How Close Is Sonny Gray to Ace Status?

[Lou Hennessy]

While the Twins’ 2023 rotation looks much deeper than last year’s group, many would say that they still lack a true ace on the staff. How close is Sonny Gray to being that guy? 

Image courtesy of Lindsey Wasson-USA TODAY Sports

 

Pitchers and catchers officially report to spring training next week, and all eyes are going to be on a group of arms that make up the five-man starting rotation. Sure, a lot can happen throughout the course of the spring, but the club pretty much has five names penciled in for their starting corps. If healthy, veterans Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda, and Pablo Lopez join a rotation that will feature last year’s Opening Day starter, Joe Ryan. 

But the man that rounds out that group is the one that most closely resembles a frontline starter.
Sonny Gray was limited to just 120 innings pitched last year, but he mostly showed the peripheral stats that offer ace-level upside when he was able to take the field. That resulted in strong surface-level marks, including a 3.08 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP. His 2.7 BB/9 was the strongest mark in his last six seasons, and while his 8.8 K/9 was his lowest rate since 2018, he was able to get outs by allowing fewer barreled balls (78th percentile).

Unfortunately, a nagging hamstring issue put Gray on the shelf at various points during the 2022 campaign, including the final three weeks of the season. If these injury woes didn’t hold him back, how close would he be to a true ace?

Let’s say he remained healthy enough to keep going at the same pace in the final three weeks last year. That probably equates to about four additional appearances, not to mention his final start on September 19th when he had to leave in the third inning due to his hamstring issue. So let’s say about five additional starts. If he averaged around five innings in each of those games, he would have 25 additional innings under his belt. That puts him at just about 150 innings pitched.

That seems underwhelming at first, but it is definitely a full season in today’s major-league baseball. While it’s well below the American League leader (Framber Valdez, 201 IP), it puts him in the same conversation as other starting pitcher stars such as Luis Castillo (150 1/3 IP), Zack Wheeler (153 IP), Brandon Woodruff (153 1/3 IP) and Nestor Cortes (158 1/3 IP). All four of those pitchers have made All-Star game appearances in the last two years and are considered true frontline starters despite their lower innings totals. Gray’s ERA and WHIP marks in 2022 weren’t far off from these four either. 

Of course, this comparison is totally hypothetical. At the end of the day, Gray didn’t pitch those additional 25 innings, and who’s to say he would be just as effective if he had? But the point remains that his performance, when healthy, was commendable. So how can Gray and the Twins make sure that he’s in a position to remain mostly healthy in his contract year?

First, a regular offseason is bound to help. Due to the MLB lockout, players weren’t allowed to contact team officials from early December through February last year, and that hurt a lot of pitchers, Gray included. They couldn’t get that necessary communication with the training staff and were essentially on their own for nearly three months. Then, spring training was delayed and shortened, and Gray needed extra time to ramp up his activity. That’s not a winning combination for a veteran pitcher that has a very particular process. 
This year should be much more normal for Gray and the rest of the pitchers around the league. He has a normal off-season operation, a regular spring training, and not to mention, the further all pitchers get from the pandemic-shortened 2020 season the better. 

So with more normalcy in his pre-season routine, can his tools carry him to ace status as he enters his age-33 season? To do that, he’ll need to continue to evolve as a pitcher with diminished velocity. His fastball averaged just 92.1 MPH last season, but he was able to rely on heavy spin rates to still use it effectively. His heater averaged 2485 RPM last season, which was the fifth-highest among pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched. Other names atop that leaderboard include Joe Musgrove, Julio Urias, and Dylan Cease. 

If he can pair that heavy fastball with his curveball that batters only hit at a .193 clip with just a .273 slugging percentage, then he should be able to maintain his effectiveness as he ages. He can’t rely on pumping his fastball past his opponents anymore, but he can use it in an effort to get weak contact or to set up his "yacker" later in the at-bat. 

 

So yes, Gray falls short of ace status as things currently stand, but he’s not far off from being a comfortable Game 1 starter in a playoff series. At the very least, he has put himself in the same conversation as the frontline starters listed above, each of whom has a star-level reputation. 

