It’s a Make Or Break Year for Jorge Polanco

[Cody Pirkl]

The Twins previous core continues to be dismantled as young players continue approaching the MLB and veterans fizzle or get shipped out of town. For Jorge Polanco, 2023 may have a huge bearing on his future with the Twins.

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

 

Jorge Polanco has been with the Twins through good and bad. Debuting in 2016, he's been a part of some of the most irrelevant and prolific teams in recent Twins history. At 29 years old and under team control through 2025 with a very affordable contract, he could still be around for some time. 2023 will have a lot to do with this possibility, however.

Polanco has been up and down the last few years, being a great regular in 2019 before an ankle injury made him something of a non-factor in 2020. In 2021, he was arguably the best player on the team, but in 2022, he missed significant time and wasn’t quite the same player on the field. It’s hard to argue that Polanco is currently very valuable to the team, but he may have to become a more well-rounded player in order to cement his future in Minnesota.

It would be surprising to see Jorge Polanco struggle offensively in 2023. A switch hitter, he’s certain to be an everyday player, as regardless of the opposing pitcher he can take advantage of platoon splits. His slash line of .235/.346/.405 could be considered a down season by his standards, but when compared to the league average, he was still 19% above offensively. It’s easy to bet on Polanco being 15-20% above league average again in 2023, but it’s his defense that may determine his future.

Polanco ranged from below average to horrendous defensively depending on the defensive metric in 2022. His -9 Outs Above Average was better than only two players who qualified at 2B across the entire league. His -1 Defensive Runs Saved was certainly passable, but context matters. With multiple infield prospects capable of playing second base knocking on the door of the MLB, Polanco needs to finally be the second baseman we all hoped he could be.

Injuries may have played a part in Polanco’s defensive struggles, though there isn’t really much evidence to the theory that it cost him defensively. In 2021, when Polanco played 152 games and put up a career year, he was worth -10 Outs Above Average with a more impressive 3 Defensive Runs Saved. Even that positive 3 isn’t what you’d expect from a former shortstop who’s moved to second base.

Sprint speed is a good way to judge a player's health in a given year. Typically in seasons riddled with injury, sprint speed declines. In 2020, Jorge Polanco was visibly taking half swings all season as he hobbled on an ankle that required surgical repair in the offseason. He posted a career-low 27.8 average sprint speed. In 2022, Polanco’s average sprint speed was the highest it had been since 2019. In regard to second basemen, he actually improved from 30th by sprint speed in 2021 to 22nd in 2022, and for players of his same age, he was the 14th fastest player by average sprint speed. It’s possible that his knee and back issues affected his defense, but playing through injury certainly isn’t reflected at least in this metric. The fact that his 2022 defensive measures mostly match his healthy 2021 doesn't paint a great picture either.

It’s possible that despite Polanco moving off of shortstop, where he was stretched, the defensive boost we expected simply isn’t coming. Since the position change, we have roughly 1,800 innings of data telling us that this is the case. With the shift ban debuting in 2023, it’s possible things will get even worse.

Polanco can play a less-than-ideal defense and still be a valuable contributor because of his bat, but the Twins have shown they aren’t interested in this mold of player. Look no further than recently-departed Luis Arraez. There are offense-needy teams throughout the MLB, and the Twins have shown that they don’t value players who accrue all of their value at the plate. With possibly two years and $22.5 million remaining on Polanco’s contract after 2023, several teams across the league would likely give up a good bit of value if they’re willing to tolerate shaky infield defense to boost their offense. The Twins love value.

Brooks Lee, Edouard Julien, Austin Martin, Royce Lewis. These are the players to watch in 2023. If they give the Twins any hope whatsoever of being able to provide close to Jorge Polanco’s level of value, the Twins will likely see him as expendable to improve the team elsewhere. If Polanco’s defense doesn’t improve in year three as a full-time second baseman, the possibility of one of these prospects meeting that threshold becomes very likely.

It’s a make-or-break year for Jorge Polanco. Do you agree?

 

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[Rod Carews Birthday]

I do agree that this is a make or break year for Jorge Polanco.  I also agree that may have much more to do with the kind of pressure put on by Royce Lewis, Austin Martin, Brooks Lee, Edouard Julien, et al.   If some of those guys start to force their way to the majors, Polanco becomes a logical candidate for trade, whether at the deadline this summer or next offseason.  His value should be pretty solid, with two years of control after this year, and at a reasonable price.  If he can be adequately (or superbly!) replaced by one of those players it will be time for the Twins to move on and cash in on any value that he has at that point. 

