Twins' April Schedule Could Decide Fate of the 2023 Season

[Peter Labuza]

The thing is following the standings in April is pretty pointless no matter what. If we get through May with good standing or a winning record that will be what to watch for.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Peter Labuza said:

The thing is following the standings in April is pretty pointless no matter what. If we get through May with good standing or a winning record that will be what to watch for.

Weren't the AL Central standings at the end of May 2022 just about as pointless as you are saying the standings at the end of April 2023 will be?

[Brandon]

wiith 29 games, I'll go with 18-11.  I thought about 20-9 but i subtracted 2 due to my over optimisim.  18-11 sounds about right.  I wouldn't blame you if you thought 17-12.  but I dont see how they are any worse if the team is relatively healthy.

[Cody Christie]

5 hours ago, Karbo said:

At least they have a better chance of being healthy in April, and hopefully they can hold their own against NY and Hou.

I think there are still question marks around players like Kirilloff and Mahle. Will they be ready for April? Kirilloff's surgery is rare for professional athletes, so his workload will be something to watch this season. I'm interested to see what Mahle looks like in spring training. Is his shoulder back to full health?

[Original_JB]

All things being equal, I'd rather play these "most talented" teams early in the season, before they build momentum and get on a roll. I believe we have a better shot of winning while guys are still fine tuning and managers are still sorting out their day to day gameplans. Everything is a bit more volatile early in the season, try to take advantage of it.

[Nine of twelve]

5 hours ago, Cody Christie said:

Those were my predictions, but they can certainly be swept in all the games versus the Astros and Yankees.

And the Twins can certainly sweep all the games.

[Nine of twelve]

I don't know that I would describe playing the Sox and the Sox as a "bad" part of the schedule. Neither team finished over .500 and the Red Sox are thought by many to have a weaker team than last year.

[LastOnePicked]

4 hours ago, August J Gloop said:

HOU didn't go 6-0 against the Twins last year because they're a good team and the Twins were a bad one. It was just a fluke of baseball that they didn't wind up 2-4 in those 6 games.

Not sure how long you've been watching the Twins, but their performance against top MLB teams over the last few years might not best be described as a "fluke." Sometimes they're outgunned. Sometimes they're overmatched. Often they're out-managed. But always they play scared, like they expect to lose. And then they go and make those expectations a reality. It's not an accident at this point, it's a part of their team culture. Their record against the Yankees isn't an anomaly, and 0-18 in the postseason isn't just some crazy accident of fate.

[Schmoeman5]

8 hours ago, Cris E said:

I don't want to say it's irrelevant, but there are a lot of other things that are going to matter more than the April record. Our team health, any injuries in Chicago that expose their lack of depth, how Cleveland plays are the first three that will have more impact than a couple games either way with 85% of the schedule to play. If the Guards jump out to a 19-10 record or something then we're in a hole regardless of how we play. A collapse in Chicago could have them selling vets by the all-star break, and we could be seeing the school buses full of youngsters here by June if Correa, Grey and Buxton all hit the DL early.

The fact is we'll play KC and Detroit so many times and they probably won't be good at any point in the year. Miami and WAS and PIT and the rest of the scrubs shouldn't change a bunch over the season, but you never know when some rookie is going to burst on the scene and make one of them dangerous. Still, it's nice to have a couple cupcakes to build confidence while things are settling out, and it's nice to get the Yankees out of the way so they don't mess with momentum later in the year. But the fate of this season starts and ends in the trainer's room. 

Who are the scrubs and cupcakes? The Twins have a lot of question marks themselves. Maybe they're in the scrub/cupcake category. I hope not, but if injuries hit or the pitching, starters and the pen struggle or the offense can't score runs. Then they're not going to be scaring a whole lot of teams.

[Cris E]

If our starting rotation is Grey - Lopez - Mahle - Ryan - Maeda we've got good depth, and strides have been taken with Gallo and Taylor to fix the OF depth and Farmer to add infield flexibility to prevent a repetition of 2022's vulnerability to injury. We should never field a team as bad as last August's. When we roll into DET or KC or PIT or WAS or even CIN it's clear we won't be the underdogs very often even if we do suffer some injuries. 

