Twins' Outfield is Custom-Made for their Flyball Rotation

[Greggory Masterson]

Some matches are made in heaven. Others are made at One Twins Way.

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

When Michael A. Taylor signed with the Twins in January, the defensive outlook on the outfield entered the absurd territory. Taylor is a Gold Glove centerfielder joining an outfield that already features two Gold Glove outfielders in Byron Buxton and Joey Gallo. The three occupy the top three spots in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) since 2020 among outfielders.

Max Kepler, a great fielder in his own right (22nd in DRS), is slated to get most of the time in the right field. He joins Buxton and Taylor in the top 9 in Outs Above Average since 2020 (OAA; 8th, 9th, and 6th, respectively).

If defensive metrics aren't your thing—they're far from perfect—do this mental exercise. Close your eyes and think of a defensive player that you would rather have at each position. (No, you can't say "Juan Soto," despite his being a Gold Glove finalist in 2022; be honest). The list for each is probably relatively short. To be in that type of position at all three spots is special.

Because of the presence of four elite defenders, the Twins will be able to consistently mix and match to put a quality outfield behind their pitchers every day. All four players mentioned above can play serviceable-to-Gold-Glove centerfield. Gallo has won a Gold Glove in both corner positions. Taylor has left and right field experience as a role player in Washington.

You can then add to that group reserve outfielders Nick Gordon and Trevor Larnach, who have been solid outfielders early in their careers, and Gilberto Celestino at Triple-A, who has the tools to be a good outfielder himself. All listed names except Larnach can provide centerfield defense for the team. If you need more convincing, check out Ted's case for the Minnesota outfield being the best in baseball in 2023 and Theo's discussion on the centerfield depth.

I'm not here to make those cases. Instead, I want to make the case that bringing Taylor in to complete an elite outfield defense is a perfect fit for the current roster.

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Baseball teams, more than teams in almost all other sports, can be built by acquiring the best talent, regardless of fit, given the independence of baseball as a sport. As your uncle or drinking buddy has probably told you at least once, "There's only one ball in the NBA." Baseball doesn't fall victim to that issue. Joey Gallo, for example, was signed this offseason because the front office believed they could get value out of him; roster space be damned. 

However, not all player acquisitions are based on taking the greatest talent. No team can survive throwing seven left-handed first basemen out into the field, no matter how well they hit the ball. These additions can be need-based complementary, as they depend on the team's current state, altering it to be better. 

Carlos Correa's signing may fall under the Sign as Much Talent as Possible scheme, but it was also need-based, as it filled a gaping hole at shortstop. The Christian Vazquez signing also falls into the need-based category, as the team lacked a player they felt comfortable relying on for 95 starts at catcher in 2023. Both players are talented but more valuable on a team like the Twins, which had a pressing need at each position.

Not all complementary acquisitions are based on need or upgrading at a position, though. Some are more context complementary. Take, for example, the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Big bats and speedy outfielders complement the playing environment in Denver, so finding a player who checks those boxes can be considered a complementary addition because their value to the team goes beyond their true talent.

The same idea can apply to personnel already on the team, such as the popular idea early this offseason of finding a left-handed catcher to pair with Ryan Jeffers. Andrelton Simmons is not very useful if there aren't a lot of balls hit in the infield. In that vein, compiling a squad of elite defensive outfielders compliments the current pitching staff quite well.

The Twins do not have a groundball pitching staff. Only two pitchers—Jhoan Duran and Jorge Lopez—qualify as groundball pitchers (greater than 44% groundball percentage, per FanGraphs). Among the 13 pitchers slated to make the Opening Day roster, only five had a fly ball percentage (FB%) lower than average (35%), with Pablo Lopez (33%) being the only starter below 35%.

Joe Ryan (54%), Bailey Ober (51%), and Tyler Mahle (48%) each had a sky-high (no pun intended) 2022 FB% in the rotation—higher than the Twin's all-time starting pitcher leader in the statistic, Kevin Slowey (min. 150 IP). Caleb Thielbar (47%) and everybody's favorite fly-ball-giver-upper Emilio Pagan (40%) paced the bullpen in allowing shots into the outfield.

