Keith Law's top 20 Minnesota Prospects

[Squirrel]

If you have the Athletic, you can read it here:

https://theathletic.com/4156345/2023/02/09/twins-top-20-prospect-farm-system-ranked/

Here are his top 10. You'll have to subscribe to see his write ups on each and for the 11-20.

1. E Rod
2. Lee
3. Lewis
4. Martin
5. Salas
6. Julien
7. Balazovic
8. Prielipp
9. Schobel
10. SWR

[Steve Lein]

Was just going to start a thread on this myself!

Surprises for me are Martin at #4, Julien at #6, and Balazovic still at #7. These are guys I typically think Keith Law would be down on a lot more than this. That's encouraging, I think.

I think I have a bias toward Salas, as I didn't really care he was added to the trade for Pablo Lopez. Lopez was the one pitcher from Miami I didn't want if Luis Arraez was the guy being traded. I still feel that way, but understand why the Twins would make the trade with Salas included.

[Doctor Gast]

Law is still too low on Lewis, too high on E Rod (too soon) & much too high on Balazovik.

[chpettit19]

I enjoy Law. He's my go to prospect guy, along with Fangraphs. Not because I think they're smarter than anyone else, or their rankings are better, but because they just have generally lower grades (especially FV) on everyone. Kind of keeps me grounded in my excitement over guys. We read so much about these guys and what they "could be" that I think we tend to start overestimating them (sometimes significantly) because of all the hope we have for the future of the Twins. Law and Fangraphs tend to ground that with less "best case scenario" type reports.

I was surprised to see him so high on Martin, but it does make a little sense. He had the same concerns before last year (Martin not trying to hit the ball hard, but instead just trying to not strike out and slap it into right), but gives him some credit for his end of season change in approach/swing. If you actually read the reports in there he's not actually as high on guys as just looking at the rankings may suggest. 

He gives Balazovich a pass for the season due to his knee injury early. Not sure I agree with that, but also doesn't seem outrageous. He's like everyone else on Prielipp, lost in no man's land. He gives his changeup a 55 grade which makes me even more excited about him. But acknowledges we just don't know who he is after the surgery. Let's all cross our fingers!

He loves the ceiling on E Rod, and that makes me excited. But I still don't quite understand his stance on Lewis. He bumps him for not being a SS anymore (Correa is here now), but seems to think the bat is likely to produce like we saw last year. Sounds like he'd have him much higher if he knew he was going to play CF moving forward, but doesn't think he's as valuable if he's at 3B. Which makes sense, but I wonder where he'd have him ranked amongst the rest of the 3B prospects. Cuz he has some awfully high. But I'm glad to see national folks saying they believe his bat is for real.

[DJL44]

29 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Law is still too low on Lewis, too high on E Rod (too soon) & much too high on Balazovik.

I hope he's right about #1 because Lee looks like a stud which would make Rodriguez a future All-Star.

[Mike Sixel]

Clearly an overly optimistic Twins fan given his ranking of Salas and Prielip......

I do miss reading his stuff, as along with fangraphs I think he writes well and acknowledges he isn't always sure. I don't think he's right on Lewis. Assuming Lewis plays about 80 games in center, he's super valuable. 

[Linus]

Boy is he down on Wallner. It will be interesting to see if he is right. 

[tony&rodney]

Law watches a ton of baseball. He has been a good read for awhile, although i still miss John Sickels and his work.

When a scout or a writer who evaluates prospects, like Law, watch a guy play they see a snippet of who that player is. The bat speed, getting fooled, crushing balls, etc. all plays into each person's evaluation. Emmanuel Rodriguez has been getting a pile of love but all have been saying he will need to show himself this summer as the real deal. Law accurately points out that Lee does not possess the superior athleticism of many high draft choices while stating that his feel for the game should make him really good, just not a super star. Wallner has shown his faults to all who have seen him and Law is miffed about how the big guy can overcome those weaknesses, yet he still rates him high enough to be believable. I look for Law's work regularly and compare his analysis of players on other teams. I would say he has a pretty decent approval for the top eight guys even if they each have something left to prove. Then again, all prospects and rookies have plenty to prove.

[Dman]

I thought Law gave good honest evals for his rankings.  I agree with others that I was surprised he kept Martin where he was for the most part.  He clearly thinks Martin's wrist hasn't been healthy and feels his and others initial evaluations from the draft have him as an elite contact hitter and he obviously still believes his initial assessment of the player is correct.  Have to give him props for hanging in there with initial evals and not falling for possible growing pains.  He might be the only one. I know I am losing my confidence in Martin but as all us prospect watcher's say let's see if he can break out this year.

Again he hangs with Balazovich who from past evals I didn't think he was overly sold on.  I thought for sure he would drop him maybe even out of the top 20 as I thought in the past he always questioned Jordon's ability to repeat his delivery and maintain his control.  Seemed like a told ya so moment, but he passed on it. So yeah definitely confused by him giving those players the benefit of the doubt but if they were injured then he has a solid point.

I thought his eval for Lee was spot on.  I too question Lee's ability to get to his power and short isn't likely his long term home.  He still liked Lee's eye and bat and I do as well.  Number 2 isn't bad.  Still I was surprised he jumped Rodriguez to number 1.  I haven't really got to see Rodriguez play so hard to evaluate anything but the numbers.  It seems those who have seen him play though come away impressed and Law is no exception.  On paper he looks like a five tool player in right field with an elite OBP percentage, plus power, plus arm, plus runner and fielder.  The only player that could rival him at this point would be Lewis who Law is undecided on giving him the number 3 spot and not including him in the top 100.  

I know he is kind of low man on Wallner but I am with him there to some degree.  Wallner has improved his eye at the plate getting the walks he needs to offset the K's but there is still a lot of contact missing Swings in Wallner's stroke and he will see fewer fastballs at the MLB level.  Just ask Larnach and Kirillioff.  Has to find a way to get better contact on pitches other than fastballs.  Still Wallner is starting to make me a believer.  He improved his eye the plate now he just needs to work on contact.  Hopefully this is the year it all comes together.

While he ranked him at 19 I thought he gave De Andrade a nice review.  He certainly views him more favorably than I do.  

Lot's of guys in our system that need better quality contact.  Law was kind to a few guys with down years.  Will be fun to see what these guys do this year.