How Good is the Twins' Infield Defense?

[Hunter McCall]

Defensive metrics suggest the Twins’ infield defense will be a weakness this year.
 

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

The Minnesota Twins' defensive outfield should be stellar and fun to watch in 2022. With Byron Buxton, Joey Gallo, Max Kepler, and Michael A. Taylor all providing close to elite-level production and Trevor Larnach proving to be a solid defensive outfielder, the team shouldn't have many issues producing one of the best defensive outfields in Major League Baseball 

But how good is the infield defense?

The Opening Day infield will likely feature Jose Miranda at third base, Carlos Correa at shortstop, Jorge Polanco at second base, Alex Kirilloff at first base, and a backstop pairing of Christian Vazquez and Ryan Jeffers. In this article, I will not include any data on Alex Kirilloff at first base simply because it is a new position for him, and there is very minimal data to make any assumptions on how he will perform defensively.

Fielding goes far beyond just putouts and errors, so to judge how good the Twins' infield is defensively, we will look at several different stats: Outs Above Average (OAA), Runs Above Average (RAA), and Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). Each of these stats uses a formula to dictate where a fielder sits compared to the average MLB player.

If a player has a positive number in the OAA and RAA stat, they were better than average. If that number is negative, they were below average. DRS tells us how many runs that player saved with their glove. Again, if that number is positive, that is the number of runs they saved with their fielding ability in 2022. If the number is negative, they accounted for giving up that many runs over the year. If a player boots a ball with a runner on third base and that runner scores, the player doesn't automatically get -1 DRS, just as hitting a walk-off home run doesn't automatically give a player 1 WAR. All these stats are accumulated throughout every ball in play in the season.

With those stats briefly explained, how did the Twins infield fair in 2022? We can start with the good news: the Twins catchers were fantastic. Christian Vazquez accounted for 11 DRS over 918 innings, and Ryan Jeffers had 4 DRS in just 496 innings. No matter who plays catcher for the Twins in 2022, they are sure to be very reliable defensively. Not to mention, both should also be above-average hitting catchers at the plate. I like what the Twins have done here with the position.

The next best infield defender in 2022 was Carlos Correa. In 2021, Correa was elite at the position, compiling 12 OAA, 9 RAA, and 21 DRS on his way to winning a Gold Glove Award. To say his numbers dipped in 2022 would be quite an understatement. Last year, Correa produced -3 OAA, -2 RAA, and 3 DRS. 

This dramatic number dip is shocking because the eye test told us that Correa was a terrific defender in 2022. Though the numbers don't back that up, there is still a chance that Correa rebounds in 2023 and returns to at least being a solid fielder. Just two years removed from an elite-level campaign, Correa is a candidate for positive regression. 

However, there is also the general belief around the league that Correa will eventually move to third base. Maybe 2022 is the start of the defensive deterioration that will push him there sooner rather than later.

The remaining two infielders, Jose Miranda and Jorge Polanco were not good in the field in 2022. We can start with Miranda, who split time at first and third base last year. In 2022, Miranda played 595.1 innings at first base and 246.2 innings at third base. While playing first, Miranda accounted for -4 OAA and -3 RAA. At third, he was right around league average, accounting for 0 OAA and 0 RAA. Overall, Miranda produced -6 DRS on the year in his split time at both positions.

Miranda is set to be the Twins full time third baseman this year, so we will get a better read on how he is at third base. If Miranda shows to be a below average fielder at third base, this will likely be his last year playing third base consistently, as I think when Royce Lewis returns, he could fit at third as a plus defender. While his numbers at first weren’t good in 2022, I think Miranda will be at least a league average defender at first baseman if given a full-time role, which would likely be where he ends up if Lewis takes over third. Miranda’s bat will continue to play, but he will need to continue to work on his glove.

Polanco was not a good defender in 2022. Polanco has never been a good fielder. He was atrocious defensively at shortstop in 2019 but is also well below average at second base. Last year, Polanco had -9 OAA, -7 RAA, and -1 DRS. Polanco is another player, like Miranda, who makes his money at the plate. If Polanco can continue to provide solid production at the plate, he will provide excellent value to the Twins, especially with his team-friendly contract. However, unless he shifts his focus, Polanco will continue to be a defensive liability.

"Nothing falls but raindrops" may again be the theme of the outfield as they help out their fly-ball pitchers by making spectacular web gem-type plays day in and day out, but the infield defense is flawed. Even with the infield weighing them down, I think the Twins' defense will be top 10 in 2023. There's a chance the infield will experience a bit of positive regression defensively, and the Minnesota Twins will be an all-around enjoyable defensive team to watch.

 

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[Sherry Cerny]

I absolutely LOVED this article. I for one was not in the “Correa is outstanding” camp, so the analysis and outlook here makes all the sense in the world for third base. I’m really hoping AK stays healthy so we can truly is him and see him grow. Loved this article, great read! 