The Twins ranked 14th in FB% in 2022 at 37.5%. Extrapolating last year's stats onto Steamer projections for innings thrown in 2023, the pitching staff would have a FB% of 39.3, a rate just below Michael Pineda's career rate with the Twins (39.5%). That 39.3% would rank 9th among teams in 2022. More projected innings from Ober and Mahle would explain the increase, among other minor personnel changes.

Will the Twins lead the league in 2023 FB%? Probably not, but they're likely to give up more than the average staff. That fact makes the Taylor trade (and, to a lesser extent, the Gallo signing) more exciting. Elite outfield defense is only beneficial if balls are hit to them at an above-average rate. If the team gives up fly balls at the same rate as Michael Pineda, the outfield will have plenty of balls to track down. Free agent bullpen arms like Matt Wisler (57%) or Matt Moore (39.4%) may even look more appetizing.

This newly-constructed outfield helps the Twins as much or more than it would help any team. Although many fans expected the complementary fourth outfielder piece to be a righty with some thump, the Twins zagged to ensure that their outfield defense would be good-to-elite, no matter which of their top 7 outfielders took the field each day. Their fly-ball-happy pitchers will love them for that.

Not even raindrops stand a chance.

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As a bonus bit of fun, can you imagine this zany outfield alignment suggested by Mike Petriello on Twitter featuring Buxton and Taylor roaming the outfield with their elite range and former third baseman Joey Gallo in short right against an extreme-pull lefty? Too bad the Twins have two of the usual suspects playing for them right now.

 

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[JD-TWINS]

Appreciate the depth comments & the detailing of each guy’s contribution capabilities.

My opinion, I still think Gordon & Larnach combine for 170  starts in the OF for offensive punch in the line-up.

That’s Buxton 80 - Taylor 40 - Kepler 110 - Gallo 80 ……Buxton DH 50 games & Gallo at 1B 20 games & 20 games at DH.

We have 6 OF in the 26 man mix with a healthy Kirilof being another option. There’s been mention of Farmer in a corner OF spot at some point as well.

All good - but please quit discussing Gilberto Celestino like he’s got a probable or even a potential spot in our outfield in ‘23!!

[Doctor Gast]

It's easy to be excited about this OF depth. With such abundance of OFers, you can't help but think some where during the season someone will be moved. After Celestino get his adequate time in AAA, he should be a very capable OFer.

[Greggory Masterson]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

I’m not terribly excited about Celestino’s 2023 prospects, but I’ll gladly take a bet that he will play outfield for the Twins this year. Name your price!

[darin617]

This will be good as long as the ball stays in the park. All of them can sure cover some ground.

[Reptevia]

“No team can survive throwing seven left-handed first basemen out into the field, no matter how well they hit the ball.”

Also, no team can survive with Jeffers, Kepler and Gallo in the same lineup. Three automatic outs is too much of a lead to give up unless we win a lot of 2-1 games. Yes, we have FB pitchers. Unfortunately, a lot of the flys aren’t catchable when they’re in the stands. It should be an interesting real world/real time demonstration of how much defensive WAR is really worth. 

[rv78]

No doubt defense is the cue here. The bigger question that carries a lot of doubt in the opposite direction is, can any of them hit? Great defense doesn't win games alone if you can't score.

[Hans Birkeland]

A team whose biggest strength is outfield defense, yet their 8th and 9th inning guys are the lone ground ball oriented pitchers. I'm sure it'll be fine.

[miracleb]

"As a bonus bit of fun, can you imagine this zany outfield alignment suggested by Mike Petriello on Twitter featuring Buxton and Taylor roaming the outfield with their elite range and former third baseman Joey Gallo in short right against an extreme-pull lefty?"
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I could warm up to this!   Now, without the "shift" in MLB, we could do this when guys like Kepler come to the plate!  Oh wait.......

:)

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

I like the approach of building up our defense to help the pitching staff.  That the OF components match up nicely with an attribute that our pitchers have is all the better.

Heck, we tried bomba and other approaches and they've not worked.  Why not try this approach.  I see lots of low scoring games coming our way this year.