[Cody Christie]

3 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

And the Twins can certainly sweep all the games.

If the Twins sweep the Yankees, the earth might fall off its axis 😆

[Cody Christie]

3 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

I don't know that I would describe playing the Sox and the Sox as a "bad" part of the schedule. Neither team finished over .500 and the Red Sox are thought by many to have a weaker team than last year.

It went with the theme of the post. For the Good, I picked the teams the Twins should be able to beat. For the Bad, I picked the teams that were about the same as the Twins. For the Ugly, I picked the teams expected to be better than the Twins. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

4 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

Their record against the Yankees isn't an anomaly, and 0-18 in the postseason isn't just some crazy accident of fate.

Actually it kind of is.  That 0-18 record against the Yankees was compiled over MANY years by many different groups of players on both the Twins and Yankees teams.  It is an anomaly if any team wins 18 in a row over another in baseball and winning them over a period of years is even more so.  Baseball just doesn't work like that. At this point that record is kind in people's heads -- perhaps even more for fans than for players.

I'm not saying that the Twins team will be some sort of juggernaut this year and go blasting through the regular season at record pace, but I do think if reasonably healthy they are certainly improved over last year's team.  Remember in baseball, the worst teams win about 40% of their games and the best ones win about 60% of their games. 

[David HK]

I herby predict the Twinks will finally rid themselves of the BOFTY (Bend Over For The Yankees) syndrome, and also pound the Astros to win all three series. 6-3!

Then get swept by the Marlins and Nats.

[davidborton]

Just 3-3 against WSox and RSox in early April? I want some of that in Vegas.

[Cody Christie]

23 minutes ago, davidborton said:

Just 3-3 against WSox and RSox in early April? I want some of that in Vegas.

Both teams project to be about the same level as the Twins. The White Sox disappointed last year, and should be slightly better. The Red Sox have some question marks, but they aren’t as bad as they were in 2022.

[Nine of twelve]

9 hours ago, Cody Christie said:

It went with the theme of the post. For the Good, I picked the teams the Twins should be able to beat. For the Bad, I picked the teams that were about the same as the Twins. For the Ugly, I picked the teams expected to be better than the Twins. 

That means you are saying the Twins are bad. I think it might have been better to use a different theme. Or no theme at all, just straight-up analysis.

[old nurse]

18 hours ago, Cody Christie said:

Not meant to be clickbait. They have a tough schedule in April and that was the point of this story. The 2021 team did terrible in April and didn't recover. Some teams get off to a great start and it carries them throughout the season. There are ebbs and flows to a 162-game season and getting off to a good start can help.

It certainly looks like clickbait. The ebbs and flows is your predicting how the season will go within the story and comments

[Cody Christie]

1 hour ago, Nine of twelve said:

That means you are saying the Twins are bad. I think it might have been better to use a different theme. Or no theme at all, just straight-up analysis.

Most projection systems have the Twins as a .500 team or below. I wouldn't call them good at this point. If they stay healthy, they should outperform their projections, but there's a lot of uncertainty entering the season. 

[twinsfansd]

All I have to say is if the players go into the season with this attitude, the season is over before it starts. What a poor attitude to take into a season. 

[Nine of twelve]

28 minutes ago, Cody Christie said:

Most projection systems have the Twins as a .500 team or below. I wouldn't call them good at this point. If they stay healthy, they should outperform their projections, but there's a lot of uncertainty entering the season. 

A brief internet search found that the over/under lines on the Twins' 2023 win total ranged from 80.5 to 84.5. This may not be "good" but I certainly wouldn't call it "bad". I do agree that the Twins have a high level of uncertainty.