[JD-TWINS]

Offense is needed on all MLB clubs.

We’re gonna role with a switch hitting,  powerful former starting SS at 2B. At SS one of the year’s most coveted Free Agents. At 1B a potential offensive All-Star. As our Utility back-up and star against LH pitching, another former starting SS in the SHOW. At 3B a probable .270 - 22HR - 80 RBI guy. SOLID catcher with a .274 career BA.

Going to have to live with the defensive infield that can provide RUNS!!!

Not many perfect clubs out there……..

[Doctor Gast]

There's no mention of Farmer's defensive #s, if Miranda doesn't improve enough at 3B, Farmer will take over there.

Polanco played out of position at SS and his ankles suffered it for it. '21 was his 1st year away from SS & stress on his ankles. '22 Polanco played hurt for most of the season. 1st his back, he was rested & recovered later his knee, they played him hurt until he could no longer take the field. It was obvious that Polanco was playing well below 100%. '23 if not allowed to play hurt, IMO will continue to progress at his short time of doing so at 2B.

Season	Team	Level	Pos	Inn	rSZ	rCERA	rSB	rGDP	rARM	rGFP	rPM	DRS	ARM	DPR	RngR	ErrR	UZR	UZR/150	FRM	OAA	RAA
2016	MIN	MLB	2B	43.0				0		0	-1	-1		0.1	0.3	-0.5	-0.1	-4.7		0	0
2021	MIN	MLB	2B	971.1				1		-1	3	3		0.2	0.4	-4.0	-3.4	-10.5		-1	-1

IMO Correa was bored with the Twins massive shift. The shift ban we'll see a different Correa (for the better). With addition of Lewis our INF depth vastly improve. So I have a better perspective of our INF.

 

[Fatbat]

Interesting numbers indeed. Anyone know if those stats are tracked at the milb level? Positive regression would be a welcome scenario after all the health related issues since 2019. 

[Hunter McCall]

4 hours ago, Sherry Cerny said:

I absolutely LOVED this article. I for one was not in the “Correa is outstanding” camp, so the analysis and outlook here makes all the sense in the world for third base. I’m really hoping AK stays healthy so we can truly is him and see him grow. Loved this article, great read! 

Thank you Sherry! I’m glad you enjoyed it!

[Hunter McCall]

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Offense is needed on all MLB clubs.

We’re gonna role with a switch hitting,  powerful former starting SS at 2B. At SS one of the year’s most coveted Free Agents. At 1B a potential offensive All-Star. As our Utility back-up and star against LH pitching, another former starting SS in the SHOW. At 3B a probable .270 - 22HR - 80 RBI guy. SOLID catcher with a .274 career BA.

Going to have to live with the defensive infield that can provide RUNS!!!

Not many perfect clubs out there……..

Couldn’t agree more! Was just a topic I was interested about, so I decided to research and do an article! The results surprised me a bit. I think the Twins will be very good in 2023, and the mediocre infield defense won’t have much impact.

[Hunter McCall]

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

There's no mention of Farmer's defensive #s, if Miranda doesn't improve enough at 3B, Farmer will take over there.

Polanco played out of position at SS and his ankles suffered it for it. '21 was his 1st year away from SS & stress on his ankles. '22 Polanco played hurt for most of the season. 1st his back, he was rested & recovered later his knee, they played him hurt until he could no longer take the field. It was obvious that Polanco was playing well below 100%. '23 if not allowed to play hurt, IMO will continue to progress at his short time of doing so at 2B.

Season	Team	Level	Pos	Inn	rSZ	rCERA	rSB	rGDP	rARM	rGFP	rPM	DRS	ARM	DPR	RngR	ErrR	UZR	UZR/150	FRM	OAA	RAA
2016	MIN	MLB	2B	43.0				0		0	-1	-1		0.1	0.3	-0.5	-0.1	-4.7		0	0
2021	MIN	MLB	2B	971.1				1		-1	3	3		0.2	0.4	-4.0	-3.4	-10.5		-1	-1

IMO Correa was bored with the Twins massive shift. The shift ban we'll see a different Correa (for the better). With addition of Lewis our INF depth vastly improve. So I have a better perspective of our INF.

 

Great analysis! You’re right, there’s a lot more to the numbers than just the numbers! Thanks a bunch for this contribution!

[Hunter McCall]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

Interesting numbers indeed. Anyone know if those stats are tracked at the milb level? Positive regression would be a welcome scenario after all the health related issues since 2019. 

I spent a lot of time researching this exact thing for this article and I came to one conclusion; if they are out there, they aren’t easy to find😂

I think positive regression is coming, but even if not, I don’t think the mediocre infield defense will be this teams downfall. I’m an optimist, but I think this team will be really good, and I think when the dust settles this will be a top 10 defense.

