hope Falvey's bet pays off, but if not, by any reasonable accountability,  his failure to act here is a fireable offense.  

[mikelink45]

I love all the comments.  It is obvious that we see Pagan in a different light than the FO.  I have no faith in him.  Lopez has only had 1/2 of one season where he shined.  So returning to form might actually be what he did once he got here.  I hope not.

Selecting one stat like FIP is not satisfying to me.  The real test is in the standings and we were below 500 and we were a bullpen dependent team with 4 innings a game coming out of the pen.

I am hoping, but not buying in until I see it in action. 

[Trov]

I cannot think of a single team that does not build their pen similarly.  I mean even the teams that try to go out and spend big on top pen arms normally regret that and build bigger from tweaks on guys they picked up for less, or moving starters to pen.  I bet if you go back and look at the top relief contracts of all time, only a couple held up.  Also, teams are betting on their top guys staying healthy.  When trades need to be made they are, but no team goes into a season trying to have 7 closers in their pen paying them all 10 mil plus. 

[saviking]

I cringe when I hear the word Pagan. I don't think he has the mental makeup it takes to pitch in any type of stressful situation .. 

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, miracleb said:

I feel like Lopez can and will bounce back.  Not as confident with Pagan (because we can look at the track record.)  Wes Johnson back to "turn him around!"  LOL!

Lopez has 4.5 years of not good and .5 years of really good. Got my fingers crossed, but to me he’s a half step behind Pagan heading out the door.

[JD-TWINS]

I’d really like Ober to be our 5th starter through June-July. Use his healthy innings in the SHOW & not St Paul…………transitioning to one of Varland/SWR/Maeda.

Maeda in the Pen for first half works him back slowly and gives us a key middle innings, long guy, a couple times per week.

Matt Moore is out there & so is Brad Hand……one FA pick up please.

Maeda - Moore - Megill - Moran - Jax - López - Thielbar - Duran………good mix of veterans & youth……….good mix of right & left.

Alcala & a couple others in St. Paul

Move Pagán by end of Spring Training.

[Dman]

 Not sure what to think about the pen.  I have been back and forth pretty much on the fence about it all offseason.  My only thought is that it would have been nice to find a solid to elite lefty just in case Theilbar gets injured or falls off a cliff and or Moran falls apart.

For righties they have some depth with Henriquez, Winder, Sands, Dobnak, Varland, SWR, etc. So there are arms back there for them to use and if they are using 40 man spots on those guys they should try to figure out if they can play or be useful at the MLB level or not.   There will be more players that need to added for next year and 40 man spots are valuable.

I just hope the pen will stay in the top 4 all year this year.  This team might have trouble scoring runs so the pen is going to be important IMO.

[jjswol]

I am not overly concerned about Pagan, he either performs or he doesn't. I am guessing he is on a short leash to begin the season. A bigger gamble is Carlos Correa because if he goes down with an ankle issue Minnesota becomes the laughing stock of MLB and ownership pretty much has no choice but to jettison Falvey and Levine. See, there is always a silver lining to be found.

[EGFTShaw]

First, I kind of like the positive feel to what I thought was going to be another bashing article from the headline.  Or maybe pre-coffee has me overly cynical this Monday morning.

That said, 2nd half they were 4th?

Understand that was with Pagan doing Pagan things and Lopez not doing 1st half Lopez things.  If Lopez continued his first 1/2 All Star approach they probably would have been higher than 4th.

I am not so down on Pagan as others are primarily because I trust the evaluators.  I only pretend to know what I am doing here.  It appears it is not just the Twins FO that like what Pagan has to potentially offer.

You have to be careful of reacting from emotion vs logic.

Cutting bait with some "hack" named Ortiz did not turn out well.

Flip side argument is that everyone was high on Sano, and he just could not (so far), improve his approach at the plate.

I am good with this team as it stands.

I sacrificed a Packer Backer to the Baseball Gods for better health this year.

