Twins Daily 2023 Top Prospects: #7 Connor Prielipp, LHP

[Jeremy Nygaard]

There's been so much written about Connor Prielipp here since he was drafted just over six months ago. The thing about Prielipp, is that, unlike so many others in his draft class, Prielipp has yet to officially throw a professional pitch. And despite our penchant for covering all the angles on every prospect, it would be hard to believe we've ever given this much press to anyone else without a single throw.

But there's a good reason for this.

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

Age: 22 (DOB: 1/10/2001)
2022 Stats (Alabama): DNP
ETA: 2025
2022 Ranking: NA

National Top 100 Rankings
BA: NR | MLB: NR | ATH: NR | BP: NR

What's To Like?
Video games have the ability to build players. You get so many attribute points that you can disperse into the creation of a player. Connor Prielipp might be a great example of that player you would build. 

 

Naturally, you'd love to probably make that perfect pitcher 6' 5' and 230 pounds, but you don't want to use too many of your points there, so you make him Prielipp's size (6' 2", 210) to avoid the stigmatism of only being six feet tall. And you make him left-handed because the lefty is always going to get a few more chances than a right-handed pitcher.

Then you start dabbling with pitch-mix. While a 100 mph fastball might be nice, you've realized it's not all about velocity anymore. So you bump that down to the low-to-mid 90s with deceptive movement because you're smart enough to know that the results will be better anyway. Since it's a video game and the only way you're really fooling anyone is with a breaking ball, you take all the attribute points you saved on your (sneaky good) fastball, and put them into your slider. With a speed that nears 90 mph and a spin rate over 2,900 rpm, you've equipped your build-a-prospect with an elite pitch. You're not crazy, so you kept some points to give your guy a change-up because if you're going to make it to The Show as a starter, you need that third pitch.

You also know that through development, you'll get plenty of time to work on the finer points of pitching - control, fastball command, and working on that third pitch. Your ceiling is super high. So high, in fact, that Baseball America has your prospect as their projected #1 starter of your team three years into the future.

That last part isn't even some trick. It's the truth. Connor Prielipp has the tools and potential to be the real deal.

What's Left to Work On
Yeah, so what I didn't tell you was you got extra attribute points because I saddled your build-a-prospect with a few less-than-ideal traits.

Connor Prielipp has a "grew up in the cold of the midwest" background. The track record of those types isn't long or great. While Wisconsin isn't a hotbed for pitchers, it's not a death wish either. There are actually three pitches in the Hall of Fame who were born in Wisconsin. (So what they were all born in the 1800s?) And Brad Radke too! It's entirely possible that baseball hasn't advanced to the point (yet) to realize that beer and cheese are actually what helps pitchers develop. But, whatever, Wisconsin is great. So are the people.

The biggest question mark about Connor Prielipp is his left elbow. Between the COVID shutdown and Tommy John surgery, Prielipp threw a grand total of 28 innings over seven starts since graduating from high school. At a minimum that will make you pause. At a maximum, you realize this prospect is almost entirely about projection.

Because while the tools are present, there is no track record; no sustained success. So there's literally nothing to not work on.

What's Next
To throw. In a game. To live hitters of another team.

Prielipp participated in Instructional League, which, to my knowledge has taken on a more development-type camp than game-play. But for all intents and purposes, there were no setbacks and he was full-go.

With the restructuring of the minor league system and what I'm sure will be a slow play to increase innings, it would be hard to believe that Prielipp will be throwing every five days all season. What would make sense is a slow build-up, staying in Ft. Myers after the teams break to keep working his way back. A piggyback approach where he throws three innings regularly and throws 60-65 innings between low-A and high-A over the course of the year would make a ton of sense. If the development stays on track and the arm stays healthy, maybe there's a discussion to open it up a little more for a late-season promotion to Wichita. 

The Twins can and absolutely should do everything they can to develop Prielipp into an important member of their big-league starting rotation, but that's going to require a ton of patience and good health.

And if those things happen, Prielipp isn't the Twins #7 prospect next year. He's going to be a Top 20 prospect globally.