 

What are your thoughts on what constitutes an "Ace" in today's MLB? Do you agree that Sonny Gray is probably a touch below "Ace," but would you be comfortable with him as a Game 1 starter in a playoff series? Jump in the comments and let us know your thoughts.

 

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[mikelink45]

ACE seems to be a term we apply to those on a HOF track - those who just seem like the will win no matter the game or the opponent.  That is not Grey.  His experience with the Yankees might demonstrate that the big lights are not for him. Can he be our number one - sure, I expect him to be, but I think the only thing that settles ACE debates is performance on the field.

10 years - 24.9 WAR.  An average of 2.5 - last year he was 2.4.  That is who he is and I am content with that. 

[Lou Hennessy]

12 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

ACE seems to be a term we apply to those on a HOF track - those who just seem like the will win no matter the game or the opponent.  That is not Grey.  His experience with the Yankees might demonstrate that the big lights are not for him. Can he be our number one - sure, I expect him to be, but I think the only thing that settles ACE debates is performance on the field.

10 years - 24.9 WAR.  An average of 2.5 - last year he was 2.4.  That is who he is and I am content with that. 

Interesting. I think I disagree on that definition of an Ace, but I agree that Gray isn't one at the moment. I'd take 2.4 WAR from him in 2023, but here's hoping it's even higher with a healthy season.

[Schmoeman5]

So the season hasn't even started yet and the topic is Aces. An Ace to me is a Frontline starter who is consistently dominant. He's the guy you give the ball to in a must win game situation or the guy who puts an end to a 3 game skid. He's your opening day starter. Gets 30 plus starts and throws 200 innings. And does it year in and year out. Gray has been a solid starter since coming up with the A's. His first few years he looked like he could be one of those guys. Will the Twins give him the opportunity to be a so called Ace? I doubt it. The Twins want their starters to go 5 solid innings, and maybe start the 6th. But the 1st hit or walk and they're going to the bullpen.I like Sonny Gray. He's a solid 2 or 3 with many other clubs. On some clubs he'd be a 4 or 5. If there's a potential Ace on the Twins it's either Ryan or someone coming up

[h2oface]

Can a pitcher ever be an ACE if the manager always pulls him after 5 innings or before?

[Lou Hennessy]

15 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

So the season hasn't even started yet and the topic is Aces. An Ace to me is a Frontline starter who is consistently dominant. He's the guy you give the ball to in a must win game situation or the guy who puts an end to a 3 game skid. He's your opening day starter. Gets 30 plus starts and throws 200 innings. And does it year in and year out. Gray has been a solid starter since coming up with the A's. His first few years he looked like he could be one of those guys. Will the Twins give him the opportunity to be a so called Ace? I doubt it. The Twins want their starters to go 5 solid innings, and maybe start the 6th. But the 1st hit or walk and they're going to the bullpen.I like Sonny Gray. He's a solid 2 or 3 with many other clubs. On some clubs he'd be a 4 or 5. If there's a potential Ace on the Twins it's either Ryan or someone coming up

Just curious -- How many aces do you think there are in baseball right now?

 

[Lou Hennessy]

7 minutes ago, h2oface said:

Can a pitcher ever be an ACE if the manager always pulls him after 5 innings or before?

Feels like quite the catch-22 here:

Gray can't be seen as an ace if Rocco pulls him before he faces the order for a third time.

Rocco can't reasonably keep Gray in if he gets nailed when facing the order for a third time. 

[TwinsDr2021]

So giving Gray credit for games he didn't pitch, but not giving the others the same latitude Woodruff (27 games), Cortes (28 games), Wheeler (26 games), Castillo (25 games) to the others seems like a huge stretch, especially since Gray hasn't been that pitcher in a while.

I am good with what Gray is, and hoping he becomes a guy a guy that is pitching into the 7th or 8th just about every start is probably setting yourself up for failure.

 

[LastOnePicked]

Gray strikes me as much closer to a #3 starter on a contender than an ace. Decent. Pretty good. You wouldn't buy tickets to go watch him pitch, and you wouldn't give away tickets when he's scheduled. The Reds were probably smart to move him when they did.

