Twins Daily 2023 Top Prospects: #6 Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP

[DJL44]

Read this article and then try not to root for him.

 

[2wins87]

9 minutes ago, se7799 said:

My question to anybody that may have input on him or an opinion.  Wasn't he a top 100 global prospect back with Toronto..maybe even top 50 by mlb?  If so why the drop?  Was it the bad year in 21 or just new pitchers added to lists..or something I am overlooking?  Thanks

Can't be entirely sure.  Like Nick said, he had a velocity jump in high school, but hasn't really maintained it consistently, so the lack of progression there is probably a big reason

Rankings for young guys always factor in a ton of projection, so they can be a bit dubious, and some might say systematically overly optimistic.  HS pitchers as a class are generally regarded as huge risks who have a terrible record of meeting their early projections.

There were actually a bunch of HS pitchers taken in 2018 with SWR.  Grayson Rodriguez is an example of a HS pitcher who continued to improve and hit his projections, and actually moved up to become a top 10 prospect in the game.  But he's more the exception that proves the rule.

Matthew Libertore, Cole Winn, and Ryan Weathers are other HS guys taken ahead of SWR who also had varying degrees of top 100 recognition.  But they've all had some stagnation or non-linear progression, and I think SWR still compares reasonably well to them.

[MN_ExPat]

He plays the beisbol very nice 

[stringer bell]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Read this article and then try not to root for him.

 

Yes, really nice article. I'm sure I'm not the only that noticed he at one point was throwing 99 mph fastballs. 

[davidborton]

"...But Woods Richardson's quirky mechanics can also become a source of inconsistency, leading to occasion command issues "

I only saw him pitch at StP and I focused totally on his mechanics. All upper body; no legs, per se.

If he trained, bulked those legs like Verlander did while out w/TJ surgery, he could add a couple of mph's to his FB and save wear and tear on his arm/shoulder.

[roger]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Read this article and then try not to root for him.

 

Fantastic article, thanks DJL44.

Raises a question, however.  If he was throwing in the mid-90's and touching the upper 90's in high school, where has the velo gone?

Also explains his dual last name.  Is a bit unusual as most people with two last names have a combo of their dad and mom's maiden name...don't they?  Had to be a great experience for him growing up so close to both his dads.  

That article sure as heck sounds like a young man who is capable of being more than a #5, perhaps much more.

[Brandon]

The question is can he be the next Berrios?  can he pitch 180 innings year in and year out and will he sign an extension to cover several free agent seasons so we can have him for 8 or 9 seasons and trade him towards the end for the next Berrios to keep the Berrios thread going.  Longevity of benefit from a 1rst round pick 30 years after the player (Berrios) was drafted is always nice...

[DJL44]

53 minutes ago, roger said:

Raises a question, however.  If he was throwing in the mid-90's and touching the upper 90's in high school, where has the velo gone?

This happens routinely. It is one thing to light up a radar gun at a scouting combine and another thing entirely to be able to locate with that velocity for an entire season.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

This happens routinely. It is one thing to light up a radar gun at a scouting combine and another thing entirely to be able to locate with that velocity for an entire season.

No, it was in games, and no, I'm thinking it does not happen routinely.

So yeah that would be my question, too. I had only read he tops out around 90. What happened to the velo? He might have a better chance to stick if he can get back into the mid to upper 90s

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

No, it was in games, and no, I'm thinking it does not happen routinely.

So yeah that would be my question, too. I had only read he tops out around 90. What happened to the velo? He might have a better chance to stick if he can get back into the mid to upper 90s

Go look through what pitchers are quoted as throwing at the draft and check in to see their velocity 3 years later. Draft velocity will almost always be higher.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

4 hours ago, 2wins87 said:

Only one mlb start, but enough to get a bit more info on his pitches.  I liked this chart showing his spin and break directions from baseball savant:

A lot of guys have "over the top" deliveries, but his is about as straight over the top as you can get, so he does have that bit of uniqueness going for him.

Don't--I can't stress this enough--don't take too much away from this, but when I was perusing for guys with sort of similar spin/break characteristics, I found this left-handed version:

Again, it doesn't mean too much. When I was looking for fastballs with similar break I also found Chase De Jong.  And this is late career Kershaw, who still gets it done but has impeccable command

Anyway, like others, I don't think you can ignore success in the high minors.  He will need to find more consistent velocity on his fastball; I know he can run it up into the mid 90's, but the 91 MPH in his late season MLB start will probably get knocked around from time to time.  I think his command is pretty good for his age, so if he can continue to refine that I think he's got a pitch mix that plays as a starter.  If his command stagnates then it's probably dicey, but that's where his youth is still working for him.