Previous Rankings
Honorable Mentions
Prospects 21-30
Prospects 16-20
Prospects 11-15
Prospect 10 (Austin Martin)
Prospect 9 (Louie Varland) 
Prospect 8 (Jose Salas) 

 

 

 

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[miracleb]

I have bought into the hype!  Loved getting him where we did in the draft!  Can't wait to see some minor league box scores for him!

[Dman]

So far he Prielipp is living on past results.  He has looked elite in the past but we have no idea what his arm can take at this point.  I am hoping that the Twins found a top of the rotation lefty with tons of bat missing stuff.  Still he could just be a two pitch pticher that ends up in the pen.  We should know more after his first year but it will likely take up to his second year to know if the gamble paid off.

If the arm holds up I have to believe he can be a difference maker but will have to wait and see.  I liked the pick when they made it and still like it now.  I believe he will be back just have to wait and see how it all plays out.

[TwinsDr2021]

He needs to get innings in this year (and be real good) and then fly though the system next year so that he is knocking on the door of the majors late next year or early 25, otherwise he just turns into another25 year old pitching prospects that nobody feels comfortable giving a starting job to. (He could be one of those rate pitchers that really take off in their mid to late 20's because of how little he actually has pitched, but again that is very, very rare)

Good luck to him!

[Karbo]

So much hype and promise for a guy that hasn't even pitched an inning in the minors yet. Seems a bit high in the rating to me.

[Doctor Gast]

I get the hype & the Twins desperate need for a in house, front-line SP. But until he actually takes the pro mound & produce, I wouldn't rank him this high.

[Fatbat]

If he is more than just hype, he should be in the big show mid 2024 or penciled in starting in 2025. He will still only be 24 yrs old with a fresh arm.  What a great draft pick!!

[Nashvilletwin]

Boy, lots of “ifs” in these rankings up to this point.  I’m beginning to understand why the ranking entities don’t love our prospect list all that much relative to other team’s. Do we have at least one sure fire, above average, every day starter major leaguer up to this point yet? 

So, Connor projects as an ace, a solid starter, a reliever, or a bust. Sounds like a lot of others - except for the “ace” part, which we really do not have anywhere in the system. Therefore, that increases his overall probability weighted ROI by a lot. But the lack of IPs means the range of outcomes is very high too.

Let’s see what have at the end of the year. But, I for one love that we have someone with true ace, difference making upside in our system - that is worth the risk and merits the current ranking..

[mikelink45]

I can't see it.  After he pitches this year I will have something to hope for, but video games, like fantasy, just don't translate to the real world.  I am delighted he has so much potential, but this is the top ten of our prospects and so far it is not giving me lots of hope.  The last ones on the list I am not even speculating on - obviously Lee and Rodriguez and I would assume Lewis is still a prospect - I guess reading TD hasn't filled in the last three names for me so I will be curious.  
 

I do think this is a fun exercise and allows for debate.  

[RJA]

I know I sound like the Grinch after questioning where Salas was placed (Law has him 5 in his ratings, and Gleeman 8-12 in his ratings), but I have to make the same argument here.  This rating is based only on potential and comes after a major surgery.  I LOVE this kid's potential, but boy there is zero track record.  Still, I hope and expect he will do well.

[HrbieFan]

65 innings would be kid gloves! If he has healed correctly and built his arm strength back to what it was, 100 innings should be the goal.  Watched him pitch some games in HS, he was a man amongst boys. Now he needs to show it in the pros

[big dog]

Law has Prielipp at #8. Looking forward to seeing how he does this year, that's for sure.

[tony&rodney]

Well, #7 is lucky which may mean that Connor Prielipp is our best prospect.

[Trov]

For a college arm he is about as much of a wild card you can get.  We have little to nothing to judge him on other than SSS and high school.  I am not hyped on him until I see something.  Many top college arms full fizzle out quickly in pro ball, but then there are the diamond in the roughs that come up.  He is neither so lets just wait and see, hopefully he can become a valued starter, or at worst a lefty out of the pen. 