[Cris E]

There are a lot of reasons to discount the defensive numbers a bit from last year, mostly the biblical injury plague, and there are more reasons to wonder how different 2023 will be that make projecting those numbers even harder. The shift is reduced, base stealing may return, health may return and everyone is a year older for good (Miranda) or ill (Polanco, Correa.)

I expect our infield defense will be average. Correa will be quite good again, Miranda will be OK, not horrible, Polanco will be around average and Kirilloff will be pretty good. I think they'll hit enough to make it work and it should be a good year.

[Hunter McCall]

16 minutes ago, Cris E said:

There are a lot of reasons to discount the defensive numbers a bit from last year, mostly the biblical injury plague, and there are more reasons to wonder how different 2023 will be that make projecting those numbers even harder. The shift is reduced, base stealing may return, health may return and everyone is a year older for good (Miranda) or ill (Polanco, Correa.)

I expect our infield defense will be average. Correa will be quite good again, Miranda will be OK, not horrible, Polanco will be around average and Kirilloff will be pretty good. I think they'll hit enough to make it work and it should be a good year.

I agree! There was a lot that went into the mediocre numbers last year. I think average is a good word to describe the unit. With the outfield defense as good as it is, this should be a top 10 defense.

[tony&rodney]

This was a well researched article with some solid information, which I applaud.

Nevertheless, having played, coached, managed, and watched thousands of games over too many decades I do not believe the current metrics for defense are as useful as those for pitching and hitting. Polanco was never a superior defender but always has been fair and steady. Correa is as dependable as one can be from shortstop. Miranda is raw, but he won't impact as many plays at third as he did at first. Kirilloff will be a major upgrade at first base. While I do think the Twins have a great defensive infield, the eyes say they are adequate. I'm always in favor of athletic defensive players, but for this season we should worry more about our outfielders when they bat than the infield gloves.

[dxpavelka]

Helps explain the 78 wins.  Fewer than 700 runs scored didn't help either.  Haven't really done much to improve either on either front.  Better hope having a deeper (and not necessarily better) rotation makes a big difference.  Stood pat on the bullpen as well.  This could well be a make or break year for a lot of folks.  Some of whom don't hit, catch or throw the baseball.

[Hunter McCall]

54 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

This was a well researched article with some solid information, which I applaud.

Nevertheless, having played, coached, managed, and watched thousands of games over too many decades I do not believe the current metrics for defense are as useful as those for pitching and hitting. Polanco was never a superior defender but always has been fair and steady. Correa is as dependable as one can be from shortstop. Miranda is raw, but he won't impact as many plays at third as he did at first. Kirilloff will be a major upgrade at first base. While I do think the Twins have a great defensive infield, the eyes say they are adequate. I'm always in favor of athletic defensive players, but for this season we should worry more about our outfielders when they bat than the infield gloves.

Thank you for your input! I agree with your take as well. The numbers say it was mediocre, but I think positive regression comes!

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Great article @Hunter McCall. One question, why did you include Miranda’s 246 mlb innings of 3B fielding, but ignore Kirilloff’s 345 mlb innings at 1B as SSS?

[Aerodeliria]

This is the elephant in the room. Bad defensive teams lose tight games by failing in critical situations. You can't outhit bad defending.

Polanco is a negative defender and always will be. His ankle might improve, but his footwork never will.

We hope Miranda improves but he is not a lockdown defender.

Correa is the player I worry about the least. I believe he'll play better.

Kirilloff at 1st is a mystery. 

[Jocko87]

Does anyone have a good idea how the new shift rules are going to affect the defensive metrics?  As mentioned, these are much less dependable metrics than pitching and hitting and going forward we will likely value a different type of defender.  Runs saved/OAA will be more tied to range? 

[Hunter McCall]

9 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Great article @Hunter McCall. One question, why did you include Miranda’s 246 mlb innings of 3B fielding, but ignore Kirilloff’s 345 mlb innings at 1B as SSS?

Thank you!

Great question as well! It was mostly because of the injuries honestly. You’re right though, I probably should’ve included a little blip. In 2021 he was actually above average at 1B. 2 OAA and 2 RAA. 

[Trov]

The one thing about some defensive stats, which I do like we have more than PO. Assists and Errors, but I know some do not look at each actual play, but look hit data.  I do believe OAA does a good job of measuring each ball hit even based on where the defender was, and even who was running.  It takes the full context into account using statcast.  

However, I think where one starts positioning wise may affect that as well.  Meaning CC was asked to play much more shift than ever before.  This can lead to some issues defending.  My hope is he will get back to his overall norm.  If you look at baseball reference defense for dWAR, CC was close to his career norm of just over 1 dWAR.  They use zone rating and runs saved to come up with their stat. 