Good deep dive into some pitch level numbers.

The statline of his debut in Detroit looks ok, but Woods Richardson almost got knocked out in the first inning in that game. You could say he settled down after that, but he also continued to give up a lot of hard contact. I will stay out of the prediction business, but I am confident predicting he won't be as good as Berrios. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

7 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Go look through what pitchers are quoted as throwing at the draft and check in to see their velocity 3 years later. Draft velocity will almost always be higher.

go look where

[Schmoeman5]

6 hours ago, laloesch said:

I don't think he'll be remotely close to a #1.  I expect a 4-5 starter at best and more likely a relief pitcher given his medicore fastball and lack of a strong out pitch.  

So quoting you, if he has a mediocre fastball and lack of a strong out pitch, why the hell would you want a pitcher like that coming out of the bullpen?

[DocBauer]

I don't hold 2021 against him at all. Like most everyone, he missed 2020 entirely, then was jumped to AA ball immediately, and then was bouncing all over the globe with the Olympics. So while I wasn't a fan, and had no idea what to expect for 2022, I was hopeful. 

I can't and won't deny his performance last season. Really, really good despite being so young, pitching at 2 levels, and also missing time due to covid. At 22yo, there is a pretty good chance he adds a little more muscle and his FB ticks up a little. He also seems to have a good feel for pitching to accomplish what he has thus far. And a solid 4 pitch mix is nice to have.

Then comes the proverbial BUT. Velocity isn't everything. Deception and control and messing with timing is still more important. And a really good change can "add" velocity to a FB. But if he continues to really sit around 90, and doesn't add some velocity somewhere, I think he's a #3 at best. He doesn't have to throw 95-97+. But 90 is pretty low in today's game against today's hitters and his other pitches would have to be pretty sharp to be anything better than a #3 type.

But again, he's only 22yo, and has a ton of room to grow, add MPH, harness and refine his curve and slider, and just get better and better. And it's not like I don't like the kid, or dismiss a really solid 2022. I just need to see more to feel he has any shot at being a front of the rotation guy, or a #3. But we need great #4 options as well at worst. 

 

[Mike Sixel]

6 hours ago, ddubbl1 said:

I hope he develops into a great pro pitcher, but is the double last name really necessary? It looks ridiculous on the back of Twins jersey. Pick one or the other. Just like celebrities that insist on using their full name (with middle name), it's effing stupid and annoying. Do what you want in St. Paul, but if you get called up, ditch the Woods please.

This isn't a real post, right? You want him not to use his actual last name, why?

[tony&rodney]

10 hours ago, ddubbl1 said:

I hope he develops into a great pro pitcher, but is the double last name really necessary? It looks ridiculous on the back of Twins jersey. Pick one or the other. Just like celebrities that insist on using their full name (with middle name), it's effing stupid and annoying. Do what you want in St. Paul, but if you get called up, ditch the Woods please.

This is humor right? 

Is this Randball?

[tony&rodney]

The comments largely suggest that Woods Richardson can be a good MLB starting pitcher, but he faces the challenge of competing with command and control as opposed to stuff. Seems fair. He will need to keep the ball off the barrel.

When I watched SWR pitch with St. Paul he looked like he controlled the at bat, which is a difficult advantage to quantify. The reality is that savvy and composure does still work at the highest level. I was surprised by how easily Woods Richardson carved his way through a lineup without wowing with his pitches. We will be watching him this year to see his continued progress.

[jimbo92107]

His overhand delivery should help him mask his changeup. However, far more important to his impending career is a good nickname. SWR...I swear, it won't cut it. Simeon Woods Richardson can produce several solid nicks, including of course Sim, Woods, Woodie, Rich, etc. Does he already have a nickname, or must we create a new one?

[sweetmusicviola16]

I for one really like this guys name. First of all Simeon is cool. Then the rest of it is neat too. SWR. Spell it out: S W R That is unique. Or if you say out SWR together in one breath no one else in the game has anything that compares. Keep the whole name.

As for SWR as a prospect in this spot? Prielipp is better. Elite and should be at #4. Prielipp #4 and right on the outside of top 100 in MLB. 70-80 healthy  IP in 2023 and he will be Top10 in MLB.  But SWR I think has a good shot at being a solid #4 ML SP. Rooting for him.