[LastOnePicked]

How does a player who hasn't pitched to a single professional batter, and has as you note pitched just 28 innings over seven starts in the last three years, possibly register in the top ten? I'm very, very confused.

Project-ability in dicey for any organization, but for the Twins it's practically a prospect death sentence. If he seemed work the risk, fine, but this FO doesn't have much to show for its pitching gambles and the fact that injuries are the defining aspect of his career so far doesn't inspire confidence that we'll ever see him on the mound at Target Field.

Here's hoping they know what they're doing in helping his recover and develop. But it also makes me wonder where Chase Petty would have placed.

[Dave The Dastardly]

Desperate Twins fans clutching at straws. What's next, junior high pitchers from Kalamazoo?

[DJL44]

I think someone has complained in every thread that each prospect rates too high. They can't all rate too high.

[chpettit19]

I don't know where the right place to rank Prielipp is. He's got "best prospect in the system" upside, but hasn't thrown in a professional game yet. I'm ok with this general range of ranking. He may be the single most important prospect the Twins have right now.

He was in line to be the #1 overall pick in the draft last year had he not been hurt. He's the 1 guy in the system with a real chance to be a true #1 starter. He's everything we've been asking for out of a Twins pitching prospect. But he hasn't thrown a pro pitch and may never be that guy again...

There were good reports out of his time in instructs last year. I hope they're aiming more for a controlled 80-100 innings pitched than 60 this year. But he's the guy we need to cross our fingers and hope he hits his ceiling. He changes this whole franchise if he does.

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Boy, lots of “ifs” in these rankings up to this point.  I’m beginning to understand why the ranking entities don’t love our prospect list all that much relative to other team’s. Do we have at least one sure fire, above average, every day starter major leaguer up to this point yet? 

So, Connor projects as an ace, a solid starter, a reliever, or a bust. Sounds like a lot of others - except for the “ace” part, which we really do not have anywhere in the system. Therefore, that increases his overall probability weighted ROI by a lot. But the lack of IPs means the range of outcomes is very high too.

Let’s see what have at the end of the year. But, I for one love that we have someone with true ace, difference making upside in our system - that is worth the risk and merits the current ranking..

Outside of the top 20 rankings are a guess. The players will be ifs. A successful team is not going to have the number of high end draft picks these ranking system loves. Thus a system will be lower. That does not mean a system that is low in talent. The Arraez types do not show up on these lists. 

[old nurse]

29 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I think someone has complained in every thread that each prospect rates too high. They can't all rate too high.

I think someone has complained in evert thread. That is what a lot of people do

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Genuinely surprised by the comments here. Yes, Prielipp is almost all upside. But the overall stable of prospects has been depleted over the last couple years with trades and graduations. 

But discounting him because of his lack of track record isn't completely fair. There's a reason he was the #1 starter in the best conference in college baseball. There's a reason he had success in his limited time there.

Dylan Lesko was also projected to be a top pick in the 2022 draft before his season was cut short by Tommy John. Baseball America has him ranked #79 overall in baseball. Prospect rankings are always looking for potential.

Sure, this could end poorly and he could never live up to his billing as a top prospect in the system. But no other pitcher in the organization has the ceiling he has and that counts for a lot here.

There were 10 writers that submitted prospect rankings. Prielipp was #4 on half of them... so he was much closer to being #4 overall than not being in the Top 10.

As far as innings go... sure, maybe it's closer to 100. The innings he is destined to throw on the back field in a very controlled setting under many watchful eyes are going to happen - and not count towards the total. If he does that for 3 weeks instead of going to an affiliate, his innings count will look different than if he goes north immediately. But, either way, the organization will have a plan to help him increase those innings in a way they feel comfortable with.

 

 

 

[MMMordabito]

TNSTAAPP

For me, it's a fool's game to say much more than that cliche acronym on Prielipp.  Wait and see approach on this one.

Kohl Stewart, ya fooled me once.

Tyler Jay, ya fooled me twice.