It is a little bit funny that there's a lot of chatter about playoff starts already. I hope folks remember that this is a team that finished well below .500 for the last two seasons. Let's see if they can survive July June May April Spring Training first.

[tony&rodney]

Sonny Gray is a good established MLB pitcher, respected across baseball. That is quite an accomplishment by itself.

However, no baseball person has ever deemed Gray an outright ace. When he was building his career with the A's he was a budding ace, but that never fully blossomed. Ace is an overblown term, yet it is often apt and we should still reserve a status for Verlander and those few pitchers who have managed to deliver across time and in volume with consistently high results. 

Who is a full blown argument. Cole, Bieber, Ohtani, and Verlander in the AL with several others building a strong case (Valdez, Manoah, Gilbert, Cease, and McClanahan.

Sonny Gray is such a fiery competitor and fun to watch. Let's hope he can stay healthy all year.

[h2oface]

25 minutes ago, Lou Hennessy said:

Feels like quite the catch-22 here:

Gray can't be seen as an ace if Rocco pulls him before he faces the order for a third time.

Rocco can't reasonably keep Gray in if he gets nailed when facing the order for a third time. 

Thank you for confirming. If Gray is getting nailed facing the order for the third time, there is no catch-22. No pitcher that can't get through the order 3 times consistently can be an ace. Giving up one hit in the 6th, even throw a walk in, and then getting pulled with, say, 87 pitches, even though it might be just the third hit given up the whole game, is not considered getting nailed in my book, That is when the pitcher becomes the ace and takes care of the flutter, and the game is not given to a blowpen to give it up.

 

[Lou Hennessy]

21 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

So giving Gray credit for games he didn't pitch, but not giving the others the same latitude Woodruff (27 games), Cortes (28 games), Wheeler (26 games), Castillo (25 games) to the others seems like a huge stretch, especially since Gray hasn't been that pitcher in a while.

I am good with what Gray is, and hoping he becomes a guy a guy that is pitching into the 7th or 8th just about every start is probably setting yourself up for failure.

 

"Of course, this comparison is totally hypothetical. At the end of the day, Gray didn’t pitch those additional 25 innings, and who’s to say he would be just as effective if he had?"

 

Definitely not trying to give him credit for games he didn't pitch. I was merely trying to show the quality of his work when he did pitch in 2022. FWIW I absolutely consider Woodruff, Cortes, Wheeler and Castillo to be far closer to ace-level than Gray. 

[mac098]

Personally, I believe that day of "Aces" are over. There just aren't those with the will or drive to finish the game when they start. There are a few players that have that drive anymore (Verlander, Scherzer, DeGrom). Those pitchers are literally game changers when they take the mound. The refuse to come out of the game, they make sure their team is in it all the way, and most importantly, they have that knack to be able to work out of jams when it comes to it. They're able to dig deep down and find that extra level when needed. 

But it's also extremely hard to define an "Ace" with words. It's more or less something that you can see (kind of like a balk). There really is no true definition, but more or less of a visual queue. 

Now onto Sonny. Is he Ace material? No. Is he a solid top of the of rotation starter? Yes. He seems like he has a safe ceiling of being a really good #2, with a floor of a #3. And if we had an entire rotation like that, I would take it in a heartbeat over having a true "Ace" and a rotation of #5's or middling arms. He just needs to step up and claim that head of the rotation for himself. Make it undisputed that he belongs there compared to the rest of our rotation. 

[Schmoeman5]

40 minutes ago, Lou Hennessy said:

Just curious -- How many aces do you think there are in baseball right now?