[D.C Twins]

17 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

So quoting you, if he has a mediocre fastball and lack of a strong out pitch, why the hell would you want a pitcher like that coming out of the bullpen?

This!  There were multiple comments (and Law I think) that mentioned a transition to the bullpen. If he can through 3-4 pitches ranging average-slightly above average...with a low average FB velo, he is a starter (with MLB vs. no MLB or position in the MLB rotation in question).

Great bullpen arms have 1 or 2 plus pitches and not much else.... that is not him (and long relievers have gone the way of the dodo)

[old nurse]

On 2/10/2023 at 9:19 AM, Minny505 said:

Engaging in a little "scouting the stat line", his peripherals didn't really change from pre-2021 to 2022...except one.

His GB% went up about 10 percentage points, a 30-ish% increase. That's impressive! It led to both a lower BABIP and HR rate.

Was it luck?

If he can maintain stay close to a K/IP and a BABIP around 44%, he should be able to carve out a decent MLB career as a SP. 

babip of 44% is horrid

[ddubbl1]

On 2/10/2023 at 10:18 AM, DJL44 said:

Which one of his parents do you suggest he disrespect?

 

Flip a coin. You dont see the latino players using all 5 of their names when they have that many!

[Parfigliano]

On 2/10/2023 at 8:59 AM, LA VIkes Fan said:

You and me both, Mike. They also project Louie Varland at 4.19 in 129 innings. Interestingly, none of the regular 6 starters are projected below a 3.78 ERA or for more than 156 innings.  The projections I saw in the Athletic are:

Gray - 3.79, 123 innings

Lopez - 3.92, 156 innings (most)

Ryan - 3.91, 150 innings

Mahle - 3.78 (best), 133 innings

Maeda - 4.24 (worst of top 6), 83 innings (fewest of top 6)

Ober - 4.00, 90 innings

Winder - 4.82 (highest overall), 80 innings (fewest)

Varland - 4.19, 129 innings

SWR - 4.26, 108 innings

Interesting stuff. I think probably pretty close to reality for the top 6 except that I think Ryan will be closer to 170 innings and a 3.5 ERA, and Gray will be closer to 150 innings with a 3.5 ERA. Would be thrilled with the predicted performance for Varland and SWR in MLB innings and ERA, a little disappointed if Ober isn't below a 4.00 ERA. Otherwise, these look pretty right on to me. 

When they do these projections do they take into consideration the Twins/Rocco 2 times through the line-up plan?  That is to say would they be different under a different philosophy?

[Mike Sixel]

46 minutes ago, ddubbl1 said:

Flip a coin. You dont see the latino players using all 5 of their names when they have that many!

You should be embarrassed.

[Halsey Hall]

He threw live batting practice yesterday.

[se7799]

On 2/11/2023 at 1:11 AM, jimbo92107 said:

His overhand delivery should help him mask his changeup. However, far more important to his impending career is a good nickname. SWR...I swear, it won't cut it. Simeon Woods Richardson can produce several solid nicks, including of course Sim, Woods, Woodie, Rich, etc. Does he already have a nickname, or must we create a new one?

Richie Woods?  

[Squirrel]

9 hours ago, ddubbl1 said:

Flip a coin. You dont see the latino players using all 5 of their names when they have that many!

Stop it ... this is about how he pitches. If he's good who cares about his last name. Find another forum to complain about this non-issue.

[Danchat]

I'm torn on SWR... the raw numbers are good, but the scouts aren't high on him due to command issues and his stuff not being great. I just want to see some Twins-developed starting prospects break into the rotation and keep their job... in my time observing Twins pitching prospects, approximately one prospect has lived up to my expectations as a starting pitcher (Berrios). Please, SWR and Varland, change this! Break the cycle of futility!

[Minny505]

15 hours ago, old nurse said:

babip of 44% is horrid

I agree 

[Mike Sixel]

14 hours ago, Danchat said:

I'm torn on SWR... the raw numbers are good, but the scouts aren't high on him due to command issues and his stuff not being great. I just want to see some Twins-developed starting prospects break into the rotation and keep their job... in my time observing Twins pitching prospects, approximately one prospect has lived up to my expectations as a starting pitcher (Berrios). Please, SWR and Varland, change this! Break the cycle of futility!

100% sure you would have seen Varland and/or Ober do so this year, had they not traded for Lopez.