Two disclaimers: One, this is not close to a detailed analysis of the relative strengths of MLB teams on my part. Two, while betting lines are based on the analyses of knowledgeable people, they are also highly influenced by wagers placed or expected to be placed by bettors. Most fans tend to bet on their favorite teams and usually tend to have optimistic views of their favorite teams. Accordingly, in most cases the betting line will be set a bit higher than the casino experts' actual evaluations.

I don't gamble on sports but if someone gave me money and told me I had to use it for a wager based on the above lines I would bet on the over for the Twins.

[Peter]

I’ll take 15-14 with difficult schedule with Yankees/Astros/Red sox! If we go 16-14 17-12 even better. Division won’t we decided in April as it’s going to be war against every central division team. We have better team then last year and 86-88 wins maybe E out with this long shot possibly even under .500 could. Can’t wait for season to start. It’s going to be exciting competitive season!!! Let’s go twins!!!

[Whitey333]

It doesn't really matter about the April schedule.  To me it does for for others I guess not.  We will be told time and time again when they lose that it's a marathon and not a sprint.  Doesn't that just fry you?  The implications from that and many of the comments here on TD are that the games don't matter.  Sure when they win in April and early may everyone is excited.  When they go on a losing streak it's like who cares the games don't matter this early in the season.  Yes they could have been 2-4 against the Astros but they weren't.  They were 0-6.  You can't change that.  Yes it's a long season and I will follow them throughout but wins and losses in April I think still add up at the season ending totals.  Or has that changed?  I actually think they will hold their own in April.  The games will count regardless, I think.

[Craig Arko]

I’m so grateful Spring Training begins soon. Some helpful reality, one way or another.

[LastOnePicked]

10 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Baseball just doesn't work like that. At this point that record is kind in people's heads

That's exactly what I'm saying, yes. It's in the culture of the organization. It's the small-dog mentality that runs through the team: "We aren't good enough. We aren't talented enough. Something bad is going to happen. We can't survive under the pressure." That's why I've been adamant on changing the coaching staff and the organizational culture through mental conditioning as well as physical conditioning. Injuries to Mauer, Morneau and our incredible pitching prospect Francisco Liriano gutted the morale of the team in the late 2000's/early 2010. Repeated injuries to Buxton have done much the same in the late 2010's to 2020's. Add to that, Rocco is an excuse-generating machine. He looks like a beaten stray during press conferences.

When the Twins have no pressure, they tend to play fairly well. Look at the difference in 2021. People expected them to build on the gains from 2019 and 2020, and then they came out of the gate and face-planted. Often in the late innings. Once they were completely out of the playoff picture, they began to play some decent baseball. Then they got off to a nice start in 2022, only to completely collapse once pressure was reapplied. They looked like absolute roadkill against the Dodgers, Yankees, Guardians and Astros, and again lost games late very often.

And maybe the injuries increase the stress, while the increased stress makes the injuries more likely. This team fails under pressure, and it has for twenty years. It can't be a fluke when you take two of the top closers in MLB (Colome and Lopez), make them the Twins closer, and they totally, utterly fall apart.

It's not a fluke, but you're right - it IS in people's heads. And that's precisely what's got to change with this team.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

One game at a time. Even though it is a long grind, take each game one day at a time, then forget it and play the next game. Each game in April, is just as important as any other game. Live for the moment. Concentrate on each pitch, each play, each moment. There is a reason it is called "the present". The standings will take care of themselves.

[NotAboutWinning]

Is anyone talking about how the rule changes will affect the early season? I think younger teams would have the advantage initially since more of their players are familiar with the pitch clock. If you watched Varland or SWR work last year, their faster pace was apparent and very much part of their pitching style. The effect will diminish over time but I think it will a factor in April.

[Cody Christie]

4 hours ago, NotAboutWinning said:

Is anyone talking about how the rule changes will affect the early season? I think younger teams would have the advantage initially since more of their players are familiar with the pitch clock. If you watched Varland or SWR work last year, their faster pace was apparent and very much part of their pitching style. The effect will diminish over time but I think it will a factor in April.

That's certainly an interesting thought. Hopefully, the veterans will work through some of the kinks during spring training.