 

Hand to say. Maybe 3 or 4 now. Scherzer Verlander and Kershaw were aces, but they're in the twilight of their careers. Cole isn't as dominant as he once was. DeGrom if he can come back is one. The game has changed so much. And the metrics all say. Get me 5 or 6 and then bring in the pen. To me there a more closers now than ever. Not so many aces

[Lou Hennessy]

2 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Hand to say. Maybe 3 or 4 now. Scherzer Verlander and Kershaw were aces, but they're in the twilight of their careers. Cole isn't as dominant as he once was. DeGrom if he can come back is one. The game has changed so much. And the metrics all say. Get me 5 or 6 and then bring in the pen. To me there a more closers now than ever. Not so many aces

That's a really good point. The game has certainly changed. Maybe our definition of ace needs to change with it. Regardless, Gray certainly needs to level up if he's going to be in the same conversation as guys like Verlander, DeGrom, Kershaw, etc. 

[Doctor Gast]

Great article Lou. Love the fact that'll we have a normal ST. And agree with you that farther away from '20 covid better these SPs will pitch. Ace has been a pretty high standard for me. Being able pitch 6+ high quality of innings, game after game year after year. A pitcher when he pitches you believe he'd win the game for you.

We are at the point of need maybe to change the definition of "ace". Teams are more concerned about the quality of innings pitched instead of quantity. SPs aren't able or not allowed to pitch complete games. The game is no longer so dependent on the SP to solely win the game. SP is decreasingly in importance & the BP increasing. 

Ace could mean a SP when he pitches he gives us a chance to win on a regular basis against any team (here again a win is also dependent on how well the BP pitches) for years. Gray could be that guy but so could Lopez, Ryan or Mahle.

[Parfigliano]

8 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Hand to say. Maybe 3 or 4 now. Scherzer Verlander and Kershaw were aces, but they're in the twilight of their careers. Cole isn't as dominant as he once was. DeGrom if he can come back is one. The game has changed so much. And the metrics all say. Get me 5 or 6 and then bring in the pen. To me there a more closers now than ever. Not so many aces

Now ace starters are the past.  Ace closers will be the future.

[Lou Hennessy]

15 minutes ago, mac098 said:

Personally, I believe that day of "Aces" are over. There just aren't those with the will or drive to finish the game when they start. There are a few players that have that drive anymore (Verlander, Scherzer, DeGrom). Those pitchers are literally game changers when they take the mound. The refuse to come out of the game, they make sure their team is in it all the way, and most importantly, they have that knack to be able to work out of jams when it comes to it. They're able to dig deep down and find that extra level when needed. 

But it's also extremely hard to define an "Ace" with words. It's more or less something that you can see (kind of like a balk). There really is no true definition, but more or less of a visual queue. 

Now onto Sonny. Is he Ace material? No. Is he a solid top of the of rotation starter? Yes. He seems like he has a safe ceiling of being a really good #2, with a floor of a #3. And if we had an entire rotation like that, I would take it in a heartbeat over having a true "Ace" and a rotation of #5's or middling arms. He just needs to step up and claim that head of the rotation for himself. Make it undisputed that he belongs there compared to the rest of our rotation. 

I'm sorry but this take is just too logical, level-headed and reasonable. I'm going to have to ask you to bring some heat the next time you hop in these comments. 

 

All kidding aside -- I really like this response and it's just about where my head is at when it comes to this topic. 

[CRF]

In the traditional baseball sense...he's not an "ace". We don't have an "ace". We haven't had a pitcher that even remotely qualifies as an "ace", since Johan Santana was here. 

[Nine of twelve]

Can we please give up trying to categorize starting pitchers? I don't give two ****s whether someone on this site or at a major national sports outlet rates a particular pitcher an Ace, a 2, 3, 4, 5, or 47. Just find good pitchers, coach them to their best performance, and put them in the rotation.

[Linus]

Yea I think if anybody is going to write about a pitcher being an ace the first thing is to define what it means. 

[TwinsDr2021]

28 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

We are at the point of need maybe to change the definition of "ace". Teams are more concerned about the quality of innings pitched instead of quantity. SPs aren't able or not allowed to pitch complete games.

I don't accept that we need to change (or at least me) definition of ace, because that means us fans we are OK with teams taking out pitchers like, Kershaw, Verlander, Santana, Bieber, etc.. after 5/6 innings because of some crazy stats that include pitchers of all ilk. If teams really start taking out the best starting pitchers on the planet and using them the same way teams use pitchers like Bundy for example makes baseball worse off.  As a 50 year old imagine if we didn't get to see the greatness of pitchers like Johnson, Maddux, Pedro, Santana, Glavine, Clemens, Verlander, Kershaw and many, many others?