[gunnarthor]

My guess is we will have some moments of surprisingly good performance so Nick can write a few "see, what did we tell you" and "Falvey and Levine prove the doubters wrong" but, over the course of the year, the pitching staff is a huge problem and we finish below .500 and Nick can write a few "how injuries derailed the Twins" stories.

This was a bad team last year and, while I liked the Arraez trade, this team hasn't done nearly enough to improve. We have some depth on offense but our ceilings are generally limited. Our pitching staff could be a dumpster fire. A lot has to go right for us to finish above .500 and not all that much has to go wrong for us to crash and burn. And the "go right" category requires players playing well above their norm and/or realistic expectations AND be very healthy.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

3 hours ago, big dog said:

When is any front office not betting on a bullpen? I don't see many bullpens where I think "wow, they're set for the year because nothing can possibly go wrong".

EXACTLY THIS.   At some point, we need to trust the talent evaluators and hope/believe they have done a good job in putting this together.  One or two injuries to the wrong people derails the entire plan, but again, it’s the same for every team.  Plus, it really is possible to build the bullpen on the fly at least to a certain extent.  

As to the naysayers about “this mediocre starting pitching staff” or “this disastrous starting rotation”, WHEN exactly have you as a Twins fan EVER seen a better starting rotation for the season on a MN Twins team?  I only go back to the mid-seventies so if you hit me with Camilo Pasquale, Mudcat Grant, Jim Perry, et al, perhaps you may have a point, but since then. . .  I don’t think so. 

[old nurse]

4 hours ago, CRF said:

If they somehow use Pagan in anything other than mop up roles, in blow out games...then something is really wrong with whatever the master plan is. 

The master plan probably includes getting Pagán to pitch as effectively as possible 

[Ricky Vaughn]

I don't know if Pagon is fixable. My gut says no, every time he was in a big moment he would lay a pitch right down the middle. When I think about Lopez all I can see is him giving up a game losing hit and being on his hands and knees beating the pitching rubber. Is he unable to control his emotions. As Gaetti once said, Its hard to play when both hands are around your throat. I think both these guys have that problem.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

I still think they are a little short in the BP and that they may be counting on the stars to align here.  It's nice to try to save money by getting prospect starting pitchers in the pen, but that usually takes a few years, e.g. May, Rogers, Theilbar, etc.  Also, we can't expect the good health in the BP like last year to continue.

I felt ill seeing what we gave up to Baltimore for Lopez at the trade deadline.  I think BP pieces are much cheaper via FA this time of year.  We still have Brad Hand out there and worst case he would push a prospect like Winder or Moran to St. Paul.  If he can't produce, then release him and bring up the prospect.

[JD-TWINS]

7 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

EXACTLY THIS.   At some point, we need to trust the talent evaluators and hope/believe they have done a good job in putting this together.  One or two injuries to the wrong people derails the entire plan, but again, it’s the same for every team.  Plus, it really is possible to build the bullpen on the fly at least to a certain extent.  

As to the naysayers about “this mediocre starting pitching staff” or “this disastrous starting rotation”, WHEN exactly have you as a Twins fan EVER seen a better starting rotation for the season on a MN Twins team?  I only go back to the mid-seventies so if you hit me with Camilo Pasquale, Mudcat Grant, Jim Perry, et al, perhaps you may have a point, but since then. . .  I don’t think so. 

Go back to the mid-60’s over 4-5 differing years with that staff and add Dave Boswell - Dean Chance - & HOF Jim Kaat.

We have not had this much starting depth/talent that I can recall since.

Santana & Liriano (prior to injury) with maybe Radke? Not 5 guys. We don’t have the Viola or Santana or Blyleven on this staff but we have 4-5 Scott Erickson’s. 

[nicksaviking]

I don't know, the Twins went and got two of the best relievers available at the deadline last year too and that didn't work out. Putting together a bullpen is a gamble any way you do it, those pitchers just don't tend to be reliable year in and year out, or team in and team out.  