I won't be fooled again!

 

[Mike Sixel]

50 minutes ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

Desperate Twins fans clutching at straws. What's next, junior high pitchers from Kalamazoo?

Literally in the top ten by every rating agency. Are they all twins fans?

This is the kind of chance a team should take. A player with great talent that fell in the draft due to injury. 

[Mike Sixel]

What a pile of negativity. 

[jmlease1]

I thought this was a really smart draft pick. there's definitely risk attached here, but the upside is immense and when you nail a sure thing with your first round pick there's room to add some risk/reward with your second rounder. I expect he'll spend several weeks at the complex in Ft. Myers, but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him moved over to A-ball (which is conveniently in ft. Myers as well). they'll watch his innings carefully, but he's an exciting pitcher with serious upside.

he might not come back all the way from injury, he might be a guy who gets hurt a lot and never lives into the talent. but there's no guarantee that will happen. It's just one risk factor, and weighed against his potential, I think it's a great pick and when you consider the ceiling he makes a lot of sense here.

[Steve Lein]

The reason Prielipp is this high on the list without having thrown a pitch yet and only 28 innings in college, is because of the potential and ceiling he has (MLB.com has him #4 in the Twins system). It's a lot higher than every other pitcher in the organization, in my opinion, and he ranks higher than this on my own list for that very reason. Doesn't guarantee anything, but that's the fun with these rankings!

As has been mentioned, without his injury he was going to be a top 5 pick because of a devastating slider and fastball that's better than being made out here (mid-90s peak velocity from a lefty is a lot less common than it is for righty's).

The thing I'll be watching for with Prielipp this season is how his command and control have kept up after the surgery. If he's not walking many people and stays healthy, he's going to be a lot higher up this list and global lists hopefully as soon as midseason.

[saviking]

Let's just hope his injury history is behind him or he could wind up in the pen like Duran. I will be interested to see how he performs this year but only time will tell. For now, he's a hype pitcher. Maybe by the end of this year he will be projectable ..

[roger]

I don't have a clue what the future holds for Prielipp.

But I continue to ask/wonder why the Twins can't have one of their picks shock the world.  You know, like the Acuna kid in Atlanta who became a star at 20 years old.  Or like Chris Sale, who was pitching for the Sox the year after being drafted.

So I ask, why can't Prielipp be that special player?  Why can't he rocket thru the organization to the Twins?  Granted, coming off TJ it is unlikely he makes it this year.  But can he make it to AA and pitch for the Twins in early 2024?  

Why can't the Twins have that young star like so many others?  And yes, it could be Prielipp.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, roger said:

I don't have a clue what the future holds for Prielipp.

But I continue to ask/wonder why the Twins can't have one of their picks shock the world.  You know, like the Acuna kid in Atlanta who became a star at 20 years old.  Or like Chris Sale, who was pitching for the Sox the year after being drafted.

So I ask, why can't Prielipp be that special player?  Why can't he rocket thru the organization to the Twins?  Granted, coming off TJ it is unlikely he makes it this year.  But can he make it to AA and pitch for the Twins in early 2024?  

Why can't the Twins have that young star like so many others?  And yes, it could be Prielipp.

It's still the offseason so hope is still flowing steadily for me. I'm a little greedy and am hoping Lee debuts this year and Prielipp in 2024. Why not have 2 guys who had a chance to be top 5 picks in 2022 both bust out quickly and take this franchise to another level?

[Nashvilletwin]

31 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Outside of the top 20 rankings are a guess. The players will be ifs. A successful team is not going to have the number of high end draft picks these ranking system loves. Thus a system will be lower. That does not mean a system that is low in talent. The Arraez types do not show up on these lists. 

Completely agree. We for sure will have someone (probably a couple, if not several) who will “hit” among our list to-date. That always happens.

My point was more that here we are through #7 and no one yet seems like a sure bet to be a regular starter.  Someone who we could look at and say “yep, that guy is pretty much a can’t miss major leaguer”. If I had to choose one up to now, I’d probably pick Varland.