[oregontwin]

Offseason maybe. Trading now doesn't work any better than trading the unknown future if your goal is to win. We know what Polanco can contribute, not so much can be said of any replacement from the farm system. What could we get that would reall improve the team?

[SwainZag]

His defense has never been his strong point, but if he puts up numbers anywhere close to his 2021 numbers his job is safe.  Healthy Jorge is a Top 5 offensive 2nd baseman in baseball, and he's only 29.  Also very encouraging was his pitch selection last season, his 14.4% BB rate was nearly double his career average.  I'm betting on him bouncing right back into form.

[Brandon]

As established as Polanco is on the team.  He would need a bad year or be injured into next year to be traded or let go after the season.  The team still needs veterans and Gallo, Kepler and Taylor are free agents after the season.  There is 2 and a half spots in the OF for the young guys ready to come up.  also, 1B if Killeroff doesn't produce this year.  I think this is his make or break year.  I mean if Killeroff shows potential they may give him a chance next year too but....

[Doctor Gast]

Polanco is by far our best available 2B. Farmer is a good short term sub at 2B but he our insurance, could be needed more at the other positions. If managed correctly Polanco will stay healthy & produce well for the Twins.

Yet independently what Polanco does, his future (because of the addition of Correa) is now dependent on how soon Lewis is able to take over 2B. IMO they don't want to rush Martin or Lee & put them on the 40 man. Gordon & Julien are a poor substitutes. So Lewis could be ready by deadline if not '24. 

I agree with Cody Christie's article that Polanco is underrated & under appreciated especially now with Arraez remorse.

 

[Major League Ready]

No doubt the 4 WAR 2019 Polanco is a lot harder to replace than 1.8 WAR 2022 Polanco.   He could produce 3 WAR and still get traded but that's not likely until an heir apparent is identified.  How well Miranda does at 3B could also play into Polanco being replaced.  If he surprises us at 3B, Lewis or Lee could end up at 2B,  Of course, the return will also be a key consideration. 

The $22.5M for 2024-25 could come into play.   If Lewis / Lee / Martin or Julien can come to replacing his production, the extra dollars can be spent to make it a net gain plus we get prospects.   

[Blyleven2011]

I hate talking trades about someone other than Kepler , pagan   ...

When healthy Polanco hits and gets on base well and plays good defense ... 

We need his veteran leadership and he loves to play and play and play ...

He needs rest on occasion , but his mind doesn't tell him that , he plays through nagging injuries to much ...

I like Polanco and his approach to the game and I hope he has a great season  ...

[miracleb]

Unfortunately for Polanco, 2nd base is often a "catch-all" position where infielders without a position often end up.  Just like first base, we always have 5-6 candidates for the position.  That makes him less valuable than if he was a solid SS or centerfielder.  That is just how MLB works.

[weitz41]

I'm going to have to disagree on this being a make-or-break season for Polanco. 1st off I'm high on all the prospects named but to expect to go 4 for 4 on them being impact big leaguers is to way to optimistic even for me. Polanco has/is/will be an impact big leaguer at least for a few more seasons. No his salary isn't and shouldn't be a driving force to trade him. By WAR he brings excess value even in an injury filled season like 2022. With some of the contracts we saw this offseason he's a bargain 3-5 WAR player.

[mikelink45]

Not make or break - he has already made it.  He has established himself and yet he is not a star we cannot live with.  I advocated trading him last year and advocate that again if we can get something really good in return.  A package of Polanco and Kepler ought to have some market value and we do need to rebuild our prospect list and BP

[Cory Engelhardt]

Healthy ankles will make all the difference, but I do agree with this. I can see both him being here through 2025, as well as him being somewhere else in 2024. Both make sense.

IF the Twins value players who only have a bat (and not defense) I don't know how Julien can be listed as a replacement option.

Lewis and Lee though, and possibly Martin, all make sense as longer term replacements.

[specialiststeve]

I have said this in other posts but the Twins NEED to make him the full time DH. Great way to keep his bat in the lineup and keep him healthy. We have MANY options for middle infielders that would work.. Being a switch hitter no need to take his bat out.... just makes too much sense... at least to me. 

[MMMordabito]

😕

Longest tenured Twin.

Over 750 games well above league average OPS

All Star

Top 15 MVP Vote Finisher

$25 Million

Yeah, I'd say he's already made it, and he won't ever be broke (unless he is incredibly off-the-field stupid, which I doubt).