Is rolling with the guys they have really any more of a risk than rolling with guys that were on other teams last year? 

[jmlease1]

26 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

My guess is we will have some moments of surprisingly good performance so Nick can write a few "see, what did we tell you" and "Falvey and Levine prove the doubters wrong" but, over the course of the year, the pitching staff is a huge problem and we finish below .500 and Nick can write a few "how injuries derailed the Twins" stories.

This was a bad team last year and, while I liked the Arraez trade, this team hasn't done nearly enough to improve. We have some depth on offense but our ceilings are generally limited. Our pitching staff could be a dumpster fire. A lot has to go right for us to finish above .500 and not all that much has to go wrong for us to crash and burn. And the "go right" category requires players playing well above their norm and/or realistic expectations AND be very healthy.

I forget who was in first place in the division for like 3 months of the season last year? Detroit? No, that was the Twins! This wasn't a bad team last year until everyone got hurt. When you're starting your 10th choice in the OF in September, then there's a problem, but it's not that the team as a whole was bad. (I mean in a critical september series we had to run out cave, celestino, and contreras as the starting OF with Billy hamilton, Jermaine palacios, and Sandy Leon as the bench options. but that was because injuries wiped out everyone)

The twins have not spent on the bullpen because they have rightly seen that the variance in performance often doesn't get you anything when you drop $3-6M  AAV on a guy, and you're often better off finding internal options and sorting through cheaper guys that you can churn if they show they don't have it any longer. That's been the Tampa model: get 3-5 core pieces in your 'pen, and then fill it in more on the fly as you need to, without giving starter money to fungible relievers. Would I have preferred they go sign a guy and replace Pagan? Sure, because I'm worried about sunk cost fallacy and fan PTSD with Pagan and there looked to be guys that were RH options for $3-5M that could have bene trustworthy hands. but overall the bullpen looks pretty good, with some high upside guys in there and few who we're hoping will have a bounce back year.

Thielbar has been very good for 3 years; it's a little silly to question him based on him being out of baseball years ago. Jax had a very successful year as a reliever, there's little reason to think he can't be successful this season. Duran was amazing, and relief seems to be the best way to keep his elbow healthy, not a reason to be more concerned. Moran has control issues, but has an awesome changeup and isn't slated to be a high-leverage guy. Alcala was quality before injury. Lopez might be the biggest question mark (outside of PTSD Pagan), but showed the talent to be an all-star.

There are questions about the bullpen, but you can probably make the same or equally valid questions about every bullpen in baseball. take the ChiSox: their elite closer is going to miss significant time (if not the whole season) because of cancer treatments, their next best reliever (reynaldo lopez) last season just became a full-time reliever in 2022. Their most used reliever last season has had his WPA decline for 3 seasons in a row, and their 2nd most used reliever from last year has had a negative WPA 4 years in a row. neither of these guys (Graveman & Ruiz) have particularly strong peripherals (WHIP of 1.4? That was Tyler Duffey last season and we cut him).

Twins bullpen looks pretty solid.

 

[big dog]

<OK, not related to bullpens, except that we won't have this kind of starting pitching in today's environment no matter how good they are>

Looking back at some Twins staffs- how's this for a group of healthy innings-eaters?

2004                    record  GS     ERA       IP      ERA+    FIP

Johan Santana     20-6     34     2.61     228     182     2.92

Brad Radke            11-8      34     3.48    219.2   136     3.55

Carlos Silva           14-8      33    4.21      203     112     4.36

Kyle Lohse             9-13      34    5.34     199      89     5.06

Four guys with 33 or 34 starts. Wow. Where was Hoss Radbourn? (Although giving Lohse 34 starts isn't exactly a huge success, at least he was durable.)

Other guys who started:

Terry Mulholland, 15

Seth Greisinger, 9

Matt Guerrier, 2

J.D. Durbin, 1