Miranda was terrible at 1b last year.  He had no clue what he was doing.  He never played there, and despite what some people think all you need to do is catch the ball, that is not true.  Even harder when you are dealing with RH shifts where you are playing 30 feet from bag at times. Hopefully, sticking just at 3b will help him.  

[Cris E]

The shift rules changed but we just don't know how teams are going to react to them until they play some games.  For teams that still believe in the shift you may see middle infielders standing right at the enter line and sliding over to a shifted spot as soon as the pitch is thrown, or outfielders could be moved around or something. Some teams may just turn back the clock ten years and play straight up, and the world will be watching their numbers as well. It probably won't matter much as most infielders are really good at their jobs and baseball was just fine the way it was played for 120 years.

[Hunter McCall]

1 hour ago, Trov said:

The one thing about some defensive stats, which I do like we have more than PO. Assists and Errors, but I know some do not look at each actual play, but look hit data.  I do believe OAA does a good job of measuring each ball hit even based on where the defender was, and even who was running.  It takes the full context into account using statcast.  

However, I think where one starts positioning wise may affect that as well.  Meaning CC was asked to play much more shift than ever before.  This can lead to some issues defending.  My hope is he will get back to his overall norm.  If you look at baseball reference defense for dWAR, CC was close to his career norm of just over 1 dWAR.  They use zone rating and runs saved to come up with their stat. 

Miranda was terrible at 1b last year.  He had no clue what he was doing.  He never played there, and despite what some people think all you need to do is catch the ball, that is not true.  Even harder when you are dealing with RH shifts where you are playing 30 feet from bag at times. Hopefully, sticking just at 3b will help him.  

Spot on assessment! I agree with everything you stated! Thanks for sharing your thoughts!

[Hunter McCall]

1 hour ago, Cris E said:

The shift rules changed but we just don't know how teams are going to react to them until they play some games.  For teams that still believe in the shift you may see middle infielders standing right at the enter line and sliding over to a shifted spot as soon as the pitch is thrown, or outfielders could be moved around or something. Some teams may just turn back the clock ten years and play straight up, and the world will be watching their numbers as well. It probably won't matter much as most infielders are really good at their jobs and baseball was just fine the way it was played for 120 years.

It will be interesting to see how teams adjust! Will there be teams that bend the rules as far as they can to still get some semblance of a shift? You're right, we won't know until they roll the ball out there! Thank you for your comment!

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

Well, we need hitting infielders if we are to compensate for the limited offense of our defensive outfielders.

The best idea is to get more balanced offense/defensive infielders.  I believe we have one coming in Lewis and maybe down the road Lee will be able to provide both offense and good defense.

The more of those type of players we can compile, the better off we will be.  That said, they do not come cheap in FA nor in draft capital.

[jmlease1]

If Correa bounces back on the metrics that will make a significant difference. But I'm a little confused on how Miranda is assessed: the metrics have him as league average at 3B last year, and that's the position he's slated to play full-time this season, why are we assessing him as not being good defensively in 2022? he struggled at 1B, which was essentially a brand-new position for him, but the metric and eye test have him as being average/passable at 3B.

I dunno. I look at the team and Miranda looks to be pretty average, Correa superior (even if he had a down year last season defensively by the metrics), Polanco below average, and Kirilloff to be above average. there's no disasters out there. the infield defense (especially if you include the catching) looks solid at worst to me.

Polanco gets whacked on pretty hard for his defense around here, I think. Polanco was pretty good defensively in 2021, dipped a little last year (not coincidentally when missing a lot more time for injury), so projecting him to be bad this season at 2B based primarily on last season alone might be a little too negative? Jorge Polanco was arguably better than Jose Altuve just as recently as 2021, maybe we shouldn't be looking to toss him on the scrap heap just yet.

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Possibly Correa's 2022 fielding data was negative due to his right ankle, which was  merely hanging on to his lower shin bone by a single ligament, according to the Giants and the Mets. 

[Hunter McCall]

15 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Possibly Correa's 2022 fielding data was negative due to his right ankle, which was  merely hanging on to his lower shin bone by a single ligament, according to the Giants and the Mets. 

Good point. It was clear he couldn't even stand by the time September rolled around! Amazing he didn't decide to retire!

[terrydactyls]

Does anyone else think that the term "positive regression" is odd?  Sounds like a contradiction in terms.

[Heiny]

On 2/14/2023 at 9:21 AM, terrydactyls said:

Does anyone else think that the term "positive regression" is odd?  Sounds like a contradiction in terms.

I "HATE" the term "positive regression".  Sounds like "un-peeing"!!!

[NotAboutWinning]

When talking about a negative outlier, the phrasing should be reversion to the mean.

[jorgenswest]

Are defensive metrics to the point where the year to year variance is low enough that we can use the previous season to project the next season? If there is a drop from one season to the next are they reliably indicative of a change in skill or is it just as likely random variation?