[ashbury]

If Polanco's glove proves to be the cause of his eventual departure, I wouldn't expect Julien or Martin to have long tenure here either.  Unless, as we hope for Miranda, they make big strides this season.

[chpettit19]

Polanco is an interesting piece for the Twins. I see him as both the most vital "X-factor" for the 2023 Twins, and the most likely high-end trade candidate for the 2023/2024 Twins.

They absolutely need him back to his old self offensively (and if he can combine his BA from earlier with his new found patience of 2022 this could be his best season yet!) to give them a legit top of the order, and an acceptable offense overall. There's way too many question marks at the bottom of the order that they need Correa and Polanco to be stars at the top (along with Buxton when he's healthy).

But he can also be the guy that brings back some real prospects if things play out a certain way with the Lee, Lewis, Martin, and Juliens of the world. I'd need to see an awful lot from multiple of those guys in the first half to think about trading Polanco at the deadline, but next offseason may be the end of the road for him with the Twins. Which would be a bitter sweet thing. He's been the best of the previous core and it'd be hard to see him leave. But, if the new core arrives this year the way we all hope, they'll have too many IFers and Polanco would be the obvious trade candidate for restocking the farm, and even freeing a little cash for a free agent starter (I can still dream they'd pay an arm!).

I don't see this as a "make or break" season for Polanco. Even in his down 2022 year he was still well worth his contract. For him to "break" means he completely fell apart and is a 1 WAR, or less, player. I don't see that happening at all. Polanco can be his typical top 10 2B in the league self this year and still get traded. His future with the Twins is far less dependent on him (unless you think there's a chance he's just toast and can't play anymore) than it is on the prospects. If they hit on multiple IF prospects it turns into being a better option for the org to trade him than pay him. That's just the cruel truth of professional sports finances.

[SF Twins Fan]

If Polanco stays with the Twins through the end of his contract that just means something serious happened with Correa or the three prospects that would take over his spot (Lewis, Lee or Martin).

Assuming Correa stays healthy, Lee and Lewis should be forcing the Twins hand by the end of this season to take over 3rd or 2nd base and potentially both.  

[farmerguychris]

I really don't know if Polanco has the ability to have a good enough year to keep him around beyond 2023.  This is not a knock on him, just a reflection of how much potential talent we have waiting to replace him in the near future that will be cheaper when we have needs other places (pitching?) that we might be able to trade him for.

 

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

I do not think this is a make or break year for Polanco.  He is one of our most patient hitters as he consistently works counts forcing pitchers to throw him hitable pitches while increasing their pitching counts.  After losing Arreaz, we need him in this capacity.  Being a switch hitter also helps keep our lineup from being too left-handed.

I really like Polanco and the MLB network analysts agree as I noticed he was around 5-7 in their top ten second basemen ratings.

We have the luxury of having several replacement candidates that are not quite ready to replace him.  Let's give them some more time to develop while harnessing Polanco's contributions for this year.  If they can no longer be held back, we can trade Polanco at the next deadline or at season end for prospects.  If this happens, I for one will be sad to see him go just like I was for Arreaz, but excited to see his replacement.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Of all the Twins concerns, Polanco is way, way, way down the list.  At worst we are talking a league average 2B, tenured, liked, and respected in the clubhouse, not outrageously expensive and still relatively young.

Oh by the way, there is no definitive replacement (young guys have shown nothing yet).

Make or break for Polanco?  Every projected lineup has Polanco in the top three spots.  Doesn't sound like make or break to me.

[Cris E]

His 2023 performance might make or break the Twins' season, but he's not in any danger. He's very good, fairly paid, he's one of the only proven power hitter on the roster, his recent dips in performance directly tie to injuries and there have been no reports that there's been any setback in recovering from them.  Every team loves having guys like this around. The fact that the Twins over-played him while he was hurt last year is not on him, as the playoffs drifted out of reach well before the end of the year and they kept playing him despite his injury.   His job is to work his therapy, meet the new guys, knock the rust off and be ready for March. There's no reason for him to be worrying about anything else.

[Cory Engelhardt]

5 hours ago, SF Twins Fan said:

If Polanco stays with the Twins through the end of his contract that just means something serious happened with Correa or the three prospects that would take over his spot (Lewis, Lee or Martin).

Assuming Correa stays healthy, Lee and Lewis should be forcing the Twins hand by the end of this season to take over 3rd or 2nd base and potentially both.  