[roger]

Agree with the above comment and also don't care about who on the Twins staff may be or soon be an ACE.  What I see is a staff of more than five starters who are very good.  Give me five starters who are all likely #2 or #3 starters and the team is gonna win a lot of games.

Also agree there aren't a lot of true ACES out there.  Take Kershaw for example, he sure seems like one until the Dodgers get to the playoffs...then not so much.  Like to think that Verlander is an ACE, yet, didn't he struggle in the playoffs/series last year?  The only former Twin I would consider an ACE was Santana.  Liriano could have been, had he not been injured.

And personally, I am saddened with how the game is changing.  Was looking at Spahn's career the other day.  If memory serves, he had 68 shutouts.  Not 68 complete games, that was several hundred, but 68 complete game shutouts.  Would guess there weren't 68 complete games, forget them being shutouts, in all of baseball last year.  Maybe its time for starting pitchers to make a little less cash and give it the shut down relievers, like Duran.

[Verified Member]

Based on Schmoeman5's Ace definition of needing 200 IP here are last years pitchers that meet just that criteria:

• Nola - Phillies (205.0 IP)
• Alcantara - Marlins (228.2 IP)
• Cole - Yankees (200.2 IP)
• Mikolas - Cardinals (202.1 IP)
• Burnes - Brewers (202.0 IP)
• Bieber - Guardians (200.0 IP)
• Kelly - Diamondbacks (200.1 IP)
• Valdez - Astros (201.1 IP)

And those that pitched over 190 innings:

• Manoah - Blue Jays (196.2 IP)
• Darvish - Padres (194.2 IP)
• Webb - Giants (192.1 IP)
• Perez - Rangers (196.1 IP) - certainly an outlier year for him!

Data from Baseball Reference.

[Schmoeman5]

4 minutes ago, Verified Member said:

Based on Schmoeman5's Ace definition of needing 200 IP here are last years pitchers that meet just that criteria:

• Nola - Phillies (205.0 IP)
• Alcantara - Marlins (228.2 IP)
• Cole - Yankees (200.2 IP)
• Mikolas - Cardinals (202.1 IP)
• Burnes - Brewers (202.0 IP)
• Bieber - Guardians (200.0 IP)
• Kelly - Diamondbacks (200.1 IP)
• Valdez - Astros (201.1 IP)

And those that pitched over 190 innings:

• Manoah - Blue Jays (196.2 IP)
• Darvish - Padres (194.2 IP)
• Webb - Giants (192.1 IP)
• Perez - Rangers (196.1 IP) - certainly an outlier year for him!

Data from Baseball Reference.

Thanks for doing the legwork on that. And just looking at those numbers and pitchers, how many of them would you put ahead of Sunny Gray in the rotation if you had that option.

[jkcarew]

He's not very close to being an ace.

I'd say he has another $15M-$20M/yr to go before he gets there.

[DJL44]

He's good enough to start a playoff game. That's an excellent starter.

[EGFTShaw]

ACE - a guy who you can count on to stop your losing streak

FL Starter - a guy who would be a number 1 or number 2 pitcher on any team given most baseball teams. (Some teams have an ACE and are loaded with pitching)

#1 Starter - top tier of the FL Starters 

BPOYS - Best Pitcher On Your Staff

since Johan the Twins have had BPOYS guys  

Liriano (before TJ) and Johan that one summer were lights out  I miss that kind of pitching  

 

 

[EGFTShaw]

Follow Up: I can envision these Twins have 2-3 FL Starters with Gray, Ryan, Mahle & Lopez in that mix. 

i like Maeda, Ober, Varland, SWJ and Winder as well in the starters group 

[Nine of twelve]

3 minutes ago, EGFTShaw said:

 

Liriano (before TJ) and Johan that one summer were lights out  I miss that kind of pitching  

 

 

Yeah, for a good part of the season the eventual Cy Young winner was our second best starter.