Or, the prospects move to other positions. Or the prospects are traded. 

[GNess]

Polanco is an above average MLB player. I enjoy watching him. He is steady. However, as mentioned. Polanco plays a position where there seems to be a glut of quality options waiting to emerge. (Lewis, Julien, Martin, Lee etc.)

If the FO has confidence in that group moving Polanco may be smart to get a key piece at the deadline. That's assuming his performance is in-line with his career, and he's not just absolutely killing it as he did one or two seasons in the past. Then you ride him...

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Or, the prospects move to other positions. Or the prospects are traded. 

Yes, and we can also add ... or Polanco moves to 1B/DH. 

Let's not forget that Jorge has been the best overall Twins player of the last 4-5 years and he remains the best batter the team has with risp. 

[mikelink45]

It is interesting to see how he ranks on other lists - he is number 10 on just baseball list.  MLB.com has him number 6.  Bleacher Report rankings has him #`13.  I like to see outside opinions.

The Guardians Giminez and Altuve get the majority of top ratings. 

[Cody Pirkl]

On 2/9/2023 at 7:41 AM, weitz41 said:

I'm going to have to disagree on this being a make-or-break season for Polanco. 1st off I'm high on all the prospects named but to expect to go 4 for 4 on them being impact big leaguers is to way to optimistic even for me. Polanco has/is/will be an impact big leaguer at least for a few more seasons. No his salary isn't and shouldn't be a driving force to trade him. By WAR he brings excess value even in an injury filled season like 2022. With some of the contracts we saw this offseason he's a bargain 3-5 WAR player.

It won't take going 4 for 4 on the prospects. If one or two look like possible MLB contributors it gives the Twins something to think about. Also I pointed out within that his salary is incredibly affordable and didn't imply that would be a reason to trade him. Luis Arraez was affordable too however.

[Cody Pirkl]

21 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Of all the Twins concerns, Polanco is way, way, way down the list.  At worst we are talking a league average 2B, tenured, liked, and respected in the clubhouse, not outrageously expensive and still relatively young.

Oh by the way, there is no definitive replacement (young guys have shown nothing yet).

Make or break for Polanco?  Every projected lineup has Polanco in the top three spots.  Doesn't sound like make or break to me.

Polanco isn't a concern, but if they feel his defense is costing them, they start to look at him as expendable. We've seen that play out several times with this regime. We just watched them trade Luis Arraez who was also well liked and cheap. There's no obvious replacement behind him at 1B other than hoping Kirilloff is healthy and good, Gallo coming in from the OF to play there, or Miranda going back.

I think people underestimate this front office's willingness to trade off pretty much anyone if they feel like they can replace them and get good value out of it.

[Cody Pirkl]

23 hours ago, farmerguychris said:

I really don't know if Polanco has the ability to have a good enough year to keep him around beyond 2023.  This is not a knock on him, just a reflection of how much potential talent we have waiting to replace him in the near future that will be cheaper when we have needs other places (pitching?) that we might be able to trade him for.

 

Exactly. Polanco is a great player on a reasonable deal. If after 2023 they feel like they can fill 75% of Polanco's value at 2B with one of the prospects and trade Polanco for a really good deal, history says there's no way they wouldn't do it. There aren't too many untouchables on the Twins roster in my opinion.

[Major League Ready]

41 minutes ago, Cody Pirkl said:

Exactly. Polanco is a great player on a reasonable deal. If after 2023 they feel like they can fill 75% of Polanco's value at 2B with one of the prospects and trade Polanco for a really good deal, history says there's no way they wouldn't do it. There aren't too many untouchables on the Twins roster in my opinion.

That is how the Guardian's acquired Gimenez.  Obviously, Polanco is not the same caliber as Lindor but he only had 1 year left until free agency.   Sure would like to make that kind of deal!  I am hopeful one of the prospects can equal or even exceed Polanco's production and we get a good return.  It's about time some of these things swing our way.

[Cody Pirkl]

5 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

That is how the Guardian's acquired Gimenez.  Obviously, Polanco is not the same caliber as Lindor but he only had 1 year left until free agency.   Sure would like to make that kind of deal!  I am hopeful one of the prospects can equal or even exceed Polanco's production and we get a good return.  It's about time some of these things swing our way.

Agreed. Nobody wants to part with good players, and Polanco is a good player. Luis Arraez was a good player too though, and it takes a good player to get good players back.